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Old
08-18-2009, 10:50 PM
  #176
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Heatley+Lee+2nd'10=Hartnell+ Giroux+Jones?

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Old
08-18-2009, 10:53 PM
  #177
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoSenators11 View Post
Heatley+Lee+2nd'10=Hartnell+ Giroux+Jones?

Giroux is not going to go in a deal for Heatley. They'd trade JVR before Giroux, and it would take a lot to get him out. Also, I doubt Hartnell goes anywhere. He is the only forward we have who brings his style of game to the table.

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Old
08-18-2009, 10:58 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
The cap will likely be right about where it is right now. It may go down next year but should rebound back to around 56-57 mil for the following season. Even if the cap doesn't go down after next season it will most likely only be because the players have returned a larger portion of the money in escrow again next year. However, as I see there being a rebound in the revenues after the 2010/11 season there won't likely be any significant increase in the cap as the players will just not return much if any of their escrowed money (ie - the owners will be responsible for 100% of the players salaries again as opposed to the players basically taking a pay cut by returning some of the escrowed money).

As far as keeping all of our players, I think we can do it but it may be tough. I personally think that Parent will be gone as soon as Marshall can replace him (probably 2-3 years). Unless we ditch Jones right now we'll have his 2.75 mil and about 1.25 mil in the decrease in Prongers cap hit to give Coburn and Parent raises next year and to cover any drop in the cap. If the cap drops significantly then I think Carle will need to go before the start of the season. If we hold on to Briere and JVR then there is a chance we could move Briere after this season or next if we need cap money AND he plays a full season (and returns to his old form of a ppg player post lockout).

We are already facing a delicate situation with our current and future cap and adding a 7.5 mil contract on top of what we already have makes it even worse. JVR should be a very good top 6 forward for us no later than the middle of this season and he'll only count as 1.6 mil against the cap (max, less if he doesn;t reach his bonuses). We will NEED some top quality young cheap players to go along with all these high end contracts we have. From the 07 draft to the 2012 draft we've already dealt away five 1st rnd picks (players taken or the actual picks), five 2nd rnd picks and four 3rd rnd picks IIRC. That's an AWEFUL lot of young cheap players who could be cheap replacements that we don't/won't have available when we need them. I can't see how it makes much sense to trade away JVR when he's EXACTLY the type of blue chip quality prospect we need to be holding on to.

If we trade JVR in a deal for Heatley then the Flyers will have just 2 years where there is even a chance to win the cup before we lose 3 significant parts of the team if not more and we will be 5 years away from being able to replace them. By tat time another 3 pieces will be gone and we'll be lucky to have Richards, Giroux and Coburn remaining from our current core players.
Wow, just wow. I really would like to know what inside information you have that allows you to make statements that are just so amazing. Please, tell me how you are so confident that, not only will the cap go down, it will also rebound. Also, you're saying Kevin Marshall (never even played in the AHL) will be able to replace Ryan Parent (more than held his own in the NHL when he's played) in 2-3 years. You make predictions that are for the worst when you see fit, and for the best when it suits your argument. I could say that the cap will be 60 million next year and ryan parent will make only 1 million on his next contract and lead the league in plus minus. JVR will also struggle to adjust to the speed of the pro game and will not be called up to the flyers next year as the organization will not want to rush him. Both of those predictions are based in just as much fact as yours are, actually the JVR one is based in real observations and fact as JVR himself said he had problems adjusting to the speed in the AHL end of season and playoffs (and the stats bear out too boot, how novel!).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laoghaire View Post
You are proving my point. At full value, the value Heatley would be if he was judged purely on his playing ability. You are judging his value with your views on him diminished by his trade demand.
No, even at full value Heatley wouldnt get Giroux and JVR and a PPG Player in Briere (since we're rating at full potential, Briere is better than a PPG player, Giroux woulda had ~52 points as a rookie across a full year and JVR would still be the 2nd overall pick...at full value of course...) If it goes your way, it has to go ours too...and your argument goes out the window...also I threw up...again, because of you....Where should I send the dry cleaning bill?

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Old
08-18-2009, 11:02 PM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyersfan75 View Post
No, even at full value Heatley wouldnt get Giroux and JVR and a PPG Player in Briere (since we're rating at full potential, Briere is better than a PPG player, Giroux woulda had ~52 points as a rookie across a full year and JVR would still be the 2nd overall pick...at full value of course...) If it goes your way, it has to go ours too...and your argument goes out the window...also I threw up...again, because of you....Where should I send the dry cleaning bill?
Not really contributing to the discussion that much, as I think Heatley is not going to be traded anywhere at this point...

A Sens fan on our forum did some grave digging and picked up a thread in 07 probing the worth of Heatley at that time. I think there was a Pens fan who offered Malkin+ for him...

Personally, I'm not that interested in seeing him go for nothing right now.

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Old
08-18-2009, 11:15 PM
  #180
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Heatley and the next 10 first round picks of the Sens for Briere and Jones?

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Old
08-18-2009, 11:16 PM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
Not really contributing to the discussion that much, as I think Heatley is not going to be traded anywhere at this point...

A Sens fan on our forum did some grave digging and picked up a thread in 07 probing the worth of Heatley at that time. I think there was a Pens fan who offered Malkin+ for him...

Personally, I'm not that interested in seeing him go for nothing right now.
And every Leaf's fan wants to believe they can still get Carter and a First for Kaberle... A) Its not 2007 B) One poster offering Malkin means absolutely nothing in the real world in terms of value C) I don't think anyone has ever said he should go for nothing. In fact I specifically said I did not intend to assert that Briere + JVR was in fact fair value from a sens POV (Though I do think that is more than fair from a flyers POV), however in evaluating that deal, briere and JVR is a deal the Flyers should make in my opinion...See everyone has opinions, means nothing in the real world, unless Bryan Murray and Paul Holmgren are secretly You and Phlocky....wait...that actually might make more sense than this entire conversation...

Quote:
Heatley and the next 10 first round picks of the Sens for Briere and Jones?
Deal! No Takesie-Backsies!

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Old
08-18-2009, 11:19 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
Not really contributing to the discussion that much, as I think Heatley is not going to be traded anywhere at this point...

A Sens fan on our forum did some grave digging and picked up a thread in 07 probing the worth of Heatley at that time. I think there was a Pens fan who offered Malkin+ for him.
That is 1 fan. And the values of both of those players has changed since then.

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Old
08-18-2009, 11:25 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
That is 1 fan. And the values of both of those players has changed since then.
You don't need to tell me that. Might just be one fan, but there were several proposals in that thread that would likely be laughed off the forums and locked if they were posted today.

It just illustrates the point of why he probably isn't getting traded period. It's unlikely that an asset gets moved when it's that low in value. 95% of the proposals I've seen since July 1st don't even approach what I'd consider a reasonable return. Even if he isn't happy, he's a valuable scorer and should not be carted off for scraps.

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Old
08-18-2009, 11:31 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
You don't need to tell me that. Might just be one fan, but there were several proposals in that thread that would likely be laughed off the forums and locked if they were posted today.
Which kind of says a lot with regard to that thread's relevance to the current situation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
It just illustrates the point of why he probably isn't getting traded period. It's unlikely that an asset gets moved when it's that low in value. 95% of the proposals I've seen since July 1st don't even approach what I'd consider a reasonable return. Even if he isn't happy, he's a valuable scorer and should not be carted off for scraps.
Fair enough. How far, assuming you have Murray's job, is JVR + Briere from getting the trade done?

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Old
08-19-2009, 12:18 AM
  #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
Fair enough. How far, assuming you have Murray's job, is JVR + Briere from getting the trade done?
I'm not going to get into this too much, but from my perspective... I do not like Briere's contract one bit. I like the ideal point production for the money he's being paid. However there is the length of the deal, age of the player, and the health concerns that come along with it. His contract really sours the deal for me (probably more than most other people).

Replace JVR with Giroux (more proven prospect), add ~2M cap dump from Ottawa on top of Heatley (Kelly maybe) and you'd be getting somewhere.

Don't get me wrong. I can read the cap numbers of both teams, and understand pretty well that probably the LAST thing that the Flyers need is more scoring. A deal between Philladelphia and Ottawa is a near impossibility.

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Old
08-19-2009, 01:11 AM
  #186
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Originally Posted by TheHMan View Post
I'm not going to get into this too much, but from my perspective... I do not like Briere's contract one bit. I like the ideal point production for the money he's being paid. However there is the length of the deal, age of the player, and the health concerns that come along with it. His contract really sours the deal for me (probably more than most other people).

Replace JVR with Giroux (more proven prospect), add ~2M cap dump from Ottawa on top of Heatley (Kelly maybe) and you'd be getting somewhere.

Don't get me wrong. I can read the cap numbers of both teams, and understand pretty well that probably the LAST thing that the Flyers need is more scoring. A deal between Philladelphia and Ottawa is a near impossibility.

Wait, you want Briere AND Giroux AND you want to dump salary on the team taking on the player with the bigger hit? That's ridiculous.

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Old
08-19-2009, 02:37 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by flyersfan75 View Post
Wow, just wow. I really would like to know what inside information you have that allows you to make statements that are just so amazing. Please, tell me how you are so confident that, not only will the cap go down, it will also rebound. Also, you're saying Kevin Marshall (never even played in the AHL) will be able to replace Ryan Parent (more than held his own in the NHL when he's played) in 2-3 years. You make predictions that are for the worst when you see fit, and for the best when it suits your argument. I could say that the cap will be 60 million next year and ryan parent will make only 1 million on his next contract and lead the league in plus minus. JVR will also struggle to adjust to the speed of the pro game and will not be called up to the flyers next year as the organization will not want to rush him. Both of those predictions are based in just as much fact as yours are, actually the JVR one is based in real observations and fact as JVR himself said he had problems adjusting to the speed in the AHL end of season and playoffs (and the stats bear out too boot, how novel!).



No, even at full value Heatley wouldnt get Giroux and JVR and a PPG Player in Briere (since we're rating at full potential, Briere is better than a PPG player, Giroux woulda had ~52 points as a rookie across a full year and JVR would still be the 2nd overall pick...at full value of course...) If it goes your way, it has to go ours too...and your argument goes out the window...also I threw up...again, because of you....Where should I send the dry cleaning bill?

It's called market analysis and actually being able to think on my own. I know that it's not something you are used to doing (like when you insisted 20 times that Pronger's league age when his new contract was signed was 34 not 35 and it took about 40 people posting the same thing that many times for you to finally get it) but that's ok.

No, I'm not going to waste my time explaining it to you, you don't matter enough for me to care. Come back in 2 years, you'll still be wrong then I'm sure.

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Old
08-19-2009, 03:28 AM
  #188
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Originally Posted by phlocky View Post
It's called market analysis and actually being able to think on my own. I know that it's not something you are used to doing (like when you insisted 20 times that Pronger's league age when his new contract was signed was 34 not 35 and it took about 40 people posting the same thing that many times for you to finally get it) but that's ok.

No, I'm not going to waste my time explaining it to you, you don't matter enough for me to care. Come back in 2 years, you'll still be wrong then I'm sure.
My Exact words from the day pronger was traded before any contract extension was signed:
Quote:
Now I love this trade, no matter what GKJ says, but my reading of this section of the CBA says that the age of the player, in this case Pronger, is calculated "as of June 30 prior to the league year in which the [contract] is to be effective". Thus, Pronger's age would be calculated as of June 30, 2010 as that would be the year in which the contract would begin, and he would be 35 and subject to the restrictions. Also, in case anyone else was wondering (I was), you cannot have a contract with performance bonuses included if the contract is over one year long, even if you are 35 or older, so no dice on a long, performance bonus-laden, contract.... Oh well, hopefully I'm wrong about this, as I'd love to see Pronger roving around in the O&B for many years to come!
Thanks for playing...you can go home now...oh wait, theres more:

As for your "market research"...yeah, those things require these fancy things called numbers that are used in conjunction with these equation thingys, algorithms, that can be used to create whats known "in the industry" as a model. I didnt see any in your "market research" but perhaps your way is better. What, you dont have access to the NHL's books and numbers nor the exact methodological practices used to predict future revenues? Well I'm sure youve thought this out on your own (along with the other cap is falling, cap is rising folks) and thats good enough for us! Lets publish a paper together! "Thinking for oneself: The use of third-hand reports to establish a model for salary cap rises and falls in the NHL" Im sure so many reputable journals will jump at the chance! But wait, if this paper had been writted a mere 6 months ago, the salary cap would have only been 50 million dollars for this year, how could it have been so wrong?!


Why dont you come back to me in a few years, next time with numbers to back up your assertions, then we can have a real discussion about whether or not ONE MILLION DOLLARS in cap money makes a difference between heatley and briere in a, then, certain cap world. You dont think Briere is worth trading for Heatley straight up, thats fine, I can respect that. But dont say it based solely on the cap numbers, and we're gonna lose carter and gagne if we do this, because thats just fear-mongering and overlooking the point that BRIERE AND HEATLEY ARE SEPARATED BY ONE MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR IN CAP HIT...wow, sorry that was a lot easier to say than I thought it would be. One million dollars isnt the difference between Carter and no Carter, or Gagne and no Gagne, especially since you don't know what the cap will be next year or the year after.

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08-19-2009, 08:37 AM
  #189
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When Gagne's deal is up, unless he signs again at a similar rate, I see him being the odd man out. No way the Flyers let Carter or Coburn walk.

^As much as it pains me to think like that.

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08-19-2009, 08:51 AM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishSniper87 View Post
When Gagne's deal is up, unless he signs again at a similar rate, I see him being the odd man out. No way the Flyers let Carter or Coburn walk.

^As much as it pains me to think like that.
It's a tough thing to forecast. He'll be 32 right, so I would imagine he'll like that to be his last contract. I could see him signing a 7 year deal with the last couple of years being tacked on for cap purposes, bringing the hit to about where it is now ....

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08-19-2009, 11:56 AM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyersfan75 View Post
My Exact words from the day pronger was traded before any contract extension was signed:


Thanks for playing...you can go home now...oh wait, theres more:

As for your "market research"...yeah, those things require these fancy things called numbers that are used in conjunction with these equation thingys, algorithms, that can be used to create whats known "in the industry" as a model. I didnt see any in your "market research" but perhaps your way is better. What, you dont have access to the NHL's books and numbers nor the exact methodological practices used to predict future revenues? Well I'm sure youve thought this out on your own (along with the other cap is falling, cap is rising folks) and thats good enough for us! Lets publish a paper together! "Thinking for oneself: The use of third-hand reports to establish a model for salary cap rises and falls in the NHL" Im sure so many reputable journals will jump at the chance! But wait, if this paper had been writted a mere 6 months ago, the salary cap would have only been 50 million dollars for this year, how could it have been so wrong?!


Why dont you come back to me in a few years, next time with numbers to back up your assertions, then we can have a real discussion about whether or not ONE MILLION DOLLARS in cap money makes a difference between heatley and briere in a, then, certain cap world. You dont think Briere is worth trading for Heatley straight up, thats fine, I can respect that. But dont say it based solely on the cap numbers, and we're gonna lose carter and gagne if we do this, because thats just fear-mongering and overlooking the point that BRIERE AND HEATLEY ARE SEPARATED BY ONE MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR IN CAP HIT...wow, sorry that was a lot easier to say than I thought it would be. One million dollars isnt the difference between Carter and no Carter, or Gagne and no Gagne, especially since you don't know what the cap will be next year or the year after.
LOL, if you are looking at the NHL books for market indicators then you are looking in the wrong place.

There are 2 leading industries that economists look at as an indicator for an economic treand, do you know what they are???? I'll give you a hint, Obama has new programs in place right now to try and boost these 2 markets. I can't speak for one but the other I am intimently familiar with and it has begun to show a rebound. The rest of the market place typically follows 6-18 months behind these 2 depending upon industry. Thus, some markets (like the NHL) may continue to decline for another 6 months or so before they bottom out. Then they could spend about 6 months with little to no change before they begin to see a rebound in their industry.

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