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01-04-2010, 08:00 PM
  #26
sammyp
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Saku Koivu is the ideal second line center. He bring an invaluable combination of skills, intangibles, playoff history, and leadership to the table. Couple all of that with an affordable contract and there's no way that package is worth only a late second-round draft pick. I know this is HFboards -- the home of the overvalued draft pick -- but come on now.

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01-04-2010, 08:04 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vipers31 View Post
Yes, I have actually watched many Ducks games. I'm not saying they are playing badly at all. But playing well for a while doesn't alter trade value so quickly and so dramatically. I have absolutely no problem with their performances and therefore am not keen to see them in a trade.

I am just voicing my opinion that your expectations of a return are unrealistic.
It seems maybe you haven't seen enough of them to get a good sense of their respective values. I might be wrong, but that's the feeling I get from reading your posts in this thread.

Lupul especially has been a spectacular addition. Murray wouldn't move him for a first, let alone a second.

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01-04-2010, 08:07 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyp View Post
Saku Koivu is the ideal second line center. He bring an invaluable combination of skills, intangibles, playoff history, and leadership to the table. Couple all of that with an affordable contract and there's no way that package is worth only a late second-round draft pick. I know this is HFboards -- the home of the overvalued draft pick -- but come on now.
I might end up shooting myself in the foot with this question, but who was the last second line center to fetch a first round pick at the deadline?

I am not even disagreeing about the way you see him. I would pretty much describe him with the same words, only coming to a different conclusion given all deals that have happened in the last 18 to 24 months which draw a rather clear picture on the value of 1st round picks. Koivu is indeed an ideal 2nd line center for a team that does not already have one. I still don't see how an ideal 35 year old UFA 2nd line center with 23 points in 37 games will net you a first round pick in today's NHL...

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01-04-2010, 08:10 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyp View Post
It seems maybe you haven't seen enough of them to get a good sense of their respective values. I might be wrong, but that's the feeling I get from reading your posts in this thread.

Lupul especially has been a spectacular addition. Murray wouldn't move him for a first, let alone a second.
Well, in my opinion it's rather a difference in opinion in putting a price tag on said and seen performances. I would not debate Lupul being a great addition, that's the way I see it as well. I also do not doubt that he would not move him for a second round pick. When it comes to a first round pick I have no doubt Murray would at least take a look at where the other team ranks...

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01-04-2010, 08:29 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vipers31 View Post
I might end up shooting myself in the foot with this question, but who was the last second line center to fetch a first round pick at the deadline?

I am not even disagreeing about the way you see him. I would pretty much describe him with the same words, only coming to a different conclusion given all deals that have happened in the last 18 to 24 months which draw a rather clear picture on the value of 1st round picks. Koivu is indeed an ideal 2nd line center for a team that does not already have one. I still don't see how an ideal 35 year old UFA 2nd line center with 23 points in 37 games will net you a first round pick in today's NHL...
There haven't really been any centers moved in the past couple years at the deadline. But try these moves on for size:

Quote:
-The New York Islanders acquired F Ryan Smyth from the Edmonton Oilers for F Robert Nilsson, F Ryan O'Marra and a 1st round pick in 2007.

-The Nashville Predators acquired D Brendan Witt from the Washington Capitals for F Kris Beech and a 1st round pick in 2006

-The San Jose Sharks acquired Bill Guerin from the St. Louis Blues for F Ville Nieminen, F Jay Barriball, and a 1st round pick in 2007

-The San Jose Sharks acquired D Brian Campbell and a 7th round pick in 2008 from the Buffalo Sabres for F Steve Bernier and a 2008 1st round draft pick.
With the exception of the Ryan Smyth deal, I don't see any of those guys being more valuable (at their respective times) in a trade than Saku Koivu.

Quote:
-The Vancouver Canucks acuired D Keith Carney and D Juha Alen from the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim for Brett Skinner and a 2nd round pick in 2006

-The Carolina Hurricanes acquired F Mark Recchi from the Pittsburgh Penguins for F Niklas Nordgren, F Krystofer Kolanos, and a 2nd round pick in 2007.

-The Edmonton Oilers acquired F Sergei Samsonov from the Boston Bruins for F Marty Reasoner, F Yan Stastny, and a 2nd round pick in 2006.

-The Detroit Red Wings acquired D Brad Stuart from the Los Angeles Kings for a 2008 2nd round draft pick and a 2009 4th round draft pick.

-The Washington Capitals acquired G Cristobal Huet from the Montreal Canadiens for a 2009 2nd round draft pick.

-The Edmonton Oilers acquire Ales Kotalik from the Buffalo Sabres for a 2009 2nd round draft pick.

-The Buffalo Sabres acquire Dominic Moore from the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 2009 2nd round draft pick.

-The Boston Bruins acquire Mark Recchi and a 2010 2nd round draft pick from the Tampa Bay Lightning for Matt Lashoff and Martins Karsums.

-The Calgary Flames acquire Jordan Leopold from the Colorado Avalanche for Lawrence Nycholat, Ryan Wilson, and a 2009 2nd round draft pick.
There aren't any impact players on that list. If Saku Koivu is less valuable than any of the guys listed above, then I'm a Chinese stripper.

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01-04-2010, 08:32 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyp View Post
There haven't really been any centers moved in the past couple years at the deadline. But try these moves on for size:



With the exception of the Ryan Smyth deal, I don't see any of those guys being more valuable (at their respective times) in a trade than Saku Koivu.



There aren't any impact players on that list. If Saku Koivu is less valuable than any of the guys listed above, then I'm a Chinese stripper.

You wont get much more for Koivu. At this stage in his career on a contender he is a 3rd line center. Look I like Koivu I think he is a solid player but you are massively overrating his value.

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01-04-2010, 08:36 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyp View Post
With the exception of the Ryan Smyth deal, I don't see any of those guys being more valuable (at their respective times) in a trade than Saku Koivu.
Campbell was ridiculously overvalued at the time. That was right before the Hawks signed him to that insane contract. So, I'd say he was more valuable than a much older 2nd/3rd line center, at the time. Not saying his valuation was correct - but market value is market value, and puck moving defenseman were and are a hot commodity.

Unless someone's going to be offering Koivu an 8 year deal at $7 million+ per year this summer.

That said - I could see Buffalo throwing in a first to get him. It'd be a late first rounder though - so not sure how much more valuable that pick is compared to an early second round pick, in reality.

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01-04-2010, 08:46 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyp View Post
With the exception of the Ryan Smyth deal, I don't see any of those guys being more valuable (at their respective times) in a trade than Saku Koivu.
Brian Campbell at that time was definitely worth a lot more than Koivu is now. Another point is that the value of draft picks dramatically increased just over the past few years. As some of the trades you mentioned indicate 1st round picks had been tossed around like crazy on deadline deals until like 2007, and the number of first round picks moved significantly decreased each year since then as the importance of having great young players on entry level deals under the cap became more obvious to GMs.

On the moves you mentioned that happened more recently:
I don't think Koivu is worth much more than Huét was at the time. He probably is worth a little more than Kotalik, and certainly a lot more than Dominic Moore, but that trade is looked back upon as one of the more laughable ones of the recent past; it can't really be considered a landmark. More fitting is the fact that Nik Antropov also fetched a 2nd round pick last deadline, who I think had a higher value at the time than Koivu does right now.

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Old
01-04-2010, 08:47 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlr View Post
Campbell was ridiculously overvalued at the time. That was right before the Hawks signed him to that insane contract. So, I'd say he was more valuable than a much older 2nd/3rd line center, at the time. Not saying his valuation was correct - but market value is market value, and puck moving defenseman were and are a hot commodity.

Unless someone's going to be offering Koivu an 8 year deal at $7 million+ per year this summer.

That said - I could see Buffalo throwing in a first to get him. It'd be a late first rounder though - so not sure how much more valuable that pick is compared to an early second round pick, in reality.
Even so, Campbell garnered a 1st AND Bernier (who at the time was a 22 year-old up and coming power forward).

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01-04-2010, 08:51 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by sammyp View Post

With the exception of the Ryan Smyth deal, I don't see any of those guys being more valuable (at their respective times) in a trade than Saku Koivu.
Guerin had 28 goals and a stanley cup in his bag.
Campbell was an all star offensive D man in his prime who had 43 pts in 63 games and had played in the conference championship the prior 2 years
Witt it was the first year after the lockout, and teams hadnt figuered out the cap or the new rules that led to physical big guys not being so important.

Also both Kotalik and Moore were scoring more last year than Koivu is this year. Just saying.

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01-04-2010, 08:54 PM
  #36
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The price depends on how much teams will be interested. If some centers get injured and they need him to get in the playoffs, why shouldn't he fetch a first?

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01-04-2010, 09:00 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madpooh View Post
Guerin had 28 goals and a stanley cup in his bag.
Campbell was an all star offensive D man in his prime who had 43 pts in 63 games and had played in the conference championship the prior 2 years
Witt it was the first year after the lockout, and teams hadnt figuered out the cap or the new rules that led to physical big guys not being so important.

Also both Kotalik and Moore were scoring more last year than Koivu is this year. Just saying.
-Guerin was puting up similar numbers to what Koivu is producing at right now. They are/were both impending FA's. Guerin's salary was higher. The Sharks had to give up TWO other pieces on top of the 1st.

-Kotalik had just 32 points in 56 games prior to last year's deadline. He was also an impending UFA with limited playoff experience.

-Campbell and Witt were both terrible deals. But hey, they still happened right?

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01-05-2010, 08:35 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by !!TML97!! View Post
You wont get much more for Koivu. At this stage in his career on a contender he is a 3rd line center. Look I like Koivu I think he is a solid player but you are massively overrating his value.
Moore was a great con as a 2nd/3rd line center and he was had for a 2nd rounder. Koivu brings more than Moore, so I could see someone asking for a late 1st and perhaps getting it based on need ( or settling for a 2nd and a prospect).

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01-05-2010, 11:52 AM
  #39
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If you're dead set on a first, then yeah Koivu might fetch a single first round pick by itself.

But deadline deals typically involve 2-3 pieces. For a 2nd line player, I get the impression that the return is typically a 2nd round pick (the pick is normally the same as the line of player) and an equivalent level prospect (meaning a former 2nd round prospect who's stalling, or a succeeding former 3rd round pick). That's roughly what I'd expect for Koivu.

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01-05-2010, 01:51 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammyp View Post
-Guerin was puting up similar numbers to what Koivu is producing at right now. They are/were both impending FA's. Guerin's salary was higher. The Sharks had to give up TWO other pieces on top of the 1st.

-Kotalik had just 32 points in 56 games prior to last year's deadline. He was also an impending UFA with limited playoff experience.

-Campbell and Witt were both terrible deals. But hey, they still happened right?
So right there you're basically saying it will take someone to make a bad deal for you to fetch a 1st for Koivu.

I think you're overlooking the fact that many of the 1sts you listed were 2007 which many scouts regarded as a weak draft. If you'd accept a 2011 1st rder from a playoff team, you may just get your 1st. But it won't be a 10 1st.

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01-05-2010, 03:09 PM
  #41
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So right there you're basically saying it will take someone to make a bad deal for you to fetch a 1st for Koivu.

I think you're overlooking the fact that many of the 1sts you listed were 2007 which many scouts regarded as a weak draft. If you'd accept a 2011 1st rder from a playoff team, you may just get your 1st. But it won't be a 10 1st.
I'm still not sure why people are comparing defensemen dealt at the deadline with forwards. They tend to bear different characteristics, typically with the defense landing a higher return.

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01-05-2010, 03:24 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Moore was a great con as a 2nd/3rd line center and he was had for a 2nd rounder. Koivu brings more than Moore, so I could see someone asking for a late 1st and perhaps getting it based on need ( or settling for a 2nd and a prospect).
Sure. It can happen sure. Like you said Moore got a second rounder. I like Koivu I just dont know if he will fetch that but I have seen players who aren't as good or productive as Koivu fetch a first rounder on the market.

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01-05-2010, 04:31 PM
  #43
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I'll laugh if Koivu fetches a 1st (assuming the Ducks trade him).

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01-05-2010, 05:42 PM
  #44
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I'll laugh if Koivu fetches a 1st (assuming the Ducks trade him).
If Shane O'brien can fetch a 1st, anything can happen .

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