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Why I think the season will be saved

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01-22-2005, 10:52 AM
  #1
Egil
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Why I think the season will be saved

Simply put, the divergent media responses by both sides after these talks. It seems clear that the NHL told the players that they will be submitting another proposal to them early next week (and Daly has said this in the Media).

Now, in reponse to this, the players, wanting to appear strong to the owners (to get maximum movement from the owners), have put up 1 last great "were strong" front to the fans and to the NHL. BUT, based on Daly's comments to the media, I think the NHL proposal WILL actually fly with the PA, but the PA can't let that on, otherwise it encourages the NHL to not concede as much. One side can't have found the meetings useful, and the other side found it horrible beyond belief, yet that is what each side is publicly saying.

Now, I liken this situation to two people playing chicken. Both sides are scared ****less that they are going to kill themselves, but they don't want to blink first, as that results in a worse deal for them. Also, neither side has made a big stink about a vote to agree to cancel the season. The PA hasn't taken a vote (and if they did would probably lose), nor has the Board of Governors (which again, they might lose). The only thing to infer from this is that NEITHER side actually has the support to cancel the season (or if they do, it is by a nail thin margin). They can go on and on about how they are ready to cancel the season, but the lack of a clear mandate from EITHER side to cancel the season is very telling, IMHO.

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01-22-2005, 11:16 AM
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I like your thought process there Egil. Hope your right!

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01-22-2005, 02:48 PM
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I also think the season will be saved!! There is to much to be lost, on either side. The Nhl would lose to much of their fan base, corporate sponsers,revenues,teams folding, and I think that the teams would never recover.
The players need to understand, that if the don't come to a conclusion on some of the things troubling the NHL, they will not only lose their jobs they will also lose the league that they started playing hockey for in the first place. This is why I think that the season will go on, because reality must set in at some point soon.

 
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01-22-2005, 02:51 PM
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BLONG7
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Great to see some optomists...we can only hope guys, but man the drivel we keep hearing is wearing most of us down...

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01-22-2005, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by BLONG7
Great to see some optomists...we can only hope guys, but man the drivel we keep hearing is wearing most of us down...
I'am very optimistic that something will get done. There is a lot more going on behind closed doors. I bet both the NHL&NHLPA are worried with little time left to cut a deal!! The players are trying to make everyone think that they will never accept a cap, but it is just a presser point that they are using. They know what has to happen,if they ever what to call themselves NHL hockey players again!!
All the doom and gloom in the media , points to the end of the season; this same thing happened in 94'. The media was also all doom and gloom, right untill the signing of the cba. This time around ,the message is a lot more clearer. The players have no choice but to accept a cap; it's that simple.
In the end, I believe the NHL&NHLPA will get a deal done!!

 
Old
01-22-2005, 03:46 PM
  #6
Tom_Benjamin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Egil
Now, in reponse to this, the players, wanting to appear strong to the owners (to get maximum movement from the owners), have put up 1 last great "were strong" front to the fans and to the NHL.
It's nice to see some optimism, but I don't think you don't know Trevor Linden very well. He's done with it.

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BUT, based on Daly's comments to the media, I think the NHL proposal WILL actually fly with the PA, but the PA can't let that on, otherwise it encourages the NHL to not concede as much.
Based on Daly's comments. Ha-ha.

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One side can't have found the meetings useful, and the other side found it horrible beyond belief, yet that is what each side is publicly saying.
Yes, they can. Linden gave the NHL the courtesy of listening to their version of the new NHL and how great Bill Daly thinks it will be. Linden thinks it will be stupid and pointed out several stupidities.

The NHL offer will now pretend to take those views into consideration with their offer which will be immediately rejected. (The only good thing is we will hear more details of the Gary Bettman vision. We will have lots of fun trying to reconcile that with the Fantasy Island view of life in a capped league that has been expressed by so many on this board.)

From Linden's perspective the meetings went like this:

NHL: The old system didn't work.

NHLPA: The new system won't work. How do teams get under the cap? What does this system do to the small market teams it is supposed to help? Without revenue sharing these teams are worse off!

NHL: That's none of your business. Auto workers don't get to design cars.

NHLPA: Goodbye and good riddance.

Quote:
Also, neither side has made a big stink about a vote to agree to cancel the season. The PA hasn't taken a vote (and if they did would probably lose), nor has the Board of Governors (which again, they might lose).
The players can't vote to cancel the season. They can't vote on anything since there is no offer to vote for or against. The NHL will probably call for a vote on the offer they make next week. The players will shoot the NHL the bird. Even if they did vote, the players would say no.

Tom

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01-22-2005, 08:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Benjamin
It's nice to see some optimism, but I don't think you don't know Trevor Linden very well. He's done with it.
What don't I know about Trevor Linden? You think he wouldn't tell a little white lie to the media to get an advantage in the labour talks? You need to appear strong until the last minute, and that is what the PA is doing.


Quote:
Based on Daly's comments. Ha-ha.
Based on Daly's comments (and he made more today), I think that the NHL is clearly wanting to make a deal. We will see what happens when this proposal is made, but I do think the NHL wants to make a deal. They want some sort of "cost certainty", but I think they are willing to wiggle more than they were in December.

Quote:
Yes, they can. Linden gave the NHL the courtesy of listening to their version of the new NHL and how great Bill Daly thinks it will be. Linden thinks it will be stupid and pointed out several stupidities.

The NHL offer will now pretend to take those views into consideration with their offer which will be immediately rejected. (The only good thing is we will hear more details of the Gary Bettman vision. We will have lots of fun trying to reconcile that with the Fantasy Island view of life in a capped league that has been expressed by so many on this board.)

From Linden's perspective the meetings went like this:

NHL: The old system didn't work.

NHLPA: The new system won't work. How do teams get under the cap? What does this system do to the small market teams it is supposed to help? Without revenue sharing these teams are worse off!

NHL: That's none of your business. Auto workers don't get to design cars.

NHLPA: Goodbye and good riddance.
I think this is due to your own personal feelings on this current CBA, so will ignore it. Suffice it to say, a hybrid Luxury Tax/Salary Cap system can avoid this problem, by generating extra revenue to share, while providing the owners with some form of cost certainty. Throw in an escrow system, and your all set, generating enough revenue so that everyone can reach the floor, while capping the spending of the large market teams.

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The players can't vote to cancel the season. They can't vote on anything since there is no offer to vote for or against. The NHL will probably call for a vote on the offer they make next week. The players will shoot the NHL the bird. Even if they did vote, the players would say no.

Tom
Someone, somewhere is going to need to vote to cancel the season IMHO. Either the players are going to vote on a NHL proposal, with rejection giving a mandate to cancel the season, or the owners will do the reverse (or simply vote to cancel the season). While Bob and Gary both have the theoretical power to cancel the season unilaterally, I don't think they can use that power in practice.

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01-22-2005, 09:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Egil
What don't I know about Trevor Linden? You think he wouldn't tell a little white lie to the media to get an advantage in the labour talks? You need to appear strong until the last minute, and that is what the PA is doing.
He's not that good of an actor. He's done with it. He's not making any more phone calls and he's not going to try to initiate anything.

Quote:
Someone, somewhere is going to need to vote to cancel the season IMHO. Either the players are going to vote on a NHL proposal, with rejection giving a mandate to cancel the season, or the owners will do the reverse (or simply vote to cancel the season). While Bob and Gary both have the theoretical power to cancel the season unilaterally, I don't think they can use that power in practice.
Goodenow does not have the power. All the players can do is reject the owner offer. It will not go to a vote. The owners will make a big to-do about putting it to a vote and pretend the players would accept it if it was, but the executive committee will reject it. They already have the mandate to do it. Linden speaks for the players. If the owner's proposal ties revenues to salaries it will be rejected.

The owners could announce the season is done, but they probably won't.

Tom

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01-22-2005, 09:38 PM
  #9
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I do think the owners may do a deal at the end here.

They are extracting every single ounce of compromise out of the NHLPA and will do so until the actual 11th hour.

I'm still optimistic.

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01-22-2005, 10:26 PM
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im still optimistic because in my mind, they are getting along better than they did last time. they went through all of this crap in almost the same order. they have to go a little further just to show both sides mean it. im not saying there's going to be a season, but it wouldnt surprise me if i came home one day next week to find its all been worked out.

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01-22-2005, 10:35 PM
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I think we may see an NHL this season as well, for the following reasons:

1) We all know the best deal is the deal that is being offered this week by the owners. It's not going to get any better, and the players know that. Whether or not they like it is a different story, but it won't get any better.

2) Too many aging veterans are done for good if this season doesn't happen...I don't think Messier, Francis, Nieuwendyk, Roberts, Hull, Yzerman, Chelios, or any of those types of guys should go out as part of a lockout, nor do they want to.

3) The already crippled NHL (financially) would not recover from the loss of interest in American markets. We all know that in most of the Canadian cities the fans will remian loyal and true, however many American markets risk losing fans that have just recently sparked interest (Carolina/Columbus/Nashville) and would likely never be able to reach even the point they are at now again. The NHL needs the United States to stay afloat. Because of that, I think the owners may feel pressure to get a deal done as well.

4) Recent rumours of the big teams coming together in New York (feel free to delete this portion if you wish, I don't recall where I heard it), supposedly a few of the big boys are on hand in New York, and are likely telling Gary to get with the deal making.

5) Because...I like hockey...PLEASE COME BACK

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01-22-2005, 10:37 PM
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I've said this before and i'll say it again, this is only going on for so long because of the lack of a deadline. If we had had a deadline of the 18th, they'd be in training camp already. Last time this ended ON the deadline. This time everyone has to guess at that date. The biggest concessions are only made at the very end, it's the nature of the beast. WE WILL HAVE HOCKEY!

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01-22-2005, 11:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Benjamin
From Linden's perspective the meetings went like this:

NHL: The old system didn't work.

NHLPA: The new system won't work. How do teams get under the cap? What does this system do to the small market teams it is supposed to help? Without revenue sharing these teams are worse off!

NHL: That's none of your business. Auto workers don't get to design cars.

NHLPA: Goodbye and good riddance.
And what's wrong with that conversation? The NHL side there is absolutely dead on, 100% accurate. The old system *doesn't* work. The players *do* have absolutely no business trying to dictate how the owners run *their* business.

I'm sure if John McCaw goes down into the dressing room and starts telling Trevor how to hold his stick, how to skate and shoot the puck, Trevor will implement all his advice immediately,

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01-22-2005, 11:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom_Benjamin
He's not that good of an actor. He's done with it. He's not making any more phone calls and he's not going to try to initiate anything.



Goodenow does not have the power. All the players can do is reject the owner offer. It will not go to a vote. The owners will make a big to-do about putting it to a vote and pretend the players would accept it if it was, but the executive committee will reject it. They already have the mandate to do it. Linden speaks for the players. If the owner's proposal ties revenues to salaries it will be rejected.

The owners could announce the season is done, but they probably won't.

Tom
so honestly, are you a close personal friend of Trevor Linden?
i mean you must be if you know so much about how his mind works
i will even believe you if you say you are

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01-23-2005, 12:18 AM
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During the 1994-95 lockout does someone remember what was the drop dead date for a deal to save the season?

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01-23-2005, 12:33 AM
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Going off memory... the deadline set for negotiating during the 94-95 lockout was February 1, 1995.

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01-23-2005, 12:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust
Going off memory... the deadline set for negotiating during the 94-95 lockout was February 1, 1995.
Actually it was in the middle of January. Only reason I remember was I kept praying for hockey for my birthday and my prayers were answered.

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01-23-2005, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanlady
Actually it was in the middle of January. Only reason I remember was I kept praying for hockey for my birthday and my prayers were answered.
now we know what the problem is. you didnt pray hard enough this time...so i place full blame upon you

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01-23-2005, 04:26 PM
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the deadline was Jan 11th, the same day that Bob and Gary emerged from their marathon meeting with those wonderful hats on!!!

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01-23-2005, 05:41 PM
  #20
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It would be nice if the half of the owners who could work out a deal using the players framework managed to get their turn to finish the deal, now that the hardliners have completely framed the hard line position and demoralized the players. But that would be too easy.

I think the owners had to have accepted they would lose the season. This allows them to make this hard line proposal without the fear of their deadline. So this coming offer, can be very hardline and consciously designed to split the union ranks, one players cant and shouldnt have to accept. THe players will be forced to reject and it will look like they are the bad guys. Daly would now like to go out as we enter the coming 8 month void, as the good reasonable guy who made the final offer. Now that all their bashing trashing and hardlining has been done, he will calmly, reasonably go out as the good guy who tried.

The other advantage of this goon strategy to demand respect that the players are very familiar with, and then close the league down for the year, it makes the other leagues threats with their cba's that much more credible. "Look we will do it. We will shut down for 2 year". The NHL owners of NBA teams will have a much easier time.

I hope im wrong and Egil is right though, that the owners just had to play out the hardline role to full effect, before compromising when the players will accept anything other than the worst deal they have been threatened with. Maybe they will surprise me. Maybe the moderate owners really will take control and care about the game.

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01-23-2005, 06:13 PM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thinkwild
Maybe the moderate owners really will take control and care about the game.

Sadly, the only people who care about the game are the ones who are suffering.... the fans.

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01-23-2005, 08:07 PM
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Id love to get hockey, but no.Season wont be saved at all.In fact i really think it can go as far as a 2 year lockout.

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01-23-2005, 11:33 PM
  #23
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My feeling is a 5 year lockout is on the way.

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01-24-2005, 12:22 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHfan4ever
Id love to get hockey, but no.Season wont be saved at all.In fact i really think it can go as far as a 2 year lockout.
I'm not sure it will go two years, but I'm pretty certain that this season is lost and probably the first two or three months of next year's season as well. The only way I can see the players accepting some sort of cap is if the NHL owners accept some type of significant revenue sharing. And until the owners get serious about revenue sharing along the lines of the NFL,the players have every reason to fear a cap.

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