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#55: Flyers @ Oilers - February 3, 2010 - 9:30 PM (ET)

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02-04-2010, 09:57 AM
  #701
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Hate to break it to you, but that's normal goal scoring distribution. You don't average 3 a game by potting 3 goals every game. Sometimes you score 3, sometimes you score 4...sometimes you score 2. So, that's about what you'd expect. If you went around the league you'd see similar distribution around the average.

However, in our case if you look at the slump from hell... we scored 2 or fewer goals in 12 of 16 games. That's outlier distribution from the mean. What you would EXPECT to see is what you just outlined...that's why that sample is an outlier.

BTW, this is the same discussion that happens every year with the Phils. It's normal...it's consistently that way in the NHL.

For example, lets take Washington. Easily the best offensive team in the league this year (outscoring second by a full half goal). Their average to this point is 3.82 goals a game. So, you'd expect them to hover around that in some distribution pattern.

Hell, lets take the absolute absurd run they're on right now, beginning Jan 2, goals scored in games:

1, 4, 5, 8, 4, 4, 6, 5, 3, 6, 4, 7, 5, 4, 3, 4

Their December is more normal, however:

6, 8, 3, 0, 4, 3, 6, 2, 4, 5, 4, 3, 2

Now, your response might be that they're scoring 3 or more (good) more often...sure, they're a better offensive team (than everyone). However, their goal totals are not consistently 3.82. When the Flyers are playing their best, we're probably a low 3s average team.



Also...kind of the way it goes.
I know statistics and I know averages, I'm not that big of an idiot. I don't see teams like Washington beat Toronto 6-2 then losing a week later 0-4. I don't see teams like Washington shutting out a fringe playoff team 3-0 then losing to the worst team in the league 0-1 the next game. I don't see teams like Washington beating Pittsburgh 7-4 then losing their next game 1-2.

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02-04-2010, 10:16 AM
  #702
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A goaltender plays the shooter and it is up to the defensive to play the pass. Richards blew the coverage.

But, of course, nobody can blame the almighty Cannon, right?
Well, Mike blames himself, which was good him to take responsibility, although it was Pronger's feeble attempt to check Penner that is the main mistake.


“It’s tough, especially the way it kind of ended,” said Flyer captain Mike Richards. “It was a missed assignment on my part. We had a lot of chances and couldn’t score. It’s disappointing.”

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02-04-2010, 10:27 AM
  #703
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I'm not blaming the loss on Leighton, I'm refuting the argument that it wasn't a save he could have made. The goalies job is to keep the puck out of the net. Yes Richards could have done a better job eliminating Potulny, just like Pronger and Timonen could have done a better job not letting passes through. Fact is Leighton went down early and got caught with his pants down. If Potulny fired a hard shot, hell if he even put it in the right side of the net I would agree with you. But this goal just shows you the difference between good goalies and Michael Leighton. Leighton can stop an initial shot, like most goalies. But hes screwed if he has to move at all, or try to control a rebound.
Yeah, because only Michael Leighton and other 2nd tier goalies are the only ones to let goals in off of soft shots. I've never seen good goalies let in goals like that.

Yes, it's the goalie's job to keep the puck out of the net, but that last I checked this is a team sport where your goalie also relies on his defense to play well in front of him and not allow Ryan Potulny to skate down the middle untouched.

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02-04-2010, 10:41 AM
  #704
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Leighton only let one goal in (whether it was a good goal or a bad one is irrelevant) - this group of forwards and defense couldn't score a single goal last night. A few goal posts, and few missed chances, and a lot of trying to be too cute. Any time your backup can keep the other team to one goal, you should win the game.

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02-04-2010, 10:47 AM
  #705
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Giroux is so afraid to shoot, one of these days he's gonna look to pass in the shoot out

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02-04-2010, 10:47 AM
  #706
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Apparently whenever we get an open goal we allow the goalie to get back in, in the interests of fairness of course.

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02-04-2010, 10:54 AM
  #707
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Well, Mike blames himself, which was good him to take responsibility, although it was Pronger's feeble attempt to check Penner that is the main mistake.


“It’s tough, especially the way it kind of ended,” said Flyer captain Mike Richards. “It was a missed assignment on my part. We had a lot of chances and couldn’t score. It’s disappointing.”
At least he takes responsibility even though it wasn't just his fault. You'll never see Pronger admit it, he always says "we" made mistakes or didn't come through, not "I".

Last night on the TSN broadcast they showed Evander Kane undressing him in the Atlanta game and said it happened twice. But did he accept it as his responsibility? Nope. It's funny how Richards' captaincy comes into question so often this season but he admits when he screws up, unlike the great leader Pronger is supposed to be.

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02-04-2010, 11:04 AM
  #708
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Goalies are taught to trust their defense and play the shot on an odd man rush and that's what Leighton did. He knows it's his D's job to pick up the trailers and cut of passing lanes. He stayed tight to the post and the puck went all the way across the ice 5 feet from the crease with 20 seconds left in the game. That's the fault of Pronger, kimmo (I think it was him) and Richards who dogged it until he saw the pass got through and it was too late.
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02-04-2010, 11:27 AM
  #709
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I know statistics and I know averages, I'm not that big of an idiot. I don't see teams like Washington beat Toronto 6-2 then losing a week later 0-4. I don't see teams like Washington shutting out a fringe playoff team 3-0 then losing to the worst team in the league 0-1 the next game. I don't see teams like Washington beating Pittsburgh 7-4 then losing their next game 1-2.
...they've been a better team than us. In fact, they're the best team in the league. If you want to put together an argument that we're not as good as Washington...I agree. They're 10 pts clear of everyone in the East right now, and have won 11 in a row.

But having scoring distribution around 3 goals when you're a 3 goal average team...that's what you expect, that isn't a sign of "screaming inconsistency".

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02-04-2010, 11:29 AM
  #710
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Goalies are taught to trust their defense and play the shot on an odd man rush and that's what Leighton did. He knows it's his D's job to pick up the trailers and cut of passing lanes. He stayed tight to the post and the puck went all the way across the ice 5 feet from the crease with 20 seconds left in the game. That's the fault of Pronger, kimmo (I think it was him) and Richards who dogged it until he saw the pass got through and it was too late.
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If the shot had been with any velocity, or put to the far side of the net...I'd agree with you. However, Leighton should at least be MOVING to the left when that shot is taken and if it beats him it beats him (not his fault). However, Richards turned that shot into a flubbed burp on the ice to the middle of the net. If Leighton had moved to his left at all he stops it.

As I said above...you expect a NHL goalie to at least make the shooter earn it...Leighton didn't.

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02-04-2010, 11:35 AM
  #711
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Apparently whenever we get an open goal we allow the goalie to get back in, in the interests of fairness of course.
To score on an open goal would just be too easy..

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02-04-2010, 11:37 AM
  #712
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If the shot had been with any velocity, or put to the far side of the net...I'd agree with you. However, Leighton should at least be MOVING to the left when that shot is taken and if it beats him it beats him (not his fault). However, Richards turned that shot into a flubbed burp on the ice to the middle of the net. If Leighton had moved to his left at all he stops it.

As I said above...you expect a NHL goalie to at least make the shooter earn it...Leighton didn't.
And if Pronger blocks a lane or Timonen intercepts a pass or Richards takes 1 more stride we would have at least 1 point from that game and a shutout from leighton but somehow there are 4 people who contributed to a goal and it's on Leighton who stopped every other shot that came his way during the game. I don't care if they were all easy saves or hard saves, he saved them. The fact is, most difficult saves are a result of a goalie recovering from a mistake.

And Leighton did make the shooter earn it, so much so that he had no option but to throw a blind pass through the middle on a PP in hopes that 3 players don't cut it off.
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02-04-2010, 11:39 AM
  #713
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Originally Posted by CannonGoBoom View Post
And if Pronger blocks a lane or Timonen intercepts a pass or Richards takes 1 more stride we would have at least 1 point from that game and a shutout from leighton but somehow there are 4 people who contributed to a goal and it's on Leighton who stopped every other shot that came his way during the game. I don't care if they were all easy saves or hard saves, he saved them. The fact is, most difficult saves are a result of a goalie recovering from a mistake.
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And that's all fine and good, but that goal encapsulated why Leighton is not very good at the NHL level. Hell, that entire game encapsulated why he isn't very good, as he bunted about 9 rebounds into the danger area forcing his teammates to rescue him...that was the only truly dangerous chance the Oilers created the entire game that I can remember...and Leighton was unable to even move towards it.

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And Leighton did make the shooter earn it, so much so that he had no option but to throw a blind pass through the middle on a PP in hopes that 3 players don't cut it off.
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At which point...he ceased to be the shooter.


Last edited by Jester: 02-04-2010 at 11:54 AM.
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02-04-2010, 11:47 AM
  #714
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Originally Posted by CannonGoBoom View Post
And if Pronger blocks a lane or Timonen intercepts a pass or Richards takes 1 more stride we would have at least 1 point from that game and a shutout from leighton but somehow there are 4 people who contributed to a goal and it's on Leighton who stopped every other shot that came his way during the game. I don't care if they were all easy saves or hard saves, he saved them. The fact is, most difficult saves are a result of a goalie recovering from a mistake.

And Leighton did make the shooter earn it, so much so that he had no option but to throw a blind pass through the middle on a PP in hopes that 3 players don't cut it off.
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It was ugly all around. I don't know why the goalie is getting a free pass here.

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02-04-2010, 11:57 AM
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And that's all fine and good, but that goal encapsulated why Leighton is not very good at the NHL level. Hell, that entire game encapsulated why he isn't very good, as he bunted about 9 rebounds into the danger area forcing his teammates to rescue him...that was the only truly dangerous chance the Oilers created the entire game that I can remember...and Leighton was unable to even move towards it.
1 goal encapsulates why Leighton isn't good at the NHL level? Like I posted before you've never seen a good NHL goalie ever give up a goal like that? It also boggles my mind at how you belittle any save that Leighton made during the game. But, I do like in your other post how you somehow to give credit to the almighty Cannon for causing Potulny to flub the shot despite the fact that he completely missed Gretzky, I mean Potulny skating right up the gut to the net.

The guy has done nothing but put the Flyers in a position to win in virtually every game he has played in yet all he gets in return is getting s**t on. I don't give a rat's a** if how he gets it done isn't textbook or pretty. What I care about are results and his results are very good.

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02-04-2010, 12:04 PM
  #716
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Giroux is so afraid to shoot, one of these days he's gonna look to pass in the shoot out
Best cure for this is to have the other 4 players crash the net.

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02-04-2010, 12:06 PM
  #717
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At which point...he ceased to be the shooter.
He committed to Gagner, just as any goalie would on an oddman rush. It's the d's job to cut off the pass and play the recipient of the pass. The d did not do their job on this.

If you want to then criticize Leighton for letting in the goal, go right ahead. You want to blame him for the loss. Go ahead. I choose to blame the anemic offense for not being able to score a measly goal against a horrible Oilers team and a very mediocre backup goaltender in Deslauriers. Leighton did his job by keeping his team in the game by not allowing a goal for over 59 minutes and, in the end gave up one goal. If I told you before the game started that Leighton would give up 1 goal, would you have been satisfied with that? If so, you are placing the blame on the wrong guy.

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02-04-2010, 12:10 PM
  #718
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1 goal encapsulates why Leighton isn't good at the NHL level? Like I posted before you've never seen a good NHL goalie ever give up a goal like that? It also boggles my mind at how you belittle any save that Leighton made during the game. But, I do like in your other post how you somehow to give credit to the almighty Cannon for causing Potulny to flub the shot despite the fact that he completely missed Gretzky, I mean Potulny skating right up the gut to the net.
I'm sorry, where have I absolved Richards? ****, I have a whole post above *****ing about the game Richards played last night.

However, in the previous discussions of Leighton v. Boucher, etc. that was a TERRIBLE goal, and it showed why Leighton has a problem at the NHL level (he doesn't have the agility/athleticism of this level side-to-side).

The shot was flubbed...it was a weak shot, along the ice, and in the friggin middle of the net. Hell, it may have even crossed the goal line on the side of the net Leighton was already on...and yet he couldn't even get close to stopping it.

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The guy has done nothing but put the Flyers in a position to win in virtually every game he has played in yet all he gets in return is getting s**t on. I don't give a rat's a** if how he gets it done isn't textbook or pretty. What I care about are results and his results are very good.
He's had a nice little run here...but Leighton's results at the NHL level...have not been very good. I know you like him, but the dude has bounced around the waiver wire for a reason, and it hasn't been because the results have been very good.

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02-04-2010, 12:17 PM
  #719
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i hope to hell we do not keep leighton. i think he only plays as well as he does because he knows that any game could potentially be his last. im afraid that if he gets job security, his playing will tank.

id really rather start seeing bouch in net. its not his fault he had to play while the team around him was awful, and then get hurt.

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02-04-2010, 12:20 PM
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He's had a nice little run here...but Leighton's results at the NHL level...have not been very good. I know you like him, but the dude has bounced around the waiver wire for a reason, and it hasn't been because the results have been very good.
Actually I really don't like him all that much. I just appreciate the fact that he's put this team in a position to win games and I think he deserves a little appreciation for what he's done here.

That said, you could have said the same thing about Craig Anderson a few years back. In fact I believe he went through waivers 3 times in one season and people were saying the same thing as you have said about Leighton Now he's a legitimate NHL starter. The same can be said for Tim Thomas. I'm not saying that this will happen with Leighton, but anything is possible.

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02-04-2010, 12:20 PM
  #721
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i hope to hell we do not keep leighton. i think he only plays as well as he does because he knows that any game could potentially be his last. im afraid that if he gets job security, his playing will tank.

id really rather start seeing bouch in net. its not his fault he had to play while the team around him was awful, and then get hurt.
Eh, I think he's had success because this team has been exceptional at clearing the puck in front of him (last night there were a bunch of examples of him leaving the puck in a terrible spot and someone happening to be there for him). However, he really just tries to be big and let the puck hit him...and where it goes, is where it goes. I mean, it really doesn't seem like he efforts to direct the puck at all.

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02-04-2010, 12:23 PM
  #722
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Actually I really don't like him all that much. I just appreciate the fact that he's put this team in a position to win games and I think he deserves a little appreciation for what he's done here.

That said, you could have said the same thing about Craig Anderson a few years back. In fact I believe he went through waivers 3 times in one season and people were saying the same thing as you have said about Leighton Now he's a legitimate NHL starter. The same can be said for Tim Thomas. I'm not saying that this will happen with Leighton, but anything is possible.
Bryzgalov is a pretty good example also.

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02-04-2010, 12:24 PM
  #723
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Eh, I think he's had success because this team has been exceptional at clearing the puck in front of him (last night there were a bunch of examples of him leaving the puck in a terrible spot and someone happening to be there for him). However, he really just tries to be big and let the puck hit him...and where it goes, is where it goes. I mean, it really doesn't seem like he efforts to direct the puck at all.
you're right, there. and i really dont like watching it. its only a matter of time before they bounce somewhere bad.

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02-04-2010, 12:26 PM
  #724
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Actually I really don't like him all that much. I just appreciate the fact that he's put this team in a position to win games and I think he deserves a little appreciation for what he's done here.
I appreciate that as well, but last night a BAD goal cost us a point in the standings. Being a goalie is high pressure and has a harsh success to failure threshold, similar to being a pitcher, QB, etc. All the good work he did for 59.5 minutes last night was destroyed with one awful goal last night.

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That said, you could have said the same thing about Craig Anderson a few years back. In fact I believe he went through waivers 3 times in one season and people were saying the same thing as you have said about Leighton Now he's a legitimate NHL starter. The same can be said for Tim Thomas. I'm not saying that this will happen with Leighton, but anything is possible.
Leighton is 28 now and still doesn't have his **** together. Craig Anderson's last "bad" season in the NHL was when he was 24. Since then, he's put up .931 (5 games), .935 (17 games), .924 (31 games), and .924 (47 games). Not really comparable.

Tim Thomas is a whole other bag of marbles, as he's a completely unorthodox mess that relies so much on athleticism it's difficult to discuss him with most other goalies (though, I see a lot of that in Emery as well).

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02-04-2010, 12:26 PM
  #725
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Eh, I think he's had success because this team has been exceptional at clearing the puck in front of him (last night there were a bunch of examples of him leaving the puck in a terrible spot and someone happening to be there for him). However, he really just tries to be big and let the puck hit him...and where it goes, is where it goes. I mean, it really doesn't seem like he efforts to direct the puck at all.
Of course. None of the success he has had has been a result of his play at all. Let's just discredit his play completely.

If it was a couple of games I might agree with you. To put up the numbers he has put up over 10 games is more than just the team in front of him.

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