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James Neal's New Contract

View Poll Results: What will Neal's next contract pay him per year?
No Contract - Player Traded 0 0%
$1 to $1.5 million 0 0%
$1.5 to $2 million 7 36.84%
$2 to $2.5 million 4 21.05%
$2.5 to $3 million 5 26.32%
$3 to $3.5 million 1 5.26%
$3.5 million + 2 10.53%
Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

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08-13-2009, 09:44 AM
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James Neal's New Contract

The next free agent Iíd like to look at is James Neal.

Neal will be a (soon to turn) 23 year old Restricted Free Agent next summer and will not be arbitration eligible. I believe he will have similar statistics next year scoring 20+ goals but less than 30, he could see a small rise in assists and points, and his ice time will probably be pretty similar.

At 23, Loui Eriksson (coming off a 14 goal/ 31 point regular season performance and a solid showing in the playoffs) signed for $1.6 million a year for 2 years ($1.5 and $1.7 million). I believe Nealís goal production (and the fact that he should repeat it) earns him a higher contract.

At 24, David Backes (coming off a 13 goal/ 31 point season) signed a 3 year, $2.5 million a year offer sheet. Offer sheets donít really reflect the true value of a player, but Backes and Neal are very similar. Plus, Neal should have 2 seasons of goal totals nearly double of what Backes was able to score. If Neal received an offer sheet, it would be higher than $2.5 million IMO.

My guess for Nealís contract is 3 years in the $2 to $2.5 million range.

I have to admit my primary motive of polling Stars fans on playersí contracts is to calculate a ridiculously early cap charge. Based on projections plus the 5% bump option by the NHLPA, next yearís cap could be $52.5 million.

I figured it was safe to assume Jamie Benn and Ivan Vishnevskiy will make the 2010-11 Dallas Stars.

Dallas Starsí Salary Cap Information

Brad Richards$7,800,000
Mike Ribeiro$5,000,000
Brenden Morrow$4,100,000
Loui Eriksson$3,750,000
Jamie Benn$821,667
Brian Sutherby$812,500
Sean Avery$1,937,500
Mike ModanoUFA
Jere LehtinenUFA
Fabian BrunnstromRFA
Steve OttUFA
James NealRFA
Krys BarchUFA
Toby PetersenUFA
Forward Total:$24,221,667

Trevor Daley$2,300,000
Karlis Skrastins$1,375,000
Mark Fistric$1,000,000
Ivan Vishnevskiy$821,667
Jeff Woywitka$650,000
Stephane RobidasUFA
Nicklas GrossmanRFA*
Matt NiskanenRFA
Andrew HutchinsonUFA
Defense Total:$6,146,667

Marty TurcoUFA
Alex AuldUFA
Goal Total:$0

Team Cap Hit:$30,368,334

BigG44 is offline   Reply With Quote
08-13-2009, 09:49 AM
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i voted 3-3.5 million.

neal has a chance to get buried some on the roster to limit his points and production. but hsi play won't let him stay down long.

even if he does not get the points, his agent will be able to find someone to pay him 3-3.5mil.

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08-13-2009, 10:58 AM
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If he repeats his production from last season, he should end up with a slightly better deal than Eriksson's last deal. Probably somewhere close to $1.8M or $2M. If he improves a good bit on last season, he could end up in the $2M to $2.5M range. Since he has no arbitration rights, the only way he will get substantially more than that is if he gets an offer sheet or scores 35 goals/60 points or something like that.

Most of the time, the Stars have only given NHL players coming off their ELC 2 years deals. Daley, Grossman, Ott, and Lundqvist all got 2 year deals. Fistric broke that model with his 3 year deal, but I think that one could fall in the category of too good for the team to pass up. And who knows what Nieuwendyk philosophy will be going forward...

I love Neal, but I think a small sophomore slump will be hard to avoid. So, I'll guess a 2 year at $1.9M cap hit. That's about 20% more than Eriksson's last deal.

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08-13-2009, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by map94 View Post
Probably somewhere close to $1.8M or $2M. If he improves a good bit on last season, he could end up in the $2M to $2.5M range.

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