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Ilya Kovalchuk (Rumor Update: 01/02/10) Post #432

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Old
12-13-2009, 01:54 PM
  #26
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Originally Posted by BrooklynHockey99 View Post
I normally wouldn't give people picks to take our players, but if we can sign Kovalchuk, I would definitely offer a second rounder, which should be early in the round, to a team willing to take Redden and a third to a team willing to take Rosie.

With the clearing of those two salaries, plus trading away Prospal, Kotalik and Higgins before the trading deadline, we'd have $18 to spend, which is more than enough to sign Kovalchuk and others.

Sanger or Heineken would replace one of the vets for $1. Another vet could be replaced for $3 for a second pairing defenseman. That leaves us with $14 million to sign Kovalchuk and re-sign others.

Kovalchuk - Dubinsky - Gaborik
Avery - Drury - Callahan
Grachev - Anisimov - Lisin/Parenteau
Brash - Boyle - Wiese/Byers
Excellent post.

But why are we trading away Prospal? He's making a merely $1mil. I doubt he's going to ask for the ceiling during the off season. Besides, the whole point of acquiring Kovy is to balance out our scoring. Penciling him in the top line with Gabby doesn't solve our problem. We again are throwing out mediocre 2nd/3rd lines. I'd put him on our 2nd line, considering we bring Prospal back.

Prospal - Dubinsky - Gaborik
Kovalchuk - Anisimov - Avery
Lisin/Parenteau - Drury - Callahan
Teddy Beer - Boyle - Byers

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12-13-2009, 01:55 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by BrooklynHockey99 View Post
I normally wouldn't give people picks to take our players, but if we can sign Kovalchuk, I would definitely offer a second rounder, which should be early in the round, to a team willing to take Redden and a third to a team willing to take Rosie.

With the clearing of those two salaries, plus trading away Prospal, Kotalik and Higgins before the trading deadline, we'd have $18 to spend, which is more than enough to sign Kovalchuk and others.

Sanger or Heineken would replace one of the vets for $1. Another vet could be replaced for $3 for a second pairing defenseman. That leaves us with $14 million to sign Kovalchuk and re-sign others.

Kovalchuk - Dubinsky - Gaborik
Avery - Drury - Callahan
Grachev - Anisimov - Lisin/Parenteau
Brash - Boyle - Wiese/Byers
A little different then the hypothetical situation I planned out. But you would have to guess that Kovy gets at least 8M on the open market. We use some of that 5M left to lock up Staal. (2-2.5 for short term. 3-4 for very long term). Then we have to use money on our call ups, Grachev (who might need another year of developing).

As I previously stated, is it possible? Of course. But it's going to cripple us (cap wise), especially after the end of next off-season. We'll lose alot of our support group. Having 3 stars in NY is something I always wanted, but for the trouble that it's going to put us in, it just isn't worth it.

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12-13-2009, 01:57 PM
  #28
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I wish I was as optimistic as you guys.

Bob Gainey is still being laughed at over the Gomez deal. You think another GM is going to allow Sather to get them drunk and accept Cuban cigars in return for taking our toxic assets? Doubtful.

I don't know why it isn't being talked about much anymore, but what happened to the supposed amnesty buy-out at the end of this season that was supposed to help teams struggling since the economy is lowering the salary cap? Did the NHL rule it out or something or is that still within the realm of possibility.

The only way I see us getting rid of our toxic waste (Redden, Rozi, Drury) is using an amnesty buyout on either Redden or Drury. Rozi is probably the easiest of the three to rid ourselves of in other ways.

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12-13-2009, 02:00 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by BroadwayBlues View Post
Atlanta is the worst sports town in America. Only games that sell out there are the Falcons. and that's because it's football therefore once a week.
What player would want to play there I don't know. but if I was one I wouldn't.
The Atlanta Braves do very well. Of course they're a well run franchise. Obviously the Falcons do as well. Can't fault the Georgians because Bettman tried to force hockey upon them.

I'd love to land Kovalchuk but honestly so long as he leaves Atlanta I'll be happy for the NHL. The sooner the Thrashers relocate to a more natural hockey market the better.

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12-13-2009, 02:00 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by King Henrik 30 View Post
A little different then the hypothetical situation I planned out. But you could have to guess, that Kovy gets at least 8M on the open market. We use some of that 5M left to lock up Staal. (2-2.5 for short term. 3-4 for very long term). Then we have to use money on our call ups, Grachev (who might need another year of developing).

As I previously stated, is it possible? Of course. But it's going to cripple us (cap wise), especially after the end of next off-season. We'll lose alot of our support group. Having 3 stars in NY is something I always wanted, but for the trouble that it's going to put us in, it just isn't worth it.
I hear your point. If I may ask, (just out of curiosity) how are the Penguins able to afford to pay Crosby/Malkin while having a pretty strong supporting cast? The likes of Staal, Orpik, Guerin and Fleury. Working out the numbers seem possible, not easy, but possible. And you can still build an effective supporting cast.

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12-13-2009, 02:02 PM
  #31
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Could you imagine the trade package necessary to get him?

At least 2 first rounders, Del Zotto, Dubinsky, Staal, Anisimov and Grachev, etc etc etc... since there's no way Atlanta will take back one of our big contracts and Drury has a NTC...

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12-13-2009, 02:04 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by pwoz View Post
Could you imagine the trade package necessary to get him?

At least 2 first rounders, Del Zotto, Dubinsky, Staal, Anisimov and Grachev, etc etc etc... since there's no way Atlanta will take back one of our big contracts and Drury has a NTC...
If Kovy, like Heatley did with Ottawa, does not show any interest in staying with Atlanta, then their asking price will not be as high.

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12-13-2009, 02:05 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmDeeZee4MVP View Post
I hear your point. If I may ask, (just out of curiosity) how are the Penguins able to afford to pay Crosby/Malkin while having a pretty strong supporting cast? The likes of Staal, Orpik, Guerin and Fleury. Working out the numbers seem possible, not easy, but possible. And you can still build an effective supporting cast.
They don't have any toxic "junk" assets wasting cap space like a Drury or Redden or Rozi. Every single one of their big contracts is producing #'s that correspond with their salaries.

And the few contracts that aren't producing well for them have a low enough cap hit to not hamstring them.

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12-13-2009, 02:06 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by EmDeeZee4MVP View Post
I hear your point. If I may ask, (just out of curiosity) how are the Penguins able to afford to pay Crosby/Malkin while having a pretty strong supporting cast? The likes of Staal, Orpik, Guerin and Fleury. Working out the numbers seem possible, not easy, but possible. And you can still build an effective supporting cast.
Fairly simple. They don't over pay players like Drury, Redden and Rozsival. Imagine if Drury was signed to a $3-4MM contract instead. Pittsburgh pays their stars accordingly but their role players aren't over paid. For comparison purposes Sergei Gonchar has a $5MM cap hit just like Rozsival. Jordan Staal has a $4MM cap hit while we give Kotalik $3MM.

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12-13-2009, 02:07 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by EmDeeZee4MVP View Post
If Kovy, like Heatley, does not show interest in staying with Atlanta, then their asking price will not be as high.
Other teams have better tradeable assets though.. and I think they'd be willing to compete for Kovy more than Heatley.

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12-13-2009, 02:07 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by BleedsBlueforNYR View Post
They don't have any toxic "junk" assets wasting cap space like a Drury or Redden or Rozi. Every single one of their big contracts is producing #'s that correspond with their salaries.

And the few contracts that aren't producing well for them have a low enough cap hit to not hamstring them.
Yeah, it would surely help for us to rid ourselves of either Redden or Drury's contract, in order to "conveniently" fit Kovy under our cap.

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12-13-2009, 02:11 PM
  #37
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I'd much rather tank than trade away half of prospects and probably our first round pick for Kovy. Hall can probably bring 75% of Kovalchuk's production in his first year here at 1/10th the cost, and we'll still have our prospects

Imo Kovalchuk is going to extremely expensive to obtain. Probably something like Dubinsky, Grachev, Sanguinetti and a first. No way Atlanta takes back a big contract

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12-13-2009, 02:12 PM
  #38
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I think you we need to look at the Marian Hossa type deal that Atlanta received when they dealt him to Pitts.

Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, prospect Angelo Esposito, 1st round pick

Dubinsky, Rozsival/Redden/Drury (has to be one of them), Krieder/Sanguinetti, 1st round pick

Seems plausible. You can even throw in a conditional 2nd if he re-signs.


Truth is, Sather MUST go for Kovalchuk. Players like this guy rarely ever become available during FA. How many 50 goal scorers are out there? This guy has proven he can do it a few times and hes now entering his prime.

Kovalchuk-Prospal-Gaborik ... Main problem is they are both wingers and we have no depth down the middle, but we can only hope stepan comes in and fills his role.

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12-13-2009, 02:16 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmDeeZee4MVP View Post
I hear your point. If I may ask, (just out of curiosity) how are the Penguins able to afford to pay Crosby/Malkin while having a pretty strong supporting cast? The likes of Staal, Orpik, Guerin and Fleury. Working out the numbers seem possible, not easy, but possible. And you can still build an effective supporting cast.
They've had to suffer for keeping all of those players. They lost Scuderi this off-season and lost Malone to free agency 2 seasons ago. I don't pay attention to the Pens often, because I hate them so I really don't know much about who they lost.

Looking at their salaries on cap geek, it seems like they just lock up there role players and stars LT, and then fill in the rest of the positions with cheap UFAs.

Role players and Support- Fleury (5m per until 2015), Orpik (3.5M until 2014), Malkin ( 8.7M until 2014) , Crosby (8.7M until 2013), Kunitz (3.75 until 2012), Staal (4M until 2013), Gonchar (5M until this off-season), Letang (850k until this off-season) and Kennedy with the same deal as Letang.

Then you notice that the rest are players like Skoula, Rupp, Adams, McKee all on very cheap contracts. They know what players to lock up, and just fill the rest in with decent players from the FA market. You'll see them lose proabably one or two of Letang, Kennedy, Goligoski or Gonchar next year.

So to answer your question, they will suffer from all of the contracts they have, but it was really excellent planning by the GM.

You will see them lose some support player though, Kennedy

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12-13-2009, 02:19 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by ThirdEye View Post
I'd much rather tank than trade away half of prospects and probably our first round pick for Kovy. Hall can probably bring 75% of Kovalchuk's production in his first year here at 1/10th the cost, and we'll still have our prospects

Imo Kovalchuk is going to extremely expensive to obtain. Probably something like Dubinsky, Grachev, Sanguinetti and a first. No way Atlanta takes back a big contract
I agree, the cost of obtaining Kovy through trade would be too rich for my taste. However they might actually take a contract back in order to reach the cap floor next season. With Kovy gone and Kozlov and Kubina becoming UFA's on top of Kari Lehtonen becoming an RFA that they may not qualify they could struggle to reach the cap floor. Trading Kovy alone, not accounting for whatever small salary they would receive in return, would put them right at the floor.

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12-13-2009, 02:21 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by King Henrik 30 View Post
As I previously stated, is it possible? Of course. But it's going to cripple us (cap wise), especially after the end of next off-season.
Who cares? We'll have at least 3 superstars on the team: Koval, Gabby and Lundqvist, plus maybe DZ turns into a superstar within 2 years.

And we'll have tons of youth coming our way in the next few seasons. We'll be in very good position, and won't need to sign UFAs.

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12-13-2009, 02:24 PM
  #42
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Not only do I think he'll sign with Atlanta; I think everyone should read the Thrasher boards to see some of the frustrations that come with Kovalchuk. He's not like Gaborik, he's more like Jagr where you're going to have games where you're frustrated as hell with him.

We need to stay away from building that Russian sort of game and stick with a North American/Scandinavian style if we want to go anywhere in the future.

That being said, I guess you could liken a Gaborik/Kovalchuk lead team to that of a Crosby/Malkin lead team, but it's important to remember there are a handful of other pieces in place in Pittsburgh that we don't have and may not be able to have if we do somehow go out and get Kovalchuk.

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12-13-2009, 02:25 PM
  #43
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Who cares? We'll have at least 3 superstars on the team: Koval, Gabby and Lundqvist, plus maybe DZ turns into a superstar within 2 years.

And we'll have tons of youth coming our way in the next few seasons. We'll be in very good position, and won't need to sign UFAs.
Plus Drury comes off in 2 years after this one.

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12-13-2009, 02:26 PM
  #44
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I think the better direction to go would be to get one or two playmakers that are near point per game players, and surround them with 20-30 goal talent. If we filled the top 6 with legitimate top 6 talent, we'd be jsut as well off as if we had Gaborik, Kovalchuk, and a bunch of third liners...and we wouldn't be so restricted by the salary cap as we would be with Kovalchuk

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12-13-2009, 02:27 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by BrooklynHockey99 View Post
Who cares? We'll have at least 3 superstars on the team: Koval, Gabby and Lundqvist, plus maybe DZ turns into a superstar within 2 years.

And we'll have tons of youth coming our way in the next few seasons. We'll be in very good position, and won't need to sign UFAs.
Good point. Teams absolutely NEED stars if they want to win a cup.

Crosby/Malkin/Fleury (dear lord I hate them)
Datsyuk/Franzen/Zetterberg/Lidstrom

We have Gaborik/Lundqvist, but both are struggling because this team has no puck control, and opponents figured out how to shut down Gaborik... they use triple coverage lol.. not like it matters since no one else on this team can score.

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12-13-2009, 02:27 PM
  #46
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The only shot we have at Kovalchuk, is if he hits free-agency...

I don't see that happening though..

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12-13-2009, 02:32 PM
  #47
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Obtain Kovalchuk and sign him to a 12 year deal. Keep the cap hit around 6 mil, definitely do-able.

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12-13-2009, 02:37 PM
  #48
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l
I don't know why it isn't being talked about much anymore, but what happened to the supposed amnesty buy-out at the end of this season that was supposed to help teams struggling since the economy is lowering the salary cap? Did the NHL rule it out or something or is that still within the realm of possibility.

It's not being discussed anymore because the bad economy is not going to lower the cap. The strong Canadian dollar is going to keep the salary cap at status quo.

Quote:
The owners gather in the midst of tough financial times, much of it caused by the global recession. According to internal reports another governor shared with us, team sponsorship sales, as well as the sale of suites and premium seats, are down in most NHL markets, and markedly down in some cases. If that's the case, how can the salary cap possibly not go down next season? Well, because the Canadian dollar is up to 95 cents U.S. these days, a major bonus for the league since the six Canadian NHL teams reap more than a third of league revenues.

"So, in other words, ticket sales and sponsors are down, but the Canadian currency makes up the difference," the governor said.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/...=lebrun_pierre

Last year,the Canadian dollar reached a low of 78 cents during the season and the cap increased by $100,000. Their dollar is much stronger this season which offsets the dramatic decline. The cap might even increase.

Quote:
NHL governors will also be told next years salary cap is expected to change by as much as $2 million, although it's unclear whether the cap will go up or down by that amount.
http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/darren_dreger/?id=301862

The meetings are this week.Tuesday and Wednesday.

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12-13-2009, 02:42 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by levski87 View Post
I think you we need to look at the Marian Hossa type deal that Atlanta received when they dealt him to Pitts.

Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, prospect Angelo Esposito, 1st round pick

Dubinsky, Rozsival/Redden/Drury (has to be one of them), Krieder/Sanguinetti, 1st round pick

Seems plausible. You can even throw in a conditional 2nd if he re-signs.


Truth is, Sather MUST go for Kovalchuk. Players like this guy rarely ever become available during FA. How many 50 goal scorers are out there? This guy has proven he can do it a few times and hes now entering his prime.

Kovalchuk-Prospal-Gaborik ... Main problem is they are both wingers and we have no depth down the middle, but we can only hope stepan comes in and fills his role.
Well said. I too don't think its going to take a monstrous package to land IK as a rental, with a conditional pick if he signs with us. What pull does Waddell have in those trade negotiations? He can't threaten GM's and say "If you don't give me four big prospects + 1st, I'm not trading him and will re-sign him" If Kovy doesn't want to play there, then the Thrashers cannot raise their asking price, considering they know they can't bring him back next season. They will be forced to cut their losses and take a package similar to Hossa's.

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12-13-2009, 02:45 PM
  #50
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Continue on this downward spiral, sell at the deadline to free up space. Draft an excellent prospect (hopefully top 3) and sign Kovalchuk to a decent contract... Sign me up now.

Only thing I will not support is trading our farm/picks.

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