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Ilya Kovalchuk (Rumor Update: 01/02/10) Post #432

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Old
12-14-2009, 09:26 AM
  #101
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Originally Posted by SingnBluesOnBroadway View Post
If Kovalchuk wants to be a Ranger, he would be better suited to wait until the summer and then sign. That way the Rangers get a better pick. Also, wouldn't it stand to reason that Kovalchuk would want to play on a team that has Staal, Dubinsky and whatever that #1 pick turns into?
Absolutely. I think Kovalchuk is smart enough to realize that 50 goals from him would go a long way in terms of changing the fortunes of this team. Especially when he'd be playing along side one of the best wingers in the game in Gaborik.

If he makes it to free agency, there's a good chance he'll be a Ranger. However, I don't see that happening, and I don't see Sather parting with the necessary assets at the deadline to acquire him. Certainly not if we're in contention for a lottery pick.

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12-14-2009, 09:31 AM
  #102
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when I look at Atlanta I feel as though they're a goaltender away from being a serious cup contender if they keep Kovy. I don't know whos contract is up at the end of the year, but you have to figure Atlanta keeps Afinigenov if they keep Kovy, Antropov is locked up, theyve got Little, Kane, etc....they have a deep top 9. On top of their defense is great as well...Bogosian, Entsrom, Hainsey....

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12-14-2009, 12:20 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by theMessiah1194 View Post
do you mean over the top of the salary cap?

getting Kovy doesn't help our team identity issue, our leadership, or our toughness.

how many times do we (NYR) have to go down the superstar path? We all know its imperative to have one here, but why two? Becasue it worked out so well in the past? This franchise is doomed. nuff said.
You'll be surprised how nicely things unfold when you're winning. If you recall, during our (ever so distant) 7-game winning streak, nobody was complaining about Drury's leadership or lack there of. Nobody was complaining about Callahan's A on his sweater; in fact everyone was commending Torts for making that move. We were discussing how Dubinsky should be honored as an Altnerate, or if not him then Gabby because they both "lead" by example. I can go on and on. When you lose, you start over analyzing and criticizing (see thread about MDZ).

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12-14-2009, 02:55 PM
  #104
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Agree. A contract that was mentioned earlier this season was around 11 mill per season, now that's around 20% of the cap. Good luck building a contender around that.

While I dont see him getting that much if he hits free agency (Thrashers have to overpay) I do see him getting Ovie's money (9 to 9.5 mill a year).

Chances of us signing Kovy is about as same as us trading Redden or Drury. Pretty slim.
I thought more about this today at work, and even though the chances are pretty slim, it is possible to build a contender if you give him the right contract. Mrpuck beat me to it.

Quote:
It really would have to be a long term deal. 10 years minimum with money coming off on the end to bring the cap hit down.
While posting on here yesterday, I never took one of those Luongo/Hossa-like contracts into account. If we are able to give him a contract with an annual cap hit of 6 or 6.5 million, it would be so much easier to build a team. Think about it, that's pretty much moving Redden's contract in place of Kovalchuk's. Then, if your able to move Rosie, you'll have 5M to re-sign Staal and Girardi. If I'm Sather I'd also throw a LT contract at Staal similar to Kovy's, but with less money obviously.

If you think about it like that, the chances are better but still very slim. If Sather is able to move both Redden and Roszival (doubt it will happen) then Kovalchuk to NY is a big possibility. That is considering he hits the FA market.

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Originally Posted by Peter Sidorkiewicz View Post
4. Have you rangers fans ask yourself why Kovalchuk would leave Atlanta to go to a lesser team? I think he would prefer to play on a playoff team. If it weren't for Lundqvist and Gaborik, New York would be vying for a lottery pick.
I respected your post until I got up to this part. The Rangers are the biggest, wealthiest and most well-known U.S hockey organization. They play in the world's most well known arena, in one of the most well-known cities in the world. It is very hard to find any type of athlete who would not want to play in NY.

Kovalchuk's a elite player with tremendous skill, if he signs with New York his skill will be showcased more. No offense towrds your team, but Atlanta isn't really one of the most popular cities on this planet.

I also don't know how the Rangers are a "lesser team". They have been in the playoffs every year since the lockout and are only a couple of points out of a playoffs spot currently. I don't see how the Rangers are the "lesser team", especially considering the playoffs in 06-07.

Kovalchuk's been offered the LEAGUE MAX by the Thrashers, and most likely long term. Like RB said, there is pretty much a blank check for him, and he's not accepting it. Will he sign with the Thrashers? Who knows. But the more I sit here and analyze the situation the more I realize him signing with the Thrashers is becoming more unlikely.

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Old
12-14-2009, 02:57 PM
  #105
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10 bux says if he came to the Rangers, we'd see him in Brighton Beach all the time in the offseason

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12-14-2009, 03:02 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by theMessiah1194 View Post
We all know its imperative to have one here, but why two? Becasue it worked out so well in the past?
When was the last time they had 2 superstars?

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12-14-2009, 03:32 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
Undoubtedly true.



Another good point.



This is where you start to lose me. As good as Kovalchuk is, he would still be a rental. Asking for 4 extremely good young players to be part of the package is a little ridiculous. Unless he comes signed to a deal, no team is giving you that much. Especially if Atlanta refuses to take salary back.



Culture, for one. More exposure to a larger fanbase as well. Playing in a market like NY will raise Kovalchuks stock compared to the Ovechkins and Malkins of the league.

Yes, the Rangers are currently in the dumps, but it's not as if we're entering some long, drawn out rebuilding process here. Next season we should be in much better shape with guys like Grachev (hopefully) making the roster and if we finish in the top-10, we should have added a potential impact forward to an already strong stable of prospects. Add Kovalchuk to that mix and we're in great shape.

I'd be willing to be that no more than 2 years after Kovalchuk joined the Rangers, we'd be making a deep playoff run. Of course this is all moot since the Rangers can't afford Kovy unless he takes one of those new CBA-workaround deals.
The Thrashers got 4 talented young players for Hossa (Christensen was a promising player at the time) so I would imagine they should get at least the same if not better quality for a Kovalchuk trade.

If you want to analyse the Hossa deal in detail for New York's perspective it breaks down like this. Atlanta received 2 young roster players, a top prospect and a first round pick. The cap hits were low, so again they won't be interested in taking back any high salaries.

Looking at the players involved in detail:

Player Received: Colby Armstrong
Then: Gritty 3rd line winger with 20 goal potential.
NYR Player Comparison: Ryan Callahan
Fits with Atlanta's needs: Yes, Armstrong is an UFA and may jump ship at the end of the season. Callahan would be a good replacement.

Player Received: Erik Christensen
Then: Point per game AHLer, showed glimpses of 2nd line potential playing limited minutes on Pittsburgh's 3rd line.
NYR Player Comparison: Artem Anisimov
Fits with Atlanta's needs: No. Atlanta is strong at center with Antropov, Peverley, White and Reasoner. Anismov is no doubt talented but wouldn't get a game ahead of Atlanta four centers at the moment. Atlanta needs a player that can contribute straight away and its current biggest need is a shut down d-man. Replace Anisimov with Staal.

Player Received: Angelo Esposito
Then: Pittsburgh highest ranked forward prospect.
NYR Player Comparison: Evgeny Grachev, current New York highest ranked forward prospect
Fits with Atlanta's needs: Yes, likely replacement for Kozlov at the end of the season with Evander Kane earning Kovalchuk's spot.

Add the first round pick and you've have a basis of what Atlanta would minimum accept from New York: Callahan, Staal, Grachev, 1st Round Pick for Kovalchuk and a throw in like Jim Slater.

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12-14-2009, 03:35 PM
  #108
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Christensen is closer to Lisin than to Anismov, but thats IMO.

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Old
12-14-2009, 03:37 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Sidorkiewicz View Post
The Thrashers got 4 talented young players for Hossa (Christensen was a promising player at the time) so I would imagine they should get at least the same if not better quality for a Kovalchuk trade.

If you want to analyse the Hossa deal in detail for New York's perspective it breaks down like this. Atlanta received 2 young roster players, a top prospect and a first round pick. The cap hits were low, so again they won't be interested in taking back any high salaries.

Looking at the players involved in detail:

Player Received: Colby Armstrong
Then: Gritty 3rd line winger with 20 goal potential.
NYR Player Comparison: Ryan Callahan
Fits with Atlanta's needs: Yes, Armstrong is an UFA and may jump ship at the end of the season. Callahan would be a good replacement.

Player Received: Erik Christensen
Then: Point per game AHLer, showed glimpses of 2nd line potential playing limited minutes on Pittsburgh's 3rd line.
NYR Player Comparison: Artem Anisimov
Fits with Atlanta's needs: No. Atlanta is strong at center with Antropov, Peverley, White and Reasoner. Anismov is no doubt talented but wouldn't get a game ahead of Atlanta four centers at the moment. Atlanta needs a player that can contribute straight away and its current biggest need is a shut down d-man. Replace Anisimov with Staal.

Player Received: Angelo Esposito
Then: Pittsburgh highest ranked forward prospect.
NYR Player Comparison: Evgeny Grachev, current New York highest ranked forward prospect
Fits with Atlanta's needs: Yes, likely replacement for Kozlov at the end of the season with Evander Kane earning Kovalchuk's spot.

Add the first round pick and you've have a basis of what Atlanta would minimum accept from New York: Callahan, Staal, Grachev, 1st Round Pick for Kovalchuk and a throw in like Jim Slater.
I would not make that trade.

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Old
12-14-2009, 03:47 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by BroadwayBlues View Post
I would not make that trade.
Then you won't be getting Kovalchuk. The idea I proposed is a minimum. I have no doubt other teams could better that package.

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12-14-2009, 03:49 PM
  #111
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I dont even know why we are discussing a trade that is for a cup contending team. If Kovalchuk makes it to free agency that is one thing. But giving up a bunch of our assets for a rental player with no contract guarantee is retarded.

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12-14-2009, 03:54 PM
  #112
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angelo esposito was a failing prospect at the time he was traded, and is still a failing prospect, Grachev is still considered to be a very very very strong prospect.

IMHO Grachev isnt a comparable to Espo, im not sure we have someone like that, maybe Kreider, but i dont see him as being a bust, i see him as being a question mark that could easily go either way.

anyone who compares the value of Christensen to Staal is on drugs. sorry, thats not a comparable. Chris Higgins is a better bet, and a better player.

And you were getting a first rounder from a stanley cup contending team, not a lottery team (which we are at the moment anyway), that aint gonna fly either.

a more comparable deal would be something like, Sanguinetti, Callahan, Higgins, Lisin, and Ethan Werek or something like that.

Either way, I wouldnt pull the trigger on that deal. If the Thrashers trade Kovalchuk, that means he hasnt signed an extension. Which means he is almost guaranteed to hit the open market. Rangers will blow him away with a contract offer if that happens, and waive Redden and Rozsival to do it.

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12-14-2009, 03:55 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Fitzy View Post
Christensen is closer to Lisin than to Anismov, but thats IMO.
You're right if your making a comparison now but back in 2008, he was doing a good job on the third line and a lot of Pens fans thought he would do well in Atlanta as a top 6 forward with more minutes that couldn't received behind Crosby and Malkin.

Its unfortunate for Thrashers fans that he couldn't cut it on the first line playing with Kovalchuk although the team did get a good prospect in Eric O'dell when they traded him to Anaheim. Same thing also with regards to Esposito and his injuries woes.

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12-14-2009, 03:59 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by Peter Sidorkiewicz View Post
You're right if your making a comparison now but back in 2008, he was doing a good job on the third line and a lot of Pens fans thought he would do well in Atlanta as a top 6 forward with more minutes that couldn't received behind Crosby and Malkin.

Its unfortunate for Thrashers fans that he couldn't cut it on the first line playing with Kovalchuk although the team did get a good prospect in Eric O'dell when they traded him to Anaheim. Same thing also with regards to Esposito and his injuries woes.
Espo was/is a bust because he sucks, not because of injury woes imho. Being blunt here, because I felt the Thrashers got absolutely hosed in that deal, and history has shown, they most definitely were.

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12-14-2009, 03:59 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Peter Sidorkiewicz View Post
Then you won't be getting Kovalchuk. The idea I proposed is a minimum. I have no doubt other teams could better that package.
Well I guess not. If the Rangers get him it will be via FA.

Part of the appeal to getting Kovalchuk was keeping our first rounder-which currently is a lottery pick. And whoever that lottery pick will be; Hall or Seguin along with having Kovalchuk and building on that. Which is what the Rangers should be doing in this scenario.
Trading your lottery pick is basically exchanging a young cheap player (who would probably make as big an impact as Kovalchuk will if traded. in his rookie season) for a older (not old only 26) expensive player. AND throw in other assets; Staal Grachev Callahan.
Tell me where is the upgrade??????

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12-14-2009, 04:02 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by BroadwayBlues View Post
Well I guess not. If the Rangers get him it will be via FA.

Part of the appeal to getting Kovalchuk was keeping our first rounder-which currently is a lottery pick. And whoever that lottery pick will be; Hall or Seguin along with having Kovalchuk and building on that. Which is what the Rangers should be doing in this scenario.
Trading your lottery pick is basically exchanging a young cheap player (who would probably make as big an impact as Kovalchuk in his rookie season) for a older (not old only 26) expensive player. AND throw in other assets; Staal Grachev Callahan.
Tell me where is the upgrade??????
agreed.

the real mistake was to not trade for Heatley this offseason. Thats who we should have pulled the trigger for.

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12-14-2009, 04:04 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Inferno272 View Post
anyone who compares the value of Christensen to Staal is on drugs. sorry, thats not a comparable. Chris Higgins is a better bet, and a better player.

And you were getting a first rounder from a stanley cup contending team, not a lottery team (which we are at the moment anyway), that aint gonna fly either.
I never compared Christensen to Staal. No doubt Staal is more established than Anismov now and Christensen back in 2008 but given player in question (ie Kovlachuk) Atlanta should expect better quality players that what they got for Hossa and would obviously look first to fill their team needs like a shut down d-man, which is why Marc Staal would be the first player requested by Atlanta.

On your other point, at the time of the trade, I'm not sure if Pittsburgh were even a top 4 team of the conference. Hossa's acqusition made them a Stanley Cup contending team. Kovalchuk would probably lift New York out of the lottery and into the playoff seeds.

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12-14-2009, 04:08 PM
  #118
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Originally Posted by Peter Sidorkiewicz View Post
The Thrashers got 4 talented young players for Hossa (Christensen was a promising player at the time) so I would imagine they should get at least the same if not better quality for a Kovalchuk trade.

If you want to analyse the Hossa deal in detail for New York's perspective it breaks down like this. Atlanta received 2 young roster players, a top prospect and a first round pick. The cap hits were low, so again they won't be interested in taking back any high salaries.

Looking at the players involved in detail:

Player Received: Colby Armstrong
Then: Gritty 3rd line winger with 20 goal potential.
NYR Player Comparison: Ryan Callahan
Fits with Atlanta's needs: Yes, Armstrong is an UFA and may jump ship at the end of the season. Callahan would be a good replacement.

Player Received: Erik Christensen
Then: Point per game AHLer, showed glimpses of 2nd line potential playing limited minutes on Pittsburgh's 3rd line.
NYR Player Comparison: Artem Anisimov
Fits with Atlanta's needs: No. Atlanta is strong at center with Antropov, Peverley, White and Reasoner. Anismov is no doubt talented but wouldn't get a game ahead of Atlanta four centers at the moment. Atlanta needs a player that can contribute straight away and its current biggest need is a shut down d-man. Replace Anisimov with Staal.

Player Received: Angelo Esposito
Then: Pittsburgh highest ranked forward prospect.
NYR Player Comparison: Evgeny Grachev, current New York highest ranked forward prospect
Fits with Atlanta's needs: Yes, likely replacement for Kozlov at the end of the season with Evander Kane earning Kovalchuk's spot.

Add the first round pick and you've have a basis of what Atlanta would minimum accept from New York: Callahan, Staal, Grachev, 1st Round Pick for Kovalchuk and a throw in like Jim Slater.
Anisimov and Christensen are not even remotely comparable, let alone Staal and Christensen. Christensen was a journey-man type who was having a good season playing on a team that was dominant offensively. Saying "Oh we have too many centers, let's replace him with Staal" is just ridiculous. That's like me saying: "We have too many defensemen. Our need is a scoring winger, so replace Valabik with Kane."

There's also a difference between a PPG in the AHL at 22, vs a PPG at 19.

The same goes with Esposito vs Grachev. He may have been the highest ranked prospect according to this site, but Esposito was floundering in the Q and lets face it, any center in that organization is expendable. Just because they're the highest rated prospect in that organization, doesn't mean that dictates their value. Grachev is our top forward prospect, Kane is yours. Do you consider them interchangeable? How about Grachev and Tavares?

Just because the Thrashers ultimately wound up with one serviceable piece from the Hossa trade, that doesn't mean they're going to bend some team over for 3 months of Kovalchuk.

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12-14-2009, 04:08 PM
  #119
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Originally Posted by Peter Sidorkiewicz View Post
I never compared Christensen to Staal. No doubt Staal is more established than Anismov now and Christensen back in 2008 but given player in question (ie Kovlachuk) Atlanta should expect better quality players that what they got for Hossa and would obviously look first to fill their team needs like a shut down d-man, which is why Marc Staal would be the first player requested by Atlanta.

On your other point, at the time of the trade, I'm not sure if Pittsburgh were even a top 4 team of the conference. Hossa's acqusition made them a Stanley Cup contending team. Kovalchuk would probably lift New York out of the lottery and into the playoff seeds.
well, im not sure i agree with that, Callahan, our D is already pretty mediocre in their own end, you take away our best defensive defenseman and were going to be horrible in our own zone. he will help with the goals, but not much else though. most of my friends are Thrasher fans, so believe me, i know where you are coming from, but from my point of view, it would be a dumb trade to make long term. However if Kovy was locked up, then it makes sense because you dont have the chance to sign him in the offseason, but if my choices are
1)trade for kovalchuk now give up a huge part of our future to do it but possibly make a run for it this year

2)bank on him making it to free agency (no guarantee) and make a run for him then, possibly sacrificng this season, but keeping my youth in tact.

Ill go with 2.

i still think hes going to be re-upped in atlanta for 10-11 years.

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12-14-2009, 04:09 PM
  #120
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He would but it likely will be too late by that point.

Can you imagine if Washington somehow got Kovalchuk at the deadline? hahaha that would be pretty scary.

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12-14-2009, 04:13 PM
  #121
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Kovalchuk Dubinsky Gaborik
Avery Drury Higgins/Prospal (whoever is brought back)
Lisin Anisimov Kotalik


Redden Gilroy
Girardi Del Zotto
McDonagh Rozsival


Is NOT a upgrade compared to:


Kovalchuk Hall Gaborik (I'm obviously assuming the Rangers land Hall or even Seguin)
Avery Dubinsky Callahan
Drury Anisimov Grachev


Staal McDonaugh
Girardi Del Zotto
Redden Gilroy


Do I have to ask which team is better more potential? That is why I don't trade for Kovalchuk if I'm the Rangers. If we get him it will be FA. If we don't oh well.

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12-14-2009, 04:16 PM
  #122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fitzy View Post
He would but it likely will be too late by that point.

Can you imagine if Washington somehow got Kovalchuk at the deadline? hahaha that would be pretty scary.
Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin
Kovalchuk-Morrison-Knuble

Something like that? Yikes.

Can you imagine their powerplay? :X

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12-14-2009, 04:19 PM
  #123
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To Blues... Man, our problem is that we have only one line that can score. So even if, Hall( who would have a cap hit of like 4 in bonuses) and Kovalchuk fell into our hands, there is no way that they would all skate a regular strength shift together.

try to bring 2 lines with a top scoring threat, instead of one. That way you can have one of the nhls top players on the ice potentially 45 minuted out of 60 during a game.

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12-14-2009, 04:25 PM
  #124
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I'd love to see Kovy on the Rangers, but I seriously can't see it happening. I think Atlanta will re-sign him, and even if they can't come to terms, how would we fit him on the team?

People think Redden and Rozy can get waived, well what happens to our defense now? Staal-Girardi, Gilroy-Del Zotto, Heik-Sangs?

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12-14-2009, 04:25 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BroadwayBlues View Post
I would not make that trade.
me either. I'll take my chances on Grachev and finding a 30-40 goal scorer via trade or free agency, which could easily be Kovalchuk. Not ready to give up on Grachev yet.

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