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Which Big Salaried Forward Goes?

View Poll Results: If One of them has to go, who would you like it to be?
Dany Heatley, 28, $7.5 cap hit for 4 more years 11 7.64%
Joe Thornton, 29, $7.2 cap hit for 1 more year 3 2.08%
Patrick Marleau, 29, impending UFA 95 65.97%
Ryane Clowe, 26, $3.625 cap hit for 3 more years 3 2.08%
Joe Pavelski, 24, impending RFA 2 1.39%
Devin Setoguchi, 22, impending RFA 7 4.86%
None, go with the bottom of the barrell in goal and on the blueline 23 15.97%
Voters: 144. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-04-2010, 09:55 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by SharkMight View Post
my initial post was based on the fact that we cannot resign everyone. And I listed the best case scenario, as if everyone signed home town deal, which in reality will not happen. I then followed up with a post of what players will be looking for in reality.

I clearly said in the top of the post "In reality our free agents could reasonably ask for this, either with us or on another team: "

so who is playing the game of semantics mr. bridge?


Edit: my whole point of these posts is to say that we cannot resign these players, one-two have to go regardless. I am starting to wonder what your point is???
Your method of displaying your point sucked and you can remove 'us.' The Sharks won't be paying Patrick Marleau 7.5m to play on the first line. He sees that money if there is a bidding war, which I doubt there will be.

Your 'best case' scenario is also off. You are not a member of the Sharks' brass, you do not now the inner workings of negotiations, their plan, or who is ready to step in. You use logic based on performance. Better performance == higher annual salary. That is fine, except it doesn't account for bonuses, contract limits, and of course the ever popular 'home town discount.'

If you had read my posts, you'd know my point.

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05-04-2010, 11:10 AM
  #77
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how can anyone not choose patty after what has transpired thus far
The reason I would choose Patty is that it's the easy way out in terms of looking at the other options (Nabokov and Blake notwithstanding). Moving Setoguchi or Pavelski is not happening. Getting Joe Thornton to waive his NTC is not realistic. Getting Dany Heatley to waive his NMC is not realistic.

By process of that sort of elimination, I can understand why one would choose Patty. He's not having the greatest playoffs in terms of point production but he's not being a liability out there. His defensive play gets lost in the shuffle on the player analysis because people get absolutist when it comes to the playoffs and if you don't have the offensive numbers, you're apparently useless because apparently the 3rd and 4th liners can do his job just as well.

He's been doing a lot of the little things right more often than not. Yes there have been times where he hasn't but if you look close enough, it's outweighed by the things he's done right.

The one thing people simply don't get is that it's not the offensive production you'd be missing by letting Marleau go. It's the speed. That helps in many different aspects and you need that in your top six. I'm sorry but relying on Devin Setoguchi at his age to be your only quick guy is not appealing and there is nobody that can replace him in that regard coming up or in the free agent market.

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05-04-2010, 11:29 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
The reason I would choose Patty is that it's the easy way out in terms of looking at the other options (Nabokov and Blake notwithstanding). Moving Setoguchi or Pavelski is not happening. Getting Joe Thornton to waive his NTC is not realistic. Getting Dany Heatley to waive his NMC is not realistic.

By process of that sort of elimination, I can understand why one would choose Patty. He's not having the greatest playoffs in terms of point production but he's not being a liability out there. His defensive play gets lost in the shuffle on the player analysis because people get absolutist when it comes to the playoffs and if you don't have the offensive numbers, you're apparently useless because apparently the 3rd and 4th liners can do his job just as well.

He's been doing a lot of the little things right more often than not. Yes there have been times where he hasn't but if you look close enough, it's outweighed by the things he's done right.

The one thing people simply don't get is that it's not the offensive production you'd be missing by letting Marleau go. It's the speed. That helps in many different aspects and you need that in your top six. I'm sorry but relying on Devin Setoguchi at his age to be your only quick guy is not appealing and there is nobody that can replace him in that regard coming up or in the free agent market.
I agree that Patty is a defensive PLUS, but one can get a speedy defensive forward for far cheaper than Patty's expected salary. Now, if he wants to sign a long term deal at 5M/yr, then that's another story.

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05-04-2010, 11:50 AM
  #79
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All I can say is that after reading this thread, we better win the damn cup, because were losing 1 or 2 big guys for sure no matter how you slice it.

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05-04-2010, 12:05 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
The reason I would choose Patty is that it's the easy way out in terms of looking at the other options (Nabokov and Blake notwithstanding). Moving Setoguchi or Pavelski is not happening. Getting Joe Thornton to waive his NTC is not realistic. Getting Dany Heatley to waive his NMC is not realistic.

By process of that sort of elimination, I can understand why one would choose Patty. He's not having the greatest playoffs in terms of point production but he's not being a liability out there. His defensive play gets lost in the shuffle on the player analysis because people get absolutist when it comes to the playoffs and if you don't have the offensive numbers, you're apparently useless because apparently the 3rd and 4th liners can do his job just as well.

He's been doing a lot of the little things right more often than not. Yes there have been times where he hasn't but if you look close enough, it's outweighed by the things he's done right.

The one thing people simply don't get is that it's not the offensive production you'd be missing by letting Marleau go. It's the speed. That helps in many different aspects and you need that in your top six. I'm sorry but relying on Devin Setoguchi at his age to be your only quick guy is not appealing and there is nobody that can replace him in that regard coming up or in the free agent market.
Yeah, unfortunately, Patty could well be the odd man out this offseason. (And I'm even factoring out Nabby first and signing a UFA like Biron, Ellis or Toskala for $2.5-$3m.)

While it would suck to lose Patty's speed and defensive abilities in the top 6, $5m - $6m (or even more) is a lot to pay for those assets + a "bit of scoring in the playoffs". And if it comes at the expense of Clowe/Pavs/Seto (or 2 of those 3), I wouldn't advocate that. I think a rotation of Mitchel/Malhotra (assuming he's re-signed)/Ferreiro as the other winger for Jumbo & Heater, could work out fine.

To be fair to Patty, he did a lot of little things well in Game 2... effectively pushed Lidstrom (and the puck) along the boards through the neutral zone... Hemmed in the Wings for a good 20-30 seconds with 2 minutes left in the game. Those qualities are underappreciated unfortunately.

On Seto, my hope is since he's only 23, he'll learn the defensive side. Patty, as I recall, had defensive lapses when he was the same age.

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05-04-2010, 12:11 PM
  #81
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i would try to muster up a trade with montreal for halak. he looked great in the olympics and lookin' good so far knocking off the caps.

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05-04-2010, 12:28 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by TealTownUSA View Post
i would try to muster up a trade with montreal for halak. he looked great in the olympics and lookin' good so far knocking off the caps.
you still have to sign him though. Giving up proven assets for an RFA goalie isn't a very sound plan.

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05-04-2010, 12:41 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by TealTownUSA View Post
i would try to muster up a trade with montreal for halak. he looked great in the olympics and lookin' good so far knocking off the caps.
Why not just offer sheet him for $3-3.25m - could go to $3.5m on a >3 year deal.

You're probably talking 1st and 3rd round draft picks in 2011, right? I'd go for that to solidify our starting goalie for the next 2, 3 years.

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05-04-2010, 12:49 PM
  #84
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Your method of displaying your point sucked and you can remove 'us.' The Sharks won't be paying Patrick Marleau 7.5m to play on the first line. He sees that money if there is a bidding war, which I doubt there will be.

Your 'best case' scenario is also off. You are not a member of the Sharks' brass, you do not now the inner workings of negotiations, their plan, or who is ready to step in. You use logic based on performance. Better performance == higher annual salary. That is fine, except it doesn't account for bonuses, contract limits, and of course the ever popular 'home town discount.'

If you had read my posts, you'd know my point.
This will be the last time I respond to your responses, as it seems you are just arguing for arguments sake. Feel free to get in the last word or whatever.

This thread is titled speculation for a reason. Everyone is speculating here, as you are. Unless you are part of the brass?

I initially posted in response to people saying that sharks fans are just hating. A lot can change on how our players and the sharks are viewed based on how they play the rest of the playoffs. So this whole thread is pure speculation and premature at this point.

I first posted to show that we could not sign a new D-man even with a miracle of everyone signing HTD's. Then I put some numbers up that are in ballpark range of what could be a reasonable range of what these players could be looking for. Here or elsewhere, I never said the sharks would consider signing patty for 7.5 mil either. I just lumped everyone into what they could get, w/o running down a case by case scenarios.

I by no means am a NHL salary expert, I just threw in some numbers that may or may not be exact worth of these guys, but still close enough to prove the point I am making. Which is, we cannot reasonably sign all our current talent and sign a new defensman (edit: even if) a miracle happens regardless of who stays and goes, we will have to lose 1 big player like Patty or mid ranged salary players somewhere.


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Old
05-04-2010, 01:13 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by TealTownUSA View Post
i would try to muster up a trade with montreal for halak. he looked great in the olympics and lookin' good so far knocking off the caps.
From what i've been hearing out here in the East, being that much of the talk this past couple weeks has been on the Habs, is that they may make a pitch to keep Halak and let Price walk. But then again, on Hockeycentral yesterday, they were talking of a possible opposite situation talking of the agent from Halak stated he want's out of Montreal. (no link or audio as this was just in the general hockey talk on the show). But in the end, it does look like one will be available. I guess it also depends on "IF" Naby helps us get by the Wings and if he plays well throughout the whole playoffs and if D.W. does re-sign him (eg. he will have to really prove his worth tonight as we all know the Wings are going to come at us like mad).

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05-04-2010, 02:09 PM
  #86
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What I would do:

Re-sign:

Pavelski- 4.5 cap hit, whatever number of years it takes (2, 3, 4, 10 don't care). He took an insanely low deal before, maybe he will be kind to us again. The kid wants to win, and if it meant keeping Marleau around, he probably take less.

Setoguchi- 2.75. He has been quite good in the playoffs, but a rough regular season and no-arbitration could mean a short term cheap cap hit. If you want more than 2 years, think 3.5-4.5 range.
Nichol- small raise, should be back. If he wants more than 850 or 900k let him walk, even if he may deserve. A cap constrained team has to save somewhere, and the bottom 6 and bottom pairing is where it will be.

Ortmeyer- perfectly fine in a fourth line role, but McLaren, Zalewski,
Ferrerio, and a host of UFAs can fill the role. I can about who can best fill it, but who can do so cheaply is equally important. If he'll take 500-600k go for it, otherwise find someone who will.

Malhorta- bring him back- he is capable in a top 6 role, making for a difficult match up for many teams. Like Nichol, his effort and face-off prowess are contagious. Unlike Nichol, his offensive ability, double his value. Offer multi-years at 1.5 if he'll take it. He can get more but he turned down a deal worth 8 million to come hear before. With Couture, Pavelski, and Thornton he is a luxury, but it is a hell of a luxury to have.

Blake- bring him back. He is a shell of himself, but he is still a top 4 d-man. He is worth 3-3.5, but I think it is reasonable for him to take a discount. I expect 2 million, but it really needs to be 1.5. I think that is fair given his previous wages. I think his value extends well outside his on-ice abilities.

Acquire top 6 forward:
Marleau- We will not be able to sign a replacement of his caliber. Plekanec, Kovalchuk, and Frolov (most likely) aren't coming here. Are we okay with McGinn, Couture, Malhorta, ? Are we willing to give up assets for a solid top 6 who is overpaid, injury prone, or old, like Ryder, Sturm, or Brunnette? We won't be able to an acquire a great player without giving up one of our young assets. Petrecki, 1st, and Doug Murray isn't bringing us St. Louis or Morrow (the two guys I think that have the qualities that provide an upgrade on Marleau, that could maybe be available). Will this player have chemistry with Thornton, Heatley, Pavelski, and Setoguchi? Will he be an elite penalty killer? Replacing Marleau is hard, if not impossible with one player. It absolutely will not come from free agency. If he leaves, I target Patrick Sharp, and if I were Chicago, I would trade him to 27 other teams first (Detroit and Pitt being the two to avoid). We would need an increase in efforts across the board if we don't sign him. Personally, as long as he wants to be here (which I admit could be in question), we must keep him. If it is in the 5-6.5 mill range it is worth it.

-If Marleau goes: Nabby stays, top 6 forward, and a top 4 d-man are brought it.
-If he stays: Nabby goes, and we don't get a top 4 replacement. And we may very well need to move Huskins, Mitchell, Clowe or Murray, if not two or even three of them.

I think a replacement goalie will be easy enough to find, but if the cap room is their, Nabby is easily the best goalie option and has been great, but I see him as the least important of the free agents.

However, it is all mute until after the playoffs are complete.

Keep up:
McGinn and Couture.
Last spot: Ortmeyer, Staubitz, Ortmeyer, McLaren, or Ferrerio.


Last edited by matt trick: 05-04-2010 at 02:15 PM.
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Old
05-04-2010, 02:17 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by coooldude View Post
How do we know Setoguchi can become a consistent 30+ goal scorer? He's talented, but he has also been inconsistent. 30 goals is a lot of goals. Scoring that many goals consistently is pretty rare. I don't think Seto has proved this type of skill yet.
This comment sounded senseless. TMac said it best in an interview when asked about Seto's playing when he had a drought and was being punished and demoted to lower lines early in the year

If you watch video of all his goals this season. You can certainly see a difference in his first 10 goals then in his last 10. Especially his first 4. He has the skills to be a 30+ scorer. Just inconsistent this year with getting open in the slot and getting the handle on the puck in his wheelhouse.

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05-04-2010, 02:34 PM
  #88
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Yeah, unfortunately, Patty could well be the odd man out this offseason. (And I'm even factoring out Nabby first and signing a UFA like Biron, Ellis or Toskala for $2.5-$3m.)

While it would suck to lose Patty's speed and defensive abilities in the top 6, $5m - $6m (or even more) is a lot to pay for those assets + a "bit of scoring in the playoffs". And if it comes at the expense of Clowe/Pavs/Seto (or 2 of those 3), I wouldn't advocate that. I think a rotation of Mitchel/Malhotra (assuming he's re-signed)/Ferreiro as the other winger for Jumbo & Heater, could work out fine.

To be fair to Patty, he did a lot of little things well in Game 2... effectively pushed Lidstrom (and the puck) along the boards through the neutral zone... Hemmed in the Wings for a good 20-30 seconds with 2 minutes left in the game. Those qualities are underappreciated unfortunately.

On Seto, my hope is since he's only 23, he'll learn the defensive side. Patty, as I recall, had defensive lapses when he was the same age.
This is a very sensible stance to take on the matter. With regards to Seto's defensive abilities compared to Marleau, in reality, Marleau was having defensive lapses until he was 27. He didn't start picking up that part of his game until just recently and it is pretty common for guys who come up because of raw talent and offensive ability to not pick up their defensive game until their prime or even later.

Devin will learn but not this year and probably not for a few years. A lot of what I see in Devin's game is similar to Marleau at his age and I don't expect him to deviate too much in terms of career path and when they pick certain things up. That would mean he's probably not going to really focus on it for another 4 years. Devin's still learning how to be consistent offensively and that's going to take another couple years.

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05-04-2010, 02:52 PM
  #89
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This comment sounded senseless. TMac said it best in an interview when asked about Seto's playing when he had a drought and was being punished and demoted to lower lines early in the year

If you watch video of all his goals this season. You can certainly see a difference in his first 10 goals then in his last 10. Especially his first 4. He has the skills to be a 30+ scorer. Just inconsistent this year with getting open in the slot and getting the handle on the puck in his wheelhouse.
Like I said... I don't think he has proven that he has the skills to be a consistent 30+ goal scorer. Does he have the skills to score 30 goals? Yes. He has already and he is a skilled player. But a consistent 30+ goal scorer is another type of player, and while Seto may become that player, I am not as confident as others that he is definitely going to be that player.

To bring it back to the topic at hand... Yes, Seto is skilled. No, I don't think he's ready to replace Marleau "no problem," and I'm not sure yet whether he will ever be.

For those thinking 30+ goals, consistently, is easy, I give you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Datsyuk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Zetterberg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Toews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An%C5%BEe_Kopitar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Kane


Last edited by coooldude: 05-04-2010 at 02:59 PM.
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05-04-2010, 04:00 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by coooldude View Post
Like I said... I don't think he has proven that he has the skills to be a consistent 30+ goal scorer. Does he have the skills to score 30 goals? Yes. He has already and he is a skilled player. But a consistent 30+ goal scorer is another type of player, and while Seto may become that player, I am not as confident as others that he is definitely going to be that player.

To bring it back to the topic at hand... Yes, Seto is skilled. No, I don't think he's ready to replace Marleau "no problem," and I'm not sure yet whether he will ever be.

For those thinking 30+ goals, consistently, is easy, I give you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Datsyuk
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Zetterberg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Toews
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An%C5%BEe_Kopitar
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Kane
You realize when Zetterberg broke out into elite status in 05-06 he went 39 goals (05-06) - 33 goals (06-07) - 43 goals (07-08) - 31 goals (08-09). This past season was his first non-30 goal year since 03-04.

Kopitar has had two 30 goal years in four seasons, squeezing in a 27 goal (I suppose 3 goals makes ALL the difference) season in between.

Kane and Toews also fill the roles as playmakers on the team, we don't expect that from Seto. His job would be to get open or stay in front of the net.

Datsyuk, here's how his last 5 season follow: 30 goals (03-04) - 28 goals (04-05) - 27 goals (05-06) - 31 goals (06-07) - 32 goals (07-08) - 27 goals (08-09). Again like Zetterberg, Kane, Kopitar, and Toews, Datsyuk is heavily relied on to create plays. And again, that's something we don't expect from Setoguchi.

Fine I'll back track a little and say Setoguchi won't score 30, but realistically if Marleau doesn't come back obviously Setoguchi will get better ice time. So 25 goals is not out of the realm of possibilities. Imagine if our goal production this season dropped from 44 (that of Marleau) to 25 (that of Seto), so by 20 goals. Now look at the top eight in the Western Conference standings. San Jose's goals for (264) minus 20 = 244. Aside from Chicago and Vancouver the other five teams had 244 or less and made it into the playoffs. Everybody likes to use Detroit as the golden example right? 229!

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05-04-2010, 04:09 PM
  #91
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With Patty, Nabby and Blake gone, that still doesn't free up a lot of money. The Sharks could use a decent goalie and another defenseman. With Couture up all next year and Seto getting back on track, Marleau's goals this year can be covered. Manny won't be taking a discount next year and he should be re-signed so some money needs to be set aside for that as well as Pavs's and Seto's raises. Would like to see JT get a contract extension as well.

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05-04-2010, 04:20 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by param View Post
You realize when Zetterberg broke out into elite status in 05-06 he went 39 goals (05-06) - 33 goals (06-07) - 43 goals (07-08) - 31 goals (08-09). This past season was his first non-30 goal year since 03-04.

Kopitar has had two 30 goal years in four seasons, squeezing in a 27 goal (I suppose 3 goals makes ALL the difference) season in between.

Kane and Toews also fill the roles as playmakers on the team, we don't expect that from Seto. His job would be to get open or stay in front of the net.

Datsyuk, here's how his last 5 season follow: 30 goals (03-04) - 28 goals (04-05) - 27 goals (05-06) - 31 goals (06-07) - 32 goals (07-08) - 27 goals (08-09). Again like Zetterberg, Kane, Kopitar, and Toews, Datsyuk is heavily relied on to create plays. And again, that's something we don't expect from Setoguchi.

Fine I'll back track a little and say Setoguchi won't score 30, but realistically if Marleau doesn't come back obviously Setoguchi will get better ice time. So 25 goals is not out of the realm of possibilities. Imagine if our goal production this season dropped from 44 (that of Marleau) to 25 (that of Seto), so by 20 goals. Now look at the top eight in the Western Conference standings. San Jose's goals for (264) minus 20 = 244. Aside from Chicago and Vancouver the other five teams had 244 or less and made it into the playoffs. Everybody likes to use Detroit as the golden example right? 229!
All changes to the lineup have the potential to make changes in goals for or goals against. Usually the best measure is goal differential rather than straight goals for. Not an argument about Patty/Seto, just to get to the point that is more accurate.

Detroit was a special case as their coach assumed that they wouldn't be as effective offensively and had them play with a more defensive posture as a team. It not only knocked down their goals for, it knocked down their differential. I don't particularly care for the choice by Babcock for their team as I view teams as more competitive when the coach puts a little more faith in the players.

One oversight on your part is that Seto may come close to supplanting Patty's numbers, but then who replaces Seto's numbers, etc. It's a cascade effect and you take little hits down through the lines as a slightly less effective player moves up a spot.

Just some more info for the debate regarding PK:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_...team=S.J&pos=F

Please look at the +-ON/60 column, about the same as last year for Patty and Pavs. Patty was #16 in the league this year, Pavs just below #20 . . . and then you have Malhotra who was waaaayyyy down the scale, with worse numbers than Grier's last year.

The above is an issue of goal differential.


Last edited by SJeasy: 05-04-2010 at 04:26 PM.
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05-04-2010, 04:21 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by param View Post
You realize when Zetterberg broke out into elite status in 05-06 he went 39 goals (05-06) - 33 goals (06-07) - 43 goals (07-08) - 31 goals (08-09). This past season was his first non-30 goal year since 03-04.

Kopitar has had two 30 goal years in four seasons, squeezing in a 27 goal (I suppose 3 goals makes ALL the difference) season in between.

Kane and Toews also fill the roles as playmakers on the team, we don't expect that from Seto. His job would be to get open or stay in front of the net.

Datsyuk, here's how his last 5 season follow: 30 goals (03-04) - 28 goals (04-05) - 27 goals (05-06) - 31 goals (06-07) - 32 goals (07-08) - 27 goals (08-09). Again like Zetterberg, Kane, Kopitar, and Toews, Datsyuk is heavily relied on to create plays. And again, that's something we don't expect from Setoguchi.

Fine I'll back track a little and say Setoguchi won't score 30, but realistically if Marleau doesn't come back obviously Setoguchi will get better ice time. So 25 goals is not out of the realm of possibilities. Imagine if our goal production this season dropped from 44 (that of Marleau) to 25 (that of Seto), so by 20 goals. Now look at the top eight in the Western Conference standings. San Jose's goals for (264) minus 20 = 244. Aside from Chicago and Vancouver the other five teams had 244 or less and made it into the playoffs. Everybody likes to use Detroit as the golden example right? 229!
My point in bringing those players up was to emphasize that 30+ goals is a hell of a lot, and puts you in an elite tier. I think you got that point... as for the production drop of 20, I think you're proving my point there, too. Sure, we'll still make the playoffs, but you go from being the top goalscoring team in the conference to being "in the top half".

And that's just assuming that this is a straight substitution. What you really have it a waterfall effect - setoguchi replaces marleau as a lower scorer, and someone else (Couture?) has to replace Setoguchi's totals. Net effect of weakening more than one line. We'd probably see another 5-10 goals come off just from that effect.

Point being - Marleau would be a huge loss. We might have to take it on the chin, but I won't be happy. It will suck. "Damn it Marleau, why couldn't you step up in the playoffs? You played your way out of here." OR, "Damn it, this cap situation sucks and I'm sad to see him go." All depends on the next 2 months.

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05-04-2010, 04:27 PM
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With Patty, Nabby and Blake gone, that still doesn't free up a lot of money. The Sharks could use a decent goalie and another defenseman. With Couture up all next year and Seto getting back on track, Marleau's goals this year can be covered. Manny won't be taking a discount next year and he should be re-signed so some money needs to be set aside for that as well as Pavs's and Seto's raises. Would like to see JT get a contract extension as well.
it free's up roughly 14 million in salary.

so lets say pavs gets 5 million at the most, 9 million left, malhotra will not get more then 1.5 million (don't care what he brings to the table on energy or versatility), so 8 million left, seto 3 or 4 million, 4 million left. nichol about a million, 3 million left.

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05-04-2010, 04:32 PM
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Scoring a bunch of goals in the regular season is nice but not totally necessary. The Sharks don't need to be in 1st place every year. They just need to make the playoffs and have guys that can *step up* when it matters.

Even if Patty's goals aren't totally replaced, not sure if that will affect the Sharks standing in the regular season all that much.

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05-04-2010, 04:36 PM
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it free's up roughly 14 million in salary.

so lets say pavs gets 5 million at the most, 9 million left, malhotra will not get more then 1.5 million (don't care what he brings to the table on energy or versatility), so 8 million left, seto 3 or 4 million, 4 million left. nichol about a million, 3 million left.
Not the correct way of thinking about this because you have to take into consideration the money we are already paying them. So it's not 5 mil for Pavs, but 3ish for his raise, and same with the rest.

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05-04-2010, 04:36 PM
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Just a small point about goal differertial with all the changes to the Sharks team, it was supposed to be better. For one, it certainly didn't add points in the standings. It may add playoff effectiveness. I look at the Avs this year as weaker than the Ducks last year so getting out of the first round isn't really a good measure. Getting past Detroit is.

08-09
GF 257
GA 204
Diff=53

09-10
GF 264
GA 215
Diff=49

Thats a -4 in differential for all of the lineup changes. That is not a lot.

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05-04-2010, 05:35 PM
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My point in bringing those players up was to emphasize that 30+ goals is a hell of a lot, and puts you in an elite tier. I think you got that point... as for the production drop of 20, I think you're proving my point there, too. Sure, we'll still make the playoffs, but you go from being the top goalscoring team in the conference to being "in the top half".

And that's just assuming that this is a straight substitution. What you really have it a waterfall effect - setoguchi replaces marleau as a lower scorer, and someone else (Couture?) has to replace Setoguchi's totals. Net effect of weakening more than one line. We'd probably see another 5-10 goals come off just from that effect.

Point being - Marleau would be a huge loss. We might have to take it on the chin, but I won't be happy. It will suck. "Damn it Marleau, why couldn't you step up in the playoffs? You played your way out of here." OR, "Damn it, this cap situation sucks and I'm sad to see him go." All depends on the next 2 months.
If you think playing Couture more will weaken this team you need to watch more hockey. He is ready.

As for Marleau he's a 30-35 goal scorer with 1 or 2 40+ goal years in him, and he's used up one of those years. How do you know he won't mail it in and give us 19 goals? Think about it career year in a contract year? We should have traded him when he tanked under Ron Wilson. Also if we resign him he'll get a NMC/NTC what will we do with him when he tanks? Marleau is a good player only in someone else's shadow (Thornton's) and not much better than Seto or Pavs, I'll take those two over him any day.

With Marleau gone we'll lose 44 goals,
-44 - Marleau is gone
-34 - (44-10) - (+10) Seto gives us 30 goals (he can do more)
-23 - (34-11) - (+11) Couture plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year
-19 - (23-4) - (+4) McGinn plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year

Without making any changes we lose 19 goals, but keep in mind that Pavs, Clowe, Heatley, Thornton all scored less goals this year than expected / previous years AND this year was a career year for Marleau and you won't know if he'll score this many again ever.

If we lose 19 goals and Thornton, Heatley, Clowe, Pavs all are able to chip in 5 goals each (which is a very reasonable expectation if you look at their history / injury problems this year), you have more goals than this year.

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05-04-2010, 05:51 PM
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Everyone seems to be talking about goal production when referring to the value of Patrick Marleau and yes he has had a few 30 goal seasons and a lot of 20 goal seasons, but the reason he leads this poll goes way beyond that. he has played with players like: Thornton, Nolan, Damphousse, and a few other worthy mentions and still hasn't seemed to learn much fro them about becoming elite and a real leader. The detroit series he botched a few years ago is a great example of what kind of player he is. He scored a ton of goals in those playoffs but when he faced Detroit he looked like one of the worst players in the league. He was abused by Datsyuk in every way possible that series. He was out of position, not skating hard enough, and not doing the work to get the offense started... and it doesn't seem like anything has changed. Also, has anyone else ever noticed what a poor passer/playmaker he is? Hell, that is why he is way better on the wing with someone else setting up the play. He used make so many passes to nobody or the opposing team on clear scoring chances and odd man rushes it drove me crazy. Unreliable.

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05-04-2010, 05:55 PM
  #100
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Originally Posted by dumpnchase View Post
If you think playing Couture more will weaken this team you need to watch more hockey. He is ready.

As for Marleau he's a 30-35 goal scorer with 1 or 2 40+ goal years in him, and he's used up one of those years. How do you know he won't mail it in and give us 19 goals? Think about it career year in a contract year? We should have traded him when he tanked under Ron Wilson. Also if we resign him he'll get a NMC/NTC what will we do with him when he tanks? Marleau is a good player only in someone else's shadow (Thornton's) and not much better than Seto or Pavs, I'll take those two over him any day.

With Marleau gone we'll lose 44 goals,
-44 - Marleau is gone
-34 - (44-10) - (+10) Seto gives us 30 goals (he can do more)
-23 - (34-11) - (+11) Couture plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year
-19 - (23-4) - (+4) McGinn plays the entire season and scores the same number as this season, just over an entire year

Without making any changes we lose 19 goals, but keep in mind that Pavs, Clowe, Heatley, Thornton all scored less goals this year than expected / previous years AND this year was a career year for Marleau and you won't know if he'll score this many again ever.

If we lose 19 goals and Thornton, Heatley, Clowe, Pavs all are able to chip in 5 goals each (which is a very reasonable expectation if you look at their history / injury problems this year), you have more goals than this year.
Yea...what he said

Lets be realistic. Everyone will agree that offense isn't something the Sharks really need to worry about, even if Marleau is gone. On the other hand you have Nabokov (who seems to sloping down a bit). We don't have a solid #2-3 Dman (you go from Boyle --> Vlasic --> Murray?). How bout dropping some cash on a guy like Zbynek Michalek or Dan Hamhuis. It seems like a logical step to not re-sign a forward who will earn at least 6 million, when the team has more pressing needs.

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