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Old
08-14-2009, 11:36 AM
  #51
Larry44
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Originally Posted by DinkusMaximus View Post
Doesn't matter if you're taking a guy 44th overall or 242nd overall. You expect him to play up to the level of that pick and the other players picked around him then. When you don't play to that level of expectations their is great disappointment because they could have had someone else with that pick. Theres a reason they invest that much money into scouts. They try to get the best players available at that pick to try and steal the dark horse. Kiprusoff was taken 116th overall and Lundqvist was picked 205th overall. So they know talented players can indeed be had at that position in the draft. They don't exactly expect him to develop into those players, but the goal is to land the bet guy available there. They could have had Nathan Gerbe at that pick. So it doesn't matter where the pick is, if that player doesn't play up to the expectations of that position in the draft you get soured on him. A GAA that high and Sv% that low is a failure for a goaltender at that level even in the ECHL. Not to mention he's turned in those numbers season after season. With numbers like that I'm sure they've already written them off.
I think you're WAY overestimating what teams expect to get out of the draft. You spend a lot of time and money scouting players then take players on Draft Day based on a variety of considerations. Some are longshots - you're hoping to hit the jackpot on a player who comes from nowhere (Maroon, Downie, Giroux). Others are solid JR or college players you know can stock your minor league system and maybe develop into NHL players.

Look up any of the many analyses that have been done and realize that teams only expect to get one, maybe two, NHL regulars out of any given draft. The percentage of players who are drafted who ever play in the NHL is very low.

Duchesne got drafted on his play in Jr., PLUS his bloodlines. His dad Gaeten played over 1000 NHL games. I'm sure Simon Nolet knew him. It was a gamble that a solid but unspectacular goalie in the Q would turn out to be a pro like his dad.

Hasn't happened yet and no big deal. I'm sure the team has written him off, and rightly so. You only have, realistically, room for 2 NHL goalies, 2 AHL goalies (maybe three), and one in the ECHL. If you're not in the top 6, you're history.

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08-14-2009, 02:09 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
I think you're WAY overestimating what teams expect to get out of the draft. You spend a lot of time and money scouting players then take players on Draft Day based on a variety of considerations. Some are longshots - you're hoping to hit the jackpot on a player who comes from nowhere (Maroon, Downie, Giroux). Others are solid JR or college players you know can stock your minor league system and maybe develop into NHL players.

Look up any of the many analyses that have been done and realize that teams only expect to get one, maybe two, NHL regulars out of any given draft. The percentage of players who are drafted who ever play in the NHL is very low.

Duchesne got drafted on his play in Jr., PLUS his bloodlines. His dad Gaeten played over 1000 NHL games. I'm sure Simon Nolet knew him. It was a gamble that a solid but unspectacular goalie in the Q would turn out to be a pro like his dad.

Hasn't happened yet and no big deal. I'm sure the team has written him off, and rightly so. You only have, realistically, room for 2 NHL goalies, 2 AHL goalies (maybe three), and one in the ECHL. If you're not in the top 6, you're history.

I'm not over estimating. Like I said, I don't think anyone expects players to develop into those guys, but at the same time they're looking to get the best player available at that time. If the player they picked doesn't at least play up to the ability of the rest of those players selected in that round they're going to sour on him and move on.

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08-14-2009, 02:38 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by DinkusMaximus View Post
I'm not over estimating. Like I said, I don't think anyone expects players to develop into those guys, but at the same time they're looking to get the best player available at that time. If the player they picked doesn't at least play up to the ability of the rest of those players selected in that round they're going to sour on him and move on.
I don't think it has anything to do with where they were drafted or who their peer group in the draft was - with the exception of 1st rounders - since scouts' reputations ride on not screwing those up.

I honestly don't think anyone in the organization has ever said, 'mmm, Duchesne isn't progressing as well as Gerbe.'

They WOULD say, 'mmmm, Duchesne isn't going to be an NHL goalie, let's cut him loose' or 'Duchesne isn't as good as Teslak, he's gone.'

They would only compare the players they've drafted with the other guys in the organization, whether acquired by trade or signed as UFAs out of college.

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08-14-2009, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by DinkusMaximus View Post
I'm not over estimating. Like I said, I don't think anyone expects players to develop into those guys, but at the same time they're looking to get the best player available at that time. If the player they picked doesn't at least play up to the ability of the rest of those players selected in that round they're going to sour on him and move on.
I don't think that an organization sours on a 4th round draft pick not being anything more than a AA player (even if he's a good AA player or not since a good AA player doesn't help out the organization at the top level, which is really all that matters). If anything all an organization expects from someone drafter in the later rounds is to be a minor leaguer, whether it be AAA or AA.

It's part of the business and the team moves on with other draft picks, which is evident by the fact that the majority of players drafted in the later rounds typically are not re-signed after their entry level contract expires. Case in point, Duchense was drafted in 2005, he didn't work out, so in the 5th round they've picked Riopel in the 2009 draft. If Riopel doesn't work out, then they'll draft someone else in a couple of years.

Drafting beyond the first couple of rounds is nothing more than playing roulette. It's pure luck and the more numbers you put your chips on, the more likely you'll get lucky. In this case Duchense didn't pan out. Maybe Riopel will or maybe he won't. I'm certainly not going to put my stock in a 5th round draft pick to be the future in net for any organization.

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08-14-2009, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by pelts35.com View Post
Case in point, Duchense was drafted in 2005, he didn't work out, so in the 5th round they've picked Riopel in the 2009 draft. If Riopel doesn't work out, then they'll draft someone else in a couple of years.
They won't need to if Morrison turns out to be the next superstar franchise goalie.....

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08-17-2009, 03:11 PM
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I personally think Riopel has the most potential of anyone in the farm system. Him not being drafted the year before really motivated him and he came back and lit the Q on fire, including breaking records. Despite this he falls to the 5th round, even more motivation. He sounds a ton like Giroux or Briere, their entire young careers they were undervalued and worked their butt off to prove people wrong.

I would not be surprised to see him starting for the Flyers in 3 years.

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08-17-2009, 04:06 PM
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I personally think Riopel has the most potential of anyone in the farm system. Him not being drafted the year before really motivated him and he came back and lit the Q on fire, including breaking records. Despite this he falls to the 5th round, even more motivation. He sounds a ton like Giroux or Briere, their entire young careers they were undervalued and worked their butt off to prove people wrong.

I would not be surprised to see him starting for the Flyers in 3 years.
Very lofty goals for a 5th round draft pick. There have been plenty of players who put up incredible numbers at a junior or collegiate level that could also peform at the next level (AHL), but couldn't perform at the highest level. Frankly, the odds of Riopel being the Flyer backup, let alone starter, are not very good. If he does become that type of goalie, he's the odd diamond in the rough that every team hopes to find every once in a while.

That said I don't think that comparing Riopel to Giroux or Briere is a fair comparison given that both of them were first round picks. Just how undervalued were they if they were picked in the first round?


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08-17-2009, 04:33 PM
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I suppose I should have researched Briere's juniors career a bit more - I was going off of his Versus commercial where he said everyone said he was too small for the NHL

Giroux on the other hand, I know that he barely even got a tryout for an OHL team.

I was comparing Giroux and Riopel because they were both undervalued due to their size. Giroux proved everyone wrong and lit the OHL on fire.... Riopel proved everyone wrong and lit the Q on fire. If Riopel had been 19 or 20 rather than 21 after that MVP in the Q season he would have been a first round pick. The age turned people off.

My point is that he has shown the same determination to prove people wrong that Claude did, and I, for one, think that that goes a longer way than natural born talent or any other factor that makes up an athlete. Hard work > all.

Oh, and, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting, nor would I be dissapointed if he isn't starting. I'm not putting high expectations on him, I am just saying I could see it as a definate possibility.

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08-17-2009, 04:41 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
My point is that he has shown the same determination to prove people wrong that Claude did, and I, for one, think that that goes a longer way than natural born talent or any other factor that makes up an athlete. Hard work > all.
For amateur athletes I agree 100%. NHL goal tenders need both in my opinion. You can't ever work hard enough to keep up with those guys with out a healthy amount of natural talent.

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08-17-2009, 04:52 PM
  #60
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Johan Hedberg praised Joacim Ericsson a lot when he saw him play this weekend.
I have faith in Sunshine.

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08-18-2009, 01:09 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
My point is that he has shown the same determination to prove people wrong that Claude did, and I, for one, think that that goes a longer way than natural born talent or any other factor that makes up an athlete. Hard work > all.
We can agree to disagree on that one. Talent absolutely trumps hard work IMO. A guy like Pavel Brendl never put in the effort at the junior and AHL level and lit those leagues up (and currently does very well in the European leagues without putting forth any extra effort). He wasn't willing to put forth the effort at the NHL level and still could have been a serviceable 3rd liner. Instead he opted for a bit more money in a European league where he can coast and still put up good numbers.

Hard work is nice and it might make a marginal AHL player into a 4th line NHL player, but hard work (in general) without natural talent isn't going to take a player to the first 2 lines.

Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez
Oh, and, I said I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting, nor would I be dissapointed if he isn't starting. I'm not putting high expectations on him, I am just saying I could see it as a definate possibility.
IMO you saying that Riopel "has the most potential of anyone in the farm system" is putting very high expectations on a 5th round draft pick. Most franchises would be thrilled if someone picked at his position turned into a Neil Little, Scott Munroe 3rd string goalie. Anything more than that would be an unexpected bonus.

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08-18-2009, 06:55 PM
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Okay, what goalie has more potential in your opinion in the farm system?

It's not like the Flyer's have great depth at that position in the minor leagues

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08-18-2009, 11:16 PM
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Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
Okay, what goalie has more potential in your opinion in the farm system?

It's not like the Flyer's have great depth at that position in the minor leagues
Eriksson and Backlund, for sure, and probably Morrison too, since the org. was high enough on him to pick him ahead of Bertilsson. And Emery's young too, so there may not be a need for a goalie for a long, long time.

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08-19-2009, 09:04 AM
  #64
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Okay, what goalie has more potential in your opinion in the farm system?

It's not like the Flyer's have great depth at that position in the minor leagues
I didn't realize that your comment "Riopel has the most potential of anyone in the farm system" followed by your Giroux and Briere comments meant that Riopel had the most potential of any goalie in the farm system (which, BTW, really doesn't mean much given that at times the farm goalies included the likes of Rejean Beauchemin, Martin Houle, Brian Regan, Bujar Amidovski, Dan Murphy, etc).

That said, here's a list of goalies drafted in the 4th round and beyond from 2000 to 2005 that have played a single game in the NHL (the reason I didn't go beyond 2005 is because not a single goalie drafted after in the 4th round and beyond have played in the NHL and not a single position player drafted beyond the 4th round in the past 2 years have played an NHL game). I'm not listing the ones that haven't played in the NHL, but they outnumber those that have played by at least 2 to 1 if not 3 to 1.

2000
Henrik Lundqvist (7th round 265 games)
Brian Eklund (7th round 1 game)
Adam Berkhoel (8th round 9 games)
Reinhard Divis (8th round 28 games)

2001
Ray Emery (4th round 134 games)
Dmitri Patzold (4th round 3 games)
Drew McIntyre (4th round 2 games)
Jussi Markkanen (5th round 128 games)
Mike Smith (5th round 98 games)
Andy Chiodo (6th round 8 games)
Pasi Nurminen (6th round 125 games)
Jordan Sigalet (7th round 1 game)
Cristobal Huet (7th round 224 games)
Martin Gerber (8th round 226 games)

2002
Rob Mcvicar (5th round 1 game)
Tyler Weiman (5th round 1 game)
Curtis McElhinney (6th round 19 games)
Frederik Norrena (7th round 100 games)

2003
Chris Beckford-Tseu (5th round 1 game)
Chris Holt (6th round 2 games)
Andy Chiodo (7th round 8 games - didn't sign with NYI in 01 and drafted by Pit in 03)
Gerald Coleman (7th round 2 games)
Brian Elliott (9th round 32 games)

2004
Karri Ramo (6th round 48 games)
Danny Taylor (7th round 1 game)
Martin Houle (8th round 1 game)
Yukata Fukufuji (8th round 4 games)
Pekka Rinne (8th round 55 games)

2005
Tomas Popperle (5th round 2 games)
Matt Keetley (5th round 1 game)


So, looking at the list there are 3 legitimate NHL starters (Lundqvist, Emery and Huet) and a few legitimate backups while the majority were injury call ups. That being I think you are in the minority who "wouldn't be surprised to see him starting" as the odds are very much against him. The odds are greater of him not even re-signing with the Flyers after his entry level contract is up than him playing in the NHL, let alone being a starter.

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08-19-2009, 10:12 AM
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Thanks for putting that list together. It illustrates your point very well. I guess everyone is always looking for the next Vokoun (a late pick who makes it). There are always going to be "examples" to illustrate a point like Rolosson who wasn't even drafted or Fleury who was 1st overall etc. The reality is that the ECHL and CHL and europe are all chock full of guys who were 5th and 6th round picks, but they are also full of guys picked earlier as well. I'm sure we all remember Ouellete and Pelletier both of whom were high enough to be a big deal.

Personally I would take it even one step further and say that no matter where a goalie is drafted the odds are stacked against them. You have 60 spots every year as a starter or backup and another 25 or so call ups. When you factor in how long some of these goalies are starters for it makes it tough to break in. How many Devil draft picks had much of a shot since Martin Brodeur came on the scene? Mason has "made it" but not with them. Goalie is just a tough spot to make it period as far as I'm concerned. Look at how many 1st rounders never make it.

I really don't care who of our current batch makes it, I just hope one of them does at some point. It would be great to hit a home run with someone and not have to worry about goaltending every single year. I definitely find myself pulling for this Riopel kid though. I love it when guys can make it against "all odds." Too small, passed over for a couple of drafts, drafted late when he was. It would make a great story. They say he is insanely hard worker off the ice, which I like.

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08-26-2009, 11:26 AM
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Out of sheer curiosity I decided to go and see who all has won MVP in the QMJHL. SOme of the name are pretty impressive like Crosby, Lemieux, Hawerchuk, Dennis Savard, Brad Richards etc. but there are also the Ramzi Abids' and the Christian Dube's and Daniel Corso's there too. I also don't think any of those guys were as old as Riopel when he won it. Still it's nice to have a guy with some awards to his name.

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09-01-2009, 08:28 PM
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Riopel honoured in Moncton

Rio was brought back in by the Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) to drop the puck for an exhibition game last week. I got a chance to ask him a couple of questions when I went to get an autograph. He said they (Flyers) have said that the job in the AHL will be a battle between himself and Backlund.

There's also a link on the www.moncton-wildcats.com site of an interview with Rio. It's one of the five options on the home page.

LETS GO FLYERS!!!

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09-01-2009, 09:46 PM
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Rio was brought back in by the Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL) to drop the puck for an exhibition game last week. I got a chance to ask him a couple of questions when I went to get an autograph. He said they (Flyers) have said that the job in the AHL will be a battle between himself and Backlund.

There's also a link on the www.moncton-wildcats.com site of an interview with Rio. It's one of the five options on the home page.

LETS GO FLYERS!!!

Ballin'! At some point, one of these goalie picks will have to reach Nitty status at least.

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09-02-2009, 04:30 PM
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Ballin'! At some point, one of these goalie picks will have to reach Nitty status at least.
That's what we all expected out of Boucher, Pelletier and Ouellet and those didn't exactly pan out.

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09-02-2009, 04:51 PM
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That's what we all expected out of Boucher, Pelletier and Ouellet and those didn't exactly pan out.
Well he said one of them. That means after all the misses, hopefully one will stick.

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09-02-2009, 05:18 PM
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09-03-2009, 09:30 AM
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Well he said one of them. That means after all the misses, hopefully one will stick.
That's a lot of hope on a 5th round draft pick and an undrafted free agent, isn't it (especially given that Boucher and Ouellet were 1st rounders and Pelletier was a high 2nd rounder)?

Frankly if the Emery experiment works, he could be between the pipes for the foreseeable future anyway.

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09-03-2009, 10:33 AM
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I'm going to be a bit optimistic here and say that one of Sunshine, Riopel, or Morrisson will make it to the NHL. Those guys are all at least improving unlike guys we've had in recent years like DeSerres, Kovar, etc.

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09-03-2009, 10:39 AM
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That's a lot of hope on a 5th round draft pick and an undrafted free agent, isn't it (especially given that Boucher and Ouellet were 1st rounders and Pelletier was a high 2nd rounder)?

Frankly if the Emery experiment works, he could be between the pipes for the foreseeable future anyway.
Emery? That's a lot of hope to put on a free agent from the KHL, who went in the fifth round.

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09-03-2009, 10:43 AM
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Emery? That's a lot of hope to put on a free agent from the KHL, who went in the fifth round.
Emery has proven he can play in the NHL and put up great numbers in arguably the second best league in the world.

Riopel and Backlund haven't even proven themselves at the AHL level. Putting up great numbers in juniors and in Europe is meaningless.

I have more faith in someone who's already played at the NHL level than 2 guys who haven't.

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