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Old
03-26-2010, 02:38 AM
  #51
Skk82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tender Rip View Post
Inarguably he is not. If we were to win it this year, then you can argue that. On the team that actually won, he was 6th in ES ice time, 5th in PK time and 2nd in PP time.
His numbers were great - so were Eaton's btw. and he was more important - but those flatter to deceive just as much as Letang's disappointing numbers this season don't tell the full story.

It remains that he is an RFA without arbitration rights and that we will have a hell of a hard time with the cap this off-season. Unless he takes something really reasonable, Shero should simply Dubinsky him or take him to arbitration himself.

Vlasic's numbers in the season leading up to his 4 year, 3.1 million per deal:
82 games, 6 goals, 30 assists, 36 points, +15

Edler's numbers in the season leading up to his 4 year, 3.25 million per deal:
80 games, 10 goals, 27 assists, 37 points, +11

Letang presently:
65 games, 3 goals, 24 assists, 27 points, +2

Vlasic is much better than Letang defensively and not as good offensively (playing shutdown unit on San Jose) whereas Edler's is just better than Letang alround.
In any case Kris has no business getting more than either of them, and they're really nice examples for Shero to point to if he wants to take him to arbitration.
Great post. But since this is Letang's entry level contract, he does not have arbitration rights.

I think Letang is going to boost his status this post-season, he did great last night against Ovechkin and the Caps (minus the Semin shorty, which was mainly on Goligoski, IMO). But if Letang plays 20+ shut-down minutes with Orpik, he's probably going to shine and enhance his game.

Goligoski wasn't even an NHL regular and got $1.83 for three years mainly on his promise. You'd have to think Letang's looking at about 3 years, $3 million per as a starting point, assuming he's going to hit a stride and start putting pucks in the net, especially if Gonchar leaves and KL gets more meaningful PP time.

I'd love, ideally, to see Letang get like a 1 year, $2.5 million contract. It doesn't give him the guarantee of a long-term deal, but it give him the chance to fufill his potential and if he scores like 10+ goals next season he's in line to get $4 million next summer....Which is a better deal for the team, since he'll have to prove himself in the 10-11 season and is about the same average salary anyways if he would sign a 2-3 year deal this summer.

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03-26-2010, 02:46 AM
  #52
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By the way, I don't think I even believe the initial rumor that Letang and his agent shot down a $3.5 million deal....The Pens have been consistent on having Gonchar as the "first domino to fall", and even though by now Shero knows what Gonchar wants, I don't seem him even offering Letang that much money at this point. Quite frankly, IMO, if Letang was offered $3.5 million he ought to jump at it, because he doesn't have too much leverage this time around.

It's not like Letang is having a breakout offensive year to prove himself to deserve that much, and since Letang doesn't have arbitration rights, there's no reason to believe a team will give him an offer sheet on July 1 that Pittsburgh couldn't match.

In this case I think Shero's holding all the cards. See how the playoffs go, watch how the Gonchar situation pans out and there's plenty of time to slow-play Letang, all he needs is a qualifying offer and the team will almost certainly bring him back.

Short of the draft picks another team would have to give up for a $3-4 million a year deal (which I think is debatable that an opposing GM would even offer), Letang's just not proven he's an elite offensive defenseman yet. He's got all the promise in the world, but he has a lot of NHL games under his belt, but not a ton of production relative to the minutes he's gotten.

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03-26-2010, 03:20 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Skk82 View Post
Great post. But since this is Letang's entry level contract, he does not have arbitration rights.
I know, but unless I am mistaken (?), the club can still choose to take him to arbitration. As I understand the rules, the club can choose to do so at any time when a player is RFA, whereas Letang has yet to work up the NHL tenure to have that right.
It just doesn't happen very often that it is in the clubs interest to go to arbitration more so than the player.

In Letang's case it might be though, because his potential is a ways higher than what he has actually delivered (especially in arbitration terms, because here numbers really matter), and if Shero takes him to arbitration, then that means the risk of an offer sheet is out the window. If Shero doesn't get a solution done and an offer sheet does arrive, then he cannot take Letang to arbitration.

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03-26-2010, 05:20 AM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
Assuming the $3.5 million/year rejection is true, how many years did he reject? If we offered him a short-term deal, then it's no wonder he rejected it. I doubt he'd reject 10 years, $3.5 million/year.
opposite of that actually. if it was a 1 year at 3.5 i could see him taking it knowing he could renegotiate a big deal long term. if they only offer 35 mil for 10 years though theres no way he would take it.

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03-26-2010, 08:57 AM
  #55
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I think you are underestimating what a 10-year, $35 million offer could do. Sure, he's eventually going to be worth more than that on a per annum basis, but $35 million is $35 million. Show him some love, commit to him and make him a loooooong term offer. We don't know exactly what the points of contention are between the two sides, but sometimes it's about showing commitment towards a player. In this case, commitment would come at the expense of a more reasonable cap hit for the club. Letang's not a big guy and he plays a big man's game. Maybe security is something he's looking for. Again, we don't know the ins and outs of the negotiations.

I agree that 1 year, $3.5 million could also work for the completely opposite point of view. But if he's actually rejected $3.5 million, it's probably a 3-5 year offer.

Tender made some excellent points but the problem here is comparables aren't the end-all and be-all of negotiations. Letang is more important to this team than either Vlasic or Edler are to their's. More important in light of our current situation: only two defenders under contract for next year; Sarge on the verge of leaving; defending Cup champions. Like it or not, Letang has us over a barrel imo.

If we play hard ball and are forced to move him, we would have to completely alter our game plan. The wingers would then become more exposed and suddenly agents of UFA defenders will be calling Shero and upping the price for their clients.

Come July 1, I wouldn't mind our position with a signed Letang. We can pick and choose what defensive direction we wanna go in. Without a signed Letang, however, it could get ugly.

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03-26-2010, 09:20 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tender Rip View Post
I know, but unless I am mistaken (?), the club can still choose to take him to arbitration. As I understand the rules, the club can choose to do so at any time when a player is RFA, whereas Letang has yet to work up the NHL tenure to have that right.
It just doesn't happen very often that it is in the clubs interest to go to arbitration more so than the player.
Letang would love arbitration if the Pens chose to take him to it. He could then be a UFA after next year because he gets the choice of a one year or two year contract. I can guarantee you that the Pens will never offer Letang arbitration.

Shero has all the power right now. Letang's only recourse is to hold out. And he can only do that for so long. He would have to sign a contract by I think the beginning of November or he couldn't play the rest of the year.

Shero should offer a two year deal worth about 2.5-3.0 mil a year. Nothing more. Letang hasn't shown enough to get a longer contract or more money.

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03-26-2010, 09:23 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
I think you are underestimating what a 10-year, $35 million offer could do. Sure, he's eventually going to be worth more than that on a per annum basis, but $35 million is $35 million. Show him some love, commit to him and make him a loooooong term offer. We don't know exactly what the points of contention are between the two sides, but sometimes it's about showing commitment towards a player. In this case, commitment would come at the expense of a more reasonable cap hit for the club. Letang's not a big guy and he plays a big man's game. Maybe security is something he's looking for. Again, we don't know the ins and outs of the negotiations.
Yeah, it's 35 million but Letang is probably looking at more like 45 million in those 10 years if he plays to his potential. Just for example 4M x 4 and 5M x 6 = 46M.

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Old
03-26-2010, 10:42 AM
  #58
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We all know Orpik took a pay-cut to stay here, so...too me he should be targeting that number, and at that rate is manageable at 3.750 over any length of term. I sure hope for 3.0, but I just don't see it happening.

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03-26-2010, 10:45 AM
  #59
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Anywhere above $3M is an overpayment for Letang at this point.

He's a good skater, makes a nice first pass, good wheels - but he still makes bad decisions, especially in the offensive zone. He's just a slightly-above average top 4 d-man at this point.

On a cash-strapped team like the Pens, you can't get into the habit of overpaying for young players based on "potential".

Shero overpaid for potential with the Staal contract, but just about every other contract he's signed has been good.


Last edited by cassius: 03-26-2010 at 10:52 AM.
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03-26-2010, 11:04 AM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Anywhere above $3M is an overpayment for Letang at this point.

He's a good skater, makes a nice first pass, good wheels - but he still makes bad decisions, especially in the offensive zone. He's just a slightly-above average top 4 d-man at this point.

On a cash-strapped team like the Pens, you can't get into the habit of overpaying for young players based on "potential".

Shero overpaid for potential with the Staal contract, but just about every other contract he's signed has been good.
I worried about Staal not living up to his contract but I think he's already close to hitting the value. 20 goal 50 point forwards normally cost in the 3 million range and Staal has an elite defensive game and potential to boot.

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03-26-2010, 11:08 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Goalie_Bob View Post
Shero has all the power right now. Letang's only recourse is to hold out. And he can only do that for so long. He would have to sign a contract by I think the beginning of November or he couldn't play the rest of the year.
Chiarelli held all the power too in the Phil Kessel situation. That turned into a complete disaster that may ultimately cost him his job.

Not saying that would/could ever happen to us, but there's a whole pile of bad that could occur to this franchise if we don't play the Letang card right.

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03-26-2010, 11:09 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by cassius View Post
Anywhere above $3M is an overpayment for Letang at this point.

He's a good skater, makes a nice first pass, good wheels - but he still makes bad decisions, especially in the offensive zone. He's just a slightly-above average top 4 d-man at this point.

On a cash-strapped team like the Pens, you can't get into the habit of overpaying for young players based on "potential".

Shero overpaid for potential with the Staal contract, but just about every other contract he's signed has been good.
But when the overpayment on potential helps you win a Stanley Cup, you not only accept it but also deem it a successful signing. And I view Letang much in similar fashion.

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03-26-2010, 11:25 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Goalie_Bob View Post
Letang would love arbitration if the Pens chose to take him to it. He could then be a UFA after next year because he gets the choice of a one year or two year contract. I can guarantee you that the Pens will never offer Letang arbitration.
I sincerely believe that is incorrect. No matter if Letang was to be awarded a one or two year settlement he would remain an RFA at the end of the deal, because he has neither the NHL tenure or the age to quality for unrestricted free agency. You must either have 7 years of NHL experience or be 27 years of age to qualify.
Nikolai Zherdev will be a quasi-exception this Summer, but that is because his team walked away and because of having lost a year to the lockout.
Jordan Staal will become the youngest UFA yet in the history of the game when his current contract is out. Letang on the other hand will need to play four more seasons after this one before he can be an UFA, unless Shero walks away from an arbitration also. No matter if those are four one year contracts won through arbitration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Goalie_Bob View Post
Shero should offer a two year deal worth about 2.5-3.0 mil a year. Nothing more. Letang hasn't shown enough to get a longer contract or more money.
I agree with you on that though. At least he should try. Of course it leaves us open to that offer sheet, and in case it arrives we cannot take him to arbitration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
Tender made some excellent points but the problem here is comparables aren't the end-all and be-all of negotiations. Letang is more important to this team than either Vlasic or Edler are to their's.
That is true, but that has little bearing on the arbitration awards though which was my point. Arbitration could be a way out of that dilemma exactly.

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03-26-2010, 11:32 AM
  #64
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I got a feeling it's going to be around 3.75 a year like Orpik's. I hope he will be a +45 point player at next year if Gonch is gone.

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03-26-2010, 11:37 AM
  #65
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That's pretty much been my thought all along. 3-4 years, cap hit around $3M, $3.5 tops.

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03-26-2010, 11:42 AM
  #66
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That's pretty much been my thought all along. 3-4 years, cap hit around $3M, $3.5 tops.
I would like to see a 5 or 6 year term, why give him a chance at UFA status as soon as possible.

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03-26-2010, 12:03 PM
  #67
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3 years at 3.5

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03-26-2010, 12:38 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Tender Rip View Post
That is true, but that has little bearing on the arbitration awards though which was my point. Arbitration could be a way out of that dilemma exactly.
I guess. For me, arbitration if the first step towards the realization that said player is no longer in your long-term plans. It's like the franchise tag in the NFL. It's rarely resolved amicably and usually results in a bitter divorce, sooner or later.

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03-26-2010, 01:01 PM
  #69
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We need Letang. I'd like to Shero give him a 3yr deal worth 3mil a year.

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03-26-2010, 02:55 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Jag68Sid87 View Post
Chiarelli held all the power too in the Phil Kessel situation. That turned into a complete disaster that may ultimately cost him his job.

Not saying that would/could ever happen to us, but there's a whole pile of bad that could occur to this franchise if we don't play the Letang card right.
I think you are far underestimating what Chiarelli got back for Kessel. Taylor Hall or Seguin are the likely player for the Bruins to get in the draft from the Leafs pick this year and they got next years pick as well. Chiarelli is going to look like a genius within a year.

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03-26-2010, 03:07 PM
  #71
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Bruins are in excellent shape moving forward and adding a top 2 and 12-13 pick is going to really solidify things. Add Hall/Seguin to Rask, Savard, Krejci, Lucic, Wheeler plus Colborne eventually. Hall would be a perfect fit for that team with Savard/Krejci/Colborne down the middle.

Plus they have 19.75 coming off the books after next season (Chara, Bergeron, Ryder, Sturm) and can probably sign whatever #1 defenseman they want. Having an expensive Tim Thomas as their backup is the only hiccup.

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03-26-2010, 03:09 PM
  #72
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I would like to see a 5 or 6 year term, why give him a chance at UFA status as soon as possible.
Well that would be A-OK with me but I don't think he's going to sign long-term unless the money is a little bit higher than we all think he's worth.

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03-26-2010, 03:10 PM
  #73
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Bruins are in excellent shape moving forward and adding a top 2 and 12-13 pick is going to really solidify things. Add Hall/Seguin to Rask, Savard, Krejci, Lucic, Wheeler plus Colborne eventually. Hall would be a perfect fit for that team with Savard/Krejci/Colborne down the middle.

Plus they have 19.75 coming off the books after next season (Chara, Bergeron, Ryder, Sturm) and can probably sign whatever #1 defenseman they want. Having an expensive Tim Thomas as their backup is the only hiccup.
You dont think they'll keep Bergeron?

Imagine the draft they would have if they missed the playoffs too. Yikes.

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03-26-2010, 03:26 PM
  #74
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If the Bruins play their cards right, they'll be in superb shape for the next decade.

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03-26-2010, 03:42 PM
  #75
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Yeah, the B's might have had a hiccup this season without Kessel, but he isn't the only reason they have sucked. If they play their cards right, they will come out of that situation smelling like a rose.

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