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Old
04-27-2010, 12:16 PM
  #26
Drake744
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I like Grebs the only thing I've noticed is he looks like he tends to pinch too much in the offensive zone which may tend to hurt us if he's playing 70 or 80 games, but all in all I think I'd like to see him back. I don't hate on Hamhuis the way a lot of people do so I wouldn't mind seeing him back either but if we could let him go and use that money to re-sign Buillion for a slightly higher price if need be, I'd rather do that. Of course it depends on what players really want also. Buillion is a Montreal guy who is used to playing in Montreal, or at least Canada, and maybe he doesn't want to stay. Who knows? But if we can keep him I'd really like to.

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04-27-2010, 12:18 PM
  #27
triggrman
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Funny, I'm not as big on Boullion as most on here. With the puck he's not that much better than Klein.

I'm really hoping Blum is ready to make the jump next season.

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04-27-2010, 12:31 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Funny, I'm not as big on Boullion as most on here. With the puck he's not that much better than Klein.

I'm really hoping Blum is ready to make the jump next season.
I tend to agree with this. I'd love to see Bouillion back in the role he was supposed to play this year. Solid 3rd pairing guy. 15-17 minutes a game. He almost averaged 20 min a game during the playoffs. That's just too much.

Other thoughts on ideas I've seen in this thread:

Poni? No way in hell. He's more of a 2 way guy. I see him putting up Legwand numbers in a system like ours. We don't need another 4 million dollar a year 40 point player.

Smyth? Too old and we already have a similar player in Horny.


Grebeshkov- I feel he will just be too expensive for us. His creativity from the backend would be nice though. Don't be surprised if he jumps to the KHL

Hammer- Don't be surprised if he comes back. He wants to stay badly.

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Old
04-27-2010, 12:34 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by triggrman View Post
Funny, I'm not as big on Boullion as most on here. With the puck he's not that much better than Klein.

I'm really hoping Blum is ready to make the jump next season.
He's a defensive defenseman, so if he's not that great with the puck it's not a big deal. I, however would also like to see Blum ready to make the jump.

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Old
04-27-2010, 01:46 PM
  #30
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So much stuff to reply to and I'm on my phone.
There was a post about Grebeshkov costing us a goal a game- according to the stats that's about right. Grebeshkov's GAON/60 is one of the worst in the NHL at 3.33. If he plays 18 minutes per game or so... That's about a goal a game. He has had flashes of brilliance though and he's worth taking a stab at for less than three mil.
I think the best thing for this team would be to pick up a top-line forward. If we could add a 40 goal scorer I think we would contend for the cup.
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Old
04-27-2010, 01:55 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Oil View Post
There was a post about Grebeshkov costing us a goal a game- according to the stats that's about right. Grebeshkov's GAON/60 is one of the worst in the NHL at 3.33. If he plays 18 minutes per game or so... That's about a goal a game.
Huh? No, that's not right. What's the average D-Man's GAON/60/Per playing time? You'd have to subtract that from Grebs number. For example if the average D-man is a .7 and Grbs is a 1, then he "costs" .3 goals a game. Not a full goal. Then you have to add how many goals per game you gain, compared to the average defender.

To say he costs more then a fraction of a goal a game would be totally ludicrous. In fact, he may gain us per game due to his offense.

With your way of calculating, every single defender in the NHL costs you significant goals per game. Maybe they should retire.

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04-27-2010, 02:04 PM
  #32
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But that's not true...
Bouillon's, for example, is 1.65 goals against while on ice per sixty minutes. He plays about 15 minutes per game and therefore costs us about 0.4125 goals per game.
For reference the player with the best GAON/60 is Keith Yandle at 1.43.
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Old
04-27-2010, 02:16 PM
  #33
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What's not true? You showed that his goals against was higher then other guys. And? You already had said that.

According to you Bouillon costs .4+ goals a game. Why would anybody keep defenders who "costs" them huge amounts like that? And as I showed, for a first, simple, start, you can subtract that from Grebs number and say, compared to Bouillon, Grebs costs .56 goals per game. And that's obviosuly the high water mark because Grebs played with a worse team, and scores more then Bouillon.

Come on. You need to compare it to the average defender and also what the team itself scores and gives up. Other factors would be the playing partner with and without Grebs. etcf. Last year Grebeshkov was +12. So if he "costs" a goal a game he must have scored, uh, 94 points to be on the plus 12 level... But he didn't, he scored 39, still nice.

If he was plus 12 last year in , whatever, 80 games, it would seem he "gained" 12/80 or .6 and 8/12 goals per game, not "cost". This year he was -16 or so. Even for Nashville in four games. Are we better with Grebs in the lineup or without him?

What's his goals against per 60 while with Nashville as well? Too small a sample size but I'm sure anyone would gain versus being on Edmonton this year. He may cost us compared to top defenders, but he gains versus others.


Last edited by OpenWheel: 04-27-2010 at 02:26 PM.
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Old
04-27-2010, 02:23 PM
  #34
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I'll try and get my point across better when I get home in a few hours. Bear with me until then.
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04-27-2010, 03:10 PM
  #35
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Cool. But I understand your point. More goals are scored against when Grebs is on the ice compared to most NHL defenders. I get that. Whether that will hold true away from Edmonton, we'll see.

The only difference is it's silly to call that cost, when what counts is the net cost. (I pretty much do this stuff for a living, in operations analysis, and also in some statistics for mechanical engineering, and we rarely give a crap about total, only the net) As I said, if you want to say that a total is the cost, then every defender costs you goals. And obviously, what counts is whether they cost you more or less then the other guy you'd plug in there. And we already see, even without adjusting for his offense, or adjusting for the 30% or so higher goals against for Edmonton versus Nashville, Grebs is only behind Bouillon by about half a goal per game. Not one goal. And once you make some reasonable adjustments for how Edmonton was worse than Nashville this year on defense (several defenders worse than Grebs plus/minus of -16 ! Yikes!) etc. it's closer.

See you later, thanks for the numbers. Looking forward to your later response as I really enjoy trying to evaluate with numbers, maybe between us we can decide whether he is awesome or trash, lol. I used to have the puck prospectus (or a similar site) evaluation of defenders, but can't find it now since I had a hard drive crash a few weeks back. Grebs came out well last year and crappy this year if I remember right, lol.

So, which is the real Grebs? Last years guy Edmonton loved, or this years guy who Edmonton fans screamed about?


Last edited by OpenWheel: 04-27-2010 at 03:20 PM.
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Old
04-27-2010, 03:45 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Oil View Post
Why would you want Ponikarovsky?
The few times i got to see him in the regular season, he looked pretty good to me and he put up half decent numbers in the sucky maple leaf team (no offense )


To fair though he has been invisible in the pens uniform in the playoffs, i think I've seen 2 pens game...


On another note I'm all ears as to who else we could bring in to help us, because for sure we NEED help

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04-27-2010, 04:18 PM
  #37
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2010-2011 season line up

So now that this season is nothing but a memory for Nashville fans, what happens this offseason??

Anyone in specific that you think is done as a Predator?? Any player(s) you have a hunch/insider thought that may be coming to Nashville??


Here is what I think,


Hamhuis gets resigned. Why would we not have traded him and got some real value at the trade deadline (especially after acquiring Grebeshkov) if Poile was not anticipating us being able to ante him up for at least one more season. I say one more season because I believe Suter and Weber upcoming contracts will most likely force Hamhuis out, or alot of our self imposed cap spent on defense.


Klein gets dealt. I think alot of teams got a bit more exposure to him in the playoffs and possibly made his stock raise a bit. I am not saying he electrified everyone and will fetch us a huge return, but I can see him going since he is probably at his peak and we could get the best return for him now.


Blum becomes regular on the blueline for us, especially after Klein deal, this makes room for him. He will have to earn it, but I feel he deserves it by now. Has he bulked up this season anyone know???



Grebeshkov bolts for KHL, don't matter, after re signing Hamhuis we were going to let him walk anyways.


If anyone is interested (and believe it or not teams will be) in any of Arnott, Sullivan, or Dumont, one of them are dealt. I am sure they would waive their NMC, one of them anyways.


Dan Ellis rights traded at draft for pick. Dekanich and Pickard scrap it out for backup to Rinne.


We sign a significant free agent (somewhere in the 4-4.5 million dollar range) to help on offense. Wonder what Frolov is lookin for??


I would also like to see Budish on Milwaukee next season.


Jerred Smithson could be involved in either Klein or Dan Ellis deal, but I can see him no longer a Predator, especially with Spaling budding.





Next seasons lineups,



Erat Arnott Hornqvist
Sullivan Wilson Freeagent
Ward Legwand O'Reilly
Tootoo Goc Spaling


Weber Suter
Hamhuis Franson
Blum Bouillon


Rinne
Pickard/Dekanich


I did this line up assuming Dumont was the one of the three we were able to move. Also, O'Reilly has a one way contract this upcoming season and I think it could be a big year for him. I also put the free agent we sign on Wilson/Sully line, hopefully can show Wilson how to play tough offensive hockey and maybe revive Sully.



Let me have it guys!!

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04-27-2010, 04:25 PM
  #38
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I like that lineup. Except I wish Arnott wouldn't be on it, and that Rads would come back from Russia. If that could happen (fat chance), maybe we could replace Arnott with someone younger and more badass.

Klein getting dealt would be glorious, but what makes you think it'll happen? Trotz seems to love the guy. I would MUCH rather keep Hammer per your lineup though.

Also I think everyone expects at least one of our assistant coaches to be gone, as far as off-ice personnel goes.



No question we need to do something significant, both on and off-ice. We need something exciting in the way of an offensive player (a bona-fide top 6 guy...don't know enough about other teams to know where he would come from but I want one!!!), and new guys to coach special teams. If we don't get these things, I think the fans will be a little bored at the start of the season.

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Old
04-27-2010, 04:27 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post
So now that this season is nothing but a memory for Nashville fans, what happens this offseason??

Anyone in specific that you think is done as a Predator?? Any player(s) you have a hunch/insider thought that may be coming to Nashville??


Here is what I think,


Hamhuis gets resigned. Why would we not have traded him and got some real value at the trade deadline (especially after acquiring Grebeshkov) if Poile was not anticipating us being able to ante him up for at least one more season. I say one more season because I believe Suter and Weber upcoming contracts will most likely force Hamhuis out, or alot of our self imposed cap spent on defense.


Klein gets dealt. I think alot of teams got a bit more exposure to him in the playoffs and possibly made his stock raise a bit. I am not saying he electrified everyone and will fetch us a huge return, but I can see him going since he is probably at his peak and we could get the best return for him now.


Blum becomes regular on the blueline for us, especially after Klein deal, this makes room for him. He will have to earn it, but I feel he deserves it by now. Has he bulked up this season anyone know???



Grebeshkov bolts for KHL, don't matter, after re signing Hamhuis we were going to let him walk anyways.


If anyone is interested (and believe it or not teams will be) in any of Arnott, Sullivan, or Dumont, one of them are dealt. I am sure they would waive their NMC, one of them anyways.


Dan Ellis rights traded at draft for pick. Dekanich and Pickard scrap it out for backup to Rinne.


We sign a significant free agent (somewhere in the 4-4.5 million dollar range) to help on offense. Wonder what Frolov is lookin for??


I would also like to see Budish on Milwaukee next season.


Jerred Smithson could be involved in either Klein or Dan Ellis deal, but I can see him no longer a Predator, especially with Spaling budding.





Next seasons lineups,



Erat Arnott Hornqvist
Sullivan Wilson Freeagent
Ward Legwand O'Reilly
Tootoo Goc Spaling


Weber Suter
Hamhuis Franson
Blum Bouillon


Rinne
Pickard/Dekanich


I did this line up assuming Dumont was the one of the three we were able to move. Also, O'Reilly has a one way contract this upcoming season and I think it could be a big year for him. I also put the free agent we sign on Wilson/Sully line, hopefully can show Wilson how to play tough offensive hockey and maybe revive Sully.



Let me have it guys!!




http://capgeek.com/ufa_finder.php?Po...Type=TOI_TOTPG


See anyone ya like??

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Old
04-27-2010, 04:28 PM
  #40
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I expect little to change. It's Poile. Maybe he'll prove me wrong.

One thing I would NOT do is sign Hamhuis to anything over 2-2.5m, and certainly would not give him a NTC. He gets beat badly almost every game. A team that pays him 3.5m+ will regret it. Still pissed that we didn't trade him last offseason when we could've gotten a good piece for him, and signed a vet like Skrastins to replace him.

I would look at Micalek or Siendberg as a Hamhuis replacement. They're just better, IMO.

I don't expect anyone of our 4.5 million men (Arnott, Lewgand, Erat, Dumont) to get moved, as much as we need to move at least 2 of them. They have NTC, and I don't see Poile asking to the waive it. They will have to request it. Even if they do, the only ones that MIGHT be trade able are Arnott (b/c he has one year) and Erat. Arnott will be more movable as the season goes on (less cap hit for the team taking him).

Best we can hope for is Radulov to come back. And Weber for Malkin

That's as far as I'm going go with it. I don't expect much to happen, so I'm not going to get my hopes up.

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Old
04-27-2010, 04:30 PM
  #41
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Make the qualifying offer for Grebeshkov. Then switch him to forward. We get our scoring upgrade for 3.4 million.

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04-27-2010, 04:41 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post

Personally I picked these guys out as nice possible additions to our forwards,


Milan Hejduk
Raffi Torres
Kyle Wellwood (may be a risk)
Alex Tanguay
Maxim Afinogenov
Olli Jokinen
Alex Frolov
Chris Higgins (may be a risk)
Matt Lombardi
Saku Koivu (could be a steal, great beside Wilson)
Tomas Plekanec
Patrick Marleau


My top 3 would be,

Marleau
Tanguay
Jokinen

My realistic (and probable) top 3 would be,

Tomas Plekanec
Alex Frolov
Max Afinogenov/Milan Hejduk


We need a solid guy, not another Dumont or Arny! We need goals!!

Another FA link
http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-n...s-by-position/

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Old
04-27-2010, 05:03 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OpenWheel View Post
Cool. But I understand your point. More goals are scored against when Grebs is on the ice compared to most NHL defenders. I get that. Whether that will hold true away from Edmonton, we'll see.

The only difference is it's silly to call that cost, when what counts is the net cost. (I pretty much do this stuff for a living, in operations analysis, and also in some statistics for mechanical engineering, and we rarely give a crap about total, only the net) As I said, if you want to say that a total is the cost, then every defender costs you goals. And obviously, what counts is whether they cost you more or less then the other guy you'd plug in there. And we already see, even without adjusting for his offense, or adjusting for the 30% or so higher goals against for Edmonton versus Nashville, Grebs is only behind Bouillon by about half a goal per game. Not one goal. And once you make some reasonable adjustments for how Edmonton was worse than Nashville this year on defense (several defenders worse than Grebs plus/minus of -16 ! Yikes!) etc. it's closer.

See you later, thanks for the numbers. Looking forward to your later response as I really enjoy trying to evaluate with numbers, maybe between us we can decide whether he is awesome or trash, lol. I used to have the puck prospectus (or a similar site) evaluation of defenders, but can't find it now since I had a hard drive crash a few weeks back. Grebs came out well last year and crappy this year if I remember right, lol.

So, which is the real Grebs? Last years guy Edmonton loved, or this years guy who Edmonton fans screamed about?
Ah- now we understand each other. I didn't realize you meant the net total wasn't 1+, it was a fraction. My stupid mistake.
It's only been two years, I think it's a little early to say who the real Grebs is. And he wasn't that bad at the beginning of the year before he got hurt (along with everyone else on the team ) so in my opinion he's worth keeping but NOT for more than 2M/yr.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WalkmanX View Post
The few times i got to see him in the regular season, he looked pretty good to me and he put up half decent numbers in the sucky maple leaf team (no offense )


To fair though he has been invisible in the pens uniform in the playoffs, i think I've seen 2 pens game...


On another note I'm all ears as to who else we could bring in to help us, because for sure we NEED help
He's a decent player at best, but he won't solve much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post
Personally I picked these guys out as nice possible additions to our forwards,


Milan Hejduk
Raffi Torres
Kyle Wellwood (may be a risk)
Alex Tanguay
Maxim Afinogenov
Olli Jokinen
Alex Frolov
Chris Higgins (may be a risk)
Matt Lombardi
Saku Koivu (could be a steal, great beside Wilson)
Tomas Plekanec
Patrick Marleau


My top 3 would be,

Marleau
Tanguay
Jokinen

My realistic (and probable) top 3 would be,

Tomas Plekanec
Alex Frolov
Max Afinogenov/Milan Hejduk


We need a solid guy, not another Dumont or Arny! We need goals!!

Another FA link
http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/2010-n...s-by-position/
I bolded the guys I'd like to see, and here's another FA link (my personal favorite, highly comprehensive:
NHLNumbers

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Old
04-27-2010, 05:21 PM
  #44
OpenWheel
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Ah- now we understand each other. I didn't realize you meant the net total wasn't 1+, it was a fraction. My stupid mistake.
I knew we would be on the same page in the end but I slapped my posts together as I thought of some numbers in my head. I wasn't very clear what I meant, my points were haphazard. But yeah, my only point was that 'net' he costs some fraction of one goal per game at worst compared to some average solid guy. But you are correct that on average, about a goal a game is going in while he's on the ice.

It is a pretty high number for Grebs as far as that 3.33 (or whatever it was) for goals per 60 minutes. Much higher than average. But just going by the eyeball test he doesn't look worse compared to say, Klein. Yeah, Grebs pinches and cheats a lot trying to join the offense (from a small sample of games I've seen) so he costs goals, but we are almost sure to score a fair bit more. And that gives Trotz some options. I think he's very good player. If we could get him for near 3 million I would like it. I don't see them paying it though. I'd rather we sign Grebs at 3, trade Klein if we need to, bring up Blum. Of course I may be excited about Grebs based on just far to few games to go on . I never watched him before he came here.


Last edited by OpenWheel: 04-27-2010 at 05:27 PM.
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Old
04-27-2010, 05:29 PM
  #45
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The thing about Grebeshkov is that he wasn't jus negatively affected by the ineptitude of the team around him in Edmonton- he was a really big part of that ineptitude. I'm not saying he wouldn't play better on a better team, but the guy was a major part of the reason Edmonton was so bad.

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Old
04-27-2010, 06:08 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lightning_legwand View Post
Personally I picked these guys out as nice possible additions to our forwards,

My top 3 would be,

Marleau
Tanguay
Jokinen

[/url]
that right there tells me you are living in ea sports land building a team. check tanguay, the guy was trash playing with st. louis and stamkos and eventually was a 4th liner. what will he produce with snithson and goc?

and jokinen is your classic locker room cancer. every team he leaves gets better. florida dealt him to pho and florida made a push for the playoffs. pho trades him to calgary, look at them this year. calgary trades him and gives a nice run after sucking for most of the year with him. what did he do in new york? they were a playoff team wehn he was traded and then finished 9th.

i'm not denying his talent. but what is between his ears is just as important as his pretty little stats on a video game

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04-27-2010, 06:10 PM
  #47
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Did everybody hit their head when they jumped off the cliff last night? Most of these personnel proposals must be the result of concussions.

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04-27-2010, 06:26 PM
  #48
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Olli Jokinen? REALLY!!?

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Old
04-27-2010, 06:36 PM
  #49
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No Jokinen . He skates well but goes nowwhere . We still have a few guys to trade for bodies or picks . We could trade Klein ,Smithson or Boyd and still pick up a UFA

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Old
04-27-2010, 08:44 PM
  #50
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I seriously should stop liking Nashville goalies because when I do they get traded. Vokoun was (and still is) my favorite and he's gone. I really like Ellis especially as I got to see him when he played for the ECHL team in Boise the Idaho Steelheads. He carried the team on his back that playoffs and they won the Kelly Cup with a 13-0 record and 1.86 GAA.

And now the season is done and it looks like Ellis will be gone, bah humbug.

What's going to happen to Sulzer too?

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