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The Business of Hockey Discuss the financial and business aspects of the NHL. Topics may include the CBA, work stoppages, broadcast contracts, franchise sales, NHL revenues, relocation and expansion.

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12-08-2004, 10:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Son of Steinbrenner
am i the only person that expects good news tommorow night?
No, I'm with you. I refuse to believe that the NHL and NHLPA will let this lockout end in a cancelled season. Both sides know that a cancellation will be nearly impossible to recover from. Each side is waiting until the 11th hour so they can see how much the other side is willing to give. There will be a season.

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12-08-2004, 10:55 PM
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Originally Posted by The Iconoclast
Problem with a tax based system is that those revenues are unreliable and can fluxuate wildly from year to year. When you are trying to budget you cannot rely on these funds, especially when you are signing players to long term contracts and doing budget forecasts. Its a nice gift to get, but not money that you can count on from year to year. Who knows how much is going to be there and how that pie is sliced? That is not cost certainty, it is more cost uncertainty and still allows the problems that plague the smaller teams to fester.
I tend to disagree. It's close to impossible to make an exact prediction, but you can get some pretty good estimates. First and foremost, you can calculate the minimum amount based on current contracts and team salaries. Even if some teams decide to cut payroll, a contract is a contract and will need to be paid. One can calculate the distribution of salaries amongst teams that will minimise the giveouts from luxury tax. Then you can project the salary mass increase based on current contracts and those coming to term. A neural network could help in the projection. A conservative GM would use the minimal scenario, a gambling one would use the projected amount, but the smart GM would budjet the average between both calculations (or some other in between number that could be learned from data or experience).

Because of competitiveness between teams, one can safely assume that the economic system will follow general (smooth) trends rather than eccletic distributions.

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12-08-2004, 10:59 PM
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Originally Posted by GregStack
Well, as the owners put it...It's a business.

I wouldn't be too happy to see those teams gone, but I don't think my Toronto Maple Leafs should have to help the Oilers, or the Hurricanes out in any way whatsoever with funds. If the game can't function in certain markets, yes, fold them. There is no reason for the owners to have a team in a non-hockey market if they want to make a profit, if they're in it for the love of the game, great, keep your franchise.
Edmonton is NOT a non-hockey market, yet you wouldn't blink an eye if they had to move? Unreal. Whether it's the Oilers or Hurricanes or anybody else that's in trouble, the point is all 30 teams are playing IN THE SAME LEAGUE. Unless you want your Toronto Maple Leafs to start a new league, THIS is the league that matters for fans of all 30 franchises. So, YES your Leafs could help out other franchises if they need it because they all play under one umbrella (the NHL).

Besides, how many Cups has your favorite team won under the current CBA? A new system with cost certainty could help EVERYBODY, even those teams bi*ching about losing what's rightfully theirs.

It would place the focus squarely on management and scouting departments across the league. If you manage and scout well, you'll win. Isn't that the way it's supposed to be???

How many seasons, recently, have the Leafs had a winning record, yet managed and scouted very poorly? See my point?

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12-08-2004, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Jag68Vlady27
How many seasons, recently, have the Leafs had a winning record, yet managed and scouted very poorly? See my point?
Yes but you're missing the point. Its the League thats important. THat fans go to see and pay big dollars for as opposed to the AHL team even in the same city, because it is the best league in the world. If Colorado is not able to make it in the big leagues, loses their franchise, then comes back and wins, becoming one of the large markets ruining the game, the system is fair. The league must remain strong. As you would say about the players on the team, I would say about the member franchises in the league.

The Leafs have had a winning record, but Buffalo, Washington, Carolina, Calgary, Tampa Bay, Anaheim, all spent less and made the final. Even if a Cinderella, every one of them were, and still Toronto couldnt buy a cup. It mattered not that they spent more on UFAs. None of the teams that made it while they didnt were affected.

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12-08-2004, 11:48 PM
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Sorry, but for admittedly purely selfish reasons I am hoping for no solution and a lost year, for several reasons:

a) it makes a hard cap more likely which I personally believe will be the only way that the game will take off and thrive, you can not have a sport survive long term where a small percentage of teams can outspend the others by huge margins gathering all of the stars. Fans in the other markets are not dumb, they will fade away. Baseball will learn this, hopefully hockey will fix it's problems and not have to.

b) here in the 'burgh we have a nice but very very young core, but face reality, we are not going to win anything this year, we likely will not make the playoffs. Malkin will not be here until next year at the earliest, Fleury would be best next year too, and all of that young talent will mature without counting against any rookie and first few year salary cap. Also, if the season is shot, though the exact method of the draft when a new CBA is signed has not been determined we certainly have the best possibility at an inside shot at Crosby/Brule. To hell with the seaon, let it go and come back next year. I am not worried about losing hockey in the burgh, despite being last and near last 2 of the last 3 years we still averaged better than 13 teams in attendence and only worse than 15 teams, when we were winning we were even higher in attendence.

c) Who would play if they settled this year anyways, half the players signed contracts and are playing in Europe this year.

d) at this point I am already resigned to losing the season, a psuedo-season of a handful of games over a month or two and a playoffs with teams depleted by players all over europe, russia, etc. would be a joke anyways. The stanley cup winner would have an asteric next to their names anyways.

Strike, strike, strike, let the stike go on and see you next year hockey. when the Pens can come back stonger than ever.

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12-08-2004, 11:53 PM
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I'm 19 years old, but whenever i'm at a pens game i feel like i'm 10 again and nothing is better than feeling like a little kid with all that excitement... i hope both sides are happy and feel they are the winners of a new deal, and they lacem up soon, i miss my pens

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12-09-2004, 02:15 PM
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Originally Posted by me2
Spending all $10m in on go isn't good planning on Edmonton's part. Stockpile the cash for few years so you can spread it out. Its not that hard to forecast the future of other teams so you can run a budget 3 years ahead. After 2 years of collecting $10m/y you might up your budget by $5m/y. After 3 years of collecting $10m you might up it $8m. In both of these cases you have enough cash stockpiled to last for 3 years without getting a cent more in tax in those 3 years.

If after 3 years they are getting $0 tax revenue then it means that salaries have deflated significantly and the payroll should be less.
You're basicallly agreeing with me, you just think you're disagreeing. By stockpiling, you're doing what I said, pocketing the cash. You're no longer predicting the future as we were discussing, but simply spending some *past* cash you saved. Since the future *was* unpredictable as we said, you just waited until year 3 before you started to spend, turning it into the past.

As for getting $0 tax revenue, that means that *others* salaries have deflated. Not Edmontons. In fact, Edmonton's would be higher than it would have been without the tax.

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