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Old
02-26-2010, 09:58 AM
  #51
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I think BTN is right. Typically, Weber has all the things you pay for. He has the hits, he has the goals, he has the nastiness......teams pay big for all three areas. Suter is quietly just as good, but Weber has that IT factor that teams overspend for.

All things being equal, I think Weber would get more on the open market than Suter. If I am Poile, though, once I lock Weber up - I am offering Suter the exact same or marginally less contract.

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02-26-2010, 11:15 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck
Our tendency to continue drafting defensemen, and I said this after the draft last summer, really worries me that Poile is planning for the day when we have to jettison Weber\Suter. From what I've been told by my "inside" person, Timonen's money demands were never something Nashville was willing to pay, and his exit had nothing to do with the Leipold fiasco--it was going to happen no matter what. My worst fear is when that day comes for Suter and\or Weber. At that point, we cease being a real franchise, and become nothing but a glorified farm team for the big market teams.

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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
As much as I liked Timonen and thought he was a great defensemen, he's not Suter or Weber. He is great whereas as these two are elite and they are showing that on the world stage right now. The reason Poile didn't give Kimmo that sort of money is he's not worth over $6 million a season. Poile knows what he has in Weber and Suter. Hopefully by the time their contracts are up, ticket sales for this franchise will be on the way up and both end up staying. Also, I hope some playoff success happens in the next three years which should translate to better ticket sales as well.
And let's remember that Timonen was 32 at the time of the deal. Weber/Suter will barely be in sight of 28, never mind 30.

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02-26-2010, 12:18 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck
Our tendency to continue drafting defensemen, and I said this after the draft last summer, really worries me
I read somewhere else (sorry, can't remember if it was SI.com, TSN, etc.) that in the past few years there has been a 'glut' of high grade defenseman that not only draft high but pan out. Could it be that this is 'glut' on top of the scouting emphasis from DP in 2002 on building a D core has resulted in this bubble of D-men and now the scouting team just can't help themselves?

Whatever the cause, I agree the asset balance has to be righted. I had always assumed that would happen thru trades if nothing else. For a variety of reasons nothing has materialized to correct the asset imbalance and the Preds are stuck with a great stock of D talent and a dearth of NHL ready scoring forwards.

And I do not think GMs are going to value Weber much more highly over Suter. If they do it will only be for the crowd pleasing value-- you know they are salivating for his intangibles, leadership, solid position play, hockey IQ.

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02-26-2010, 12:41 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by lstcyr View Post
And let's remember that Timonen was 32 at the time of the deal. Weber/Suter will barely be in sight of 28, never mind 30.
Exactly, Timonen was looking for a contract that rewarded him for his past and current performance, which albeit high, was only going to drop off as time progressed.

On the other hand, Weber and Suter will be paid not only for their past and current performance levels, but also for their room still to grow...

I've said it repeatedly, no one will have a cap hit higher than $4.5 million in Nashville until we take care of our homegrown studs first...it's been set up for years to shake out this way. Poile has gone out of his way to stagger contracts to end at a point where it provides us with flexibility to either re-sign veterans if need be or reward and retain our younger players when the time comes...

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02-26-2010, 12:48 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darth5 View Post
I read somewhere else (sorry, can't remember if it was SI.com, TSN, etc.) that in the past few years there has been a 'glut' of high grade defenseman that not only draft high but pan out. Could it be that this is 'glut' on top of the scouting emphasis from DP in 2002 on building a D core has resulted in this bubble of D-men and now the scouting team just can't help themselves?

Whatever the cause, I agree the asset balance has to be righted. I had always assumed that would happen thru trades if nothing else. For a variety of reasons nothing has materialized to correct the asset imbalance and the Preds are stuck with a great stock of D talent and a dearth of NHL ready scoring forwards.
I think there was a major correction last summer at the draft and we are now pretty well stocked at all positions. While the "NHL ready" depth is lagging behind a little bit, it is coming...

Poile, Fenton, and the whole scouting team really began drafting forwards with size and skill or skill and plenty of moxie back in 2006 with the selections of Geoffrion, Flynn, Snellman, and Sjodin (of course the last two didn't work out and Flynn has really stalled at Minnesota). Every year since then it's been the case...
'07 - Spaling, Thang, Thuresson
'08 - Wilson
'09 - Budish, Beck, Latta, Smith, Oliver, Bourque, Reid

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02-26-2010, 01:15 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by SLake View Post
I think there was a major correction last summer at the draft and we are now pretty well stocked at all positions. While the "NHL ready" depth is lagging behind a little bit, it is coming...

Poile, Fenton, and the whole scouting team really began drafting forwards with size and skill or skill and plenty of moxie back in 2006 with the selections of Geoffrion, Flynn, Snellman, and Sjodin (of course the last two didn't work out and Flynn has really stalled at Minnesota). Every year since then it's been the case...
'07 - Spaling, Thang, Thuresson
'08 - Wilson
'09 - Budish, Beck, Latta, Smith, Oliver, Bourque, Reid
Of that group, only Wilson, and possibly Beck and Budish jump out as "good chance of being NHL scorers." Might a few others pan out? Maybe, maybe not.

I can't agree that we're "stocked" with potential NHL scorers. Potential NHL forwards? Yes. Scorers, no.

The Radulov debacle has really stained the best chance we've ever had at a true, homegrown sniper.

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02-26-2010, 09:41 PM
  #57
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I think that for Weber / Suter to stay, Poile is going to have to sign 10 year long term deals for each. I think that will play a major factor.
They are both getting big time exposure in the Olympics that will just ratchet up their value. I think GM's across the league are probably not greatly surprised, but I do think seeing them perform in this pressure packed situation makes their value higher----because they are performing under pressure that is not Nashville. So, they are showing another aspect of their skill--- under intense pressure.

I think that Weber signed the deal he did..........to get the most $ when the deal expired. I don't see it as any indication of anything. If he doesn't like Poile's deal, I think he'll either be here for one year...........or someone will offer him crazy $$$. It's happened before...
I disagree. I think if Weber wanted to se himself up for max dollars in his next deal he would have added a year to this deal so he could be a UFA.

As it is, he did Poile a huge favor.

With Weber coming up for a new deal before Suter, I think Poile knows he could sign Weber, even if it takes 7 million or more. The question will become whether he can afford to sign Suter after he is done with Weber.

and I actually realize that since he's an RFA Poile could negotiate with Weber abd Suter simultaneously after July 1, 2011. Suter would be negotiating an extension but I think its still possible that Poile works a deal with both of them, especially if its important to each one that the other be signed as well..


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Old
02-26-2010, 09:58 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
Of that group, only Wilson, and possibly Beck and Budish jump out as "good chance of being NHL scorers." Might a few others pan out? Maybe, maybe not.

I can't agree that we're "stocked" with potential NHL scorers. Potential NHL forwards? Yes. Scorers, no.

The Radulov debacle has really stained the best chance we've ever had at a true, homegrown sniper.
um... Patric Hornqvist, anyone???

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02-26-2010, 10:03 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
um... Patric Hornqvist, anyone???
He'll do in a pinch. I think people forget it takes time to build up a farm system and have depth at all positions. We're finally starting to get that now that we've been in the league over 10 years. It's not like one day we wake up and have a stocked farm team and NHL team. It takes time and most of all patience. The way Poile has built this team from day 1 has been the right approach. Slow and steady will win the race and in time it will pay off.

In a few years we'll lose Arnott and Sully and replace them with Wilson and possibly a guy from this group of players, Budish, Beck, Radulov or some other no name guy we're forgetting about. Hornqvist was a steal for us and he's only going to get better for us. We get Radulov back possibly and you've got a heck of a first line with Rads, Wilson and Hornqvist. I'm not too worried about the direction of the franchise and the way it's developed over time.

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02-26-2010, 11:00 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
um... Patric Hornqvist, anyone???
I wouldn't consider Horns a sniper.

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02-26-2010, 11:04 PM
  #61
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I wouldn't consider Horns a sniper.
I guess technically not, but he is most definitely a scorer, and I think thats what BTN was really meaning

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02-26-2010, 11:07 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
um... Patric Hornqvist, anyone???
Hornqvist is something of a complementary scorer, though. If he's not on a line that's generating a lot of traffic\shots, he's not going to be effective. His hero is Peter Forsberg, but his play is more Tomas Holmstrom. Don't get me wrong, there's nothign wrong with that and I'm thrilled to have him, but he's not what I'd call a pure goal scorer or "sniper."

Radulov is the kind of guy that could have easily hit 40 goals for us. Hornqvist feels more like a 25-30 guy.

Interestingly enough, if you do some digging, there was a pretty interesting analysis done here on the boards some time ago regarding Poile's draft record when it comes to forwards, particularly those drafted in the first two rounds, going all the way back to the start of his time in Washington. It was a tad unsettling, and I believe a few Caps fans dropped by to basically reiterate what the assumption you could make at a glance: Poile is a beast at drafting defensemen, but really struggles when it comes drafting and developing(by way of the coaching staffs he hires) true scoring forwards. Those that do pop up...Peter Bondra, for example, were often late-round, who-saw-it-coming luck of the draw types. Martin Erat and Hornqvist come to mind for our own situation.

It's that sort of thing that keeps me a little more subdued than most when talking about guys like Budish and Beck.

As an aside...watching Weber play with Canada this tournament...I really wish we had a true EXPERT shot deflector. With his shot, and Franson's as well, I think it would reap immediate dividends on our power play. We naturally score some tipped goals, but a lot of the time it's more incidental. Those that can do it with precision and calculation...when playing off a low cannon shot like Weber or Franson, the results would be insane. See Marleau's goal tonight for an example.

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02-26-2010, 11:31 PM
  #63
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BTN, while Poile's record of drafting offensively gifted forwards is not that great, he has a history of acquiring forwards via trades and free agency to help negate one of his weaknesses. I'm sure the Caps fans don't chime in about trading away Bobby Carpenter for Mike Ridley and Kelly Miller. Both those guys were cornerstones of the Caps for 10 years while Carpenter never amounted to anything in his career. Poile has signed Arnott, Dumont and Kariya as free agent forwards. He traded for Sullivan for two second round picks. He signed Goc as a free agent this offseason and re-signed him for another. He's picked guys like Erat, Tootoo and Hornqvist in the later rounds of the draft. His picks of Legwand, Hartnell and Upshall may not have amounted to the offense we had hoped but Legwand is a solid NHL player and Hartnell and Upshall have had decent NHL careers to this point. He took a guy named Radulov who might have been his crown jewel until he bolted back to Russia. He picked Budish in this years draft in the second round and if the kid hadn't blown out his knee, he's a top 10 pick.

I don't know what people expect from Poile in the draft on a yearly basis but to get 1-2 players a year from each draft is doing your job well as a GM. I think Poile has done just that. You don't build the farm up in one draft or two for that matter. It's done over years and years of work.

How many guys on this team are from drafts? 5 of 6 on the blue line are from the draft and 6 of 7 if you include Sulzer. 4 of them were from the class of 2003. Rinne was a late round pick. Up front we have Legwand, Erat, Tootoo, Hornqvist, O'Reilly, Wilson, Santorelli, Thuresson and Spaling who have all played for the Preds this season. So all in all, you could say at least half this roster is from his drafts. How is that so bad?

We can blame Poile for not drafting more exciting offensive players. We can blame Trotz for not developing their offensive skills more. We can blame the owners for not having enough money to go out and buy dynamic players in free agency. I think with the budget we have, the patience that Poile has shown and the system that Trotz likes to use, I think we've done pretty well as a team. Would I like to see us be better, sure. Will it happen over night, not a chance. We haven't been lucky as a franchise to land a top 5 pick except for the first year we drafted and we picked the right player at the time in Legwand whether or not we want to believe it.

A lot of people complained about us taking Suter at the time. Poile made the right decision then too. He also picked up a guy in the second round that year named Weber who's turned out to be a pretty decent player himself. To pick up two elite players in one draft is a coup IMO. To pick up 4 defensemen that have all played on this team in one draft year is a pretty amazing feat as well.

Poile's next big move is to re-sign Hornqvist to a decent contract for a few years. After that, his next job is finding a back up for Pekka next year and then after that, re-signing Weber and Suter to long term deals that will lock them up for their careers. I would rate the job Poile has done for us as a B+. He's made some bad moves but overall, he's done a very good job at making us a very competitive franchise year in and year out with a limited budget.

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02-27-2010, 10:14 AM
  #64
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I will pass judgement on Radulov after his contract with the KHL. Right now, he's a Prospect developing in Russia. If he comes back and plays he's a huge, cheap boost for the team.

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02-27-2010, 10:49 AM
  #65
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
BTN, while Poile's record of drafting offensively gifted forwards is not that great, he has a history of acquiring forwards via trades and free agency to help negate one of his weaknesses. I'm sure the Caps fans don't chime in about trading away Bobby Carpenter for Mike Ridley and Kelly Miller. Both those guys were cornerstones of the Caps for 10 years while Carpenter never amounted to anything in his career. Poile has signed Arnott, Dumont and Kariya as free agent forwards. He traded for Sullivan for two second round picks. He signed Goc as a free agent this offseason and re-signed him for another. He's picked guys like Erat, Tootoo and Hornqvist in the later rounds of the draft. His picks of Legwand, Hartnell and Upshall may not have amounted to the offense we had hoped but Legwand is a solid NHL player and Hartnell and Upshall have had decent NHL careers to this point. He took a guy named Radulov who might have been his crown jewel until he bolted back to Russia. He picked Budish in this years draft in the second round and if the kid hadn't blown out his knee, he's a top 10 pick.

I don't know what people expect from Poile in the draft on a yearly basis but to get 1-2 players a year from each draft is doing your job well as a GM. I think Poile has done just that. You don't build the farm up in one draft or two for that matter. It's done over years and years of work.

How many guys on this team are from drafts? 5 of 6 on the blue line are from the draft and 6 of 7 if you include Sulzer. 4 of them were from the class of 2003. Rinne was a late round pick. Up front we have Legwand, Erat, Tootoo, Hornqvist, O'Reilly, Wilson, Santorelli, Thuresson and Spaling who have all played for the Preds this season. So all in all, you could say at least half this roster is from his drafts. How is that so bad?

We can blame Poile for not drafting more exciting offensive players. We can blame Trotz for not developing their offensive skills more. We can blame the owners for not having enough money to go out and buy dynamic players in free agency. I think with the budget we have, the patience that Poile has shown and the system that Trotz likes to use, I think we've done pretty well as a team. Would I like to see us be better, sure. Will it happen over night, not a chance. We haven't been lucky as a franchise to land a top 5 pick except for the first year we drafted and we picked the right player at the time in Legwand whether or not we want to believe it.

A lot of people complained about us taking Suter at the time. Poile made the right decision then too. He also picked up a guy in the second round that year named Weber who's turned out to be a pretty decent player himself. To pick up two elite players in one draft is a coup IMO. To pick up 4 defensemen that have all played on this team in one draft year is a pretty amazing feat as well.

Poile's next big move is to re-sign Hornqvist to a decent contract for a few years. After that, his next job is finding a back up for Pekka next year and then after that, re-signing Weber and Suter to long term deals that will lock them up for their careers. I would rate the job Poile has done for us as a B+. He's made some bad moves but overall, he's done a very good job at making us a very competitive franchise year in and year out with a limited budget.
I'm not saying Poile hasn't done a good job with what he has, but I'm also not ready to brand him the best GM in the game, the way some Predators fans are. He has his deficiencies.

If you want to sum it up pretty concisely:

No more than six games into the first round in 4 attempts. Pretty significant for a team that NEEDS a deep playoff run, both from a fisical and exposure standpoint.

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02-27-2010, 11:03 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
I'm not saying Poile hasn't done a good job with what he has, but I'm also not ready to brand him the best GM in the game, the way some Predators fans are. He has his deficiencies.

If you want to sum it up pretty concisely:

No more than six games into the first round in 4 attempts. Pretty significant for a team that NEEDS a deep playoff run, both from a fisical and exposure standpoint.
So what do you expect from him and/or the team? I want to see the team do well in the playoffs too and do some damage but what can you realistically expect from a team with our budget.

We're in a catch-22. We need better players to do better in the playoffs. We need people in the stands to pay for those players. Without the attendance we don't have the budget. We can't put the cart before the horse or we lose the team. I am not thrilled about this approach but this is what it has come down to. Maybe with Bridgestone coming on board will land us other corporate sponsorships and ticket sales. Maybe we do well in the playoffs this year and start getting a buzz about us.

I don't see how you can lambast a GM that has done so well with so little. Look at other teams who have larger budgets that suck. Look at the other teams that came into the league around the time we did and their records in the regular season and playoffs. We have a blessing in David Poile. He's not amazing but he does a pretty darn good job.

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02-27-2010, 11:13 AM
  #67
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So what do you expect from him and/or the team? I want to see the team do well in the playoffs too and do some damage but what can you realistically expect from a team with our budget.

We're in a catch-22. We need better players to do better in the playoffs. We need people in the stands to pay for those players. Without the attendance we don't have the budget. We can't put the cart before the horse or we lose the team. I am not thrilled about this approach but this is what it has come down to. Maybe with Bridgestone coming on board will land us other corporate sponsorships and ticket sales. Maybe we do well in the playoffs this year and start getting a buzz about us.

I don't see how you can lambast a GM that has done so well with so little. Look at other teams who have larger budgets that suck. Look at the other teams that came into the league around the time we did and their records in the regular season and playoffs. We have a blessing in David Poile. He's not amazing but he does a pretty darn good job.
The poverty excuse worked in our first trip to the playoffs, and also our last. Incidentally, those were the closest we came to getting out of the first round.

In 05\06 and 06\07, we not only had one of the best regular season teams, we also had a budget that was as high as it could go without disqualifiying our revenue sharing. Getting spanked in the playoffs is expected when you have the payroll we have right now. It's not when you have a top six of Arnott, Dumont, Legwand, Erat, Kariya and Forsberg...and guys like Hartnell and Radulov on your third line. That was Leipold's swan song, a last hurrah to try to get deep in the playoffs. We made the Forsberg trade...and he was one of our best players. The injury to Sullivan hurt, but what KILLED us in that series was the complete impotence of Arnott and Kariya. Two of the same guys you're hailing as signs of Poile's greatness. One of which racked up a lot of points playing the Blue Jackets and the Blackhawks, but always seemed to go MIA when it mattered, and the other who as of this season is on pace for his lowest goalscoring total EVER, and has twice had streaks of 15 games without a goal--not to mention veiled comments made by some players about the leadership of the team.

But...like I said, I think you're mistaking me not bowing to my knees and kissing the ground Poile walks on for thinking he's a bad GM. I just pointed out that he's had trouble drafting offensive players. Caps fans will back that up. I also pointed out that his teams have always had trouble going deep in the playoffs...something that, again, Caps fans will corroborate.

By the way, not to nitpick...I've NEVER seen Budish called a "top ten pick" if he wasn't injured. As someone who follows all the ISS\CSS reports every year, and has for years, the highest I ever saw Budish projected before his injury(and by the way, shame on his parents...if you have a player that's projected to be what Budish is\was, he's focusing on hockey his senior year, and not taking a silly risk by playing football, too) was in the 20-30 range. The only time I've ever seen someone claiming that he was going to be a first round pick was on this board, with no sort of information to back it up. And I really like him as a prospect, but let's not get ahead of ourselves...he's having an okay season on a bad team, but nothing to really get excited about yet.

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02-27-2010, 11:25 AM
  #68
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BTN, I think you are overestimating what I'm saying about Poile. I don't revere him as much as you think I do. Also, how does a team failing in the playoffs fall on the GM? Isn't it the coaches responsibility to get these guys ready for the playoffs? Isn't it on the players to show up?

I also think you're misinterpreting what I'm saying about Arnott and Kariya. Guys like that would never come here for a long time but Poile got them here. They are good players, not elite, but players that helped the depth of the team. Kariya had a good history in the playoffs up until he came here. Is it Poile's fault the guy didn't produce?

GM's all take chances and some work and some don't.

As far as Budish goes, he never got ranked higher than he did because he already blew out his knee. If he hadn't, the scouting depts had him going as a higher pick, top 10. They're not going to rate a kid who just blew out his knee higher than guys that were healthy. For a kid to be having a good year on a bad team says a lot about him. If he does well with poor teammates, what will he do when surrounded by good ones?

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02-27-2010, 11:46 AM
  #69
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As far as Budish goes, he never got ranked higher than he did because he already blew out his knee. If he hadn't, the scouting depts had him going as a higher pick, top 10. They're not going to rate a kid who just blew out his knee higher than guys that were healthy. For a kid to be having a good year on a bad team says a lot about him. If he does well with poor teammates, what will he do when surrounded by good ones?
Exactly, Budish was never ranked as a top ten pick due to his knee injury. However, he was referred to exactly as described in almost all the summaries I read about him..."would have been a top 10 pick had he not torn his ACL playing football..."

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02-27-2010, 12:17 PM
  #70
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I wonder if it the system (defense and discipline) that Trotz and Poile have chosen limits offensive/scoring development. Players are not allowed to be overly aggressive in Milwaukee or in Nashville. The are encouraged to be responsible defensively. But because we are a small market team with a small market budget, we can only afford players with less talent. And these players often flourish in a team based approach where chemistry and playing within a specified role are required.

I think this system stifles those who may develop into scorers. Radulov obviously did not like it. Peverly has 18 goals and 26 assists (44 points) in 60 games this year with Atlanta. Dumont and Hornqvist, our team leaders, only have 37 points each. But Peverly is also a minus 13 while Dumont and Hornqvist are plus 11 and 10 respectively.

Honestly I think it is as much the system necessitated by our financial constraints that influences the development of a strong defensive team with little offensive flair. Poile knows this and drafts accordingly.

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02-28-2010, 11:19 AM
  #71
jlsg
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barrytrotzsneck View Post
The injury to Sullivan hurt, but what KILLED us in that series was the complete impotence of Arnott and Kariya.
The reason for their ineffectiveness was Erat's injury. That, along with Sully being out, rearranged the lines to the point that Forsberg was playing with Fids and Abid on the 3rd line. The reason for the teams success that year was being able to put out 3 really strong lines. Reduce that to 2 average lines and we lost the matchup advantage that we had.

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02-28-2010, 07:50 PM
  #72
Synergy27
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I didn't read this entire thread, but I saw Suter's name and figured this would be a good spot, instead of starting a new thread, for me to express my amazement at how good of a player this kid has become. As a guy who doesn't get to see him very often I was absolutely awed by his performance in the Olympics. What a poised, smooth, play in all situations defenseman you guys have here. I'm glad most of you seem to understand what you have in him. Enjoy his career!

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02-28-2010, 11:08 PM
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Congrats to both Weber and Suter for a great, great showing at the Olympics. Suter was simply amazing and I think largely carried the D play for the Americans. Wilson had him out constantly and in major situations. He was fantastic. I hope the pair come back and rip it up here at the end of the season, rather than have a let-down after such an amazing Olympics. Their ability to sustain play, along with Pekka's ability to play with a new contract, probably will determine our fate down the stretch.

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02-28-2010, 11:17 PM
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Suter played 31:31 in the gold medal game, almost four minutes more than the next highest total...

Suter played every other shift for most of the game including an amazing 11:38 in the third period alone and 4:12 of the 7:40 that was played in OT...

For the tournament, Suter lead the team in average ice time, assists, and plus/minus rating...

IMO, Suter was the most underrated player in the entire event and propelled Rafalski to the award for "Best Defenseman" of the tournament.

I will predict it now, Ryan Suter will be the captain of Team USA in 2014 if NHL players again participate...

Weber was just simply awesome to watch all tournament too, but he scored the goals, made the thundering hits, and got a gold medal...so in my book he's gotten plenty of recognition already!

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03-01-2010, 08:29 AM
  #75
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Wow.....Suter with 31 and a half minutes. Holy crap.

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