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Bet with My Friend (Shootout)

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Old
04-20-2010, 01:53 PM
  #1
Synergy27
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Bet with My Friend (Shootout)

So, I recently made a little wager with a friend of mine. He believes that he can stop me 6/10 times in a shootout. I score 5, he pays me $100, he stops 6, I pay him. Very straighforward right?

There's one big wrinkle in the story though: my friend is not a goalie. He's 5'6", about 165 lbs., and hasn't strapped on a pair of skates, let alone goalie equipment, since our teenage neighborhood street hockey days. We're both 29 now. I've been playing consistently since I was 15, topped out playing D3 club hockey (ACHA) in college and still play in a very competitive B+ level league in northern NJ. I'm a 6'0", 190 lb. forward. My biggest asset is my shot. I've never been anything more than an average skater, but I always play a scoring role on my teams and I feel like I have a pretty good idea about how to put the puck in the net.

I'm on the ice about 3 times a week in the winter, so I'm still in pretty good shape. I'll admit that my friend was pretty damn nimble when we were kids, hell I think he can still do a standing backflip (he has a gymnastics background), but he generally describes himself as out of shape and needing to get back to the gym.

My question for you guys is whether or not you agree with me thinking he's crazy for taking the bet. I really feel like he's just trying to get under my skin with the big talk and that he made the bet because he doesn't think we'll ever really get the chance to suit him up. But he insists that he honestly thinks he's going to win, and I'm done trying to talk him out of it. Do you think a non-goalie can luck into 6 saves? Am I the crazy one? Thought this might lead to a fun discussion.

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04-20-2010, 02:03 PM
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Jarick
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I think a good shooter will beat a bad goalie in that situation...but $100 is a lot of cheese, I'd just go with a six pack of winner's choice.

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04-20-2010, 02:10 PM
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Here's some old shootout stats from the three seasons prior to 07/08: http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2007/11/a...t-records.html

Brodeur, for example, has a SV% of .703 in the shootout for those three seasons. This is a world-class goalie against NHL-caliber shooters.

In your case, you have a well-practiced shooter going against a street-hockey goalie who hasn't played in 15 years. I'm thinking the odds are tipped in your favours just slightly. Slightly.

Put me down for $100 that you'll score 7 or more against him, will ya?

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04-20-2010, 02:20 PM
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SouthpawTRK
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If you think that he's a bit crazy to have made the bet stopping 6/10, perhaps you can make it more fair for him and make it 5/10? Either that, or make the wager a little less; say $5 for each goal he stops out of 10. Since you guys are friends, it will be a good time nonetheless

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04-20-2010, 02:23 PM
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blueberrydanish
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I hope he had been heavily drinking when making that bet.

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04-20-2010, 02:33 PM
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Synergy27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthpawTRK View Post
If you think that he's a bit crazy to have made the bet stopping 6/10, perhaps you can make it more fair for him and make it 5/10? Either that, or make the wager a little less; say $5 for each goal he stops out of 10. Since you guys are friends, it will be a good time nonetheless
Haha, I'm glad the consensus so far seems to agree that he's the crazy one. Believe me man, I've tried to talk some sense into him. This bet actually started at $50 but HE bumped it up to $100 because he's so confident! That's what actually got me second guessing myself and what prompted me to post this thread. I started to think I was underestimating how hard it is to actually score on a breakaway, even if the goalie isn't really a goalie.

I think he took a class in his MBA program that taught him the power of positive thinking or something. He thinks he can do anything! I think he made a similar bet with another friend of ours involving soccer penalty kicks...

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Old
04-20-2010, 02:45 PM
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Well anything can happen, he isn't that crazy to be honest.

When I play street hockey we use a full size net, but the goalie uses street hockey pads with no chest protector, so he's a lot smaller than a legit goalie, in a legit net.

I'm actually a pretty good hockey player, while he has never even played house league (but is goalie all the time in street hockey so..)

Anyways, I find it difficult to score in a shootout scenario, it has to be the perfect shot, or a perfect deke, because as soon as YOU mess up and shoot it at the goalie, it's not going in.

Your situation sounds totally doable though, but just focus. If you don't, you'll have your wallet out before you know it.

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04-20-2010, 02:59 PM
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He's already in your head! You had to make a thread.

Just score the first goal with a deke and your good.

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04-20-2010, 03:16 PM
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Synergy27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quicktimer View Post
He's already in your head! You had to make a thread.

Just score the first goal with a deke and your good.
He's definitely in my head! I admit it! But at the same time I think it's ridiculous. He's sooooo small! I feel like I can beat him 6 out of 10 with wristers from the top of the circle...

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04-20-2010, 03:20 PM
  #10
Hrad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
He's definitely in my head! I admit it! But at the same time I think it's ridiculous. He's sooooo small! I feel like I can beat him 6 out of 10 with wristers from the top of the circle...
BTW is there any chance you can record this? I think we at HFBoards want to see how it goes.

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Old
04-20-2010, 03:25 PM
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1Knee1T
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First shot, slapper/wrist/snap, whatever you're good at.
Second, pump fake the same shot and close in with a deke.

Even if you're 0 for 2, now he has to worry about you ripping a shot AND you pump faking. He's bound to start over thinking it at some point.

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Old
04-20-2010, 03:35 PM
  #12
Synergy27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TullyNYR View Post
First shot, slapper/wrist/snap, whatever you're good at.
Second, pump fake the same shot and close in with a deke.

Even if you're 0 for 2, now he has to worry about you ripping a shot AND you pump faking. He's bound to start over thinking it at some point.
Haha. You're too nice! My current plan is to ring the first one off his face just out of spite.

Also, if this does indeed end up happening, I can almost guarantee it will be recorded.

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04-20-2010, 03:53 PM
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noobman
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You don't know what to expect with a goalie like that. He might just sit in the net and force you to shoot for one of the holes. He may just dive out at you and pokecheck the puck away. He might not bite on your dekes the way you expect, or he might be too slow to react to your fakes the way you expect him to.

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04-20-2010, 04:55 PM
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doobie604
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if he hasn't been skating since 15, just shoot it. go in with speed and you should have lots of holes to shoot at.

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04-20-2010, 05:04 PM
  #15
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Just fire slap shots. He'll save the first one and think twice about saving the next one.

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Old
04-20-2010, 05:29 PM
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Yeah, it's generally acknowledged that if a goalie can stop 50% of breakaways, then he's above par. Obviously, this skews with better shooters/goalies, but yeah, 5/10 would make him a good tendy. Since it's going down on ice, you have a huge advantage, cause i doubt he will be able to go left to right properly, so you should be able to smoke him pretty good!

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04-20-2010, 06:06 PM
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raygunpk
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if he's really that small, you can just go in fast like you're going to deke, to get him deep in his net. then you have all of the upper corners to hit with your good shot.

MAKE IT 200!

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Old
04-20-2010, 06:57 PM
  #18
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Don't be so sure this is an easy bet.

I have seen goaltenders who can't stop a beachball from the redline, completely shut down a team full of ex-pro's because they knew he was brutal.

He can completely luck into winning the bet.

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Old
04-20-2010, 09:04 PM
  #19
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You will own his azz.

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Old
04-21-2010, 06:16 PM
  #20
AZcoyotes
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Looks like you just got some money

My Advice to you is, dont deak him.
If you have a good shot, try hitting the open area insted of deaking to creat open areas. Hes inexperenced so you dont know what hell do.

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Old
04-21-2010, 07:04 PM
  #21
SERE 24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Synergy27 View Post
He's definitely in my head! I admit it! But at the same time I think it's ridiculous. He's sooooo small! I feel like I can beat him 6 out of 10 with wristers from the top of the circle...
I played NCAA hockey and my buddy from high school played ACHA hockey. He's a goalie, I'm a defenseman. He bet I couldn't go 50% on him on breakaways one summer. I went 80%, and he was playing ACHA DII club. The best thing your friend has going for him is that he's got you doubting yourself. Don't. $100 is a lot of cheddar, but you guys are 29 so... it's his own fault if he wants to throw his money away. Plus, if you beat him too bad you can say "Man, keep your money and buy me a few beers tonight, but... I told you."

Honestly... his chances are NOT good. You should be able to skate in slow and patient and snipe 7/10. No joke. You're not too far off thinking you can beat him with wristers from the circles... that's kind of what you should do. Don't come in and try to dangle him and rock his world... just come in and shoot. Honestly, deking on the breakaway is overrated anyways unless you've got Sam Gagner hands. If you wanna throw some simple ones at him, I'm sure you'll be successful because the odds are stacked heavily in your favor, but if I were you and I really wanted that $100 I'd just come in, use a shoulder fake and pick spots. He'll end up looking like he's flailing his arms at your shots or otherwise completely guessing, going down and kicking low to his right while you throw it up over his shoulder.

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Old
04-21-2010, 08:13 PM
  #22
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It depends on how well you know his moves and how well he knows yours. If you're going to deke, mix them up and disguise them.. I have 4 moves that look the exact same until the last moment.

BUT, like the above post-er mention, it's probably best to just shoot to beat him. I recommend the Brad Richards, go in there hauling ass and shoot just above the pad.

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04-21-2010, 09:51 PM
  #23
rinkrat22
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after you beat him take his $100 and then go to dinner at hooters or Tilted Kilt enjoy the scenery and rub in the fact that you won the bet. But you have to pick up the check.

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Old
04-22-2010, 09:04 AM
  #24
Synergy27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TBLfan View Post
It depends on how well you know his moves and how well he knows yours. If you're going to deke, mix them up and disguise them.. I have 4 moves that look the exact same until the last moment.

BUT, like the above post-er mention, it's probably best to just shoot to beat him. I recommend the Brad Richards, go in there hauling ass and shoot just above the pad.


Thanks for all the responses guys, my confidence is officially back! Honestly, I'm not concerned at all about his "moves" because I am convinced he doesn't have any. I also definitely plan to just shoot the puck. My go to move on a "real" goalie is usually just a simple forehand/backhand deke to open up the five-hole, but I expect my friend's five hole (and many others) to already be wide open so dekeing won't even be necessary.

Really all I wanted out of this thread was confirmation that there is considerable skill involved in goalies stopping breakaways and an estimate of how many saves a total beginner can expect to luck into. You guys provided that and more. Thanks!


Last edited by Synergy27: 04-22-2010 at 09:10 AM.
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