I have heard nothing but negativity come from every fan base outside of Toronto about how badly we got ripped off in the Kessel deal, and even with in Leafs nation it seems about only half us really support this trade.
I'm here to post my feelings on it, and why I think we obviously got the better end of the deal.
To Tor: Phil Kessel
To Bos: 1st round '10 and '11, 2nd round '10
Lets look at what we gave up first. Let's look at what a 1st round pick is really worth.
I picked a random 3 year period of the NHL and took a look at it's drafts, impaticular it's first round. I choose on random 2000, 2001 and 2002.
Here are the ratios of how many of the 30 first round picks became NHL regulars.
These numbers may seem low, and someone could say that it was just a weak draft period, but these 3 years were the drafts where Rick Nash, Jay-Bo, Kari Lehtonen, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik, Rick DiPietro and for us leafs fan Mike Komisarek as well, just to name a few.
So this works out to about 12.3/30 1st rounders become NHL regulars.
Some would argue I'm being too strict on my definition of what an NHL regular is, so let's make it an even broader range and say 15/30, so about half, of 1st round picks become NHL regulars.
So we traded two picks that have a 50% chance of getting NHL regulars. So simple math...
We gave Two 1st rounders
We gave two 50% chance to get an NHL regular
We gave one 100% chance to get an NHL regular
We sent boston a future NHL regular.
Now NHL regular itself is a broad term, it ranges from players like Malkin and Ovechkin to Patrick Dwyer and George Laraque.
I think we can all agrea that Phil Kessel will be atleast a 25 goal scorer correct? Some are saying 40-50 goals, but for the haters let's say he is short of expectation and is only 25 a season. Even Owen Nolan had 25 goals THIS YEAR.
Last year 59 of the NHL's 620 regular players had 25+ goals.
59/620 is 9.51%
So again for the haters let's increase this number a bit to 10%
So if you take all avg's into account and if you look at this trade in a big picture type of way with no bias what so ever.
We sent to Boston a 10% chance of getting a 25+ scorer, and a 2nd round pick (Don't get me started on the real value of a 2nd rounder) and in return we got Kessel.
I'm happy with that swamp.
The draft is too much about luck, out of the top 3-5 their has been no consistent pattern in history to show a 1st round pick is nesseraily a strong player, and even in the top 5 their have been a near majority who have been busts.
I think the facts and numbers speak for themselves, the leafs won this deal.
I am disappointed by the lack of compromise with people's opinion around here.
I completely support the Kessel trade.
I can also admit that giving up 1st round picks sucks, and may very well bite the leafs in the ass.
However, I would make the exact same trade again because a first line player(s) is what we need and there were enough moves made on the back end this off-season to make the Leafs a possible playoff team.
I really think Kessel is a dynamic player and is worth the price.
BUT I might be wrong.
Everyone really needs to understand that no one, including Brian Burke, really knows how this will pan out. Some people wanted to draft from within, I don't think you can pass up on Kessel.
That's a 5% chance per first round pick of getting a 25+ goal scorer.
That means you're posing that less than two players will become a 25 goal scorer in each draft. Which is ********. 2001 was a horrid draft and there are still 5-7 guys that have 25 goal or more ability.
That would make the broad percentage at least 15-20% per draft. Thus, we've given Boston a 30-40% or more chance of a young 25 goal scorer or more. It's still not horrible, but man, get your stuff close to right.