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2010 Philadelphia PHILLIES - Regular Season Part 1

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Old
02-17-2010, 10:42 PM
  #26
PhilaFlyers
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Another ring, lets go.

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02-17-2010, 11:37 PM
  #27
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I predict that...

A Phillie's starter will win the cy young.

H...all... er... app

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02-17-2010, 11:46 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
I predict that...

A Phillie's starter will win the cy young.

H...all... er... app
So you saying it will start with an H?

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02-17-2010, 11:46 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
I predict that...

A Phillie's starter will win the cy young.

H...all... er... app
Blanton?

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Old
02-18-2010, 09:05 AM
  #30
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So you saying it will start with an H?
That's a good bet since more then half the rotation starts with H, haha.

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Old
02-18-2010, 10:11 AM
  #31
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I'll make an even more crazy leap. It will start with "Ha".
Posted via Mobile Device

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02-18-2010, 10:13 AM
  #32
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I'll make an even more crazy leap. It will start with "Ha".
Posted via Mobile Device
You are a risk-taker. That really narrows it down,

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Old
02-18-2010, 12:57 PM
  #33
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I'll make an even more crazy leap. It will start with "Ha".
Posted via Mobile Device
Followed by a consonant of some sort.

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02-18-2010, 01:10 PM
  #34
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02-19-2010, 09:14 AM
  #35
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I think I was having an argument with somebody last year about Hamels and the Verducci effect and how I didn't put a lot of stock in it.

Interesting....

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...cci_effect.php

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Old
02-19-2010, 10:47 AM
  #36
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I think I was having an argument with somebody last year about Hamels and the Verducci effect and how I didn't put a lot of stock in it.

Interesting....

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...cci_effect.php
I have all kinds of problems with the analysis taking place there...the most obvious question being, who is laying the gypsy curse on the non-Verducci group in their 2nd season? A 14% increase in DL trips, and an average of 70 days spent there once they arrive?

I would like to know about the minor league seasons that preceded these seasons, as those are important as well (and I know Verducci has included minor league seasons in the past).

The other issue is that Verducci effect is a risk factor, not a predictor of performance.

Quote:
More than a decade ago, with the help of then-Oakland pitching coach Rick Peterson, I began tracking one element of overuse which seemed entirely avoidable: working young pitchers too much too soon. Pitchers not yet fully conditioned and physically matured were at risk if clubs asked them to pitch far more innings than they did the previous season -- like asking a 10K runner to crank out a marathon. The task wasn't impossible, but the after-effects were debilitating. I defined an at-risk pitcher as any 25-and-under pitcher who increased his innings log by more than 30 in a year in which he pitched in the big leagues. Each year the breakdown rate of such red-flagged pitchers -- either by injury or drop in performance -- was staggering.
...

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I try to stress that the effect is not a predictor -- it's just a guideline of risk. In the previous four years, I have identified 34 at-risk pitchers. Only four of them made it through that year without injury and with a lower ERA: Jimenez and three studs who did it last year, Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw and Jair Jurrjens. (Jurrjens may not have escaped the effect after all. He reported to camp this week with a sore shoulder and will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the problem.) Jon Lester, with only a slightly higher ERA in a fine 2009 season, merits mention, too. The at-risk pitchers last year who confirmed the effect included Pelfrey, Cole Hamels, Chad Billingsley, John Danks and Dana Eveland.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ect/index.html

While the use of ERA here is flawed (you cannot consistently lower your ERA), an almost 10% tick upward in injuries stands out. Of course, the non-Verducci group had a 14% increase in their 2nd year...so, who knows? However, any analysis that finds that high an attrition rate and doesn't pause to figure out what is going on...problematic.

Cole Hamels had a bum elbow in spring training last year, and then had command problems all of last season.

EDIT: 140 pitchers in 8 years is also 17.5 pitchers a season... I haven't paid that much attention to Verducci's lists, but has been purposefully non-exhaustive?


Last edited by Jester: 02-19-2010 at 10:57 AM.
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Old
02-19-2010, 10:50 AM
  #37
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Baseball is pretty boring to me, as most of you know, but I'm borderline excited to see Halladay pitch here.

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02-19-2010, 10:58 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by JSTAFF View Post
Baseball is pretty boring to me, as most of you know, but I'm borderline excited to see Halladay pitch here.
It's going to be a fun baseball season.

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Old
02-19-2010, 11:04 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
I have all kinds of problems with the analysis taking place there...the most obvious question being, who is laying the gypsy curse on the non-Verducci group in their 2nd season? A 14% increase in DL trips, and an average of 70 days spent there once they arrive?

I would like to know about the minor league seasons that preceded these seasons, as those are important as well (and I know Verducci has included minor league seasons in the past).

The other issue is that Verducci effect is a risk factor, not a predictor of performance.
Yeah, but Hamels still had 32 starts and 193 innings last year.

Quote:
While the use of ERA here is flawed (you cannot consistently lower your ERA), an almost 10% tick upward in injuries stands out. Of course, the non-Verducci group had a 14% increase in their 2nd year...so, who knows? However, any analysis that finds that high an attrition rate and doesn't pause to figure out what is going on...problematic.
Sure he doesn't go deep, but that basic point about the non-Verducci pitchers seems to degrade the Verducci theory IMO.

Quote:
Cole Hamels had a bum elbow in spring training last year, and then had command problems all of last season.

EDIT: 140 pitchers in 8 years is also 17.5 pitchers a season... I haven't paid that much attention to Verducci's lists, but has been purposefully non-exhaustive?
I personally think that Hamels A) probably did take longer to recover from a heavy workload and B) maybe didn't condition himself as thoroughly in the offseason as he had in years past.

I'm not really too upset about this, as far as I'm concerned, those guys on the 2008 team earned a hell of a lot of slack.

I agree with one of the commenters on that article I found, I think the Verducci theory is an interesting idea that for some reason has become accepted as gospel truth despite a paucity of evidence really supporting it.

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Old
02-19-2010, 11:04 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JSTAFF View Post
Baseball is pretty boring to me, as most of you know, but I'm borderline excited to see Halladay pitch here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
It's going to be a fun baseball season.
I am very excited for this season. I hope Hamels gets his **** together.

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Old
02-19-2010, 11:17 AM
  #41
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Yeah, but Hamels still had 32 starts and 193 innings last year.
...of well below the level he pitched at the year before. +1.33 ERA (career high), +.59 BABIP (career high), +.204 WHIP (career high), +.098 OPS (career high)...

I also dislike how statisticians dismiss BABIP numbers as pure "luck" because there's a lot more going on there. That is one of the softest statistics out there. BABIP on a fastball down the middle is going to be higher than a fastball on the hands.

Quote:
Sure he doesn't go deep, but that basic point about the non-Verducci pitchers seems to degrade the Verducci theory IMO.
That's just it...I think the non-Verducci players stats look completely screwed up. The comparative years (2 and 3) are goofy...the 2nd year for the non-Verducci group have an attrition rate that looks like something from a WWI front-line company.

Quote:
I personally think that Hamels A) probably did take longer to recover from a heavy workload and B) maybe didn't condition himself as thoroughly in the offseason as he had in years past.

I'm not really too upset about this, as far as I'm concerned, those guys on the 2008 team earned a hell of a lot of slack.
I think Hamels is fragile, and last year was completely predictable given his workload the year before.

Quote:
I agree with one of the commenters on that article I found, I think the Verducci theory is an interesting idea that for some reason has become accepted as gospel truth despite a paucity of evidence really supporting it.
Largely because Verducci has been given credit for something he got from baseball people...Verducci didn't "come up" with the Verducci effect, he borrowed it from baseball people. Rick Peterson, in particular, who is one of the folks in baseball that has done a TON of research into pitching mechanics and physiology (he's been involved with James Andrews in figuring out arm fatigue/risk factors).

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Old
02-19-2010, 11:33 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
...of well below the level he pitched at the year before. +1.33 ERA (career high), +.59 BABIP (career high), +.204 WHIP (career high), +.098 OPS (career high)...

I also dislike how statisticians dismiss BABIP numbers as pure "luck" because there's a lot more going on there. That is one of the softest statistics out there. BABIP on a fastball down the middle is going to be higher than a fastball on the hands.
I agree about BABIP, but I believe the Verducci theory has more to do with injury probability, not a decrease in performance.

Quote:
I think Hamels is fragile, and last year was completely predictable given his workload the year before.
Eh, I wouldn't go that far, he would have gone above 200 again last year if he hadn't gotten knocked around so much. Last 3 years he has 28 starts, 33 starts, and 32 starts.

Quote:
Largely because Verducci has been given credit for something he got from baseball people...Verducci didn't "come up" with the Verducci effect, he borrowed it from baseball people. Rick Peterson, in particular, who is one of the folks in baseball that has done a TON of research into pitching mechanics and physiology (he's been involved with James Andrews in figuring out arm fatigue/risk factors).
Eh, well then I wouldn't mind reading what Rick Peterson has to say about it.

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Old
02-19-2010, 11:43 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
I agree about BABIP, but I believe the Verducci theory has more to do with injury probability, not a decrease in performance.
From his analysis above:

Quote:
Each year the breakdown rate of such red-flagged pitchers -- either by injury or drop in performance -- was staggering.
As we've discussed before, I actually think the two are linked...I think fatigue makes you more likely to get injured, and also affects your command performance, which is going to manifest in all your other statistics.

Quote:
Eh, I wouldn't go that far, he would have gone above 200 again last year if he hadn't gotten knocked around so much. Last 3 years he has 28 starts, 33 starts, and 32 starts.
Well, last year his elbow bothered him at the beginning of the year...and I think he suffered from arm fatigue the entire year as far as control was concerned.

Quote:
Eh, well then I wouldn't mind reading what Rick Peterson has to say about it.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...707/index.html

If you haven't read that article, I would highly suggest it as it's one of the better things I've read about pitching in recent memory. It does not deal with the Verducci effect, but the latter half gets into the fact that Peterson isn't some old school baseball guy in how he thinks about this stuff.

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02-19-2010, 12:02 PM
  #44
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5th starter? Here's my VERY early predictions for the "depth chart" of the 5th starter spot.

1. Moyer
2. Kendrick
3. Bastardo
4. Mathieson

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02-19-2010, 12:05 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
5th starter? Here's my VERY early predictions for the "depth chart" of the 5th starter spot.

1. Moyer
2. Kendrick
3. Bastardo
4. Mathieson
It's between Moyer and Kendrick...I don't think Bastardo is even in the discussion, pretty sure he's penciled in as a reliever.

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02-19-2010, 02:00 PM
  #46
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From what I heard from the beat writers on radio its Moyers job to loose. Kendrick still has an option so he can start the year in AAA. And Moyer is making a lot of money to not play. So unless he is injured or horrible he will be the 5th starter.

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02-19-2010, 03:29 PM
  #47
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I think Moyer is much further from being healthy than the Phillies are letting on. I've got Kendrick pretty much penciled in for the #5 spot on opening day.

I was looking at our lineup the other day: Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Victorino, Chooch and noticed that the top 7 have all been all stars. With Halladay coming in and Hamels bouncing back (I feel like he's going to have a very nice year), I am very excited for opening day.

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02-19-2010, 03:35 PM
  #48
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Quote:
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It's between Moyer and Kendrick...I don't think Bastardo is even in the discussion, pretty sure he's penciled in as a reliever.
Yeah I mean Moyer is the clear cut "favorite" for the 5th spot, but I think Bastardo is right up there withe Kendrick for the next option. Mathieson is a long shot though. Bastardo had some quality starts last season and he can really put some heat on the ball.

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02-19-2010, 03:42 PM
  #49
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Yeah I mean Moyer is the clear cut "favorite" for the 5th spot, but I think Bastardo is right up there withe Kendrick for the next option. Mathieson is a long shot though. Bastardo had some quality starts last season and he can really put some heat on the ball.
He has one pitch, however. I'm pretty sure the plan is for Bastardo to be in their pen. He has a role on this team, just not in the rotation. You cannot start with much success for long in the big leagues without a few pitches.

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/p...Breakdown.html

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02-19-2010, 03:50 PM
  #50
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I think Moyer is much further from being healthy than the Phillies are letting on. I've got Kendrick pretty much penciled in for the #5 spot on opening day.

I was looking at our lineup the other day: Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Victorino, Chooch and noticed that the top 7 have all been all stars. With Halladay coming in and Hamels bouncing back (I feel like he's going to have a very nice year), I am very excited for opening day.
We'll have some time to let the no. 5 play out before they'll need to make an executive decision on that front for the year...so it will be interesting.

Assuming Hamels can get back to 2008 Hamels, as opposed to 2009 Hamels...we have two potential 20 game winners. Blanton and Happ are both capable of 10-15 wins. So, the top 4 in this rotation (with this offense) should be able to get us to 60-70 wins. If the no. 5 spot can provide 10 wins, that gets you to 70-80...and then it's a matter of how many wins your BP can get you.

Last year the BP provided 22 wins.
Year before the BP provided 32 wins.

So, what does that mean, on paper this pitching group has a legitimate shot at 100 wins. Relief pitching is, of course, rather unreliable. But 20+ wins should be doable for that group without too much problem if they have a "decent" year.

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