The way I see it, Kesler clearly took something that Gillis was very comfortable with, otherwise there's no way this negotiation would have been concluded so quickly. Gillis clearly has a long term plan and if Kesler's salary demands didn't fit into it, he would have had all sorts of other options before caving. I think it's impossible to say how much of a cut he took vs. going on the market, be it as an RFA getting an offer sheet or going through arbitration, or the 4 years of UFA status that he would have been free to negotiate after that contract. All I can safely say is that it's a deal the team is very comfortable with moving forward.
As reported by Cam Cole, here is what Gillis had to say about Kesler's players need to take pay cuts to make the team a Stanley Cup winner comments one year ago:
Quote:
He may not have held Kesler to that keep-the-team-together discount the Team USA star was advocating last year, but Gillis won’t complain.
“Hold him to it? No,” he said. “The fact that he was prepared to sign for the premium years of his hockey career was an indication that he was willing to make the concessions necessary to stay here and be a core player in our group – and that was enough for us.”
Firstly, I don't see Johnson being brought back. Alex Bolduc can fill in well for him.
Second, Rypien probably plays over Hordichuk.
Third, if we are to ice a similar roster to that, I'd expect Bernier to be gone. Perhaps Hansen slides up, or potentially an all-rookie line of Grabner-Hodgson and Schroeder?
Bolduc cannot "fill in well" for him. Both him and Johnson are equally bad options, this season (and many of the past 5) have shown the importance of the 3rd and 4th line centre positions. With Hodgson hopefully making the team in a 3rd line role I think it's extremely important (just as important as sorting out the defence imo) we pick up a good bottom 6 centre who can anchor the 4th line or even step up to the 3rd if Hodgson struggles at times (which is to be expected).
Someone like McClement or Halpern is still ideal, even after the deadline. No more freakin scrubs or hodgepodge, crappy bottom 6 lines. If we want to take the next step we have to take these spots seriously.
Been down this road before - 1982, 1994, WCE heyday...
Me too. The current edition is the best core. The WCE team could've and should've won the cup in '03 had management addressed the goaltending issue (which is why the current core is better). The 1994 team was excellent all around and stood out for the amazing chemistry it had, but then couldn't build on its previous successes. The current core is demonstrating the kind of trajectory one expects from a championship team. It's balanced from the net out and has outstanding scoring depth.
As reported by Cam Cole, here is what Gillis had to say about Kesler's players need to take pay cuts to make the team a Stanley Cup winner comments one year ago:
To me, what speaks to the evolution of Ryan Kesler most, is when you take into account where he was when we signed him to his last contract. It was 3 years, at $1.75M, and even then, people were saying that it was a slight overpayment.
If you were to have told those same people back then that Kesler's next contract would be a 6 year deal worth $5M per, and that this would be market value, they would have called you entirely insane.
As reported by Cam Cole, here is what Gillis had to say about Kesler's players need to take pay cuts to make the team a Stanley Cup winner comments one year ago:
One of the things to like about Kesler moving forward is the fact that he actually does try to improve instead of just saying that as a cliche answer. Last summer he realized his shot wasn't good enough so he shot 500 pucks a day to work on it. Now he almost looks like Nazzy when he snipes that wrist shot on the PP.
I think he can take his goal scoring to the next level in the coming years so that he's around a 30 goal guy per season. He's pretty focused on creating opportunities for his linemates five on five but he has the good shot now so he needs to learn how to get himself open more. Samuelsson is probably a good guy to help him with that because he's really good at getting himself open just enough to get his shot off.
Cap wise, the 6 year deal was the best scenario for Gillis.
2 years of RFA at 4.5M followed by 4-5 years of 6M cap hit would have made overall team cap mgmt that much more difficult. This way the cap hit is stable for 6 years at 5M per.
As reported by Cam Cole, here is what Gillis had to say about Kesler's players need to take pay cuts to make the team a Stanley Cup winner comments one year ago:
The way I see it Wet, and I'm one of the few at CDC that misses your insight, Kesler didn't take anything but market value if it were only a 2-year deal.
His value was set by the RFA offersheet compensation chart:
Quote:
OFFER
COMPENSATION
$994,433 or below None
Over $994,433 to $1,506,716 Third-round choice
Over $1,506,716 to $3,013,434 Second-round choice
Over $3,013,434 to $4,520,150 First-round and third-round choice Over $4,520,150 to $6,026,867 First-round, second-round and third-round choice
Over $6,026,867 to $7,533,584 Two first-round choices, one second- and one third-round choice
Over $7,533,584 Four first-round choices
Using the $4.5m 1st & 3rd compensation as being ridiculously under Kesler's value to any team, a hometeam discount would have been a 2-year/$9m deal (arbitration would have awarded him $5.5m using Ribeiro as a less complete player) after which point he would have likely garnered at least a 4-year/$26m+ deal as an UFA given the offensive powerhouse he plays on. So, if you do the math, it was a discount when you consider Kesler could have made $35m over 6yrs instead of the $30m he'll be getting as of now.
Just a few nuggets to consider:
The Sedins, at age 25, put up 70pt seasons as 2nd liners and re-signed for $3.575m under a $44m cap, or 8.125% of the team's cap. In today's $56.8m cap, that's a $4.615m salary. Keep in mind the Sedins were solid two-way performers but neither one was nominated for the Selke nor do they possess Kesler's speed.
Mike Fisher signed a 5-year/$21m extension just prior to the $50.3m cap season in 2007/2008, or 8.35% of the salary cap. In today's $56.8m cap, that translates to a $4.75m salary and Kesler's $5m is only marginally higher.
This salary will once again look great by year three just like his last 3 years looked like a steal at $1.75m.
This is fantastic news for the Canucks. Kesler's the best defensive forward in franchise history. He was a Selke finalist last year (he should have won it last year, but we're back to the days of the Selke going to the best two-way forward, and not the best defensive forward). Kesler will probably be a Selke finalist this year, too, but it'll probably go to Parise thanks to Parise's two-way excellence.
The beautiful part about Kesler is he can match up against anybody. He's quick enough and smart enough to play against the slick, offensive centres; he's big enough, strong enough and physical enough to play against the skilled power centres. He's strong in the face-off circle. There isn't anything he can't do.
Which is why he's a bargain at $5 million.
I think this is as good as it will get for Kesler. Offensively, he might be playing a little over his head. But even if he settles back into the 60-point range, it'll be a great contract for a player who brings so much to the team.
I remember in the late 80s and early 90s, we used to always bemoan playing against Joel Otto - the powerhouse defensive centre for the Flames. Kesler is this generation's Otto - a power centre who can play in all situations, and give you everything you could ever ask for. Kesler's faster than Otto, a little smaller than Otto, but he's still this generation's Otto.
Now if only we could get that elite No. 1 defenceman that we've always coveted...
I think this is as good as it will get for Kesler. Offensively, he might be playing a little over his head. But even if he settles back into the 60-point range, it'll be a great contract for a player who brings so much to the team.
Surely if the Sedins could improve their speed by roller blading up Swedish hills all summer Kesler can improve his release, shot accuracy and shot power by shooting 500 pucks a day all summer?
I don't think it's much of a stretch to suggest that as hard of a worker as Kesler is he's bound to improve year in, year out just as the Sedins have done.
Surely if the Sedins could improve their speed by roller blading up Swedish hills all summer Kesler can improve his release, shot accuracy and shot power by shooting 500 pucks a day all summer?
I don't think it's much of a stretch to suggest that as hard of a worker as Kesler is he's bound to improve year in, year out just as the Sedins have done.
Good call Millerdraft. I completely agree with this notion. The best players are almost always the hardest workers. They've got the skills, but all of these guys have taken it upon themselves to work and work to improve missing elements of their game. It's not a fluke that they have improved year after year. The same goes for Luongo, who apparently also works tirelessly on his game.
I believe that given his work ethic it's not too much of a stretch to think that Kesler could raise his game to an even higher level. Actually, his play during the Olympics I believe was a glimpse of what he could bring consistently in the future.
I also think this is why you keep a guy like Mason Raymond around. From all reports, he's constantly working on improving his skills - always last off the ice, and in alone to work with the skills coach. He's another guy that has improved year after year, and with his work ethic there's no reason to think he won't take another couple of leaps in the next few seasons. These are the guys you build team's around, and it's refreshing to see that Gillis recognizes this.
I remember when... Kesler scored on a break away MANY years ago and everyone was quite shocked he did so... Kesler at 1.9 million was a massive overpayment for Kesler and some (including myself) would have opted for the 32nd overall pick... 2 years ago when Kesler as a second line player (winger or center) was a crazy notion and I got lots of flack for that one... last year when Kesler = Richards was crazy cause Kesler was always going to be a 'poor mans' Richards...
Here's a good look at what Kesler has had to contend with over the last three seasons:
Quote:
One guy who stands out is Ryan Kesler - he started in his own zone as often as anyone else on this list, and the Canucks still managed to generate a much better shot differential when he was on the ice than when he was off. This is also a testament to the defensive skills of Sami Salo, Alex Burrows and Willie Mitchell, who've frequently been Kesler's linemates in these tough situations. Vancouver might not have the most famous shutdown unit in the league, but they certainly have one of the best.
Basically he's played some of the toughest minutes in the league, starting in his own zone a ton and playing against the top lines of other teams, yet his lines have been able to generate a positive relative Corsi differential despite the deck being stacked against them. Pretty impressive stuff.
Basically he's played some of the toughest minutes in the league, starting in his own zone a ton and playing against the top lines of other teams, yet his lines have been able to generate a positive relative Corsi differential despite the deck being stacked against them. Pretty impressive stuff.
Those just go to show that him and Koivu are probably the two best defensive forwards in the NHL. Kesler has a slightly higher QoC and starts in the defensive zone a lot more but Koivu has a slightly higher Corsi. The only forward on that list that's even close is Zetterberg who has a higher corsi but has a much lower QoC and starts in the defensive zone way less. For Kesler to score as much as he has the last two years is down right ridiculous.
Those just go to show that him and Koivu are probably the two best defensive forwards in the NHL. Kesler has a slightly higher QoC and starts in the defensive zone a lot more but Koivu has a slightly higher Corsi. The only forward on that list that's even close is Zetterberg who has a higher corsi but has a much lower QoC and starts in the defensive zone way less. For Kesler to score as much as he has the last two years is down right ridiculous.
I probably should have mentioned it in the original post but offensive/defensive zone starts have a fairly substantial impact on Corsi on the order of about +0.8 Corsi per offensive zone faceoff. Kesler's relative Corsi would be higher than Koviu's if you accounted for the difference in zone starts.
Zetterberg is hurt because this is relative and not absolute Corsi - relative Corsi takes into account the Corsi number of your team. He obviously benefits from being able to play in front of Nick Lidstrom a lot, so you need some normalization, but he's also hurt by having Pavel Datsyuk taking a lot of shifts independent of him.
The way I see it Wet, and I'm one of the few at CDC that misses your insight, Kesler didn't take anything but market value if it were only a 2-year deal.
His value was set by the RFA offersheet compensation chart:
Using the $4.5m 1st & 3rd compensation as being ridiculously under Kesler's value to any team, a hometeam discount would have been a 2-year/$9m deal (arbitration would have awarded him $5.5m using Ribeiro as a less complete player) after which point he would have likely garnered at least a 4-year/$26m+ deal as an UFA given the offensive powerhouse he plays on. So, if you do the math, it was a discount when you consider Kesler could have made $35m over 6yrs instead of the $30m he'll be getting as of now.
Just a few nuggets to consider:
The Sedins, at age 25, put up 70pt seasons as 2nd liners and re-signed for $3.575m under a $44m cap, or 8.125% of the team's cap. In today's $56.8m cap, that's a $4.615m salary. Keep in mind the Sedins were solid two-way performers but neither one was nominated for the Selke nor do they possess Kesler's speed.
Mike Fisher signed a 5-year/$21m extension just prior to the $50.3m cap season in 2007/2008, or 8.35% of the salary cap. In today's $56.8m cap, that translates to a $4.75m salary and Kesler's $5m is only marginally higher.
This salary will once again look great by year three just like his last 3 years looked like a steal at $1.75m.
