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ST. JOHNS verses MANITOBA - GDT SAT Feb 12th

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02-13-2005, 03:16 PM
  #51
Frankie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
***************************************



Prospect was the Comparison

Style differential was actually the Point for Discussion

Style similarity was never the intention

Actual performance and results the measurement

Non acceptance the Conclusion

Sweet Justice the Reward


***************************************
a lot of other things to into judging a prospect. back to back ohl mvps would make corey locke the best prospect in the world right now.

too bad its not as easy as just looking at the scoring stats. teams could get rid of all their scouting staffs and save a lot of money.

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02-13-2005, 03:21 PM
  #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie
a lot of other things to into judging a prospect. back to back ohl mvps would make corey locke the best prospect in the world right now.

too bad its not as easy as just looking at the scoring stats. teams could get rid of all their scouting staffs and save a lot of money.
Still, Higgins has less than half the amount of points Welly has and his advantage on Wellwood is supposed to be his defensive play which in my eyes, and I'm sure many others' has improved by leaps and bounds this year.

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02-13-2005, 04:21 PM
  #53
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I don't think the purpose of Welly participating in the fastest skater competition is to necessarily win it but just to put up a solid time and prove to all the naysayers that he indeed does have NHL speed and is no slouch.

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02-13-2005, 04:57 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie
a lot of other things to into judging a prospect. back to back ohl mvps would make corey locke the best prospect in the world right now.

too bad its not as easy as just looking at the scoring stats. teams could get rid of all their scouting staffs and save a lot of money.
lots of irony in your post ..


First Corey Locke in his first year often playing a similar role that Williams for the Leafs, younger, smaller and adjusting to the AHL and seeing limited ice time is tied with Chris Higgins in the AHL this year. Is that good for Locke or bad for Higgins ??

At this stage both being AHLers still however together their AHL totals combined are below the Wonder kid Welly ?? All have not made the NHL which is the goal .. but since we don't have a Crystal Ball we will have to wait to judge that .. but as AHLERS I think the point is made ..

Second the Entry Draft by nature is a huge crap shoot with a very high failure rate .. You some times have to wonder what these scouts are doing in fact ... that a person with the Central Scouting Bureau list in front of him and a casual fan can do from his own couch that it took a scout to do ...

Among the Top leaf prospects are Kyle Wellwood (5th round 134 overall) & White (6th round 191 overall) and Jeremy Williams (7th round 220) , Now Welly lead the OHL in his draft year in scoring .. Ian White was the 32 goals and 79 points to lead all WHL dmen in scoring and Williams had 41 goals 98 points good for 7th in the DUB ..

Now scouting with all their travel and personal viewings and scouting were selecting John Doherty, Konstantin Volkov,David Turon, Nicolas Corbeil etc etc, ...not to mention the skill it must have taken in Luca Cerada, Kris Venarsky, etc etc with high picks ...

Now if I had nothing but the CHL scoring stats in front of me I could have done what the Leafs did .. I would have taken them higher based on their performances but what would really have been the difference ..

I firmly believe that these scouts often are so brainwashed looking for the prototypical NHL prospect that they refuse to look at results ..

Who would you rather have in the Leafs organization ??.

Welly or Harrison, Corbiel, Pilar etc??
White or Ford, D'Amour, Turon ..
Williams and Mitchell or Doherty, Volkov or Sagat ??

So when you actually take a step back and look at what is happening, it tells a very different picture ..IMO

Now I could understand if they are uncovering players that where not highly regarded and make them sleeper picks taking them late but taking the highest scoring kids in Junior Hockey and drafting them lower ..

Well that begs a different question as to what scouts are really doing.


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02-13-2005, 06:07 PM
  #55
VanW27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger

Welly or Harrison, Corbiel, Pilar etc??

.
To be fair Pilar is a pick that is a little different he was drafted to make an immediate impact and he did that and i still feel he could be a top 4 defenseman. He has already shown he is to good for the AHL i can't see how u can be dissapointed with what he has done.

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02-13-2005, 06:19 PM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Messenger
lots of irony in your post ..


First Corey Locke in his first year often playing a similar role that Williams for the Leafs, younger, smaller and adjusting to the AHL and seeing limited ice time is tied with Chris Higgins in the AHL this year. Is that good for Locke or bad for Higgins ??

At this stage both being AHLers still however together their AHL totals combined are below the Wonder kid Welly ?? All have not made the NHL which is the goal .. but since we don't have a Crystal Ball we will have to wait to judge that .. but as AHLERS I think the point is made ..

Second the Entry Draft by nature is a huge crap shoot with a very high failure rate .. You some times have to wonder what these scouts are doing in fact ... that a person with the Central Scouting Bureau list in front of him and a casual fan can do from his own couch that it took a scout to do ...

Among the Top leaf prospects are Kyle Wellwood (5th round 134 overall) & White (6th round 191 overall) and Jeremy Williams (7th round 220) , Now Welly lead the OHL in his draft year in scoring .. Ian White was the 32 goals and 79 points to lead all WHL dmen in scoring and Williams had 41 goals 98 points good for 7th in the DUB ..

Now scouting with all their travel and personal viewings and scouting were selecting John Doherty, Konstantin Volkov,David Turon, Nicolas Corbeil etc etc, ...not to mention the skill it must have taken in Luca Cerada, Kris Venarsky, etc etc with high picks ...

Now if I had nothing but the CHL scoring stats in front of me I could have done what the Leafs did .. I would have taken them higher based on their performances but what would really have been the difference ..

I firmly believe that these scouts often are so brainwashed looking for the prototypical NHL prospect that they refuse to look at results ..

Who would you rather have in the Leafs organization ??.

Welly or Harrison, Corbiel, Pilar etc??
White or Ford, D'Amour, Turon ..
Williams and Mitchell or Doherty, Volkov or Sagat ??

So when you actually take a step back and look at what is happening, it tells a very different picture ..IMO

Now I could understand if they are uncovering players that where not highly regarded and make them sleeper picks taking them late but taking the highest scoring kids in Junior Hockey and drafting them lower ..

Well that begs a different question as to what scouts are really doing.
so you would have taken corey locke first overall in the 2003 draft?

i don't totally disagree with what you're saying. maybe scouts should spend less time looking to see how fast a guy can skate or how big he is and more time looking at what he actually does on the ice. but, the reality is that they don't do that. speed, size, strength, defensive play, etc. all come into play so saying that higgins is a better prospect then wellwood is not unreasonable.

maybe nhl teams are just wasting time and money with scouting staffs. just look at the stats and draft in order from there.

i also think there were not many people who didn't think welly, white, and willy would be very good ahlers. welly is proving it now, and white and willy will get better and become very good minor leaguers. there wasn't much doubt about that when they were drafted. so i don't think they have done much yet that people didn't expect from them. i'd hold off on the i told you so speech to these enemies of yours.

chris higgins? i've seen him play a few times and i've never noticed him. but he's a first rounder and the habs seem to like him so he'll probably play in the nhl. but maybe he's matt higgins all over again for the habs.

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02-13-2005, 06:19 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanwychen27
To be fair Pilar is a pick that is a little different he was drafted to make an immediate impact and he did that and i still feel he could be a top 4 defenseman. He has already shown he is to good for the AHL i can't see how u can be dissapointed with what he has done.
That actually supports the case as an older draft pick ..much easier job for scouts to project what kind of player you will be at 24 when you are drafted at 23 .. he has made a little bit of an impact .. however he was drafted before Welly and if you had to pick one player right now .. Who do you take ??

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02-13-2005, 06:37 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Frankie
so you would have taken corey locke first overall in the 2003 draft?

i don't totally disagree with what you're saying. maybe scouts should spend less time looking to see how fast a guy can skate or how big he is and more time looking at what he actually does on the ice. but, the reality is that they don't do that. speed, size, strength, defensive play, etc. all come into play so saying that higgins is a better prospect then wellwood is not unreasonable.

maybe nhl teams are just wasting time and money with scouting staffs. just look at the stats and draft in order from there.

i also think there were not many people who didn't think welly, white, and willy would be very good ahlers. welly is proving it now, and white and willy will get better and become very good minor leaguers. there wasn't much doubt about that when they were drafted. so i don't think they have done much yet that people didn't expect from them. i'd hold off on the i told you so speech to these enemies of yours.

chris higgins? i've seen him play a few times and i've never noticed him. but he's a first rounder and the habs seem to like him so he'll probably play in the nhl. but maybe he's matt higgins all over again for the habs.
I guess that is the point .. very good minor leaguers have an opportunity to become NHLers .. very bad ones sure do not ..

I have seen Higgins 4 times and like you he has been barely noticeable .. but he has the safe label because he is well rounded but is only average as an AHLer to date so does that reflect negatively on his NHL future ..Who knows ..

When you have a players even like Williams or Locke that have been adjusting to the AHL and seeing limited ice time and among the youngest players in the AHL this year .. Would you be expecting that they are producing simiar results to a player that plays top line and top PP etc like Higgins does ..

To me something is out of wack .. I do know of many AHLers that record 30-40 points in the AHL and then go on become top line NHLers and top 6 forwards ..

I find it interesting to follow this stories and see what happens ..

Look no further than Leafs own team .. Matty Stajan very similar style to Higgins is considered safer NHLers .. but even you said it once that Welly is a millions times the player Stajan is .. While I will never hold the number against you it makes a point as to how much more offensively gifted Welly is .. and then if people say one player is better 2 way and then look at teammates and see Welly at a team leading +16 and Stajan a +4 .. We both know that Welly's line often goes head to head with the top scoring line on the other team, so that stat is even more telling ..

What makes Stajan a better Hockey player then Welly?

Certainly not their on ice performance ... Welly left Matty in the dust in the OHL stats wise and Stajan is not capable of doing many of the things that Welly does at the AHL level .. Even in Shootouts in the AHL .. Shedden doesn't even use Stajan the NHLer .. but relies on Welly and Ling as his secret weapons ..and often tosses in Druken, Leeb and my boy Williams. Are these not all signs .. If Matty did not play in the NHL last year and was in the AHL with Welly would anyone say that Stajan deserves the NHL job should one open up ??

So how do we know what this all means in the future for all these players .. We know it all depends on opportunity but as my example showed above, prototypical players drafted higher are not necessarily the most successful ..

This really is not about gloating and surprisingly everyone always takes it that way .. The challenge is to to able to see the possibility exists that a young player has a future .. Once a player has made the NHL and been successful the whole process of defining a prospect is over .. I look at this from a stand point of being able to predict who might make it based on their perfromance and not Height and skating speed only, while I will admit that they are factors.. I don't hope Higgins does not make it, I hope Welly does ..and the comparison is intended try and measure a prospect future .. before its happened ..


Last edited by Mess: 02-13-2005 at 07:19 PM.
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