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Let's talk 'The Transition' - 2010/2011

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Old
12-14-2009, 08:02 PM
  #1
Mossy Oak
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Let's talk 'The Transition' - 2010/2011

I have been pondering a few thoughts quite a bit in the last week or so and I thought it would make for a good discussion. We've got a young, exciting group of kids in Albany who look to make the transition to the big club full time next season.

I'll start off by listing what I think could potentially be on our roster, then ask a few questions I have been tossing around.

Let's just say we do land a top 2 pick and get one of the prize picks in Hall or Seguin.

Forwards that could be on the team next season,

Staal, Hall/Seguin, Ruutu, Cole, Sutter, Boychuk, Bowman, Tlusty, Samson, Jokinen, Kostopoulos, Dodge, Chaput, LaRose, Brind'Amour, Samsonov. Angelidis & Blanchard will be 25 & 23 years of age to begin the season, they've got AHL experience under their belt and could possibly be ready for a checking role aswell.

A few quesitions...

That is a whopping 16 forwards, subtract the potential addition of Hall/Seguin and we're still at 15.

Brind'Amour - What happens here? Does he retire? Do we buy him out? Does he actually come back to finish out his contract and does JR allow that to happen? It would be a shame for Brindy to take a spot from one of the kids who deserves it and derserve to be here, especially in the bottom 6 where Dodge or Chaput, or both could be.

Samsonov - What does this guy really bring to the table? We've got guys like Tlusty, Boychuk, Bowman and potentially Hall or Seguin who can all play LW and all need to be in the top 9 for obvious reasons. In my opinion there will be no need for Samsonov and there is no need for him to be a road block in terms of taking a position from one of the kids. Either a trade, if that's even possible, or a buyout has to be in order in my opinion.

Let's look at the potential top 9... - Staal, Ruutu, Cole, Sutter, Boychuk, Bowman, Tlusty, Jokinen, Samson. If we get lucky and have Hall or Seguin, that adds to it. Pretty good, young depth.

Chuck Kobasew - UFA July 1st. I'd still like the guy on this team for one, to see what he could potentially do with Staal, but aside from that I think he'd be a solid guy to have and one JR has always wanted. Does JR somehow make way for him? If he doesn't re-sign in Minnesota, I think it could make an interesting topic come the offseason.

What will we get in return for some of our season ending UFA - Whitney, Cullen, Corvo to name the most attractive. If we get prospects who can make the jump next season... again, this will add to the mix if they're forwards. I personally think JR should focus on defensive prospects, we're fairly thin on the blueline.

Taking a look at the blueline...

What we know -

Gleason, Pitkanen & Alberts are locked up. Carson looks like he could handle a bottom pairing role. That leaves 2 top 4 positions open. Does McBain jump in? Thats a question mark and unknown right now. We'll see how he develops the rest of the year and how he looks in training camp next year I suppose. As of right now it doesn't look like he would be ready for top 4 duty. Cam Barker would be a nice fit, so would Dan Hamhuis, a UFA in July.

A potential blueline I wouldn't mind seeing,

Pitkanen, Gleason, Barker, Hamhuis, Carson & Alberts.

The Goaltending -

I think goaltending is pretty well set with a tandem of Ward & Peters.


What do you see the roster looking like next October? Who makes 'the transition'? Who does JR cut ties with? Potential signings you'd like to see?

A lot of these questions are obviously to be answered another day, but it's fun to speculate, think about, share opinions on, etc.


Last edited by Mossy Oak: 12-14-2009 at 08:18 PM.
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12-14-2009, 08:19 PM
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Guy
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I could get behind another year of Legace as backup goaltender. I'm not necessarily sold on Peters as the backup seeing as how he has yet to play a game at this level. Count me in as extremely pumped that Leighton will be sent packing.

I will be taking trade deadline day off from work to watch the excitement league-wide. I hope we fire off a lot of folks for picks/prospects.

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12-14-2009, 08:36 PM
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OrioleWay
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First of all i think Brindy will retire... or he will ask for trade. But i don't see him next year here. I don't know for Corvo... let's see how will Carson in next few months. If he plays good, give him spot in top 6 next year and play McBain in NHL too.

I really dream JR to sign Willie Mitchell.

Then you have it Pitkanen- Gleason and Mitchell- McBain in top 4. Alberts and one of Carson, Rodney and Bellemore for last spot. Carson is best choice but we will see. Or maybe Carson for top 4 and McBain in bottom pairing.

If we get Hall, you can think for something like Hall- Staal- Ruutu, Boychuk- Sutter- Cole, Tlusty- Jokinen- Bowman or Samson and another dream for 4th line - Blanchard- Angelidis- Kosto.

I really want to get rid of Samsonov and Larose. We can take it some picks or above average prospects for them, can't we? Cullen is nice and will be happy to see him next year again here but... this maybe means not spot for Tlusty, Bowman and Samson ( Jokinen- Cullen- Bowman/Samson/ Tlusty). Dodge and Chaput - no room for them. They will lead Albany next season with Terry and Kennedy imo.

I know most of the canes fans really likes Bowman but this kid Samson is deal. He deserves chances in NHL before Bowman. He's absolutely ready. Sorry Drayson.

But we know JR, so team will be:

Samsonov- Staal- Cole
Hall- Cullen- Ruutu
Jokinen- Sutter- Tlusty
Kosto- Brindy- Larose

this sux.

Give me

Hall- Staal- Ruutu
Boychuk- Sutter- Cole
Tlusty- Jokinen- Samson
Blanchard- Angelidis- Kosto

Pitkanen- Gleason
Mitchell- McBain
Alberts- Carson

Wardo
who cares

Give Gleason C, give Ruutu A and let's play finally some good hockey. If we get this... this team will be fresh, young and unbelievable fast. Not good PK but we have Wardo .

Too much NHL 09 or it's a good?

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12-14-2009, 09:06 PM
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Depending on how much money PK is willing to spend, how things shake out in the draft (if for some unfortunate reason we start winning or we lose the lottery), and whatever happens with Brind'amour, Samsonov and LaRose...I'd like to see this lineup via trades, free-agency signings, and prospects getting called up.

Alexander Frolov /Taylor Hall - Eric Staal "A" - Erik Cole
Jussi Jokinen - Matt Cullen "A" - Tuomo Ruutu
Andrew Ladd - Brandon Sutter - Jiri Tlusty
Taylor Pyatt - Manny Malhotra - Tom Kostopoulos

Joni Pitkanen - Tim Gleason "C"
Cam Barker - Joe Corvo
Brett Carson - Andrew Alberts

Cam Ward
Manny Legace

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12-14-2009, 09:26 PM
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Boom Boom Anton
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Personally, I am much more worried about defense than offense next year. I think there are a lot of options on offense.

As was stated....there is a chance for some good young forwards to be in the mix (Boychuk, Sutter, Hall/Sequin). Heck, if need be, we could probably even get Whitney and/or Cullen for a short term deal at a reasonable price (and I think they'll still play fine next year).

What I worry about is Samsonov, BrindAmour and Larose. Keeping all 3 would be hard to swallow.

What I think will happen is that Brindy will be gone. That will leave us with the following forwards: Staal, Hall/Seguin, Cole, Ruutu, LaRose, Boychuk, Jokinen, Sutter, Samsonov, Kostopolus, Tlusty, Samson. Dwyer and Bowman will get some time when injuries occur.

Unless the organization thinks that Boychuk and/or Hall/Seguin are not ready for full time NHL duty, I don't see JR going out and signing any forwards.

As I said, Defense worries me. Pitkanen, Gleason, and Alberts are 3 for sure. I would think Carson would be one of the top 6. That leave two slots that we really can't fill with AHL callups IMO if we want to be competitive so I think he has to get them via FA or trade.

My guess is that either Seidenburg or Babchuk will be 1 and another trade or FA will be the other. Personally, I'd still like to see Bieksa as a Cane. I think he is an all around good player with a little bit of a mean streak. I know the Canucks fans aren't as high on him this season..but I still think he has a lot left and will add some toughness.

So my D prediction is:

Gleason - Pitkanen
Bieksa - Seidenburg
Alberts - Carson

I think keeping Manny as a backup next year is good. Peters needs to play in the AHL for another year or be traded and make room for Murphy.


Last edited by Boom Boom Anton: 12-14-2009 at 09:27 PM. Reason: added goalie
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12-14-2009, 09:28 PM
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Guy
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We can just bump this after every playoff run and call it "so what do we do for the next 3 years?"

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12-14-2009, 09:46 PM
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DaveG
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I really don't want to see us going after any high end forwards unless we happen to miss out of the Hall/Seguin sweepstakes. There aren't a lot of high end forwards in this draft with Granlund and Kabanov being the only other two, and we KNOW that JR will NEVER draft Kabanov. The salary we lose I'd love to see us spend on shoring up the defense in free agency. Look hard at guys like Hamhuis, Mitchell, Zidlicky, Leopold, Volchenkov, possibly bring Seidenberg or Corvo back. Give one or two of the young guys a chance to fill in the other slots.

For next season:
Taylor Hall - Eric Staal - Tuomo Ruutu
Zach Boychuk - Brandon Sutter - Erik Cole
Jiri Tlusty - Jussi Jokinen - Jerome Samson or Sergei Samsonov
Chad LaRose - Mike Angelidis - Tom Kostopoulos
Nicolas Blanchard

Joni Pitkanen - Tim Gleason
Willie Mitchell - Dan Hamhuis
Andrew Alberts - Brett Carson
Brian Rodney

Cam Ward
Manny Legace or Justin Peters

Other options are Stefan Chaput, Nick Dodge and Drayson Bowman but other then Dodge I think they would be better served in the AHL for one more year. I think Brindy retires after the year and hopefully we can find a taker for one of LaRose and Samsonov. I think we have a good shot of it with LaRose.


Last edited by DaveG: 12-14-2009 at 10:34 PM. Reason: yep, Legace =/= Leighton
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Old
12-14-2009, 10:27 PM
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dmonk
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Wait, Dave... are you seriously projecting to have Leighton as a backup next year again?

tell me it was a typo. otherwise, you have some 'xplaining to do.

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12-14-2009, 10:28 PM
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^amen. either call up peters and get him some games or resign legace for another year.

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12-14-2009, 10:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmonk View Post
Wait, Dave... are you seriously projecting to have Leighton as a backup next year again?

tell me it was a typo. otherwise, you have some 'xplaining to do.
Sorry, meant Legace. Simple math I need to remember. Legace =/= Leighton

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Old
12-14-2009, 10:50 PM
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Cardiac_Canes
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Since when did Angelidis become NHL material? I don't think he is and I've never heard anyone else mention him until now.

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12-14-2009, 11:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardiac_Canes View Post
Since when did Angelidis become NHL material? I don't think he is and I've never heard anyone else mention him until now.
He seems to have taken a pretty big jump with Albany this year from what I've seen. He'll never be anything more then a 4th liner but he could be a pretty good agitator out there.

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12-15-2009, 12:16 AM
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Vagrant
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My "realistic" as in, what is likely to happen, lineup.

Taylor Hall - Eric Staal - Tuomo Ruutu
Jiri Tlusty - Brandon Sutter - Erik Cole
Sergei Samsonov - Jussi Jokinen - Chad Larose
Tom Kostopoulos - Nick Dodge - Patrick Dwyer

With this group, Brind'Amour obviously retires. I don't see any realistic way that we are able to get Samsonov, Cole, or Larose off the roster with their contracts short of waiving them. Zach Boychuk starts the year in Albany due to his fairly slow development. Boychuk and Bowman have both had their challenges to start their AHL career and the contracts we have on the books may keep them there until the deadline when we can possibly unload those guys for rental prices. Unfortunately with those three, it seems like the only way we can get rid of them would be to buy them out as they have no trade value. Perhaps JR can surprise us and pull off something to rid ourselves of the Samsonov or Cole contracts in particular. If that happens, then obviously it would be nice to see Boychuk slide up into that vacancy. Samson would be another candidate based on his impressive play in the AHL for the past few years, but with the acquisition of Tlusty it seems like Samson was buried even more for the foreseeable future, which is a shame. Nick Dodge beats out other options for the 4th line for me because he has that grit but he also has fantastic hands and is a great faceoff man and penalty killer, which is a void that is open for us with the departure of Brind'Amour. He is smaller in stature, but he's willing to go to the dirty areas and is an ideal team player. He had a hell of a year in the AHL last year and is doing decent enough this year. I could see him even ceiling out on the 3rd line in a year or two. Better than average grinder hands, fantastic hustle, and a tremendous defensive player. Patrick Dwyer is going to be the annual recipient of the "AHL traveler of the year", contract award from Carolina. JR develops a soft spot for players he has leaned upon to travel back and forth between the AHL and NHL. Ryan Bayda, Tim Conboy, etc. As opposed to replacing him with somebody "younger" with more potential he'll just go with the guy he can count on.

Now here is my fantasy, "who would you like to see here", lineup for the forwards:

Taylor Hall - Eric Staal - Tuomo Ruutu
Jiri Tlusty - Brandon Sutter - Jussi Jokinen
Drayson Bowman - Zach Boychuk - Jerome Samson
Tom Kostopoulos - Nick Dodge - Stefan Chaput

Again, that's unrealistic and chock full of AHL players that haven't full developed but it's scary to think that a few of these guys might slip through the cracks because of our team depth and veterans keeping them back. I say if we're going to go young, then do it right. See who has what it takes to stick it out up here. However, I think the more realistic option has us mixing up the veterans and young players and trying to make a big push.


Now the realistic defense options:

Tim Gleason - Joni Pitkanen
UFA - Jamie McBain
Andrew Alberts - Brett Carson

It looks like everybody is on the same page with the bottom pairing being Alberts and Carson, which seems like the likely route. I think Pitkanen and Gleason is a pretty good bet too. Now here is where it gets sketchy. My gut tells me that Carolina will likely try one of two strategies and it's totally unpredictable which way they will go. They will either try to find TWO diamond in the rough type defensemen that have been under utilized on other teams for $1.5 to $2.5 million each. Either that or they elevate Jamie McBain, *highly* dependent on how his final 40 or so games in the AHL this season go, and try to work him into the Top 4 rotation. They'll evaluate him at the end of the year and if they feel he can contribute next year, then they can pool all their resources and really go hard after one of the very good defensemen like Hamhuis that are available. Still the possibility looms that JR may use that money to overpay Joe Corvo.... which is a very scary proposition. Not that Corvo is a bad fit or anything, it's just that he's more of the same. The room needs a total overhaul and sometimes the idea of losing a still productive UFA isn't the worst thing that can happen to your hockey team. Carolina seems to go balls out after their own guys in free agency. Scott Walker, Ray Whitney..... every other free agent we've ever had. I can barely remember the last time a UFA contract of a productive player expired on this team and we didn't try to retain them short of the Commodore/Stillman trade. Historical precedent says that we'll likely extend a healthy offer to Corvo.

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12-15-2009, 12:22 AM
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trade deadline this year:
LA:Whitney
CAR:Teubert+ whatever

CHI:Cullen and Corvo
CAR:Sopel and Ladd

Retire:Brind'Amour

Buyout:Samsanov

Draft Hall

Sign Hamhius

Hall-Staal-Ladd
Boychuk-Sutter-Cole
Tlusty-Jokinen-Ruutu
TKO-UFA-LaRose

Pitkanen-Gleason
Hamhius-Teubert/McBain/Carson
Alberts-Sopel

Ward
Peters


Last edited by Scorvo: 12-15-2009 at 12:30 AM.
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Old
12-15-2009, 12:43 AM
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cptjeff
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Guys, Samsonov got 48 points last year and made 2.3 million. That's about the dead middle of the pay range for that kind of production, it's hardly the bloated contract that could never be traded Cole's or Brindy's is.

Remember, he started out extremely slow last year too. It's not unreasonable to think that he might pick up the pace a good bit, especially as he was playing injured for stretches. On the other hand, he's not exactly a Maurice type player.

There is a legit discussion to be had as to his place on the team next year. But please, please, stop the buyout talk. He's nowhere near that bad. And we don't buyout unless it's really a hopeless case. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if we could get a half decent return at this year's deadline.

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12-15-2009, 01:20 AM
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Vagrant
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cptjeff View Post
Guys, Samsonov got 48 points last year and made 2.3 million. That's about the dead middle of the pay range for that kind of production, it's hardly the bloated contract that could never be traded Cole's or Brindy's is.

Remember, he started out extremely slow last year too. It's not unreasonable to think that he might pick up the pace a good bit, especially as he was playing injured for stretches. On the other hand, he's not exactly a Maurice type player.

There is a legit discussion to be had as to his place on the team next year. But please, please, stop the buyout talk. He's nowhere near that bad. And we don't buyout unless it's really a hopeless case. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if we could get a half decent return at this year's deadline.
The thing about Samsonov is that when he's not scoring and producing offense, he's the epitome of useless out there. I say that with as much affection as I can possibly say it with. He is a virtual liability out there in the defensive end, he has no physicality, he stick handles and actually not only throws his own game off when he's playing badly but creates a line that simply cannot have success by virtue of his dipsy doodle exhibitions keeping the puck away from not only the opposition but also from his linemates.

When he is on the ice, he commands the puck like a superstar might but does very little to prove he deserves it when his hand has gone cold. And I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the second generation of Sergei Samsonov found himself jobless and NHL hopeless at the start of the season much like Samsonov found himself before the Hurricanes took a chance on him. If Maxim Afinogenov, who is almost a carbon copy of Samsonov with better speed, cannot find work here as a free agent while in the midst of his struggles then the hope for Samsonov being able to find a taker on waivers at $2.53 million with 10 points in 30 games and a -11 to go with it is belly laugh inducing.

I would agree that it's not unreasonable to think that he could flip the switch and finish the season in the 45 point range, but for the headache of his first 30 games who is really going to want to take on that kind of investment at $2.5 million?

30-40 points while grinding and banging and playing responsible defense is going to beat 40 points while floating every day of the week.

I enjoy watching Samsonov, but at a point you have to recognize the risk/reward of a player and know that he's just not going to be able to offer up anything substantial anymore. He could just as easily from game to game go -3 with 0 points as he could have 2 assists and a +1. That kind of inconsistency is not welcome on any squad in the Top 6 and that is the conundrum. When you have a player like Samsonov or Afinogenov or even Ray Whitney, if they're not going to play in your Top 6 then you don't have a job for them. The 3rd line is usually reserved for players that are responsible both ways and the Top 6 is a hard place to stay for 10+ years in the NHL when you're as historically streaky as Samsonov has been. At some point you wear out your welcome regardless of how hot your hand gets sometimes.

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12-15-2009, 01:32 AM
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I like Sammy, I really do but he's mostly all flash and no production (48 points is nice and all but he got all sorts of ice time last year on the top 2 lines). In one game he'll look like one of the most skilled offensive players then like one of the most useless players in the NHL. If we're rebuilding and Samsonov is not part of future plans (which he isn't) then I see nothing wrong with buying him out if it saves us some money and allows us to give some of the younger guys a chance. He would be a serviceable player for a playoff team in need of secondary scoring that already has several talented forwards. The Canes aren't that team. If he were a UFA at years end, I think several teams would look at him, but sadly that isn't the case either. Most teams can't afford ~$3 million for a player like him.


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12-15-2009, 01:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorvo View Post
trade deadline this year:
LA:Whitney
CAR:Teubert+ whatever
That's like saying we could get a mid-first rounder for Whitney seeing as Teubert went top 15 last year. No way does L.A. do this let alone have to add anything in unless they're really confident they can make a strong push for the cup and feel that Whitney can make the difference. Their defensive depth may allow such a move but still it seems like an overpayment.

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12-15-2009, 02:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardiac_Canes View Post
That's like saying we could get a mid-first rounder for Whitney seeing as Teubert went top 15 last year. No way does L.A. do this let alone have to add anything in unless they're really confident they can make a strong push for the cup and feel that Whitney can make the difference. Their defensive depth may allow such a move but still it seems like an overpayment.
I would disagree with that sentiment. I think we take for granted to a slight degree how much value Ray Whitney has around the league due to the circumstances in which we acquired him. Since then, he has virtually reinvented himself as a player and become about as respected as any non-physical winger can be in his age group.

I have been searching my brain trying to think of a comparable deadline player but the closest I can remember would be Olli Jokinen and Sergei Samsonov from Boston to Edmonton. Samsonov fetched a capable veteran hand (Reasoner), a fairly strong prospect at the time in Yan Stastny, and a 2nd Round Pick which was around the middle of the round. Olli Jokinen drew Lombardi, Prust, and a 1st round pick.

I understand that both of these players are younger than Whitney, but with deadline rentals age is obviously of nominal concern. It is all about production. I don't find it unreasonable at all to think that if Whitney would agree to be traded, his value would equate to a 1st round pick from whatever team inquired. The possibility of Whitney being one of the best scorers available at the deadline sends that possibility comfortably into the realm of likely to happen.

Plus, being part of two deep runs with Carolina in the past few years gives teams a presence in the room that can be invaluable to a contending team. While the tangible production for him has been a departure from his regular season totals in those runs (42 GP - 12G - 15A - 27P), they still represent him being able to lend a hand.

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Old
12-15-2009, 08:15 AM
  #20
Mossy Oak
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Regarding Samsonov, for me the problem is I see him as a potential roadblock for one if the kids who could in all likelihood play his role, and possibly better. If we're looking at a potential top 9 of Staal, Ruutu, Cole, Sutter, Boychuk, Bowman, Samson, Jokinen, Tlusty... potentially Hall.

Of course this really comes down to a few things that could play out in different ways. Do we get a top 2 pick? Is Bowman ready, even for 3rd line and PP minutes? I think he could be, also seeing the pretty good, young depth we've got, he'd be with pretty good linemates. A role such as the mentioned could be good. But we will definitely have to sit back and see how he does the rest of the season in Albany. One thing is certain and that is the kid has the drive and desire to be here, so we'll see what he does to earn a spot.

Samsonov could very well have a spot still open on the 3rd line, but, my point sits at if Bowman looks good, or we do get a gem like Hall, we've now got another winger in Tlusty, we've got to make room for these guys if it looks like they're ready to go and to not have one here because Samsonov is taking a 3rd line LW spot, shouldn't happen. Ever.

For me the second half of the season for Albany is going to be a very interesting one in the fact that the kids now have the transition feeling out of the way. Now is the time when they'll likely become adjusted, comfortable, etc. We could really see guys like Boychuk and Bowman take off here, I sure hope so.

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Old
12-15-2009, 08:28 AM
  #21
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Fair points about the negative(s) of Samsonov, but none of them warrant the drastic measure of buying him out.

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12-15-2009, 09:18 AM
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Originally Posted by geehaad View Post
Fair points about the negative(s) of Samsonov, but none of them warrant the drastic measure of buying him out.
I agree and though he can be maddening with his endless puck-handling weaves to nowhere he still fills a void even if he isn't scoring. He is an excellent passer and playmaker when he decides the puck isn't velcro'd to his stick. The Canes still have weak playmaking centers down the depth chart and you need a guy like him to compensate, just as Whitney has done for years.

The other thing about him that doesn't get much attention is that, despite his rep for being soft, he actually puts up a decent fight for the puck along the boards. He isn't physical but he seems to understand angles and positioning and keeps fighting when other guys stand back.

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12-15-2009, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Cardiac_Canes View Post
That's like saying we could get a mid-first rounder for Whitney seeing as Teubert went top 15 last year. No way does L.A. do this let alone have to add anything in unless they're really confident they can make a strong push for the cup and feel that Whitney can make the difference. Their defensive depth may allow such a move but still it seems like an overpayment.
Alot of people seem to think we can get a first for Whitney, so this would be similar. Obviously they think that the first would be later in the first than where Teubert went. LA has a TON of defensive prospects in their system, many of whom I bet are ahead of Teubert on their depth chart. With Scuderi and Greene on long term deals and Johnson and Doughty seeming to be locks for their defense that leaves Teubert, Martinez, Hickey, and Voynov competing for spots as well. One of these guys may be available for a solid playoff push for LA.

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12-15-2009, 02:18 PM
  #24
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Originally Posted by Scorvo View Post
Alot of people seem to think we can get a first for Whitney, so this would be similar.
I'm not saying that this is the case, because I know nothing of Teubert, but the difference to always be mindful of is what his value is *today*. If he's out-performed his mid-first round rating of 18 months ago, or he's lagging behind others drafted with him.

The other thing to be mindful of is the fact that a team looking to add a player like Whitney at the deadline is likely to be looking at a very low draft pick, so even if we're talking straight-up draft position with Teubert, he's a #13, whereas a trading partner is probably down in the 20s.

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