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0.3% Chance of Glory!

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Old
09-07-2009, 06:04 AM
  #1
Felonious Python
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0.3% Chance of Glory!

Puck Prospectus has been doing their own 30 teams in 30 days. Tampa ranks at number 26. What makes PP different is that they use statistics to figure how teams will do.

the article itself: http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=260

explanation of terms they use: http://www.puckprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=70

Here's something most can understand:
Eastern Conference Playoff Contenders (1st Round +)*: 29.4 %
Eastern Conference Noisemakers (2nd Round +)*: 9.6 %
Eastern Conference Contenders: (3rd Round +)*: 3.2 %
Stanley Cup Contenders (Stanley Cup Finals)*: 1.0 %
Stanley Cup Champions*: 0.3 %

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Old
09-07-2009, 10:51 AM
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Great post or greatest post?

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Old
09-07-2009, 11:37 AM
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The Fear Boners
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For a team projected to finish fairly low in the standings, the Lightning boast quite an impressive group of forwards. Starting with Vincent Lecavalier, the 29 year old Stanley Cup winner finished last season with a disappointing 67 point output. Sure his ice-time fell from 22:57 to 20:15 per-game under Barry Melrose/Rick Tocchet, but that still should not account for such a steep drop off in points (he had 92 points in 2007-08). While VUKOTA sees Lecavalier finishing with just over 69 points next season, he certainly possesses the talent to be able to eclipse that total.
Ugh, he had a torn labrum and broken wrist. It wasn't like he just started slumping, he was injured. At least the Sabre guys in baseball take that into account.

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Old
09-07-2009, 11:41 AM
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Jeffler
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Originally Posted by Bobsled Gainey View Post
Ugh, he had a torn labrum and broken wrist. It wasn't like he just started slumping, he was injured. At least the Sabre guys in baseball take that into account.
Don't worry, their lists suck. They have league scoring going drastically down, teams using more than 82 games on their goalies (Toronto, for example, apparently plays 108 games next year), and 99% of the League is going to have a slump year. Their baseball stuff is top notch, but their hockey attempts are terrible.

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Old
09-07-2009, 11:44 AM
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The Fear Boners
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Originally Posted by Reverse Flying V View Post
Don't worry, their lists suck. They have league scoring going drastically down, teams using more than 82 games on their goalies (Toronto, for example, apparently plays 108 games next year), and 99% of the League is going to have a slump year. Their baseball stuff is top notch, but their hockey attempts are terrible.
Yeah, I don't want to hate too much because they're actually making the effort to do this and I would love for someone to figure it all out, and frankly, i'm probably not the guy to do that.

I also noticed with baseball the metrics are fantastic of showing what a player is capable of, what he is doing, and what you should consider the mean. Baseball also has the luxury of usually having some kind of samples before and after injuries, etc.

Its very much in its infancy here, but its a decent start.

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