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Cat Gone Crazy: David Poile's Algebra class

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05-01-2010, 10:26 AM
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BigFatCat999
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Cat Gone Crazy: David Poile's Algebra class

I remember when I was in algebra class and doing the problems in my head. It seemed simple to me. Of Course the jackass called me wrong even when I got the answer right. In the end, the old saying is right, what the hell am I going to use this for? Well, hockey of course.....

Here's the roster formula for the Preds:

X=6 or 7, Y equals 14 or 15, and Z=2

X+Y+Z=22 or 23

X= # of Defenseman
Y= # of Forwards
Z= # of Goalies

Let's look at X. Right now the Preds have the following roster defensemen: Weber-Suter-Klein-Sulzer. Franson and Grebshkov are RFAs. Bouillon and Hamhuis are UFAs.

Here's the rub. Blum is on the roster and could be ready for NHL time.

The Preds COULD have 6 defensemen in Weber-Suter, Klein-Franson, Sulzer-Blum and go with Josi for depth. Not very deep but a lot of options are open. Grebs has a value as an RFA and could garner value for a trade. I'm not counting out Hamhuis till the forward situation is resolved. I want to know what the RFA values are for Franson and Grebs.

Goal is pretty simple: Rinne is the #1, he earned it in the playoffs and the second half of the season. After signing his extension, he got BETTER. Great sign for the guy. Bad news possibly if your name is Chet Pickard, or Jeremy Smith. Pickard is not quite ready for backup duty. Maybe half way through the season. Note, Pickard will be making 1+ million with bonuses and that's a pretty good hit for a back up goalie even if he's a rookie and is playing well. If this turns into a 1a 1b situation in 2 years could be interesting.

Forward is where the situation can be interesting. Time for some more math.

45 million is the self imposed cap for the Nashville Predators. 48.8 Million is the hard cap for revenue sharing.

The Preds are at 41 million with only 16 players and are at risk of going OVER the hard cap of 48.8 million. Something has to give with 2 defenseman, backup goalie, and Hornqvist to sign. Someone making big money is heading out the door.

SLake wisely noted that the signing of Wade Belak is NOT a sign of a trade being made. Just a guy filling a role called permascratch #1. It's the roster player prospects stepover to get vital playing time to grow. It's usually reserved for players who have a varied but very limited talents. Talents such as media relations, team building, and pugilism on ice skates. If you want a Tennessee metaphore think a blue tick basset hound who likes to lay in front of the door frame. They bay wonderfully, they adaquately guard the front door when someone tries to impose their will on the property, and they can be stepped over by more talented, higher evolved members of the animal kingdom.

I humbly disagree with SLake. (Seriously, would it detrimental if I actually called SLake by his RL name? Would it cause a fracture in the internet and stop digital commerce in the world?)

Let's break it down: The canidates for the trade are as follows; Legwand, Erat, Dumont, Arnott, and Sullivan.

Legwand and Erat are off the list. Pure and simple they provide just as much statistical value as they do intrinsic, intangible values to the team. Erat has the juicest paid number ($5,250,000) BUT he's worth the cost. Same with Legwand at $4,500,000. He's better than Mike Fisher who's at 4.2 million for a comparison. (Now if he could do to fisher what most NHL players do to Sean Avery's ex-girlfriends and steal Carrie Underwood....)

Sullivan provides the lowest cap number for FAs at $3,750,000 and showed the glimmers of what we loved about his skill. Even if he can't score as much, he's ability to be a one man PK unit is HIGHLY underrated. Let me quote the CBJ spy in the midst, when describeing Sullivan's puck handling skill.

"PUCK IS MINE! MINE! MINE! MINE! MINE!"

Sullivan is removed leaving the two best canidates: Dumont and Arnott.

Dumont's ice time has greatly reduced. Arnott's concusions are becoming scary to me personally. Dumont's number would be 4 million, Arnott's number is 4.5 million.Dumont can be replaced more easily than Arnott but he is deeply loyal to Nashville. Also, DUmont has two years left on his contract where as Arnott has one. If Dumont is moved that will leave even more room for a Weber extension and signing of FAs in two years.

In my mind one of these guys are gone next year. It's the only way the numbers work. One of these guys go that's Hornqvist and resigning Dan Ellis or using the rest of the money to re-sign Hamhuis or Grebs which would be a big boost to the depth of the defense. Financially, I can see Grebs as the sign, he can be signed for cheaper than Hamhuis and has eaten 20+ minutes before at the NHL level. Also he's a PP allinged player which could help the PP. If Arnott were to retire because of health issues this would be a major boom for the Preds. But something tells me that it's going to be Dumont.

Here's what I THINK will happen:

Hornqvist(Signed for 2.25 Million with a contract that get's fatter each year)-Arnott-Erat
Wilson-Legwand-Sully
Ward-Goc-Tootoo
Spaling-O'Reilly-Smithson
Belak

Weber-Suter
Grebs(Signed 2.5-2.75 Million)-Klein
Franson(Signed for .8-1.0 Million)-Boullion (Signed 1 million)

Blum for depth

Josi in Milwaukee

Rinne
UFA to be named later for under 1 million signing.

Dumont pays for Hornqvist, Boullion, and Franson. Grebs and the backup make it a guesstimated total of 44.5 million.

To be honest, I'm hoping it's Arnott. Not out of spite but out of worry. I'm frankly worried about what the repeated concussions will intail. It's not going to happen because the guy has one more year left on his contract.



Here are some things I expect in this off-season.

I would not be shocked that Alexander Sulzer gets traded. The guy's been jerked around and with Josi, Blum, and now Ellis and COR waiting in the wings he's an extra cog. Unlike Ryan Jones, I do expect the Preds to get something for Sulzer. Nashville Defensemen have a demand on the market. Could he be traded for a backup goalie?

Josi will be signed in the off-season and Blum will be the 7th defenseman who enjoys the shuttle back and forth to Milwaukee.

I do expect to see Blake Geoffrion in a Preds regular season game. I think his skill set matches what Nashville needs; an improved PK and PP.

The question becomes, which UFA backup goalie will be out there? More importantly, which one will sign for less than 1 million?


Last edited by BigFatCat999: 05-01-2010 at 06:39 PM.
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05-01-2010, 11:58 AM
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glenngineer
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BFC, a few thoughts on your post.

1) Thought you said we were keeping Sully but didn't see him on any of your lines.

2) Being that Grebs is a RFA and we have to qualify him I don't think his salary can drop as much as you project him at. I remember seeing something that his salary has to be within 10% of what he is making now, either up and/or down. Not sure of the specifics but thought I'd throw that into the equation.

3) I agree that either Arnott or Dumont could be gone and to be quite honest, both could be gone. After reading what Trotz has had to say in the paper about both, it would not surprise me if one or both asked to be moved. I'd rather hold onto Dumont of the two because he is a team guy. He gained a lot of respect from me for keeping his mouth shut about his playing time and addressing with Trotz once the season was over. Not many guys like that around and he put the team first. Kudos to JP.

4) As far as the defense goes, I think you're right, Sulzer could be traded but I don't see Blum as a 7th defenseman. He'll either be the first call up if someone gets hurt or he starts the year up here. If he and Grebs are here, I can see the PP getting a whole lot better. Both are good at the points. I have a funny feeling Blum will make the jump next year. Grinder and I have thought he could've made the team out of camp the last few years but for some reason didn't. I also don't know that we could re-sign Bouillon for that cheap. Maybe we can but he proved he was valuable and healthy last year so I think he's gonna get a bigger offer on the free agent market.

Overall though I like a lot of your thoughts and agree with most of them with the few noted exceptions. I think this may be the year the owners have to open up their wallets a little more because we are approaching the cap but if we can somehow unload Arnott and/or Dumont, I think that helps fix part of the salary problem

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05-01-2010, 12:53 PM
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BFC, this is a terrific post. I'll formulate a more useful response once I'm back at home.

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05-01-2010, 01:39 PM
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Grebeshkov must be tendered at 100%

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05-01-2010, 02:10 PM
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nevermind


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05-01-2010, 02:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones93 View Post
Grebeshkov must be tendered at 100%
thats gonna be the tricky part. to retain his rights we have to tender him. And I think we will because otherwise we whizzed away a second round pick for nothing.

But I'll be surprised if we sign grebs to the one year 3.15 mil deal. I think if we sign him it'll be a multi year deal for less than 3.15 per. If grebs knows his true value on the open market is less than 3 million, this would make sense for him to do.

the other option is to make the qualifying offer then trade his rights. Or, trade his rights and let the receiving team figure out how to make it work. I think one of these two is what we will most likely see.

the first domino will have to be Dumont. If Poile cant move him (or somebody) then there really isnt much to do except sign some league minimum hole pluggers and hope for the best

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05-01-2010, 03:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
BFC, a few thoughts on your post.


3) I agree that either Arnott or Dumont could be gone and to be quite honest, both could be gone. After reading what Trotz has had to say in the paper about both, it would not surprise me if one or both asked to be moved. I'd rather hold onto Dumont of the two because he is a team guy. He gained a lot of respect from me for keeping his mouth shut about his playing time and addressing with Trotz once the season was over. Not many guys like that around and he put the team first. Kudos to JP.
I was wondering that too...what do you guys think about the possibility of Dumont AND Arnott being moved?

Dumont is obviously not happy about his reduced playing time, and Trotz obviously doesn't care. It's really unlike Trotz to make public comments like he did about Dumont, especially about how he'll be used next year. It seems apparent that Nashville doesn't really want Dumont anymore; it's just a question of whether Dumont wants to keep playing here or not.

Arnott is disappointed that he didn't get to play with Dumont as much this year, and Trotz has said he doesn't really see anything changing. Plus his comments about Arnott were pretty underwhelming, and I can't really think of any other time he's said anything negative about Arnott publicly. If Arnott knows the coach doesn't really care for him, that he won't be playing with his BFF next year, and that he might be stripped of the C, will he still want to stay here? Does he even care about any of that, or is he mainly just in it for the paycheck? If he cares, maybe he'll leave. If not, why bother?

What I really want to know is, what could we get for these guys? BFC you said you think Dumont will leave, but I'm assuming you think it will be for picks/prospects because there's no new people in your lineup. I guess that's what would have to happen if we are using money saved on Dumont and/or Arnott to sign current Predators. Do you guys think that's more likely than us trading for something semi-exciting? Are Dumont and Arnott worth enough to get anything good? What about together, or packaged with picks/prospects?

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05-01-2010, 04:27 PM
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Since the dead horse doesn't seem to be beaten yet in this thread, I'm bringing it up. Do we expect an addition of a forward via free agency? I'm not talking 6 mil a year, but someone who is going to bump a couple people down. It's pretty much inevitable that someone on a different NHL roster right now will be in ours next year. Same could be said with one defenseman, however I think we're more set there than at forward. It'll be interesting to see what the market looks like at the end of June and how the whole Arnott/Dumont situation plays out to that point. I expect to see both of them here quite honestly and I'm not happy about that. I don't drink the Dumont haterade as much as a lot of people but I'm full-on drunk from the Arnott flavor. If he leaves tomorrow I won't care one bit and it would help this team immensely moving forward.

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05-01-2010, 04:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
Since the dead horse doesn't seem to be beaten yet in this thread, I'm bringing it up. Do we expect an addition of a forward via free agency? I'm not talking 6 mil a year, but someone who is going to bump a couple people down. It's pretty much inevitable that someone on a different NHL roster right now will be in ours next year. Same could be said with one defenseman, however I think we're more set there than at forward. It'll be interesting to see what the market looks like at the end of June and how the whole Arnott/Dumont situation plays out to that point. I expect to see both of them here quite honestly and I'm not happy about that. I don't drink the Dumont haterade as much as a lot of people but I'm full-on drunk from the Arnott flavor. If he leaves tomorrow I won't care one bit and it would help this team immensely moving forward.
Hard to say at this point but if we do add anyone, others have to go for salary reasons. Hornqvist has to be re-signed as well as a back up goalie and a few defensemen. We don't have a lot of wiggle room right this moment so either we plug in our depth from the blueline into the team next year, find a cheap veteran goalie and re-sign Hornqvist at a number that doesn't blow our budget. Other than that, we'd have to unload one of the big money contracts to be able to go out and sign a forward.

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05-01-2010, 06:38 PM
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There are two numbers to worry about:

The 48.8 Million hard cap for revenue sharing and the 45 million self imposed cap.

I agree with you on Blum being the call up I expect team to play with 6 defensemen all year.

As for the information on Grebs. Yes he does have to be tendered at 100% Is he worth it Not really He had a bad year with the Oil BUT the guy can be a good sub for Hamhuis. Hamhuis is going to get 4 million. Grebs would be a million less. Problem is FITTING that 3.1 million in the soft cap.

Franson and Hornqvist are interesting. I'm like to see escalated contracts for both to spread the damage out to later years when ALL the big contracts are gone.

As for forgetting Sully D'oh!


I would rather keep Dumont, BUT, he's shown a value, and he's got two years on his contract and Arnott only one.



Here's a hypothetical for you. Let's say the Preds move Dumont and Arnott decides, "Screw it, I'll retire"

What would you do with the extra 8.5 million?


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05-01-2010, 06:53 PM
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The biggest thing you aren't taking into account is NTC/NMC clauses. They are delicate situations.

If Poile could rid himself of Arnott, Dumont, and Legwand at their current prices, I assume that he would. All are overpaid by 1-2 million. For a team with our budget limits, this gives us no flexibility.

It does look like Trotz/Poile are trying to push Dumont and maybe Arnott out the door. While it would give us more flexibility, there could be consequences to this. They are 2 of 3 semi-big FAs who have signed here (along with Kariya). If we push them out the door, it could negatively affect our ability to sign FAs in the future.

Also, I doubt any team would be willing to take on Dumont or Legwand's contract. So even if he convinces one to waive their NTC, I think it's highly unlikely to find a suitor. We might be able to find one for Arnott, for the sole reason that he's in the last year of his contract.

Poile has painted himself into a corner.

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05-01-2010, 06:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake744 View Post
Since the dead horse doesn't seem to be beaten yet in this thread, I'm bringing it up. Do we expect an addition of a forward via free agency?.
If we don't move one of our big contracts, I don't think there's anyway it happens. Especially if we resign Hamhuis.

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05-01-2010, 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
The biggest thing you aren't taking into account is NTC/NMC clauses. They are delicate situations.

If Poile could rid himself of Arnott, Dumont, and Legwand at their current prices, I assume that he would. All are overpaid by 1-2 million. For a team with our budget limits, this gives us no flexibility.

It does look like Trotz/Poile are trying to push Dumont and maybe Arnott out the door. While it would give us more flexibility, there could be consequences to this. They are 2 of 3 semi-big FAs who have signed here (along with Kariya). If we push them out the door, it could negatively affect our ability to sign FAs in the future.

Also, I doubt any team would be willing to take on Dumont or Legwand's contract. So even if he convinces one to waive their NTC, I think it's highly unlikely to find a suitor. We might be able to find one for Arnott, for the sole reason that he's in the last year of his contract.

Poile has painted himself into a corner.


I don't think we move Legwand, I have a feeling he's a life long pred.

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05-01-2010, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Soundgarden View Post
I don't think we move Legwand, I have a feeling he's a life long pred.
I don't think we could move Lewagnd. I don't see anyone taking his contract. Why trade for Lewagnd and 20 million, when you can get Prospal for 1 yr, 2 million?

For better or worse, we're stuck with him. If he can play like he did in these playoffs, it'll be for the better. If he plays like he did the last 40 games of the season, it'll be for worse. If it's somwhere in between, it'll be Mehhh.

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05-02-2010, 04:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
The 48.8 Million hard cap for revenue sharing ....
Just out of curiosity, how much money would we lose by going over that mid point? I mean, if we go over that 48.8 by one million would it be worth losing that revenue sharing money in order to make sure we can sign our guys.

Eventually we have to spend money or we'll never be more than a competitive 6,7,8 seed that might win a round or two before shipping out/letting go of all of our real talent because we can't go over that mid point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
If Poile could rid himself of Arnott, Dumont, and Legwand at their current prices, I assume that he would. All are overpaid by 1-2 million. For a team with our budget limits, this gives us no flexibility. ....
Just once, just for fun, when talking about trading guys try NOT including Legwand. It's OK to hate him or not want him on the team, but sometimes it's just not about legwand. For what legwand brought last regular season, yeah he was way overpaid. But no way would I assume Poile would trade Legwand just because of a bad season. He brings more than most people realize and while a lot of these intangibles aren't worth the 4.5, if he was gone, he would be sorely missed. Also, if you traded Arnott AND legwand that would leave us with Wilson, Goc, Smithson, O'Reilly, Spaling (he's a center, right?) as centers.

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05-02-2010, 10:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spank303 View Post
Just out of curiosity, how much money would we lose by going over that mid point? I mean, if we go over that 48.8 by one million would it be worth losing that revenue sharing money in order to make sure we can sign our guys.
From what I have seen quoted about 7 million dollars.

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