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draft picks are nice, but...

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Old
09-19-2009, 03:43 PM
  #1
DOGSTARMAN
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draft picks are nice, but...

Since 1995, the Bruins have picked the following player in the top 10 of the 1st round:

1995 Kyle McLaren #9
1996 Jon Aitken #8
1997 Joe Thornton #1
1997 Sergei Samsonov #8
2000 Lars Jonsson #7
2006 Phil Kessel #5
2007 Zach Hamill #8

Of those 7 players, 0 are currently playing for the Bruins. Only Hamill still might.

In fact, when you look at the current roster, only 1 player drafted by the Bruins in the 1st round is (likely to be) playing for the team this year. Mark Stuart. One. First. Round. Draft. Pick. And they've had lots of them to try with, both with the "previous regime" and the current management group.

Of course there have been some good picks in the drafts and the 2nd round in particular has treated them pretty well. But if we look at the probable roster at large, and let's assume it looks like this

Sturm-Savard-Ryder
Lucic-Krejci-Wheeler
Recchi-Bergeron-Kobasew
Bitz-Begin-thornton

Chara-Wideman
Morris-Stuart
Hunwick-Ference

Thomas/Rask

then we see that only 6 of 20 players (30%) were drafted by the team at all, in any round. Everybody else came from somewhere else. Now, the rash reply might be that we're just a year or two away from enjoying the bounty of Colbourne, Marchand, Arniel, etc. But if you've been around here more than a couple years, you'll remember that there were equally sky high expectations of countless previous bumper crops of yoots. It was not so long ago that we were * this close * to dropping the likes of Lashoff, Morrisonn, Toivonen, Kalus, Wanvig, Mann, Girard, etc. etc. into the lineup. None of those guys are here, you know? So there are no guarantees when it comes to the new top prospect or three that people are intrigued by.

It is something to keep in mind while counting and dreaming about All Those Draft Picks that have been amassed. There's an old saying about a bird in hand... that adage exists for a reason.

Because of how things were set up, it was not realistic that Kessel could have stayed here. But his departure is the culmination of a story that has been building up for a couple years. They didn't just randomly find themselves in a position where, "oops, no money left for Phil Kessel!" They navigated to that situation and then dispatched him for what they could get. Now we have some lottery tickets that might turn into some decent players, or maybe not. But remember that history. It really is a roll of a dice. They let go of a 21 year old goal scorer with a NHL track record. Imperfect or not, expensive or not, it could be awhile, a long while, before he is replaced with someone who brings the same good qualities to the table while not being flawed in ways that seemingly so irk both management and fans alike. The market sets worth and Kessel got $5.4M/year. I suppose there's a good chance the Bruins could find a better version of Kessel for less money but, eh, I can't even finish that sentence with a straight face.

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09-19-2009, 03:45 PM
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You also forget that prospects such as Lashoff (former first rounder), Karsums, etc. were brought it for other assets.

Also, Zach Hamill still has a chance to make the team - it's kind of unfair to include him on the list. Then again, almost everyone has given up on him (unfair at the moment).

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09-19-2009, 03:45 PM
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the premise of this post is critically flawed black eye, and i'm kind of surprised that you either missed it or willfully omitted it

the majority of those players, misses or trades all, brought back other assets, did they not?

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09-19-2009, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vic Rattlehead View Post
You also forget that prospects such as Lashoff (former first rounder), Karsums, etc. were brought in for other assets.

Also, Zach Hamill still has a chance to make the team - it's kind of unfair to include him on the list. Then again, almost everyone has given up on him (unfair at the moment).
Sorry, made a couple of mistakes in that post.

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09-19-2009, 03:49 PM
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Frankie Spankie
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Well Kessel is an exception because he asked to be traded but the rest of them were drafted more than 10 years ago. How many people in the league stay with their drafted team after 10+ years anyway?

And yes, most of the team wasn't drafted but at the same time, we don't have too many UFA signings. We have those guys because we traded good players that were drafted by us. In fact, the only players that weren't from a trade that was drafted by us or a player that was drafted was Savard, Wheeler, Ryder, Begin, Thornton, Chara, Morris, Thomas and maybe Wideman, don't want to follow the trade tree on that one. It would be more of a concern if we were only signing UFAs but that's simply not the case. If you track down how we got most of our team, it was either Boston draftees or trading our own draftees.

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09-19-2009, 03:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Eye View Post
It is something to keep in mind while counting and dreaming about All Those Draft Picks that have been amassed. There's an old saying about a bird in hand... that adage exists for a reason.

.
Kevin, if the Bruins actually use those assets for drafting I agree with you about it being a crap shoot.

But we simply don't know if those picks will be Bruin's picks when all is said and done.

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Old
09-19-2009, 03:55 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Eye View Post
Since 1995, the Bruins have picked the following player in the top 10 of the 1st round:

1995 Kyle McLaren #9
1996 Jon Aitken #8
1997 Joe Thornton #1
1997 Sergei Samsonov #8
2000 Lars Jonsson #7
2006 Phil Kessel #5
2007 Zach Hamill #8

Of those 7 players, 0 are currently playing for the Bruins. Only Hamill still might.

In fact, when you look at the current roster, only 1 player drafted by the Bruins in the 1st round is (likely to be) playing for the team this year. Mark Stuart. One. First. Round. Draft. Pick. And they've had lots of them to try with, both with the "previous regime" and the current management group.
Hold on, though. Hamill will play for the Bruins barring some unforeseeable injury; Kessel means two more draft picks; Thornton led to Sturm, Ference, and Kobasew; and Samsonov is the reason we have Lucic. Let's not discount their value here! Not to mention that Wheeler, Kobasew, Stuart, Sturm, Ward, Rask, and Morris were first-round picks.

Quote:
Of course there have been some good picks in the drafts and the 2nd round in particular has treated them pretty well. But if we look at the probable roster at large, and let's assume it looks like this

Sturm-Savard-Ryder
Lucic-Krejci-Wheeler
Recchi-Bergeron-Kobasew
Bitz-Begin-thornton

Chara-Wideman
Morris-Stuart
Hunwick-Ference

Thomas/Rask

then we see that only 6 of 20 players (30%) were drafted by the team at all, in any round. Everybody else came from somewhere else. Now, the rash reply might be that we're just a year or two away from enjoying the bounty of Colbourne, Marchand, Arniel, etc. But if you've been around here more than a couple years, you'll remember that there were equally sky high expectations of countless previous bumper crops of yoots. It was not so long ago that we were * this close * to dropping the likes of Lashoff, Morrisonn, Toivonen, Kalus, Wanvig, Mann, Girard, etc. etc. None of those guys are here, you know? So there are no guarantees when it comes to the new top prospect or three.

It is something to keep in mind while counting and dreaming about All Those Draft Picks that have been amassed. There's an old saying about a bird in hand... that adage exists for a reason.

Because of how things were set up, it was not realistic that Kessel could have stayed here. But his departure is the culmination of a story that has been building up for a couple years. They didn't just randomly find themselves in a position where, "oops, no money left for Phil Kessel!" They navigated to that situation and then dispatched him for what they could get. Now we have some lottery tickets that might turn into some decent players, or maybe not. But remember that history. It really is a roll of a dice. They let go of a 21 year old goal scorer with a NHL track record. Imperfect or not, expensive or not, it could be awhile, a long while, before he is replaced with someone who brings the same good qualities to the table while not being flawed in ways that seemingly so irk both management and fans alike. The market sets worth and Kessel got $5.4M/year. I suppose there's a good chance the Bruins could find a better version of Kessel for less money but, eh, I can't even finish that sentence with a straight face.
Of course picks don't mean a home run. But neither do prospects. This move gives them more flexibility than just about any team has right now. Picking later in the first-round lessens the likelihood that a player will turn out how the team expects him to, but two first-round picks in the 7-13 range and the 20-25 range should be enough to move up even higher.

Another thing to consider: those picks you listed were made over the course of three GMs. Usually a new GM brings at least a small purging of the previous GM's picks.

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Old
09-19-2009, 03:56 PM
  #8
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Good post.

The problem is that draft picks are useful in a few ways. To be traded for NHL ready talent, to draft a player that can later be moved to fill a team need, or to draft a player to keep long term.

Though those guys aren't playing for the team, the assets they helped aquire are paying off pretty handsomely.

McLaren left for Hackett and Jilson- Jilson back to SJ for Boyes- Boyes for Wideman.
Thornton- we know. - Sturm
Samsonov for Reasoner Stastny and a second- with the second Boston takes Milan Lucic
Lars Jonsson goes back in the draft and we are comped with a pick we use for Alexandrov (the best d prospect we have)
Out of that list, only Aitken hasn't made a positive impact on the organization.


Last edited by JMiller: 09-19-2009 at 04:01 PM.
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Old
09-19-2009, 04:00 PM
  #9
DOGSTARMAN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deliciouspie View Post
the premise of this post is critically flawed black eye, and i'm kind of surprised that you either missed it or willfully omitted it

the majority of those players, misses or trades all, brought back other assets, did they not?
Let's take a look

Sturm (JT trade) - Savard (UFA) - Ryder (UFA)
Lucic (draft) - Krejci (draft) - Wheeler (UFA)
Recchi (ML trade) - Bergeron (draft) - Kobasew (JT trade indirect)
Bitz (draft) - Begin (UFA) - Thornton (UFA)

Chara (UFA) - Wideman (BB trade)
Morris (UFA) - Stuart (draft)
Hunwick (draft) - Ference (JT trade indirect)

Thomas (UFA) - Rask ( trade)

From that list, I see 8 guys who were brought in by UFA. I see 3 other guys who came in from the Thornton trade or its aftershocks.

I do agree that these picks in the next few years have value. My point is not that they don't. My point would be that it is possible, and it is happening, to get giddy about the picks and their value and that should be tempered by the fact that the value is extremely TBD and we lost a proven goal scorer in the process.

When you look at that lineup, it was NOT built by trading away prospects and draft picks. There are of course examples of guys who left for someone who is still here (primarily Thornton, also Lashoff, Boyes, Raycroft). But do you see somebody like Hossa, Bouwmeester, Kovalchuk anywhere in this lineup that came here because the Bruins shipped out picks and prospects?

I am mainly pointing out how it is assumed that certain things will transpire. The current team shows little evidence of either a mother lode of 1st round picks (but I'll give you the excellent 2nd round results, so maybe I'm overstating this) or how they've parlayed their assets into blue chip young players from other teams. I see a lot of high fiving about getting rid of that punk Kessel and the future is going to be great. We'll see.

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09-19-2009, 04:05 PM
  #10
DOGSTARMAN
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Gang, by the way, I'm just kinda spinning this out loud while I think about it today. Seems like a lot of people have already sealed off the Kessel era and are dumping on him left and right. I don't find that so easy. I'm taking a position in making this post. I do happen to believe a lot of what I wrote, but I know it is painted much more black and white than it really is. It's not doom and gloom in Boston, but I don't want to get carried away with the wave of good feelings either. I'm sure many of you will make excellent and well reasoned counter points and that's cool. I'm not here to tell you that you are wrong. I'm just kind of reacting to what has been going on the past several hours.

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09-19-2009, 04:08 PM
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Horray! We've finished with all the Kessel talk and now we're going to debate the merits of draft picks! I can't wait for some meaningful hockey.

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Old
09-19-2009, 04:08 PM
  #12
DOGSTARMAN
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>>Hold on, though. Hamill will play for the Bruins barring some unforeseeable injury

Probably. Hopefully. But there was once just as much conviction about Toivonen, Lashoff, and many, many others.

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Old
09-19-2009, 04:10 PM
  #13
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Originally Posted by Fang View Post
Horray! We've finished with all the Kessel talk and now we're going to debate the merits of draft picks! I can't wait for some meaningful hockey.
How's Whine Country?

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Old
09-19-2009, 04:23 PM
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If you can assemble a good team...who cares how you do it, as long as the team is good.

Sure a lot of Boston's draft picks aren't currently playing for Boston and perhaps not even with the organization...but that doesn't matter. Some were traded for other assets. Some picks were likely traded for other assets. Some didn't work out. Alot of picks don't.

What's important is being able to supplement the picks lost (regardless of the means in which they were lost) through intelligent asset management and sensible free agent signings.

Since Boston was a good team last year and projects to be a good team this year, I don't see a major problem.



By the way I suggest you look at all the other teams in the league. I'm guessing 30% might not be a low figure.

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Old
09-19-2009, 04:28 PM
  #15
FutureConsiderations
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Eye View Post
Let's take a look

Sturm (JT trade) - Savard (UFA) - Ryder (UFA)
Lucic (draft *AND Samsonov trade*) - Krejci (draft) - Wheeler (UFA)
Recchi (ML trade) - Bergeron (draft) - Kobasew (JT trade indirect)
Bitz (draft) - Begin (UFA) - Thornton (UFA)

Chara (UFA) - Wideman (BB trade)
Morris (UFA) - Stuart (draft)
Hunwick (draft) - Ference (JT trade indirect)

Thomas (UFA) - Rask ( trade)

From that list, I see 8 guys who were brought in by UFA. I see 3 other guys who came in from the Thornton trade or its aftershocks.

I do agree that these picks in the next few years have value. My point is not that they don't. My point would be that it is possible, and it is happening, to get giddy about the picks and their value and that should be tempered by the fact that the value is extremely TBD and we lost a proven goal scorer in the process.

When you look at that lineup, it was NOT built by trading away prospects and draft picks. There are of course examples of guys who left for someone who is still here (primarily Thornton, also Lashoff, Boyes, Raycroft). But do you see somebody like Hossa, Bouwmeester, Kovalchuk anywhere in this lineup that came here because the Bruins shipped out picks and prospects?

I am mainly pointing out how it is assumed that certain things will transpire. The current team shows little evidence of either a mother lode of 1st round picks (but I'll give you the excellent 2nd round results, so maybe I'm overstating this) or how they've parlayed their assets into blue chip young players from other teams. I see a lot of high fiving about getting rid of that punk Kessel and the future is going to be great. We'll see.
The bolded players were first-round picks and the red highlights were second-round picks, though. It's half the team.

The blue highlights show who came from former first-round picks. That's nearly the whole team. At just about every moment on the ice this year, there will be a player who was a first round pick or who came from trading a first-round pick.

If you want to get really technical, Recchi came from Lashoff but also Karsums, who came from Stumpel, who was a second-round pick. Also, Fernandez came from Kalus, a second round pick and Montador came from Nokelainen, a first-round pick.

One last consideration: Alexandrov was compensation for a first-round pick (Jonsson) not signed.

It's safe to say that through conservative, smart asset management, Chia has enough flexibility with these picks to get some real NHL talent by either trading, moving up, or even moving down.


Last edited by FutureConsiderations: 09-19-2009 at 04:41 PM.
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