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05-07-2010, 01:19 PM
  #1
David Singleton
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Obvious Fantasy Trade with Capitals

To Washington (net of +3.75M to cap, +2 to roster- both before Hamhuis):

Jason Arnott (4.5M)
J.P. Dumont (4.0M)
Jordin Tootoo (1.25M)
Rights to Dan Hamhuis or Grebeshkov (priceless- lol)

To Nashville (net -3.75M to cap, -2 to roster):

Alexander Semin (6M)


Reasoning:

Nashville frees up salary from aging players while bringing in an elite-level forward to help address scoring issues (particularly on the PP). Of course, they take a risk in Semin due to his mercurial attitude and the fact he only has one year left on his current contract- but we would lose 2/4 after this/next season anyway and Dumont and Tootoo's roles have both been reduced.

Nashville then re-signs Hornqvist (2.25M), Bouillon (1.25), and Franson (1.0). Blum is promoted and backfill other positions with other R/UFAs. That should come up to about 45-46M. Increase the budget to 47-ish and re-sign Grebeshkov (or Hamhuis) instead of bringing Blum up.

Other than removing the mercurial Semin from their roster and potentially adding Dan Hamhuis, I'm not sure why Washington would do this. To be fair, I think Arnott and Dumont would help Washington more than losing Semin would hurt. I also think Tootoo would be a better fit for the more aggressive Capitals. Dan Hamhuis will likely be the biggest boon for Washington (perhaps after ridding themselves of Semin) and would make an interesting partner for Mike Green. Of course, they take on the additional cap hit too, but only for one year.

Edited to add: One Capital's blogger's opinion of Semin.

Discussion Point(s):

Putting aside obvious NM/TC issues, can the trade be massaged in such a way to make it a win/win for both teams?


Last edited by David Singleton: 05-07-2010 at 01:51 PM.
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05-07-2010, 01:34 PM
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You can't replace one talented with 4 average players. From a Caps perspective it totally screws the line combos, plus they would have a hard time making room for that many players. If a trade like that would happen it would have to be about 1 or 2 players and several picks/prospects.
Besides, I think the only thing the Caps would want to talk about would be defense. I doubt very much that AO is looking to play on a line with Arnott and Dumont.

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05-07-2010, 01:37 PM
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That is absolutely horrendous for the Caps.

"here, take a bunch of our overpaid, underperforming geezers, and give us your young, 40 goal scoring sniper. Oh, and PS, you'll be taking on salary."

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05-07-2010, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
To Washington (net of +3.75M to cap, +2 to roster- both before Hamhuis):

Jason Arnott (4.5M)
J.P. Dumont (4.0M)
Jordin Tootoo (1.25M)
Rights to Dan Hamhuis or Grebeshkov (priceless- lol)

To Nashville (net -3.75M to cap, -2 to roster):

Alexander Semin (6M)

Discussion Point(s):

Putting aside obvious NM/TC issues, can the trade be massaged in such a way to make it a win/win for both teams?

Oy.... No offense, Washington won't touch that unless it's Suter or Weber

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05-07-2010, 01:39 PM
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David Singleton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlsg View Post
You can't replace one talented with 4 average players. From a Caps perspective it totally screws the line combos, plus they would have a hard time making room for that many players. If a trade like that would happen it would have to be about 1 or 2 players and several picks/prospects.
Besides, I think the only thing the Caps would want to talk about would be defense. I doubt very much that AO is looking to play on a line with Arnott and Dumont.
Don't necessarily disagree, and I haven't contacted my HockeyIndependent counterparts that blog about the Capitals either.

They (meaning the bloggers) want to part with Semin fairly badly. The roster increase shouldn't be too bad as Washington does not have too many players under contract for next season.

Defensively, this does add Dan Hamhuis to their blueline. He, on paper, would appear to be an excellent ying to Mike Green's yang.

Arnott and Dumont are certainly less skilled than Semin, but are better at couple of different aspects than Semin. They should certainly be of some use- but I don't disagree on your overall points.

Thanks Jay.

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05-07-2010, 01:42 PM
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I see this as a one year chemistry experiment for both teams- as they both have to make that decision next year with most of those players anyway.

I know it appears bad for Washington, that's why I wanted your folks to make it better for them (minus Weber or Suter per my issues in the Minny trade thread).

Swap Erat and Dumont, etc.

Just a fun discussion.

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05-07-2010, 01:55 PM
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BigFatCat999
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Nashville throws in there 1st rounder. The draft last year will ease the pain of this. Draft rights

In addition, Washington throws in the rights to some UFAs they don't want or some RFAs.

Either way, this is horrible simply because Semin is at the level of a Weber-Suter trade discussion. The cost to trade him hurts more than getting him.

Semin is a 40 goal scorer. Expensive. Nashville would gleefully lose Arnott and Dumont. Hamhuis is gone anyway. Nashville is not really losing anything of value. That's why I say 1st rounder. Nashville can afford this year to lose it. Last years draft had three 1st rounders in talent in the first 3 picks. Nashville will need a center back unless they have a center in the system they believe in (Wilson, O'Reilly, Spaling) I could go nuts and cling to my hockey binkies who both happen to play for Washington, (The cousin, and Ray's kid) And since Washington IS getting two forwards.....

Washington has a metric ton of cap space to swallow salaries.

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05-07-2010, 01:59 PM
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David Singleton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Either way, this is horrible simply because Semin is at the level of a Weber-Suter trade discussion. The cost to trade him hurts more than getting him.
Outside Hossa-Heatley, elite-level players aren't typically swapped.

Can we entice Washington enough, and safely enough, to make the trade worthwhile? Even before that, is Semin a player that Nashville would like to have?

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05-07-2010, 02:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
Outside Hossa-Heatley, elite-level players aren't typically swapped.

Can we entice Washington enough, and safely enough, to make the trade worthwhile? Even before that, is Semin a player that Nashville would like to have?
Question becomes could the Preds do to Washington what Colorado did to Boston for the Ray Bourque deal?

1) Does Washington want to get rid of Semin?

2) Does Semin want to leave town?

3) Who would be making the offer, Nashville or Washington? It's a matter of Leverage.

4) How bad does Washington want Hamhuis?

I know that this is a theoretical exercise but still, this is a hard one.

Dumont, Erat, 1st, rights to Hamhuis for Semin and and rights to forward RFA.

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05-07-2010, 02:06 PM
  #10
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Let's look at lines if we made that trade.

Legwand, Wilson, Goc, Smithson, O'Reilly at center
Erat, Sully, Hornqvist, Semin, Ward, Spaling, Boyd, Thuresson, Belak at wing

Line makeup could be:

Legwand/Erat/Semin
Wilson/Hornqvist/Sully
Goc/Ward/Smithson
Spaling/Boyd/Thuresson

O'Reilly and Belak as 13 and 14 spots with O'Reilly being swapped with anyone on the 4th line at any point.

Interesting to say the least. Not sure I'm sold on the third and fourth lines as much as I was happy with them this year.

If Semin stays healthy, as do the other top 6, it's not a bad top two lines. Depth to me becomes a serious issue. We could also swap Semin and Sully and have a line like the 9-10-11 line from a few years back with a pretty nice second line of a sniper, a clean up guy and a set up guy.

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05-07-2010, 02:08 PM
  #11
glenngineer
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I wouldn't give up Erat. Arnott going the other way would make me a lot happier. Say what you will about Erat, not you personally but in general, Erat hustles and shows up in the playoffs. It would also alleviate the captain issue if you ship Arnott off.

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05-07-2010, 02:12 PM
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BigFatCat999
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
I wouldn't give up Erat. Arnott going the other way would make me a lot happier. Say what you will about Erat, not you personally but in general, Erat hustles and shows up in the playoffs. It would also alleviate the captain issue if you ship Arnott off.

That's the rub, you have to hurt to get this deal done. Erat and the 1st are the incitements. Arnott is expendable. Hamhuis is gone anyway

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05-07-2010, 02:12 PM
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David Singleton
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Question becomes could the Preds do to Washington what Colorado did to Boston for the Ray Bourque deal?

1) Does Washington want to get rid of Semin?

2) Does Semin want to leave town?


3) Who would be making the offer, Nashville or Washington? It's a matter of Leverage.

4) How bad does Washington want Hamhuis?

I know that this is a theoretical exercise but still, this is a hard one.

Dumont, Erat, 1st, rights to Hamhuis for Semin and and rights to forward RFA.
Semin only signed a one year contract last time (Edit: confirmed). Given their "metric ton of cap room" (thanks BFC), I speculate that one side or the other wants to part ways.

I stress that the latter is complete speculation on my part.


Last edited by David Singleton: 05-07-2010 at 02:35 PM.
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05-07-2010, 02:15 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
That's the rub, you have to hurt to get this deal done. Erat and the 1st are the incitements. Arnott is expendable. Hamhuis is gone anyway
I'd hate to lose Erat. Arnott must be included. Swap Dumont for Erat if you wish, but Arnott must stay.

Good discussion.

So, does it make Nashville better next season and potentially help us long term hold onto Weber and Suter?

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05-07-2010, 02:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
I'd hate to lose Erat. Arnott must be included. Swap Dumont for Erat if you wish, but Arnott must stay.

Good discussion.

So, does it make Nashville better next season and potentially help us long term hold onto Weber and Suter?
Well, if there is a strife with the caps and Semin it's a possibility. Also Semin is on the last year of his contract.

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05-07-2010, 02:38 PM
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David Singleton
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Well, if there is a strife with the caps and Semin it's a possibility. Also Semin is on the last year of his contract.
I've edited the post above as I've confirmed that Semin is on a one year contract (essentially to get him to UFA status).

Last year of a one year contract.

His prior contract was a two year contract.

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05-07-2010, 02:40 PM
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Additional Thought

Would the addition of Semin (assuming he's re-signed obviously) positively influence Radulov on returning to Nashville to fulfill his final year on his ELC as soon as his KHL contract is up?

(Assuming that's desirable on Nashville's part, of course.)

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05-07-2010, 03:06 PM
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The other thing about Semin and his contract status with Washington is they have to sign Backstrom to a long term deal. I believe is he a RFA this coming off season so do you spend the money on Backstrom or try to keep Semin. At some point, even with deep pockets, cap room runs out and you have to choose. Backstrom should get around $6 million a season or thereabouts. Combine that with the contracts of Ovie and Green that's $20 million about to be wrapped up in 3 players. Add Semin to that last at at least what he's making now and that's $26 million in 4 players. Is that something Washington wants to do?

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05-07-2010, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
Would the addition of Semin (assuming he's re-signed obviously) positively influence Radulov on returning to Nashville to fulfill his final year on his ELC as soon as his KHL contract is up?

(Assuming that's desirable on Nashville's part, of course.)
Radulov is coming back, he HAS to, IF he wants to play on the Russian national team. Semin is not a factor and frankly will hurt in keeping Radulov because Semin IS on the last year of his contract and will be looking for a pay raise for his 6 million dollar contract. All of this hurts the chances of re-signing Weber and Suter.

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05-07-2010, 03:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Singleton View Post
To Washington (net of +3.75M to cap, +2 to roster- both before Hamhuis):

Jason Arnott (4.5M)
J.P. Dumont (4.0M)
Jordin Tootoo (1.25M)
Rights to Dan Hamhuis or Grebeshkov (priceless- lol)

To Nashville (net -3.75M to cap, -2 to roster):

Alexander Semin (6M)


Reasoning:

Nashville frees up salary from aging players while bringing in an elite-level forward to help address scoring issues (particularly on the PP). Of course, they take a risk in Semin due to his mercurial attitude and the fact he only has one year left on his current contract- but we would lose 2/4 after this/next season anyway and Dumont and Tootoo's roles have both been reduced.

Nashville then re-signs Hornqvist (2.25M), Bouillon (1.25), and Franson (1.0). Blum is promoted and backfill other positions with other R/UFAs. That should come up to about 45-46M. Increase the budget to 47-ish and re-sign Grebeshkov (or Hamhuis) instead of bringing Blum up.

Other than removing the mercurial Semin from their roster and potentially adding Dan Hamhuis, I'm not sure why Washington would do this. To be fair, I think Arnott and Dumont would help Washington more than losing Semin would hurt. I also think Tootoo would be a better fit for the more aggressive Capitals. Dan Hamhuis will likely be the biggest boon for Washington (perhaps after ridding themselves of Semin) and would make an interesting partner for Mike Green. Of course, they take on the additional cap hit too, but only for one year.

Edited to add: One Capital's blogger's opinion of Semin.

Discussion Point(s):

Putting aside obvious NM/TC issues, can the trade be massaged in such a way to make it a win/win for both teams?
From a longtime Caps fan perspective its not awful.

But it would only happen if you take Dumont out.

I would LOVE the Caps to get Arnott/Tootoo for Semin. The Caps do have need of a physical player like Tootoo and a 2nd line center and we are overflowing with top 6 wingers.

Semin makes $6 million and is a UFA at years end. He has turned down a multiyear offer in order to test the market. And this is on a team he is comfortable with (he barely speaks English) that has his best friend (Ovy) and other Russian players to help him.

If you guys make a trade like this you better expect Semin will be gone after this year.

If the Caps trade Semin they will not be looking to take on salary. They need a top 4 dman and a #2 center and cannot afford to get both if they keep Semin or trade him without addressing those positions. In the initial offer here the rights to Hamhuis would be worthless since we wouldn't be able to sign him.

Also we need to get rid of top 6 wingers not add to them in Dumont (he is not cut out for 3rd and 4th line duties)

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05-07-2010, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Question becomes could the Preds do to Washington what Colorado did to Boston for the Ray Bourque deal?

1) Does Washington want to get rid of Semin?

2) Does Semin want to leave town?

3) Who would be making the offer, Nashville or Washington? It's a matter of Leverage.

4) How bad does Washington want Hamhuis?

I know that this is a theoretical exercise but still, this is a hard one.

Dumont, Erat, 1st, rights to Hamhuis for Semin and and rights to forward RFA.
This is close but you'd have to swap out Dumont for Arnott.

The Caps are most likely looking to move Semin along with Fleischman (RFA).

It would be even better if you take out Erat and put in Tootoo.

Again the Caps have too many top 6 forwards and not enough quality bottom 6 forwards.

But the Caps could probably do better if they trade both those guys separately.

Its not like the NHL is overflowing with 40 goal scorers (and potential 100pt players) in Semin. If you guys watch this kid play at the top of his game it will simply astonish you. His wrister is awe inspiring as is his toe drag move.

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05-07-2010, 04:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
From a longtime Caps fan perspective its not awful.

But it would only happen if you take Dumont out.

I would LOVE the Caps to get Arnott/Tootoo for Semin. The Caps do have need of a physical player like Tootoo and a 2nd line center and we are overflowing with top 6 wingers.

Semin makes $6 million and is a UFA at years end. He has turned down a multiyear offer in order to test the market. And this is on a team he is comfortable with (he barely speaks English) that has his best friend (Ovy) and other Russian players to help him.

If you guys make a trade like this you better expect Semin will be gone after this year.

If the Caps trade Semin they will not be looking to take on salary. They need a top 4 dman and a #2 center and cannot afford to get both if they keep Semin or trade him without addressing those positions. In the initial offer here the rights to Hamhuis would be worthless since we wouldn't be able to sign him.

Also we need to get rid of top 6 wingers not add to them in Dumont (he is not cut out for 3rd and 4th line duties)
How can the Caps NOT afford anything? They have a TON of cap space and open roster spots. Washington has $20 in cap space for 10 open roster spots. You need a backup goalie, 1-2 defenseman, and 7-8 forwards with Semin. Backstrom and Fleischman are RFAs and won't be as painful to re-sign than if they are UFAs. Unless Washington is under a self imposed cap they can easily take on this and build up a 4th and fill the 3rd line with your RFAs

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05-07-2010, 04:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
How can the Caps NOT afford anything? They have a TON of cap space and open roster spots. Washington has $20 in cap space for 10 open roster spots. You need a backup goalie, 1-2 defenseman, and 7-8 forwards with Semin. Backstrom and Fleischman are RFAs and won't be as painful to re-sign than if they are UFAs. Unless Washington is under a self imposed cap they can easily take on this and build up a 4th and fill the 3rd line with your RFAs
Backstrom will get around $6 million even though he's a RFA. That leaves around $14 million for 9 spots. Not as easy as you think at the end of the day. I'd also rather have Backstrom than Semin any day of the week.

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05-07-2010, 04:04 PM
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Just came to mind. As good as Semin is in the regular season, he pulls a bigger disappearing act that Arnott did this year. I think I'll pass on Semin and his $6 million salary for one year.

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05-07-2010, 04:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobRouse View Post
This is close but you'd have to swap out Dumont for Arnott.

The Caps are most likely looking to move Semin along with Fleischman (RFA).

It would be even better if you take out Erat and put in Tootoo.

Again the Caps have too many top 6 forwards and not enough quality bottom 6 forwards.

But the Caps could probably do better if they trade both those guys separately.

Its not like the NHL is overflowing with 40 goal scorers (and potential 100pt players) in Semin. If you guys watch this kid play at the top of his game it will simply astonish you. His wrister is awe inspiring as is his toe drag move.
So Washington wants grit. Would Washington be willing to take on a young defenseman or prospect as an add on to the trade?

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