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Old
03-18-2010, 03:36 PM
  #1
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2011 Entry Draft


Hey folks, this is my first post on HFBoards. Iíve been quietly observing the Leafs this season from preseason to the present and Iíve been trying to figure out what the next step is in the rebuild process for this team. Obviously everyoneís focus is deservedly on the Kessel trade. I know we are all sick of people bashing the deal, and Iím a huge fan of Phil, but I also believe that the Leafs really need a top 5 pick in the near future if this team wants to be successful in the long term.

Our first round pick is gone for the 2010 draft and Boston is going to have it for better or for worse, but Iím wondering if itís not impossible for us to recover our 2011 first round pick back from Boston. My question to the boards is: what do you think it would take for us to recover our 1st round pick in 2011? Iím thinking Boston might consider a deal of something along the lines of Kaberle + a good young player. Someone like Hanson, Stalberg or Paradis. I like these players, but in all honesty they arenít topflight talents. If we were able to gain our pick back, I also think itís very likely that we would finish near the bottom of the standings again next year. For as much flak as Kabs has been getting lately, heís still the best D-man on this team and is 6th in scoring for D-men in the entire league (behind Green, Keith, Doughty, Pronger and Boyle Ė good company) and is one of the best puck moving D-men in addition to having a very affordable contract . Losing his 47 points will hurt this team anyway you look at it. Hypothetically, if we were to finish at or near the bottom of the standings, we could end up with the number one overall pick and still have the 22 year old Kessel on our team.

In essence we would have traded our 1st round pick in 2010, our second round pick in 2011, Tomas Kaberle and Hanson/Stalberg /Paradis for Phil Kessel. Cleary Boston wins this trade, but at least we end up not squandering our opportunity to pick very high in the draft (something which we havenít done in as long as I can remember) and we still get a top 3 winger in Kessel to play with our 2011 pick in the long term. Having a top 3-5 pick to play with Kessel and still having Kadri upcoming could give us the potential to be more than a fringe playoff team (and honestly, that is all the potential this roster has).

In addition, we would be freeing up 4.25 million dollars in cap space on our heavily stacked back end for next season which can be used to sign a free agent forward or two (Burke has said he is dedicated to mining the FA market this offseason) to fill out our under experienced top 6. Lastly, with Kaberleís NTC not in play during the upcoming offseason, we wonít have to worry about that complication and it will clear the way for Phaneuf to become the true #1 D-man he is supposed to be.

So what do you think? Is this a total pipe dream or a possibility? Is it possible to pry our pick in 2011 away from Boston without putting Schenn/Kadri on the table (a mistake in my opinion)? Thanks for reading.

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03-18-2010, 04:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adeiny View Post

Hey folks, this is my first post on HFBoards. Iíve been quietly observing the Leafs this season from preseason to the present and Iíve been trying to figure out what the next step is in the rebuild process for this team. Obviously everyoneís focus is deservedly on the Kessel trade. I know we are all sick of people bashing the deal, and Iím a huge fan of Phil, but I also believe that the Leafs really need a top 5 pick in the near future if this team wants to be successful in the long term.

Our first round pick is gone for the 2010 draft and Boston is going to have it for better or for worse, but Iím wondering if itís not impossible for us to recover our 2011 first round pick back from Boston. My question to the boards is: what do you think it would take for us to recover our 1st round pick in 2011? Iím thinking Boston might consider a deal of something along the lines of Kaberle + a good young player. Someone like Hanson, Stalberg or Paradis. I like these players, but in all honesty they arenít topflight talents. If we were able to gain our pick back, I also think itís very likely that we would finish near the bottom of the standings again next year. For as much flak as Kabs has been getting lately, heís still the best D-man on this team and is 6th in scoring for D-men in the entire league (behind Green, Keith, Doughty, Pronger and Boyle Ė good company) and is one of the best puck moving D-men in addition to having a very affordable contract . Losing his 47 points will hurt this team anyway you look at it. Hypothetically, if we were to finish at or near the bottom of the standings, we could end up with the number one overall pick and still have the 22 year old Kessel on our team.

In essence we would have traded our 1st round pick in 2010, our second round pick in 2011, Tomas Kaberle and Hanson/Stalberg /Paradis for Phil Kessel. Cleary Boston wins this trade, but at least we end up not squandering our opportunity to pick very high in the draft (something which we havenít done in as long as I can remember) and we still get a top 3 winger in Kessel to play with our 2011 pick in the long term. Having a top 3-5 pick to play with Kessel and still having Kadri upcoming could give us the potential to be more than a fringe playoff team (and honestly, that is all the potential this roster has).

In addition, we would be freeing up 4.25 million dollars in cap space on our heavily stacked back end for next season which can be used to sign a free agent forward or two (Burke has said he is dedicated to mining the FA market this offseason) to fill out our under experienced top 6. Lastly, with Kaberleís NTC not in play during the upcoming offseason, we wonít have to worry about that complication and it will clear the way for Phaneuf to become the true #1 D-man he is supposed to be.

So what do you think? Is this a total pipe dream or a possibility? Is it possible to pry our pick in 2011 away from Boston without putting Schenn/Kadri on the table (a mistake in my opinion)? Thanks for reading.
IMO Pipedream, Kaberle had more value last summer when he had two years left on his deal. He's going to become a UFA after next year so Boston would only have one playoff run with him. So no I don't think we can get our first rounder back next year without giving up a top young player. But... I will say I rather trade him this summer for Boston's late first rounder and a prospect like Colbourne. Just to get back a first rounder will sort of save face for the Kessel deal. Plus then we have a whole year to worry about what to do to get a 2011 first round pick. Kaberle is as good as gone in a couple of months.

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03-18-2010, 07:21 PM
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First off welcome to the boards.

I would make this a longer post relevant to the topic at hand but dinner calls.

Hope you stick around because your post looks really thought out and we could use more posters like that

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03-18-2010, 07:52 PM
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Ya man - something interesting I've thought about is to re-acquire our 011' first as you say, and then use it to send offer sheets off on guys like Wolski, who would likely demand a 1st and a 3rd from such a deal. If we were to acquire our pick back, most likely Burke would try to do this, as he seems set on bringing in NHL-ready players... that's why I don't see us attempting any sort of reacquisition. I think he is content on continuing to draft high in 012', and for now wants prospects who can or are near to stepping in.

A good testament to this philosophy must be why he did not trade Kaberle before the deadline. Sure Kaberle had more value at that point than he will this summer, in theory - but as teams aren't willing to tear apart their forward rosters, of which players we certainly would be looking at, Burke probably saw it as more valuable to retain Kaberle so as to be able to deal him to a wider market, then free of immediate playoff ambition, and willing to deal a wider variety of players. No team of reported interest in Kaberle would have been willing to send back the requisite forward - and may in fact, after the playoffs, realize that their lack of puck-moving talent is more dire than thought, and value Kaberle more as a result.

For example, if the Kaberle for Alzner deal were true, then I can see why Burke didn't act, as he probably wanted a guy like Fehr along with him - and as Washington needed him for their playoff-run, they weren't willing to deal him and the trade never went....

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03-18-2010, 07:56 PM
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love the times new roman thing u have going there, CLLLASSSYY

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Old
03-18-2010, 08:12 PM
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That's too much to give up for our 2011 first.
It sounds even worse when you say we gave up Kaberle, Stalberg, 2010 1st, 2011 2nd for Kessel.
As far as the prospect part goes, I think Stalberg is a decent player, he's no superstar, but you are not guaranteed to get one in the draft anyways, even with a top 5 pick. I would rather just let them keep the 2011, we could get more for Kaberle and a prospect.
This team will not be as bad as everyone thinks next season, what we are doing now is perfect... let the young guys play and learn how to be good together, and by next season they can hit the ground running chemistry-wise. Just look at what Colorado and Phoenix did this season with the forward groups they have. Playoffs are not out of the question for next season.


Last edited by Lebanese Leaf: 03-18-2010 at 08:30 PM.
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03-18-2010, 08:25 PM
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IMO, Boston doesn't move that pick until they know they have no chance at Larrson. He, to me, is the best prospect since Crosby and you don't give up a chance to get a player like that.

One thing I can tell you Leafs fans, is Peter Chiarelli is not a risk taker. He has been unwilling to move the required pieces to get Hossa and Kovalchuk in back-to-back trade deadlines. His trades are very low risk moves.

He's not the type of guy to move 2-4 bluechip pieces for an older vet. I would of loved to of seen Chris Pronger here but that was a ballies move by Philadelphia, a move that Chiarelli doesn't have the stones to do.

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03-18-2010, 08:46 PM
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The Leafs have a real shot at being in the same position as they in this season, next season. I highly doubt the Bruins are looking to move that pick anytime soon.

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Old
03-18-2010, 08:49 PM
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Quote:
Kaberle had more value last summer when he had two years left on his deal. He's going to become a UFA after next year so Boston would only have one playoff run with him. So no I don't think we can get our first rounder back next year without giving up a top young player. But... I will say I rather trade him this summer for Boston's late first rounder and a prospect like Colbourne. Just to get back a first rounder will sort of save face for the Kessel deal. Plus then we have a whole year to worry about what to do to get a 2011 first round pick.
Yeah, I was afraid that Kaberleís contract might deter Boston. Colbourne looks like a good prospect and might fit well on the new look Leafs. His height will definitely be a bonus because this team is lacking some size up the middle.

Quote:
Ya man - something interesting I've thought about is to re-acquire our 011' first as you say, and then use it to send offer sheets off on guys like Wolski, who would likely demand a 1st and a 3rd from such a deal. If we were to acquire our pick back, most likely Burke would try to do this, as he seems set on bringing in NHL-ready players... that's why I don't see us attempting any sort of reacquisition. I think he is content on continuing to draft high in 012', and for now wants prospects who can or are near to stepping in.
Iím thinking that it might be in our best interest to hang onto the pick rather than dealing it again. I might just be pessimistic, but I honestly donít see this team finishing out of the bottom 10. A pick like that would be very valuable to the Leafs, and if it ends up being a lottery pick it could be a turning point for the franchise. Granted I did see the press conference Burke gave on trade deadline day were he said he wants NHL ready players, but I just canít see him going into the draft in 29th without a first round pick. Also, if we do draft high in 2012, that will mean weíve missed the playoffs for 7 straight seasons. Burke really wonít let this happen, Iím sure. Even long term rebuilding teams like Pittsburgh and LA never missed the playoffs for more than 6 seasons (I think, at least).

Quote:
A good testament to this philosophy must be why he did not trade Kaberle before the deadline. Sure Kaberle had more value at that point than he will this summer, in theory - but as teams aren't willing to tear apart their forward rosters, of which players we certainly would be looking at, Burke probably saw it as more valuable to retain Kaberle so as to be able to deal him to a wider market, then free of immediate playoff ambition, and willing to deal a wider variety of players. No team of reported interest in Kaberle would have been willing to send back the requisite forward - and may in fact, after the playoffs, realize that their lack of puck-moving talent is more dire than thought, and value Kaberle more as a result.
I think you might be right on this. Players do tend to perform best in contract years, and the fact that Kaberle will be turning 33 at the end of 2011 means that teams are probably glad that he isnít locked up long term. I guess we will have to wait and see what the market is like for free agents this summer. Whoís available anyway? Marleau, Plekanec and Kovalchuk are all that really come to mind as far as top end FA are concerned.


Quote:
For example, if the Kaberle for Alzner deal were true, then I can see why Burke didn't act, as he probably wanted a guy like Fehr along with him - and as Washington needed him for their playoff-run, they weren't willing to deal him and the trade never went....
Burke probably wasnít interested in adding anymore prospects to the D-core. IMO we are pretty set for the foreseeable future. Phaneuf, Beauchemin, and Komisarek are locked up long term and Gunnarsson and Schenn are some good young players Iíd like to see stick around.

Quote:
That's too much to give up for our 2011 first.
It sounds a lot worse when you say we gave up Kaberle, Stalberg, 2010 1st, 2011 2nd for Kessel.
As far as the prospect part goes, I think Stalberg is a decent player, he's no superstar, but you are not guaranteed to get one in the draft anyways, even with a top 5 pick. I would rather just let them keep the 2011, we could get more for Kaberle and a prospect.
I agree it sounds like too much on paper, but if you were the GM of the Bruins would you really trade back our pick for Kaberle alone? Personally I would be inclined not to, seeing as they ended up with a top 5 (however it plays out in the end) this year. Then again trades can be unpredictable. I will say that Kaberle wonít necessarily be netting us a top prospect. He has good value, but his age will certainly be a factor. The way I see it is that we would be gambling that our pick would be very high. If it pans out we could conceivably end up with the first or second pick. I would certainly deal Kaberle + prospect for the number one pick in 2011.

Quote:
This team will not be as bad as everyone thinks next season, what we are doing now is perfect... let the young guys play and learn how to be good together, and by next season they can hit the ground running chemistry-wise. Just look at what Colorado and Phoenix did this season with the forward groups they have. Playoffs are not out of the question for next season.
I want to believe this, for sure, but Iím sceptical because most people predicated (myself included) that we would be making the playoffs this year. I like a lot of the young players on this team, but I worry that we donít have the elite talent that is required to be a competitor.

Quote:
IMO, Boston doesn't move that pick until they know they have no chance at Larrson. He, to me, is the best prospect since Crosby and you don't give up a chance to get a player like that.

One thing I can tell you Leafs fans, is Peter Chiarelli is not a risk taker. He has been unwilling to move the required pieces to get Hossa and Kovalchuk in back-to-back trade deadlines. His trades are very low risk moves.
If you look at it from another angle, Boston will be receiving a proven elite D-man and a solid prospect while giving up a pick that could end up being in the middle of the pack (I think it's less likely that it will end up being in the range that the 2010 pick will be). I'm not overly familiar with the situation in Boston, but I remember them being a very good team last year. Aren't they committed to regaining that form rather than starting again by massing draft picks?

What's with the avatar, by the way? Classy man.

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