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Goal scoring 2009-10 season, WHO and How many ???

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Old
07-24-2009, 05:24 PM
  #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doughty Number 8 View Post
This is the most ridiculous argument I have ever seen.

Do you not understand the concept that 30 goals is a meaningless standard? The fact is that whether they pass a totally arbitrary marker is irrelevant, as long as they have similar production (+/- 2-3 goals), you can say that it was similar goal production.

Is that really a hard concept? Or are you just being difficult like so often

Oh wait, you have to be the board pessimist. As least Captain Ron uses logic and sometimes sees the light.
Do you realize that I wasn't the one who set the parameters?

If you use specific terms in your arguments like "statistically significant", you better be willing to back them up - I'm guessing that you haven't had enough math to justify your statement. Are they statistically significant? It's not worth doing the math to satisfy someone who wouldn't know the difference anyway, but +/- 3 goals is 10% of the total - chances are that it is statistically significant.

I'm stating facts - you're giving opinions. Learn the difference.

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Old
07-24-2009, 05:33 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSP View Post
Do you realize that I wasn't the one who set the parameters?

If you use specific terms in your arguments like "statistically significant", you better be willing to back them up - I'm guessing that you haven't had enough math to justify your statement. Are they statistically significant? It's not worth doing the math to satisfy someone who wouldn't know the difference anyway, but +/- 3 goals is 10% of the total - chances are that it is statistically significant.

I'm stating facts - you're giving opinions. Learn the difference.
Tell me this. Would you say there is a big difference between someone scoring 29 goals and someone scoring 30 goals? That is only a 3% difference in goal scoring. 3%. When you are talking about roughly 220 goals being scored, that 1 goal is .4% of a difference. I can safely say that having a 29 goal scorer vs. having a 30 goal scorer, all other things being equal of course, will make no difference to your club.

Therefore, we can say that the arbitrary number of a "30 goal scorer" is pretty irrelevant, rather, we can talk about 30-ish goal scorers (IE players that score anywhere from 28-32 goals). That is the only really meaningful way to talk about it.

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Old
07-24-2009, 05:45 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doughty Number 8 View Post
Tell me this. Would you say there is a big difference between someone scoring 29 goals and someone scoring 30 goals? That is only a 3% difference in goal scoring. 3%. When you are talking about roughly 220 goals being scored, that 1 goal is .4% of a difference. I can safely say that having a 29 goal scorer vs. having a 30 goal scorer, all other things being equal of course, will make no difference to your club.

Therefore, we can say that the arbitrary number of a "30 goal scorer" is pretty irrelevant, rather, we can talk about 30-ish goal scorers (IE players that score anywhere from 28-32 goals). That is the only really meaningful way to talk about it.
But 27 is only one goal away from 28!

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07-24-2009, 05:47 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DapperDan View Post
But 27 is only one goal away from 28!
That's why it is pretty stupid to talk about there only being a certain amount of 20, 30, etc. goal scorers in the NHL. Because any sort of number we throw out there is totally irrelevant and arbitrary (why is 30 any more of a "milestone" than 29? Because it ends in a 0?"). Also, other premises in this thread are stupid. You have to look at a team holistically in order to actually make any real predictions. Looking at a team player by player is ludicrous

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07-24-2009, 05:47 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DapperDan View Post
But 27 is only one goal away from 28!
Well as long as we are estimating I think a guy who scores 25 goals should be considered a 30 goal scorer....I mean it's only 5 goals.

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Old
07-24-2009, 05:51 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Ron View Post
Well as long as we are estimating I think a guy who scores 25 goals should be considered a 30 goal scorer....I mean it's only 5 goals.
Why stop there? 22 goals is just as good. I mean it's only one Calder away from 30...

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Old
07-24-2009, 05:57 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DapperDan View Post
Why stop there? 22 goals is just as good. I mean it's only one Calder away from 30...
So, basically what you are saying is that there were really 101 players who were 30 goal scorers last season......I think it is all becoming clear now.

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Old
07-24-2009, 06:05 PM
  #58
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Kopitar will hit 30 this year....Its all but guaranteed. Remember how bad he played at the beginning of the season?? I remember him having like 4-5 goals in the first 25 games of the season and he still nearly hit 30....I think he gets close to 40

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Old
07-24-2009, 06:08 PM
  #59
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Try running your "one goal is arbitrary and irrelevant" theory by the Florida Panthers - I think they might disagree

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Old
07-24-2009, 06:22 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSP View Post
4 - 30 goal scorers
DET PHI
3 - 30 goal scorers
WAS
2 - 30 goal scorers
ANA ATL CGY NJD
OTT PIT SAN STL
1 - 30 goal scorer
BOS BUF CAR CLB DAL FLA
PHX TAM VAN CHI NAS LAK
and 7 teams with no 30 goal scorers
I carried it out just a tad further ... but did show if a player was CLOSE to a 20 goal scorer
and being that we're mainly conserned with being one of the Playoff teams, used them as my guideline ...

2008-09 Play Off Teams
===================
WEST
San Jose Sharks
#12 Patrick Marleau 38g
#16 Devin Setoguchi 31g
#19 Joe Thornton 25g
#8 Joe Pavelski 25g
#9 Milan Michalek 23g
#29 Ryane Clowe 22g
(6 @ 20+ ; 2 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Detriot Red Wings
#81 Marian Hossa 40g
#93 Johan Franzen 34g
#13 Pavel Datsyuk 32g
#40 Henrik Zetterberg 31g
#26 Jiri Hudler 23g
#37 Mikael Samuelsson 19g *close to 6th player
(5 @ 20+ ; 4 @ 30+ ; 1 @ 40+)

Vancouver Canucks
#22 Daniel Sedin 31g
#14 Alexandre Burrows 28g
#17 Ryan Kesler 26g
#33 Henrik Sedin 22g
#38 Pavol Demitra 20g
#42 Kyle Wellwood 18g *
(5 @ 20+ ; 1 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Chicago Blackhawks
#19 Jonathan Toews 34g
#24 Martin Havlat 29g
#10 Patrick Sharp 26g
#88 Patrick Kane 25g
#32 Kris Versteeg 22g
#36 Dave Bolland 19g *
(5 @ 20+ ; 1 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Calgary Flames
#13 Mike Cammalleri 39g
#12 Jarome Iginla 35g
#21 Olli Jokinen 29g
#22 Daymond Langkow 21g
#17 Rene Bourque 21g
#25 David Moss 20g
(6 @ 20+ ; 2 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

St Louis Blues
#22 Brad Boyes 33g
#42 David Backes 31g
#7 Keith Tkachuk 25g
#21 Patrik Berglund 21g
(4 @ 20+ ; 2 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Columbus Blue Jackets
#61 Rick Nash 40g
#18 R.J. Umberger 26g
#20 Kristian Huselius 21g
#29 Jason Williams 19g *
(3 @ 20+ ; 1 @ 30+ ; 1 @ 40+)

Anaheim Ducks
#10 Corey Perry 32g
#9 Bobby Ryan 31g
#8 Teemu Selanne 27g
#15 Ryan Getzlaf 25g
(4 @ 20+ ; 2 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

EAST
Boston Bruins
#81 Philip Kessel 36g
#73 Michael Ryder 27g
#91 Marc Savard 25g
#28 Mark Recchi 23g
#46 David Krejci 22g
#12 Chuck Kobasew 21g
#26 Blake Wheeler 21g
#33 Zdeno Chara 19g *
#17 Milan Lucic 17g *
(7 @ 20+ ; 1 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Washington Capitals
#8 Alex Ovechkin 56g
#28 Alexander Semin 34g
#52 Mike Green 31g
#21 Brooks Laich 23g
#19 Nicklas Backstrom 22g
#14 Tomas Fleischmann 19g *
(5 @ 20+ ; 3 @ 30+ ; 1 @ 40+ ; 1 @ 50+)

New Jersey Devils
#9 Zach Parise 45g
#26 Patrik Elias 31g
#15 Jamie Langenbrunner 29g
#19 Travis Zajac 20g
#14 Brian Gionta 20g
#23 David Clarkson 17g *
(5 @ 20+ ; 2 @ 30+ ; 1 @ 40+)

Pittsburgh Penguins
#71 Evgeni Malkin 35g
#87 Sidney Crosby 33g
#17 Petr Sykora 25g
#14 Chris Kunitz 23g
#11 Jordan Staal 22g
#13 Bill Guerin 21g
#81 Miroslav Satan 17g *
(6 @ 20+ ; 2 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Philadelphia Flyers
#17 Jeff Carter 46g
#12 Simon Gagne 34g
#19 Scott Hartnell 30g
#18 Mike Richards 30g
#22 Mike Knuble 27g
#15 Joffrey Lupul 25g
(6 @ 20+ ; 4 @ 30+ ; 1 @ 40+)

Carolina Hurricanes
#12 Eric Staal 40g
#15 Tuomo Ruutu 26g
#13 Ray Whitney 24g
#8 Matt Cullen 22g
#59 Chad LaRose 19g *
#26 Erik Cole 18g *
(4 @ 20+ ; 1 @ 30+ ; 1 @ 40+)

New York Rangers
#80 Nik Antropov 28g
#91 Markus Naslund 24g
#13 Nikolai Zherdev 23g
#23 Chris Drury 22g
#24 Ryan Callahan 22g
(5 @ 20+ ; 0 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

Montréal Canadiens
#27 Alex Kovalev 26g
#46 Andrei Kostitsyn 23g
#14 Tomas Plekanec 20g
#20 Robert Lang 18g *
(3 @ 20+ ; 0 @ 30+ ; 0 @ 40+)

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Old
07-24-2009, 06:46 PM
  #61
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The thing is, this team has the realistic potential to have four 30 goal scorers next year: Kopitar, Frolov, Williams, and Brown. All those guys are young enough and not far removed from previous 30 goal seasons in which they played with less talented linemates.

I understand the realist point of view. Not many teams have two 30 goal scorers, much less four. But you can't deny that if everything clicks, and the injury bug leaves the team relatively healthy, we could see a goal scoring explosion next year with these top four guys.

Smyth, in my opinion, is good for 20 but a little too old to realistically think he could put up 30 again. Stoll, despite his one flash in the pan 68 point year, has yet to be that same offensive dynamo after his concussion issues. However, he would have cracked 20 last year if it wasn't for the groin injury at the end of the season. He put up his best numbers since the concussion last season, actually, which is certainly promising.

Things I see different with the top four guys, though:

Kopitar: he's going to start the season in shape; this will be huge for him.
Frolov: contract year; enough said.
Brown: no premature births this year, as long as he doesn't knock up his wife again.
Williams: he's going into his first season healthy since his last big year in 06/07, minus any fluke injury this summer

Also, toward the end of last year a lot of broadcasters were commenting on how in sync the Frolov-Kopitar-Williams line looked. That line has so much ridiculous potential it's disgusting.

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Old
07-24-2009, 08:44 PM
  #62
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Sorry, a Rough graph, but a graph that indicates that 10-20 goal scorers were responsible for the majority of our scoring.

But the difference was only 1 goal compared to 20-30 goal scorers.



See, the NHL average was that most of the goals were scored by 10-20 goal scorers. So I think that the kings need to A) get 1 more 30 goal scorer and B) improve 10-20 goal scoring

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Old
07-24-2009, 09:33 PM
  #63
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What is the left side of each graph?

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Old
07-24-2009, 09:39 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSP View Post
What is the left side of each graph?
The Left is the total number of goals scored

I probably should have made this clearer, but the X-axis is the segmented 40+ goal scorers, 30-40, 20-30, 10-20, 0-10 (the metrics for the NHL graph vs. the kings graph are different, the Kings graph is 30+, 20-30, 10-20, 0-10), and the Y-Axis is the amount of goals scored. Probably not a good line graph, in fact. I will put bar graphs instead, I dont think a line graph is the correct way to put it at all.





Last edited by LAX attack*: 07-24-2009 at 09:45 PM.
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Old
07-24-2009, 09:46 PM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doughty Number 8 View Post
The Left is the total number of goals scored

I probably should have made this clearer, but the X-axis is the segmented 40+ goal scorers, 30-40, 20-30, 10-20, 0-10 (the metrics for the NHL graph vs. the kings graph are different, the Kings graph is 30+, 20-30, 10-20, 0-10), and the Y-Axis is the amount of goals scored. Probably not a good line graph, in fact. I will put bar graphs instead, I dont think a line graph is the correct way to put it at all.
Try it in spanish.

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Old
07-25-2009, 01:46 AM
  #66
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i'm gonna say,


Frolov: 36 Goals
Kopitar: 31 Goals
Brown: 27 Goals
Smyth: 24 Goals
Williams: 22 Goals(If healthy)
Stoll: 18 Goals
Handzus: 17 Goals
Simmonds: 15 Goals
Purcell: 12 Goals
Ivanans: 1 Goal
Lewis: 3 Goals
Richardson: 1 Goal

D-Men:
Doughty: 11 Goals
Johnson: 14 Goals
Scuderi: 1 Goal
Greene: 1 Goal
OD: 0 Goals
Drewiske: 1 Goal
Harrold: 3 Goals

238 Goals

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Old
08-02-2009, 04:01 PM
  #67
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Frolov: 35
Kopitar: 32
Brown: 29
Smyth: 27
Williams: 26
Stoll: 24
Handzus: 22
Simmonds: 11

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Old
08-02-2009, 04:43 PM
  #68
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Frolov: 36
Kopitar: 31
Brown: 26
Smyth: 24
Williams: 22
Stoll: 19
Handzus: 17
Simmonds: 14
Purcell: 12
Lewis: 5
Richardson: 3
Ivanans: 2

Johnson: 15
Doughty: 11
Harrold: 5
Greene: 1
Scuderi: 1
O'Donnell: 0
Drewiske: 0

244 Goals

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Old
08-02-2009, 06:04 PM
  #69
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Just a little OT stat...http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm...wName=goalsFor

We definitely need more scoring to make the playoffs this year. Conversely, our 5 on 5 scoring most improve the most if we are to have a chance in hell at doing anything remotely good this year.

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Old
08-02-2009, 07:11 PM
  #70
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we just did this didnt we?? why must we do the same things over and over again

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Old
08-02-2009, 07:59 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jwm1986 View Post
we just did this didnt we?? why must we do the same things over and over again
YES well ... http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=666439 ... it got pushed ALL the way back to page 2 you know, and I guess the search feature was broken for this guy ?

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Old
08-02-2009, 08:32 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by TeamPlayer View Post
What are your predictions for the upcoming season for each player on this team For GOALS ONLY?
Did you go to every team and post this thread.

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Old
08-02-2009, 08:35 PM
  #73
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Did you go to every team and post this thread.
Well...his name ain't TeamPlayer for nothing







sorry, my bad. I couldn't resist

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