Hi all. Just wanted to share some numbers that you guys might find interesting. I wanted to see what the progress of the team was like in certain key statistical categories throughout the season, so I decided to chunk it up in to 10 and 11 game sets. I'm going to keep doing this for the rest of the games (all 10 game sets starting with today's game). I just used NHL.com data for this:
First 11 Games
Next 10 Games
Last 11 Games
I'm also computing shot differential ranges, but I haven't figured out how best to present them yet. If anybody wants to see any different data, let me know.
EDIT: I've added PP% and OPP% to the stats. Interesting.
Last edited by theranfordflop: 12-15-2009 at 02:46 PM.
Two things I initially noticed when looking at these numbers:
1. The Oilers have drastically improved in shots for, but that improvement can also been seen in the second 10 game set, in which we had our worst losing stretch of the season.
2. The average shooting percentage of a team through an 82 game season is usually in the 9% to 10% range. So we were really beating the odds in the first 11 games we played, but then really fell through the floor. In our last ten we were at about average, perhaps a bit higher than average.
IMO, injuries didn't really impede the team as much as people suspected. In my eyes the numbers are typical of a developing team. First they learned how to get more pucks on net, then they gradually figured out how to convert those to goals.
What do you guys see happening in the next ten games?
Well, I think the numbers show more than that. It's often said (usually by MacTavish) that sometimes on the road to getting better, you lose some games that you probably should win. It's the definition of growing pains.
I think the numbers tell that tale. Even in that 2-6-2, all of the teams shooting stats improved. And the oppositions chances have roughly been about the same, slightly on the positive side.
It's easy to look at the record and say, "well they were a bad team during that stretch." But when you actually watch the games, particularly against teams like Buffalo, Ottawa, CBJ, and Atlanta, they really weren't that bad, and actually carried the play. If they actually got half the points they deserved there, they would have been around 4-4-2 in that span, not all that bad. And the numbers support that viewing of the teams performance.
It would be a good prognostication to say that the Oilers will not have a stretch of games as bad as 2-6-2 for the rest of the season. I don't think injuries will have that kind of effect on this team any more. They may slide to more of a .500 record in future 10 game chunks, but I think that's as low as they go. My guess is that won't be enough to get them in to the playoffs, but it's not too bad for this year.
And as we've seen lately, the sky's the limit.
Last edited by theranfordflop: 12-15-2009 at 02:56 PM.
i figured out after the vancouver game that the oil needed 6 points every 5 games for the rest of the season to make 90pts, cutoff for the last 2 seasons in the west was 91pts. well they have 10 in the last 5. if they now go 6pts every 5 they will be at 94pts end of season. i am still giving them a chance to make the dance, as they are still picking up the message from mr.quinn. i say they go, on avg. , 6-3-1 in their 10 game stretches. still think a "real" top line center would put us over the top. wish list- third line center to win some draws( at less than 5.5 mil ) and a bonified shut down d-man.
Last edited by oil101: 12-15-2009 at 02:55 PM.
Reason: cant add to 10
Adding the PP numbers in also tells an interesting tale. We were better on the PP during that losing stretch than we are now. In fact, the past 11 games have been horrible for us on the PP... Yet we're still winning games?
The good news though is that we're improving slowly on the PK, and if we can supplement the mostly consistent play with better PP performances all around, then we'll be a pretty tough team to grab a win off of.
Could the low PP numbers be another part of the growing pains we're seeing? Where do you guys think the PP will rank by the end of the season. My guess... 21% top 10 in the league.
While the record has looked good for two stretches of the season, the goals against has been terrible all year long. I honestly do not think they can maintain a goals for above 3 for long stretches, so I see a see-saw season being the norm. Unless the defense tightens up substantially that is, which could happen now that Gilbert is playing better and if we could remove Struds from the lineup. While I supported Strudwick in the past, he has been brutal for giveaways this year. He is not a really bad option for a 7th dman, but not really all that great when forced into action.
Overall, the numbers tell me not to be too optimistic. I think it is too easy to see two good stretches and one bad one and think that the team is in fact substantially better than it is. Sadly, another losing streak is just around the corner and that isn't too great when they are already out of a playoff position.
As for PP% I think most teams have a tendency to get hot and cool down for stretches. We are much better at home on the PP, so the road trip (even though successful) was detrimental to the PP%.