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Puck Prospectus on 2009 NHL Drafted Players from CHL

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10-23-2009, 11:22 AM
  #1
LSF76
 
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Puck Prospectus on 2009 NHL Drafted Players from CHL

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=320

I'm really not a prospect guy. I don't watch CHL games. Some of you do. So I will present this with little comment, just noting what the numbers say (reprinted from my post at Japer's Rink):

The Puck Prospectus projection system isn't perfect, but it does have a moderately better correlation with NHL success than does draft position, so it's worth looking at.

Some Caps notes:

Eakin seems to have been drafted in about the right spot.
Fleming has a poor projection.
Mitchell has an even worse projection, but you already knew that.
Cassavant's projection is equivalent to Eakin's and much higher than anyone else in the 5th-7th rounds.

Eakin and Cassavant project higher than Carter Ashton and about the same as Landon Ferraro and Ryan O’Rilley. I mention this because those guys were viewed as potential candidates for the Caps’ 1st round pick. No way to compare those guys to Johansson or Orlov since PP hasn’t published anything on European draft picks but I’d say we’re looking pretty good.

Non-Caps notes:

The system loves Schenn and Ellis and hates Duchene, Kassian and Holland (relative to their draft spots. Duchene is not bad but projects as by far the worst of the top 11. Kassian's and Holland's projections are about equal to Eakin and Cassavant). Possible sleepers: Stephan Elliot, Tyson Barrie, Brayden McNabb, Olivier Roy. Note that the system likes the WHL and dislikes the OHL relative to the scouts this year.

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10-23-2009, 11:40 AM
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sk84fun_dc
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I can't say I have read much about that system, so some general questions....does it give any weight to stats other than G/A/Pts/PIMs? NHL success defined as what? A scorer?

How does it rate D vs forwards?

thanks for the info. or a link to the answers.

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10-23-2009, 11:57 AM
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NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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I'm a stats guy, but I don't put much stock into a stats system that tries to project solely based on numbers in formative years.

For example, they project Stefan Elliott to be significantly more productive than Matt Duchene. And would anyone take Nazem Kadri and Jordan Caron over Duchene?

I'd have to see the 10YE projections from years ago to really get an idea as to the validity of the stat.

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10-23-2009, 12:06 PM
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strungout
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It's crap.

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10-23-2009, 12:07 PM
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sk84fun_dc
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Does that system weigh anything other than the basic stats and which of the 3 leagues the player plays in?

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10-23-2009, 12:13 PM
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Langway
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The numbers told me Martin Gendron would be a future All-Star, too.


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10-23-2009, 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Langway View Post
The numbers told me Martin Gendron would be a future All-Star, too.
This guy agrees.


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Old
10-23-2009, 12:51 PM
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LSF76
 
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It doesn't just look at G, A, P. I don't remember the exact details, but it looks at P/GP, G/P and A/P (hence G:A ratio), size, age (narrowed down to months), PIMs, team environment, league environment, maybe some other stuff.

Roughly speaking, compared to draft position it occasionally identifies sleepers and occasionally identifies busts. It is right more often that simple draft position, but not a whole lot more often. Here are some articles with more detail on the system:

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=172 (System)
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=184 (Update)
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=294 (Defense)
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=312 (Goalies)

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