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Will Osgood be here next year??

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Old
04-05-2010, 04:25 PM
  #51
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Originally Posted by MrSandMan View Post
By that logic, Howard shouldn't start in the playoffs either - Maybe Holland should call up McCollum or Larsson to get the playoff start?

Nashville vs Detroit - Jimmy Howard / 24 SA / 4 GA / 20 -Saves / .833 SV%

Howard was even worse than Osgood against a team with WORSE offense than the Flyers.... not to mention he was on home ice with a fresh team in front of him. Oh, and he wasn't the cold goalie coming in.

Osgood was rusty and got better as the game went on. Wings are locked for the playoffs. I say start getting Osgood ready for another long run.
You mean Osgood got better as the game went on and the Wings only gave up 5 shots in the 3rd period? Fancy that.

Keep in mind the Wings are in the playoffs because Howard got them points in 12 straight games, a streak that is still alive for him and which includes a 7 game win streak, a total of 10-0-2, a .925 save % and a 1.97 goals against.

Osgood, on the other hand, hasn't allowed 2 goals or fewer in a start since December 12th. His save %s in his last 5 starts were .727, .870, .800, .833, and .840. So before you try the "well, he's just rusty and needs a chance to get himself ready" argument, every time Babcock has given him a chance to get in the game he has shat the bed, and he hasn't given Babcock the opportunity to start him again.

If guys like Curtis McElhinney can rot on the bench for three years and then come in cold and light it up for a 5-0-1 record, then a guy like Osgood can't use "rust" as an excuse and guys like you shouldn't use it for him either.

If you were to ask Mike Babcock off the record if he is planning on using Osgood in the playoffs, he would tell you something along the lines of "god, I hope not", or "if it comes to that we're screwed." There's no way he could have any faith in him after the season he has had.

Howard is the guy, and they're going to sink or swim with him unless he goes out there and completely embarrasses himself in the playoffs or gets injured. And that's also the case whether folks like you like it or not.

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04-05-2010, 04:46 PM
  #52
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So you are telling us what's going on inside Mike Babcock's mind - in regards to off the record questions? Love it!

I'm almost tempted to search through some of your past posts to see what you had to say last year when Conklin was outperforming Osgood in the regular season, then Babcock started Osgood (and took this team to the finals). You probably said Ozzie was lucky, and then go on to tell us what Mike Babcock really thought 'off the record'. Lol.

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04-05-2010, 05:02 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by MrSandMan View Post
So you are telling us what's going on inside Mike Babcock's mind - in regards to off the record questions? Love it!

I'm almost tempted to search through some of your past posts to see what you had to say last year when Conklin was outperforming Osgood in the regular season, then Babcock started Osgood (and took this team to the finals). You probably said Ozzie was lucky, and then go on to tell us what Mike Babcock really thought 'off the record'. Lol.
He won't say it on the record because he doesn't want to flame Ozzie that way, but anyone who thinks they will be quick to turn to Ozzie in the playoffs is either a ridiculous Ozzie homer or just plain incredibly stupid. I'm sure even Ozzie would tell you he doesn't expect to get in there unless disaster strikes.

This is not comparable to Conklin and last season. Ozzie actually played pretty well down the stretch at the end of last season and Babcock would certainly have felt better starting him than Conklin, whose last playoff action involved scoring on his own net. If Conklin had started 25 games in a row and been playing 9 great games for every one off night and Ozzie hadn't had a good game in 5 months, Conklin probably starts the playoffs in net last season.

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure this stuff out, man.

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04-05-2010, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by MrSandMan View Post
By that logic, Howard shouldn't start in the playoffs either - Maybe Holland should call up McCollum or Larsson to get the playoff start?

Nashville vs Detroit - Jimmy Howard / 24 SA / 4 GA / 20 -Saves / .833 SV%

Howard was even worse than Osgood against a team with WORSE offense than the Flyers.... not to mention he was on home ice with a fresh team in front of him. Oh, and he wasn't the cold goalie coming in.

Osgood was rusty and got better as the game went on. Wings are locked for the playoffs. I say start getting Osgood ready for another long run.
I'm a huge Osgood supporter but you have to back it down some. So you are ready to take a chance that Osgood is going put on a show again or go with the guy who held this sinking ship afloat when it looked very bad.

Hey if Howard plays bad I'm all for putting Osgood in, but I can't justify starting Osgood right now.


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04-05-2010, 05:53 PM
  #55
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Can't they bury him in the AHL ?

.888 SV% is absolutely pathetic.

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04-05-2010, 06:04 PM
  #56
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Can't they bury him in the AHL ?

.888 SV% is absolutely pathetic.
Not likely. And why? They need to have 2 goalies.

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04-05-2010, 06:36 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I don't think you'll find a whole lot of people that share that perception that Osgood can be a viable NHL starter.
I don't expect to... and certainly not here of all places.

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We also don't know that he's still capable of being lights-out in the playoffs, and neither do any of those East teams that would be in the market for a goalie.
We don't know if the wheels are going to fall off Howard tomorrow, either.

Look, someday you'll be right. Eventually, Osgood will be done, that's the nature of things. I just think he has a season or perhaps two left in him to be a decent starter, and I think there is next to no chance that he'll be anything but a hugely disappointing backup. He's just not wired that way.

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04-05-2010, 10:01 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
We don't know if the wheels are going to fall off Howard tomorrow, either.
At least his wheels are currently on. We can't say that about Osgood.

I don't feel great about going into the playoffs with a rookie goalie, but Howard looks like a big-game goalie to me and frankly I'd like to find out. It's going to take a great goaltending effort to get them the Cup this year and if they come up short, at the very least they will have gotten a playoff under Howard's belt for next season.

And like I said before, rookie goalies get hot and carry teams to the Finals all the time. Howard is just as good a bet as any to do it this year.

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Look, someday you'll be right. Eventually, Osgood will be done, that's the nature of things. I just think he has a season or perhaps two left in him to be a decent starter, and I think there is next to no chance that he'll be anything but a hugely disappointing backup. He's just not wired that way.
I just don't see how you can say he has a season or two left given his play this season. He had one three-game stretch way back in November when he was on his game, and in all the time before and after he hasn't been able to string 2 solid games together.

That's what Dom looked like his last season here.

Unless you're suggesting ... that he just needs to play some NHL games before they can tell if he's a viable NHL starter. But we know you'd never say that.

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04-05-2010, 10:20 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I don't feel great about going into the playoffs with a rookie goalie, but Howard looks like a big-game goalie to me
I'm curious... why do you think this?

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And like I said before, rookie goalies get hot and carry teams to the Finals all the time. Howard is just as good a bet as any to do it this year.
'All the time'? Seriously? It's happened like 5 or so times in the past 20 years, at most.

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I just don't see how you can say he has a season or two left given his play this season.
Well, he's played better this year than he did last year, and he had a phenomenal playoff run last year. I just can't quite believe that someone can play that well in two straight playoffs and be totally useless in the regular season and/or be done as an NHL goaltender.

Sure, it's not completely impossible for a guy to go from good to irrelevant that quickly, but it's not incredibly likely, either.

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He had one three-game stretch way back in November when he was on his game, and in all the time before and after he hasn't been able to string 2 solid games together.
It probably didn't help that in order to string two solid games together they would have had to have been two starts two weeks apart.

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That's what Dom looked like his last season here.

Unless you're suggesting ... that he just needs to play some NHL games before they can tell if he's a viable NHL starter. But we know you'd never say that.
I've said it a bunch of times. Osgood, specifically, is not the kind of guy that plays well getting spot starts. He just doesn't seem to be wired that way. He's a 'momentum' goalie. When it's going well for him, it goes well for him for a decent stretch. If he can't get on the ice enough to get it going well for him... boom. Obviously that's quite a bit different than your position concerning AHL players who all need to get opportunities on an NHL club before any assessments can be made about their games.

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04-05-2010, 11:30 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
I've said it a bunch of times. Osgood, specifically, is not the kind of guy that plays well getting spot starts. He just doesn't seem to be wired that way. He's a 'momentum' goalie. When it's going well for him, it goes well for him for a decent stretch. If he can't get on the ice enough to get it going well for him... boom.
I think that really presents a big problem for next year. Osgood will presumably be looked at to play the same amount of games he was expected to play this year, but if he continues to poop the bed in the regular season it becomes impossible to play him enough to get into his groove unless the team is strong enough to withstand it.

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04-05-2010, 11:31 PM
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I think that really presents a big problem for next year. Osgood will presumably be looked at to play the same amount of games he was expected to play this year, but if he continues to poop the bed in the regular season it becomes impossible to play him enough to get into his groove unless the team is strong enough to withstand it.
I personally think as long as he plays a game every few weeks he should be fine.

Maybe not, though.

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04-05-2010, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Doc Holliday View Post
I personally think as long as he plays a game every few weeks he should be fine.

Maybe not, though.
Based on the impression of the people who agree with HiHD Osgood needs to play a game or two a week or he cannot play anywhere near his level.

No one knows if Howard will be this good next year, but let's say he is, if Osgood is incapable of being a backup... What does Holland do?

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04-06-2010, 12:16 AM
  #63
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My one feeling about Howard is that he seems to play better the more hes challenged. Sure he hasn't started for the Wings in the playoffs, but before this year he never had an extended time with the Wings to get more than 10 starts. He has carried the Wings into the playoffs and he has done nothing to deserve being yanked from the starter position going into the playoffs. Yes, if he fails and starts letting in bad goals in 1st & 2nd games of the series, I wouldn't oppose Babcock switching to Osgood, but Osgood does need a few more starts in the final 3 games to get ready in case.

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04-06-2010, 12:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heaton View Post
Based on the impression of the people who agree with HiHD Osgood needs to play a game or two a week or he cannot play anywhere near his level.

No one knows if Howard will be this good next year, but let's say he is, if Osgood is incapable of being a backup... What does Holland do?
well, if this year's any indicator, there'll be at least one or two decent goalies available on the free market well into the season (Manny Fernandez never signed with anyone...which is amazing considering the goaltending of a team like Philly or Chicago. Was the guy hurt or something?). Other than that just bring up Larsson and let him run with the backup role.

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04-06-2010, 02:18 AM
  #65
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with the wings still chasing the 5th seed and a matchup vs an inexperienced team as opposed to one of the west favs in the nucks, is there any way howard doesnt start the remaining 3 games to try and get that 5th seed?

i had read that ozzie was supposed to get 2 of the final 4 games, but id imagine the wings would want their best shot at the 5th seed and let howard play the last 3...

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04-06-2010, 07:28 AM
  #66
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You don't want to play that game. For every sophomore slump I can dig out a goalie who impressed season 1 and continued to impress season 2. Need an example? Ryan Miller.
'Impressed'? Miller's stats, particularly save percentage, slipped for his first three full time NHL seasons after he waged a protracted battle (3 years) for the starters job with Martin Biron... which, by the way, he just barely won. And it's not like Miller's first NHL season was anything approaching impressive, since the team didn't even bring him up the following season except for 3 spot starts.

This year he's been fantastic. Last year he was very, very good. His first three years were far from dominant and not nearly as impressive as what Howard has done this season.

That's really one of the more startling things about Howard's unexpected performance this year. His career development path was set up to be almost identical to Miller's, yet he was significantly behind Miller in terms of performance every step of the way... and then BAM! He goes nuts and tears up the NHL in year 1 while it took Miller four or five years to wind his game up to that level.

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04-06-2010, 07:37 AM
  #67
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I think that really presents a big problem for next year.
It's a huge problem, IMO. That's why I think it is imperative Holland trades him this offseason.

The thing is, Holland could not have possibly expected Howard to do as well as he has. If Holland (or anybody with any pull in the Wings organization) thought Howard had this kind of game there's no way they leave him in the AHL. I mean, 'Gee, we know Howard's going to be a lights-out NHL goalie who will be top 5 across the board in NHL stats at his position, but we're going to leave him in the AHL so we can sign... Ty Conklin?"

Yeah, that didn't happen. Howard's taken them by surprise.

So, I have to think that what may keep Osgood in Detroit is that Holland might just think Howard's play this year is not exactly something he can depend on, and that the possibility of the wheels coming off his game is high enough to risk having Osgood be ineffectual in 10-20 starts just so he can have him around in case he needs to lean on him for 40+ instead.

That's the only thing I can see making any sense as far as keeping Osgood around goes.

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04-06-2010, 10:27 AM
  #68
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I'm curious... why do you think this?
I've had that hunch about Howard since I saw that 50-something save NCAA title game he had where he was the only guy on his team that came to play and he was flat-out sensational.

More recently, I thought he stepped up big-time in that 46-save Pittsburgh game in January, I thought he dialed it up well in that 0-0 11 round shootout win against Nashville (a game that could have been the key to passing the Preds in the standings if they hadn't blown their games in hand by wasting one on Ozzie), the 51-save win against the Kings and the 31-of-32-save game against the Sharks back to back.

Those games were all high-pressure games against playoff teams, all but the Preds having high-powered offenses that peppered him with quality shots. Most of them came with Meech and Janik representing 1/3 of the defense corps. And against the Pens and Sharks on the season, he's 3-0-2 with a 1.35 GAA and a .958 SV%.

Both those losses were in shootouts where the Wings' shooters scored a total of zero goals, and there's no shootouts in the playoffs. In actual regulation play, he has been flat-out terrific against the best teams he's played against. I would like to have a game against the Caps to reference but Ozzie started that one. And lost.

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'All the time'? Seriously? It's happened like 5 or so times in the past 20 years, at most.
I counted 6 in the earlier post I made, and I didn't do an exhaustive search. I'm sure there are more.

My point still stands unchallenged - there's no hard correlation between experience and playoff success for goalies. Literally any goalie can get hot and carry a team through a few rounds. And Howard is the much more likely Wings' goalie candidate to get hot.

Ozzie's got icicles hanging off his nose. Dude's freezing. You can argue that he's only freezing because he hasn't played (I would argue that it's very possible he's just not capable anymore but we don't really know), but it doesn't matter at this point. Chances of him heating up are close to zero, and Howard is already warm.

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Well, he's played better this year than he did last year, and he had a phenomenal playoff run last year. I just can't quite believe that someone can play that well in two straight playoffs and be totally useless in the regular season and/or be done as an NHL goaltender.
He put together a good stretch last March that proved to Babcock that he was getting in gear. Last year, when he went stretches without playing, he would come back and put in a solid performance his first game back. 2 weeks off and then 30 of 31 stops against the Kings in February. A week off and 30 of 32 stops against the Blues. 10 days off and 20 of 23 stops in an OTL against the Jackets. 3 weeks off and then 33 of 35 stops plus all three shooters in a shootout win against Minnesota.

This year? 3 weeks off and 8 of 11 stops in relief against the Isles. A week later, 20 of 23 in a 3rd period collapse against the Caps. 8 days later, 5 goals on 25 shots against Minnesota. That was the one that finally tore it with Babcock.

Rust is a new occurrence for Ozzie, and it's a really bad sign IMO. If you don't get rusty at 36 and you do get rusty at 37, it's quite possible you're not rusty at all, you're just 37 years old and not as sharp as you used to be.

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Sure, it's not completely impossible for a guy to go from good to irrelevant that quickly, but it's not incredibly likely, either.
Happens all the time, especially with goalies. Jim Carey. Roman Cechmanek. Brian Boucher. Patrick Lalime. Jose Theodore. Martin Biron. Nikolai Khabibulin. Ray Emery. Manny Legace. Roman Turek. It's too early to tell, but Tim Thomas and Steve Mason might be on this list before too long after their dropoffs from last season to this season. The list goes on and on.

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I've said it a bunch of times. Osgood, specifically, is not the kind of guy that plays well getting spot starts. He just doesn't seem to be wired that way. He's a 'momentum' goalie. When it's going well for him, it goes well for him for a decent stretch. If he can't get on the ice enough to get it going well for him... boom. Obviously that's quite a bit different than your position concerning AHL players who all need to get opportunities on an NHL club before any assessments can be made about their games.
Let's not pretend that he was all that great when he was getting regular work - as I said, he won his 2nd and 3rd starts of the season and then 3 in a row in early November, and otherwise hasn't put two good starts together the rest of the season even when he was starting 3 times a week and had "momentum". How can anyone have confidence in him after a season like this?

He didn't have this trouble making spot starts last season.

It's entirely possible that his playoff runs have been the exception and not the rule, and that his everyday play is declining rapidly. It's impossible to tell for sure without handing him the reins and seeing what happens, and they're not going to risk that heading into the playoffs with Howard playing so well the past 4-5 months.

I'm not an Ozzie hater. I was one of the first people to defend him last year when everyone said he was washed up. The difference between now and then is that last year he gave them a glimmer that there was still a decent goalie in there despite the struggles, and they had no choice but to start him in the playoffs because Conklin was not a #1 goalie and everyone knew it. This year Ozzie has shown them absolutely nothing, and Howard has been a top 5 goaltender.

There is value in having Ozzie there backing up in case of catastrophe, but Howard is the guy and he's earned it all season. Going into the playoffs with a short leash is the worst thing you can do to a young goalie's confidence, and that's the one thing the Wings can't afford to lose right now.


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04-06-2010, 12:46 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post

(a game that could have been the key to passing the Preds in the standings if they hadn't blown their games in hand by wasting one on Ozzie)
[...]
I'm not an Ozzie hater.
Lol. Yet you refuse to acknowledge that Howard failed against Nashville Preds by allowing 4 goals on 24 shots (.833 SV%).

-Wings team in front of him were fresh
-Preds are a less offensive team than the Flyers
-Howard isn't the cold goalie coming in, so he 'should' outplay Osgood, but didn't-

Osgood's game against the more offensive Flyers team was slightly better than Howard's "big game" failure. Osgood had no help in front of him. His team in front of him were on the 2nd side of a B2B.

Then you say [Babcock] "blown their games in hand by wasting one on Ozzie" Hahaha! Like Howard would have won that game? Seriously? More of your almighty intuitive predictions? Love it!

It's very clear you hate Osgood.

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04-06-2010, 01:17 PM
  #70
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Lol. Yet you refuse to acknowledge that Howard failed against Nashville Preds by allowing 4 goals on 24 shots (.833 SV%).

-Wings team in front of him were fresh
-Preds are a less offensive team than the Flyers
-Howard isn't the cold goalie coming in, so he 'should' outplay Osgood, but didn't-

Osgood's game against the more offensive Flyers team was slightly better than Howard's "big game" failure. Osgood had no help in front of him. His team in front of him were on the 2nd side of a B2B.

Then you say [Babcock] "blown their games in hand by wasting one on Ozzie" Hahaha! Like Howard would have won that game? Seriously? More of your almighty intuitive predictions? Love it!

It's very clear you hate Osgood.


For every off night Howard has had, he's had 9 good nights.

Osgood hasn't won a game since December 12th.

Church it up however you want, Ozzie is lousy right now and Howard is very good. Those are averages - Ozzie has ranged from pretty bad to vomit-inducing, and Howard has ranged from outstanding to the occasional average or below-average start - VERY occasional.

Anyone defending Ozzie over Howard at this point is not in touch with reality.

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04-06-2010, 01:27 PM
  #71
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Based on the impression of the people who agree with HiHD Osgood needs to play a game or two a week or he cannot play anywhere near his level.

No one knows if Howard will be this good next year, but let's say he is, if Osgood is incapable of being a backup... What does Holland do?
Holland invited Cloutier to camp this year just in case Howard pooped the bed and wasn't ready to be Ozzie's backup. If I were Holland, I'd find someone like that - a UFA veteran goalie who could play 10 or 15 games if needed. Invite said goalie to camp and see what Ozzie does.

Ozzie fans won't hear it, but the truth is that he's been so horrible over the past two regular seasons (outside of a few weeks during March 2009 and a week in November) that he simply can't be relied upon to start. Not even spot starts. Osgood looks done. It would be irresponsible, then, to go into training camp without any competition for the backup job.

Now, assuming Ozzie does OK in camp and the preseason and starts the season on the roster, there are two options if he falters. One is to find a still-unsigned UFA, and the other of course is to bring someone in via trade. Carrying him on the roster all season with him in a funk, as he was this year, won't be an option. Howard will need a legit backup, someone that Babcock isn't afraid to throw into a game every now and then.

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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Rust is a new occurrence for Ozzie, and it's a really bad sign IMO. If you don't get rusty at 36 and you do get rusty at 37, it's quite possible you're not rusty at all, you're just 37 years old and not as sharp as you used to be.

Happens all the time, especially with goalies. Jim Carey. Roman Cechmanek. Brian Boucher. Patrick Lalime. Jose Theodore. Martin Biron. Nikolai Khabibulin. Ray Emery. Manny Legace. Roman Turek. It's too early to tell, but Tim Thomas and Steve Mason might be on this list before too long after their dropoffs from last season to this season. The list goes on and on.

Let's not pretend that he was all that great when he was getting regular work - as I said, he won his 2nd and 3rd starts of the season and then 3 in a row in early November, and otherwise hasn't put two good starts together the rest of the season even when he was starting 3 times a week and had "momentum". How can anyone have confidence in him after a season like this?

He didn't have this trouble making spot starts last season.

It's entirely possible that his playoff runs have been the exception and not the rule, and that his everyday play is declining rapidly. It's impossible to tell for sure without handing him the reins and seeing what happens, and they're not going to risk that heading into the playoffs with Howard playing so well the past 4-5 months.
First, really great post. I agree with all of your main points. Howard has an impressive history of stepping up in big games, as you noted. He also ratcheted things up when he was in the U-18 tournament for team USA. Secondly, yup - there are tons of examples of rookie goalies doing well in the playoffs. If Howard is a big game goalie he should flourish.

However, I wanted to connect a couple of dots in your post. You pointed out Ozzie's age, along with examples of goalies that went from good to quite bad overnight. IMO, your list doesn't do enough to point out that Ozzie's age and his recent failures are likely not unrelated. He's not like Carey or Boucher. The wheels came off them while they were in their "prime" years. Ozzie is old. It is far more likely, then, that he's simply deteriorated because of his age. He's on the downside.

If that assumption is correct, then it furthers the argument that Ozzie's last two playoff runs were an aberration. Perhaps he was able to reach deep within and come up with some good games... but now that well has gone dry. I've been saying this since Ozzie first appeared cooked, in the second half of the 2007-08 season. He's been in a steady (and to me, obvious) decline since that time. Given his age and the fact that he was never an elite goalie, it shouldn't be a surprise. Maltby isn't an NHL caliber forward anymore. Draper probably isn't, either. Likewise, Ozzie has dropped down below the threshold... or at least I feel he has.

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04-06-2010, 01:56 PM
  #72
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I've had that hunch about Howard
A hunch based on a title game he lost and 3 or 4 regular season games.

Okay.

Quote:
I counted 6 in the earlier post I made, and I didn't do an exhaustive search. I'm sure there are more.

My point still stands unchallenged - there's no hard correlation between experience and playoff success for goalies.
What's a 'hard correlation'? If you are waiting for something with 100% certainty to come down the pipe before you allow your point to be 'challenged', well...

Look, I suppose their isn't a 'hard correlation' between a team with more points doing better in the playoffs than a team with fewer points, but it happens that way more often than not. It's also a bit germain to note the general quality of the players doing that goaltending as rookies.

Quote:
Literally any goalie can get hot and carry a team through a few rounds.
And it was always possible for Joe Kocur to score a couple big playoff goals. 'Possible' and 'can' isn't the same thing as 'probably' or 'likely' or 'more often than not'.

Quote:
Rust is a new occurrence for Ozzie, and it's a really bad sign IMO.
But that's the point, it's really not a new occurrence. Even in your cherry picked series of games a number of those efforts were mediocre.

Quote:
Happens all the time, especially with goalies.
No, not really. Most of the guys you noted weren't as good, nor were they as good for as long. Any guy can have a solid season or two and then fade. That's what a lot of the guys you mentioned did. Osgood was a decent to good goaltender for years and years and years, not some flash in the pan like Jim Carey.

Quote:
Let's not pretend that he was all that great when he was getting regular work - as I said, he won his 2nd and 3rd starts of the season and then 3 in a row in early November, and otherwise hasn't put two good starts together the rest of the season even when he was starting 3 times a week and had "momentum".
Now you're just being silly. The last time Osgood had three starts in a 7 day span the Wings scored 1, 1, and 0 goals for him. I'm sure losing those games was Osgood's fault.

Just to set the record straight, Osgood has started 20 games this year. He has gotten 43 goals of regulation offensive support in those games. Combined.

Golly, a goalie might have a bad w-l record when he's getting an average of 2.1ish goals a game in offensive support? Jimmy Howard has played great all year and he's lost 17 of 21 games when Detroit doesn't score more than 2 goals for him.

Quote:
There is value in having Ozzie there backing up in case of catastrophe, but Howard is the guy and he's earned it all season. Going into the playoffs with a short leash is the worst thing you can do to a young goalie's confidence, and that's the one thing the Wings can't afford to lose right now.


Who is saying 'short leash'? Obviously Howard's going to get the playoff starts, barring some disaster.

The thing is, just like other NHL rookie goalies, it's next to impossible to predict how they will handle the added pressure of the NHL postseason, or if they are even able to. With veterans you tend to at least have at least something of a historical base to provide some insight into how they will do.

For instance, we can be reasonably sure that Nabokov is going to spit the bit at some point in the playoffs. We can be reasonably sure of this because he's done it every playoff year. It's not a bibilcal certainty, but it's a trend worth noticing. With Howard, or with other rookie goalies, you just don't know. So, while Howard has been great this year, Detroit enters the playoffs with just as much of a question mark there for him as they had to start the season, unfortunately.

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04-06-2010, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
Howard has an impressive history of stepping up in big games, as you noted.


Yes, what a litany of 'big games'.

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If that assumption is correct, then it furthers the argument that Ozzie's last two playoff runs were an aberration.
He was good in 2006-7, but got hurt.
He was very good in 2007-8, and was fantastic in the playoffs.
He was terrible in 2008-9, but was fantastic in the playoffs.
He was bad in 2009-10...

What you are saying, DJ, is that How Osgood did in the 69 regular season games he played in 2009 and 2010 is more indicative of where he is career wise than the 42 playoff games he played in 2008 and 2009, not to mention the 43 games he played in 2008.

That seems a bit... presumptive.

Quote:
Perhaps he was able to reach deep within and come up with some good games... but now that well has gone dry. I've been saying this since Ozzie first appeared cooked, in the second half of the 2007-08 season. He's been in a steady (and to me, obvious) decline since that time.
On the plus side, someday you'll actually be right about that.

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04-06-2010, 03:17 PM
  #74
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Originally Posted by doublejack View Post
However, I wanted to connect a couple of dots in your post. You pointed out Ozzie's age, along with examples of goalies that went from good to quite bad overnight. IMO, your list doesn't do enough to point out that Ozzie's age and his recent failures are likely not unrelated. He's not like Carey or Boucher. The wheels came off them while they were in their "prime" years. Ozzie is old. It is far more likely, then, that he's simply deteriorated because of his age. He's on the downside.
I figured I wouldn't make too big a deal of the age thing specifically because there are so many examples of goalies his age playing well. I wanted to focus on the fact that any goalie can go from stud to mud in a short amount of time, regardless of age.

You're right though, the age factor is one more thing that's working against him.

Quote:
Maltby isn't an NHL caliber forward anymore. Draper probably isn't, either. Likewise, Ozzie has dropped down below the threshold... or at least I feel he has.
I'd say that Maltby, Draper, and Ozzie are all in pretty much the same boat - below-average players that are fill-ins on a good team and not fit to be depended upon heavily. Maybe we're wrong about Ozzie and he just needs a month to get his game together, but it's too late for that to happen now. That month will have to be September. It's Howard's show for as long as he can keep them on the air.

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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
A hunch based on a title game he lost and 3 or 4 regular season games.

Okay.
It's a hunch based on the evidence currently at hand. I'm interested to see if it's correct, and we'll get our first chance to see him under playoff pressure in a couple weeks. Normally you wouldn't want that kind of risk heading into the playoffs, but this has not been a normal season and the Wings don't have a viable alternative.

Quote:
What's a 'hard correlation'? If you are waiting for something with 100% certainty to come down the pipe before you allow your point to be 'challenged', well...

Look, I suppose their isn't a 'hard correlation' between a team with more points doing better in the playoffs than a team with fewer points, but it happens that way more often than not. It's also a bit germain to note the general quality of the players doing that goaltending as rookies.
I figured you could find some goalies that were bad their first few playoffs and then got better, just as I found some rookies that were great from the start. I didn't want to leave you that room for false comparisons, because we've had enough of these discussions in the past and I know where you're headed next.

The point is that there's no magic formula when it comes to goalies and playoff experience, so going with the veteran who's rusted to the bench is not a better option than going with the rookie that has carried you to the playoffs on his back.

Quote:
And it was always possible for Joe Kocur to score a couple big playoff goals. 'Possible' and 'can' isn't the same thing as 'probably' or 'likely' or 'more often than not'.
It's more likely that the guy who's playing well will continue playing well, and the guy who's been ice cold for 5 months will not thaw and catch fire overnight. Not rocket science.

Quote:
Now you're just being silly. The last time Osgood had three starts in a 7 day span the Wings scored 1, 1, and 0 goals for him. I'm sure losing those games was Osgood's fault.

Just to set the record straight, Osgood has started 20 games this year. He has gotten 43 goals of regulation offensive support in those games. Combined.

Golly, a goalie might have a bad w-l record when he's getting an average of 2.1ish goals a game in offensive support? Jimmy Howard has played great all year and he's lost 17 of 21 games when Detroit doesn't score more than 2 goals for him.
Sooooo.....you're saying that Ozzie has given up 63 goals in 23 appearances this year because the offense isn't scoring goals? That makes a ton of sense. He's lost 10 of 11 games when they've scored 2 goals or fewer, so his % there is actually a lot worse than Howard's. You're proving my case for me.

Quote:
Who is saying 'short leash'? Obviously Howard's going to get the playoff starts, barring some disaster.
Then what are you arguing about? This is about whether or not they should sit Howard and give Ozzie a bunch of starts to get ready for the playoffs - if Ozzie ever sees the ice in the playoffs it will be due to "some disaster", as you suggest.

I don't know what kind of discussion you're trying to warp this into, but that is the discussion that was taking place. Sandman said that Ozzie is the man in the playoffs and they need to get him ready - several of us think that's ridiculous and are arguing against that logic. Your "but Ozzie is still good, just give him a chance, even though Howard should start in the playoffs!" straw man/nonsense doesn't have any bearing on this particular discussion.

What exactly is your "thesis" here? That Ozzie is still good if you give him enough starts?

Quote:
For instance, we can be reasonably sure that Nabokov is going to spit the bit at some point in the playoffs. We can be reasonably sure of this because he's done it every playoff year. It's not a bibilcal certainty, but it's a trend worth noticing. With Howard, or with other rookie goalies, you just don't know. So, while Howard has been great this year, Detroit enters the playoffs with just as much of a question mark there for him as they had to start the season, unfortunately.
The Wings don't know what they'll get from Ozzie, but they haven't gotten anything useful from him since December. They don't know for sure what they'll get from Howard, but if he plays the way he has played the last 4 months they will be in good shape, to the point where if they lose it won't be from lack of goaltending.

The question mark would be 10 times bigger if it were Osgood starting instead of Howard.

Maybe Ozzie can get his game back together for next season, but his game is in pieces right now and 3 games before the start of the playoffs is not the time to try and put it back together. This is the time to get the team running as best as you can and then hope it holds up in the playoffs.

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04-06-2010, 03:38 PM
  #75
doublejack
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
I'd say that Maltby, Draper, and Ozzie are all in pretty much the same boat - below-average players that are fill-ins on a good team and not fit to be depended upon heavily. Maybe we're wrong about Ozzie and he just needs a month to get his game together, but it's too late for that to happen now. That month will have to be September. It's Howard's show for as long as he can keep them on the air.
Having another year on his contract does give Osgood a chance at redemption. However, the numbers aren't pretty. His decline started in February 2008.

2007-08 Situational Stats

Code:
Category	             GP	W	L	T	OT	MINS	GA	SO	GAA	
Games in October        	6	6	0	0	0	360	9	0	1.50	
Games in November	9	6	1	0	0	517	17	1	1.97	
Games in December	6	5	1	0	0	359	10	1	1.67
Games in January	        6	4	1	0	0	332	13	1	2.35	
Games in February	8	2	5	0	0	401	20	1	2.99
Then he sucked all of last season, until the very end


2008-09 Situational Stats

Code:
Category	             GP	W	L	T	OT	MINS	GA	SO	GAA
Games in October	        7	4	1	0	2	426	24	0	3.38	
Games in November	8	5	0	0	2	458	23	0	3.01	
Games in December	4	3	1	0	0	243	13	0	3.21	
Games in January	        7	3	2	0	2	388	23	0	3.56	
Games in February	7	4	1	0	0	419	22	0	3.15	
Games in March	        9	5	3	0	0	484	23	2	2.85	
Games in April and May	4	2	1	0	0	244	9	0	2.21
And this season started as a repeat of last season. Really, outside of the playoffs Osgood has been just awful for going on 2 full seasons. When is enough for the blindly faithful to realize the end is here?

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