HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Western Conference > Pacific Division > Edmonton Oilers
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Notices

A case for not waiting until the trade deadline...

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
02-11-2010, 11:39 AM
  #1
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,854
vCash: 500
A case for not waiting until the trade deadline...

We all know that hockey GM's are like us when we were in college, wait till the last moment and then cram and stay up all night and try to get the exam studied for or the assignment handed in.

Although a lot of teams don't heat things up until near the deadline a team like the Oilers should have been pushing hard for deals much earlier for a couple of reasons.

1) Being just about the 1st team out of contention should give us a captive audience as far as pitching players.

2) Injuries. There was the news that Souray gave a list of teams he would be willing to go to. There were rumors that we were shopping him. He breaks his hand and we are now SOL.

3) Other trades change the trade dynamic. While we wait thinking we have resources other teams want a big deal like the Phaneuf or Kovy deal gets made changing the landscape and potentially taking suitors off the market.

4) Time pressure as the deadline approaches. When you are team that really wants to make multiple moves you just cannot do justice to all possible deals if you wait until the last moment.

Now you need two to tango but the Oilers as soon as it became apparent this team was done should have been pressing hard to make a deal or two. It only gets harder for a team out of contention and spiralling downwards as other teams decide to become sellers.

There is a prevailing thought that as you near the deadline teams become more desperate to add that piece of the puzzle and you will get better value when in fact it might be the exact opposite because teams wanting that piece are now looking at 5 or 6 teams that are sellers rather than 1 or 2.

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 11:44 AM
  #2
joestevens29
Registered User
 
joestevens29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 25,287
vCash: 0
I agree that we shouldn't be waiting, but from what I've read some of the teams that could be looking to acquire players really don't want to pay a player to sit on his butt for two weeks. It sounds stupid, but for teams like Dallas, Florida, Long Island this seems to be what is happening.

joestevens29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 11:45 AM
  #3
Live Breathe Hockey
 
Live Breathe Hockey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,339
vCash: 500
I think we'll see a few trades after the freeze. Think most teams are going to make teams eat the extra 2 weeks in salary cap hit before they take on the plugs. If we've noticed anything, its been high priced guys going for high priced guys for comparable cap hits.

The only trade that was done that didn't have a similar cap hit was the Kovalchuk trade. My reasoning why it happened when it did, and possibly for a bit less than what was expected is the fact that ATL doesn't have to pay Kovi his salary for playing in the Olympics (which is going to be a savings of astronomical proportions) and NJD do. Also, if Kovi gets hurt in the Olympics, its now NJD's issue, not ATL with 3 days to go before the deadline.

I don't think this has anything to do with T-Lo not wanting to make a deal happen, more so that if we are only going to be taking picks/prospects in return for our higher priced plugs, we're going to have to eat their salary over the 2 week period to allow for some more flex room for the teams in contention.

No one should be worried until March 3rd if nothing has been done still.

Live Breathe Hockey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 11:53 AM
  #4
Dazed and Confused
Registered User
 
Dazed and Confused's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,348
vCash: 500
Don't trade the suck until you have to, can't risk winning and losing 30th. Imagine what would happen if Hocoff wasn't a - player or Moreau didn't take a penalty every game: we actually might win

Dazed and Confused is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 12:07 PM
  #5
SK13
Mo'Linguish
 
SK13's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Edmonton
Country: Canada
Posts: 24,003
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beerfish View Post
We all know that hockey GM's are like us when we were in college, wait till the last moment and then cram and stay up all night and try to get the exam studied for or the assignment handed in.
No they aren't. They're more like meticulous agents with little job security unwilling to compromise and rush a deal through for the sake of rushing a deal through.

Quote:
Although a lot of teams don't heat things up until near the deadline a team like the Oilers should have been pushing hard for deals much earlier for a couple of reasons.

1) Being just about the 1st team out of contention should give us a captive audience as far as pitching players.
I fail to see how this works.

Being the first team out of contention means having a lot of assets struggling at their worst points. If anything, this makes our assets more unattractive. That said, teams should be scouting us.

Quote:
2) Injuries. There was the news that Souray gave a list of teams he would be willing to go to. There were rumors that we were shopping him. He breaks his hand and we are now SOL.
This is just dumb.

Should we just trade Visnovsky away for nothing so we don't have to worry about him getting hurt tonight? Maybe we should scratch him: That'll help trade value.

Quote:
3) Other trades change the trade dynamic. While we wait thinking we have resources other teams want a big deal like the Phaneuf or Kovy deal gets made changing the landscape and potentially taking suitors off the market.
Those "potential suitors" were all looking for the big ticket. The big ticket that we don't have on the market. And when that big ticket goes, they've got 6+ teams who were competing with them for that big ticket who are lowering their standards and more desperate to fill a roster need.

When Whitney and Ponikarovsky go, O'Sullivan or Cogliano anyone?

Quote:
4) Time pressure as the deadline approaches. When you are team that really wants to make multiple moves you just cannot do justice to all possible deals if you wait until the last moment.
The pressure's equally on the other side.

Moreso in fact, given that only the fans are on kilter here. Tambellini has no legitimate reason to make these things happen now, it might be far easier to move some assets with contracts when there's some clarity on next years situation this summer. Hell, I expect that's when Souray will get moved.

Quote:
Now you need two to tango but the Oilers as soon as it became apparent this team was done should have been pressing hard to make a deal or two. It only gets harder for a team out of contention and spiralling downwards as other teams decide to become sellers.

There is a prevailing thought that as you near the deadline teams become more desperate to add that piece of the puzzle and you will get better value when in fact it might be the exact opposite because teams wanting that piece are now looking at 5 or 6 teams that are sellers rather than 1 or 2.
Listen: Every teams goal is to make the playoffs. Not one team within 5 points is going to start selling (well, that's not true: Anaheim did it last year, and it was strange). They'll want to add players and some will just stand pat.

Right now, ALL the trade talk is on Carolina, Edmonton, St Louis and Toronto. For a reason.

SK13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 12:21 PM
  #6
Master Lok
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 6,669
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dazed and Confused View Post
Don't trade the suck until you have to, can't risk winning and losing 30th. Imagine what would happen if Hocoff wasn't a - player or Moreau didn't take a penalty every game: we actually might win
Because players like Nilsson, Cogliano, Grebeshkov, Jacques, Brule, Pouliot, and now Penner have all proven to be so consistent and will lead the Oilers to winning ways once the vets are gone? really?

Master Lok is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 02:00 PM
  #7
Beerfish
Registered User
 
Beerfish's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 10,854
vCash: 500
No they aren't. They're more like meticulous agents with little job security unwilling to compromise and rush a deal through for the sake of rushing a deal through.

If the trade deadline was the last day of the year or a month and a half earlier would that make a difference? They act late because there is a deadline. The thought that you have to wait till the last day and hour 23 shows me a team that can't do it's homework.


I fail to see how this works.

Being the first team out of contention means having a lot of assets struggling at their worst points. If anything, this makes our assets more unattractive. That said, teams should be scouting us.

Yes teams should be scouting us and only having meaningful convos with us. A team that wants a pp defenceman, we talk Souray and Visnosky. Other teams players are not on the market because those teams haven't given up the season yet. Now, closer to the deadline we suddenly have 6 or 7 teams trying to move players. The bigger the supply the more the price goes down.



This is just dumb.

Should we just trade Visnovsky away for nothing so we don't have to worry about him getting hurt tonight? Maybe we should scratch him: That'll help trade value.

A totally idiotic response on your part. My statement was very clear. We had an asset and teams that were dickering for that asset by waiting until closer to the deadline that asset is now untradeable. No one said anything about sitting people out or giving them away. The point is that if you want to move an asset you are risking every game that the guy gets hurt.

Those "potential suitors" were all looking for the big ticket. The big ticket that we don't have on the market. And when that big ticket goes, they've got 6+ teams who were competing with them for that big ticket who are lowering their standards and more desperate to fill a roster need.

When Whitney and Ponikarovsky go, O'Sullivan or Cogliano anyone?

There is a finite number of teams wanting to trade for players just as there is a finite number of teams offering resources. There was rumours of NJ wanting a pp defenceman. They instead made the kovy move thus eliminating them from being a buyer more or less. Atlanta traded their best player thus probably adding them to the seller group. Both bad things for us. When Whitney and Ponik go then there are two more teams who DO NOT need a player.

The pressure's equally on the other side.

Moreso in fact, given that only the fans are on kilter here. Tambellini has no legitimate reason to make these things happen now, it might be far easier to move some assets with contracts when there's some clarity on next years situation this summer. Hell, I expect that's when Souray will get moved.

This we hear a lot the old put it off bit. Meanwhile the resource if anything devalues more in some cases. Also in the meantime we do not get the cap relief, have a tougher time with signing all our FA's and have a much less clear image of what we want to do at the draft.

Listen: Every teams goal is to make the playoffs. Not one team within 5 points is going to start selling (well, that's not true: Anaheim did it last year, and it was strange). They'll want to add players and some will just stand pat.

Right now, ALL the trade talk is on Carolina, Edmonton, St Louis and Toronto. For a reason.

Teams on the playoff bubble will not necessarily want to add players for fear of missing anyway and giving up prospects/picks which is what the oilers want. Part two correct.....for now but the list is growing daily and waiting till the deadline will add 2,3,4 more sellers, thus saturating the market.

[/QUOTE]

Beerfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 03:04 PM
  #8
Oil Gauge
Registered User
 
Oil Gauge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 4,500
vCash: 500
Even though the Oilers knew they were done many months ago, other teams didn't and still don't know where they will be and what they will need.

There really have been what 2 rental player trades, Kovi and Jokinen. We definitely don't have the players available to facilitate what either team needed.

Oil Gauge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 03:22 PM
  #9
nafrelio
Registered User
 
nafrelio's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: brite feuchure
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,575
vCash: 500
If we wait until the draft, GMs may not give up as much because they can just wait to see if they can get a comparable player without giving any assets. I say wait it out until March trade deadline and take the best deals.

nafrelio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
02-11-2010, 11:22 PM
  #10
nexttothemoon
Eight Straight
 
nexttothemoon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Northern Alberta
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,943
vCash: 50
Contending teams want players that can have a potential playoff impact. We have a only a few of those like Penner, Souray (if he's healthy )and Visnovsky.

We probably don't have Penner on the trading block (although I personally would). Souray was being shopped and got hurt so who wants to pay him while he mends(again). Visnovsky is the only body on this team that many teams would likely offer anything decent for. His value goes up as teams figure out whether they are contenders or pretenders for a playoff run. If management isn't braindead they'll be listening to offers of prospects/draft picks for Visnovsky anytime from a few weeks ago all through this summer before the draft.

All our other jetsam/floatsam type players like Horcoff/POS/Nilsson/Pisani/Moreau/Staios/Gilbert are basically fillers for other teams and we'll likely get back similar players with likely large contacts or late round draft picks. We aren't going to steal anything great from other clubs with those players.

We aren't going to trade away our promising youth/prospects/draft picks as we're trying to accumulate those and what would be the point as we need them for the rebuild.

I personally don't think it matters if we make deals now or this summer. Whenever a decent deal presents itself is when the deal should be made. If I were Oilers management I'd have a list of all players available (and most of the experienced players on the team would be on that list) faxed out to every GM in the league. If any offers came in with prospects or decent moderately high draft picks included I'd do the deal. Management now has the luxury of no rush to deal anyone because they are so far out of it and there's no rush to compete soon... we all know this is a rebuild and will take time.

nexttothemoon is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:21 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2014 All Rights Reserved.