Quality of shots against will work wonders to diminish a goalie's save percentage. There is an obvious inverse relationship with that and the quality of your team. The differences in our perspectives and where this conversation goes is probably academic from here. Suffice to say, I think his team's play is a large component of how a goalie arrives at his svpct., though obviously not as large as the goalie himself. Also, 89.5% over the course of a season means your goalie and your team are both stinking, so I think your point is probably valid here.
Reducing quality shots (as a percentage of total shots) will absolutely raise a goalie's save percentage. The problem there is that you're assuming that there isn't a strong correlation between quality shots and total shots...which I'm pretty convinced there is. A team that allows a ton of shots allows a correlating number of "quality shots." A team that allows fewer shots, allows a correlating number of (fewer) "quality shots." Now, that isn't going to be a perfect relationship, but it isn't too far off, IMO. So, that means in comparing goalies the SVPCT statistic is significantly more level than the GAA stat within some measure.
Very little variance in his performance from Florida to Vancouver (his best single season was in Florida), and Florida was simply a DREADFUL team in front of him defensively.
Now the reason I think there's a strong correlation actually has less to do with defenses, and more to do with how offenses work. Offenses have their approach and take their chances in predictable ways. So, they are the ones actually choosing when the shots are coming (obvious point) and given that those choices are predictable...you end up at having a more consistent distribution.
I think that, for better or worse, Holmgren is going to view Big Save Bob as our Price/Halak/Harding/Schneider and will probably sign a vet goalie during the offseason.
I have to say, while I have wanted to trade Roo for Price, his POs are changing my mind.
I think that, for better or worse, Holmgren is going to view Big Save Bob as our Price/Halak/Harding/Schneider and will probably sign a vet goalie during the offseason.
I have to say, while I have wanted to trade Roo for Price, his POs are changing my mind.
Are Halak's playoffs irritating you that we didn't cut a deal for him when he was offered to us in December?
If they really think this guy has high-end potential, then they should absolutely give up on any Price/Halak/Schneider type of thing, and focus on a veteran patch and see what happens.
Are Halak's playoffs irritating you that we didn't cut a deal for him when he was offered to us in December?
If they really think this guy has high-end potential, then they should absolutely give up on any Price/Halak/Schneider type of thing, and focus on a veteran patch and see what happens.
It's actually a bit easier for me because I picked him up in my keeper a few years ago, but I mean, if we had Halak, even without Carts and Gagne and Lappy, is there any doubt that we're at least at 2-2 right now if not 3-1?
And yeah, I agree with the 2nd part. I'm just personally skeptical whether he has that high-end potential, but if they think he does, makes no sense for them to trade for a young stud.
I think that, for better or worse, Holmgren is going to view Big Save Bob as our Price/Halak/Harding/Schneider and will probably sign a vet goalie during the offseason.
I have to say, while I have wanted to trade Roo for Price, his POs are changing my mind.
Our media seems to think Price is their target. A couple days ago in his chat Carchidi said Price and Bernier are at the top of their wish list. Gormely also has said Price and Bernier are their top choices. Panaccio also said they will be going after Price during his chat at the CSN playoff special before round 1 began. Anthony SanFillippo wrote a blog about Price that was mentioned here a while back. So unless they are all out to lunch or Holmgren has recently changed his mind it seems like he is still interested in going after a young potential franchise goalie.
Our media seems to think Price is their target. A couple days ago in his chat Carchidi said Price and Bernier are at the top of their wish list. Gormely also has said Price and Bernier are their top choices. Panaccio also said they will be going after Price during his chat at the CSN playoff special before round 1 began. Anthony SanFillippo wrote a blog about Price that was mentioned here a while back. So unless they are all out to lunch or Holmgren has recently changed his mind it seems like he is still interested in going after a young potential franchise goalie.
Yeah, but all of this was before the Bob Era began and besides, when is the Philly media ever right about what Flyers GMs are going to do?
Yeah, but all of this was before the Bob Era began and besides, when is the Philly media ever right about what Flyers GMs are going to do?
Bob was in their sights for a while though. I don't think Bob has the upside of Price and Bernier so maybe his signing isn't enough to change their mind. It's certainly possible that the media could be wrong, but they all seem to be saying the same thing so I am not sure how they'd all be wrong on it. That doesn't mean a deal will actually happen though because there are many factors involved. I don't even think Bernier gets dealt.
Our media seems to think Price is their target. A couple days ago in his chat Carchidi said Price and Bernier are at the top of their wish list. Gormely also has said Price and Bernier are their top choices. Panaccio also said they will be going after Price during his chat at the CSN playoff special before round 1 began. Anthony SanFillippo wrote a blog about Price that was mentioned here a while back. So unless they are all out to lunch or Holmgren has recently changed his mind it seems like he is still interested in going after a young potential franchise goalie.
Top choices we don't feel like paying for. If it's within our price range, we will make an offer. If it's not then we are just going to ignore it.
Honestly, I don't care either way at this point. If Montreal wants a top 6 forward still, Hartnell is their candidate. On a 30-30 year I wouldn't consider moving a top 6 forward for a back-up goaltender regardless of Price's potential. Hartnell has played his way out, and I have a sneaky suspicion Montreal was one of those teams Holmgren referred at the STH Meetings.
By the way, I wouldn't listen to half of the nonsense about values Montreal fans are throwing around on the trade board. It'll just rot your brain.
Top choices we don't feel like paying for. If it's within our price range, we will make an offer. If it's not then we are just going to ignore it.
Honestly, I don't care either way at this point. If Montreal wants a top 6 forward still, Hartnell is their candidate. On a 30-30 year I wouldn't consider moving a top 6 forward for a back-up goaltender regardless of Price's potential. Hartnell has played his way out, and I have a sneaky suspicion Montreal was one of those teams Holmgren referred at the STH Meetings.
By the way, I wouldn't listen to half of the nonsense about values Montreal fans are throwing around on the trade board. It'll just rot your brain.
Top choices you don't like feeling paying for, but we have no idea what Holmgren would. If they are really his top choices then my guess he is willing to pay for them, the question is how high he is willing to go and what kind of return Gauthier/Lombardi feel are fair for their goalies.
You are responding as if you are the GM and you're not. It's possible Montreal could have been interested in Hartnell. I have no idea. I'd be surprised if they took him in return, but it wouldn't be the first time I was surprised by a trade.
I'm not offended by their values and you shouldn't take it too seriously. It's possible they could be overvaluing their goalies and the actual return would be less, but I can understand where they are coming from. If a Price/Bernier/Rask or even Markstrom was ours we wouldn't want to deal them either unless we were getting the cliched "mass overpayment." Price is their JVR/Giroux, just at a different position. Fans of all teams tend to place significant value their young players with huge potential. I don't think Habs fans saying it would take a JVR/Giroux to get Price is any more crazy than us saying JVR/Giroux are untouchable.
I think that, for better or worse, Holmgren is going to view Big Save Bob as our Price/Halak/Harding/Schneider and will probably sign a vet goalie during the offseason.
I have to say, while I have wanted to trade Roo for Price, his POs are changing my mind.
I know for a fact that he is false.
Flyers already have there offseason plan ready to go.
Top choices you don't like feeling paying for, but we have no idea what Holmgren would. If they are really his top choices then my guess he is willing to pay for them, the question is how high he is willing to go and what kind of return Gauthier/Lombardi feel are fair for their goalies.
You are responding as if you are the GM and you're not. It's possible Montreal could have been interested in Hartnell. I have no idea. I'd be surprised if they took him in return, but it wouldn't be the first time I was surprised by a trade.
I'm not offended by their values and you shouldn't take it too seriously. It's possible they could be overvaluing their goalies and the actual return would be less, but I can understand where they are coming from. If a Price/Bernier/Rask or even Markstrom was ours we wouldn't want to deal them either unless we were getting the cliched "mass overpayment." Price is their JVR/Giroux, just at a different position. Fans of all teams tend to place significant value their young players with huge potential. I don't think Habs fans saying it would take a JVR/Giroux to get Price is any more crazy than us saying JVR/Giroux are untouchable.
Honestly, I agree with you. If I were stuck in a situation where I had to choose between JVR and Giroux while at the mercy of the market in terms of return for whoever I did move, I would be absolutely miserable, arrogant, and defensive.
Still, the market coupled with their position has absolutely screwed them. That's not to say I think Price is anywhere near a sure thing as JVR or Giroux, but he's got tons of talent. He'd only be an asset here in Philly.
That said, seeing as how the goaltending is viewed here in Philly (whether you agree with me or not) I can't see us basing our offseason failure/success on whether or not we acquire a Price, Bernier, or Schneider. With JVR/Giroux it's different. They're two talented forwards among what is normally 6. That makes up 1/3rd of your offense. On the other hand, they have to stellar goaltenders, and you can only really use one of them. 2/1sts doesn't really work.
Do I understand what they're going through and why they want so much? Yeah, I honestly can even if I don't see Price as safe or important as Giroux or JVR.
Do I feel bad for them? Nope. If their misfortune helps us become a better team then so be it. If it doesn't, then oh well. I'm not going to lose sleep over it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sa cyred
Then what do you think they are gonna do?
Being honest, I think the chance they go after Price or Halak is 80% not true. I dont see Homer or the Flyers doing it.
I agree with this. The only young goalie of that magnitude I see having a reasonable shot at ending up in Philly is Schneider.
Honestly, I agree with you. If I were stuck in a situation where I had to choose between JVR and Giroux while at the mercy of the market in terms of return for whoever I did move, I would be absolutely miserable, arrogant, and defensive.
Still, the market coupled with their position has absolutely screwed them. That's not to say I think Price is anywhere near a sure thing as JVR or Giroux, but he's got tons of talent. He'd only be an asset here in Philly.
That said, seeing as how the goaltending is viewed here in Philly (whether you agree with me or not) I can't see us basing our offseason failure/success on whether or not we acquire a Price, Bernier, or Schneider. With JVR/Giroux it's different. They're two talented forwards among what is normally 6. That makes up 1/3rd of your offense. On the other hand, they have to stellar goaltenders, and you can only really use one of them. 2/1sts doesn't really work.
Do I understand what they're going through and why they want so much? Yeah, I honestly can even if I don't see Price as safe or important as Giroux or JVR.
Do I feel bad for them? Nope. If their misfortune helps us become a better team then so be it. If it doesn't, then oh well. I'm not going to lose sleep over it.
Good post. Sums up the Flyers position pretty well IMO.
I think that between Bob and Eriksson we have gone from dreadful in net to promising to some degree. I think one of these guys makes the pros, but of course to what degree of success is the question. Right now Halak is going nowhere, and Price has not really been good enough to justify flipping a Giroux for him. Harding is OK but I think we should be hoping to do better than that. Keeping that in mind I think i like this approach better than taking what in my mind is a massive risk on Price for what he would cost.
Bernier is simply not an option. LA is not moving him for anything of reason.
I think that between Bob and Eriksson we have gone from dreadful in net to promising to some degree. I think one of these guys makes the pros, but of course to what degree of success is the question. Right now Halak is going nowhere, and Price has not really been good enough to justify flipping a Giroux for him. Harding is OK but I think we should be hoping to do better than that. Keeping that in mind I think i like this approach better than taking what in my mind is a massive risk on Price for what he would cost.
Bernier is simply not an option. LA is not moving him for anything of reason.
Flyers already have there offseason plan ready to go.
I'm sure they would take either for a cheaper price -- likely cheaper than the Habs are willing to take -- but was your information prior to the signing of Bob? Cuz it just doesn't make a ton of sense to invest in a guy like that and then turn around and trade for another really young goalie (who will both cost assets and not be cheap contractually).
I like the idea of getting Price in here, but at this point it may make more sense to go with a more flexible situation that costs less (Turco, Ellis, whatever).
I'm sure they would take either for a cheaper price -- likely cheaper than the Habs are willing to take -- but was your information prior to the signing of Bob? Cuz it just doesn't make a ton of sense to invest in a guy like that and then turn around and trade for another really young goalie (who will both cost assets and not be cheap contractually).
I like the idea of getting Price in here, but at this point it may make more sense to go with a more flexible situation that costs less (Turco, Ellis, whatever).
I think it depends on how the Flyers view Bob. Everyone is assuming that they view him as our goalie of the future, but perhaps they don't.
I see it as one of two ways.
Either they view him as their goalie of the future in which case it makes more sense to sign a cheaper stop gap than giving up valuable assets for another young goalie.
Or his signing was depth move to fill an organizational weakness and adds another young promising prospect to the pool in case they fail to acquire one of their targets.
I think it depends on how the Flyers view Bob. Everyone is assuming that they view him as our goalie of the future, but perhaps they don't.
I see it as one of two ways.
Either they view him as their goalie of the future in which case it makes more sense to sign a cheaper stop gap than giving up valuable assets for another young goalie.
Or his signing was depth move to fill an organizational weakness and adds another young promising prospect to the pool in case they fail to acquire one of their targets.
They won't get a good look at him in a practice setting along with other members of the team until after the draft at the prospects camp.
So it's either they view him as that now or they don't.
Based on the way the organization has discussed him, I'm pretty sure they feel he can be their young prospect goalie. He won't make an immediate impact, but likely neither would Schneider or Bernier. Well, maybe they would, but they're not the kind of players you could count on to start a long season immediately without a failsafe unlike Price, who I would feel comfortable with.
They won't get a good look at him in a practice setting along with other members of the team until after the draft at the prospects camp.
So it's either they view him as that now or they don't.
Based on the way the organization has discussed him, I'm pretty sure they feel he can be their young prospect goalie. He won't make an immediate impact, but likely neither would Schneider or Bernier. Well, maybe they would, but they're not the kind of players you could count on to start a long season immediately without a failsafe unlike Price, who I would feel comfortable with.
Have there been any quotes from the organization about him?
Yeah if the Flyers were to go the young goalie route I'd be much more comfortable with someone with NHL experience like Price. I never thought they'd go for someone like Schneider because he is completely unproven unless they had him split time with Turco, but with Bob being signed there's not much reason to go that route. I was a bit surprised when the writers said they are high on Bernier since he is also unproven, although I do think he can be special so I guess that's the appeal. I'd be pretty thrilled if they ended up with him though. But like you said they'd need a failsafe like Turco or Ellis to go with him.
I just don't see us putting Bob in the number 2 spot with Price, etc as the starter. Two young goalies can do nothing but hurt you. It's a safer bet to go with a vet such as, Turco, Ellis, Mason.
I would like to add, I would love to have Price to be here. However I just don't see it happening. Not anymore.
The Flyers are going to have to do more in the offseason with the goaltender then what they have already done. They have helped bring some depth to the organization, but it is unproven at the NHL level, I dont believe that they will then go an get more unproven players (Schenider, Price, etc) they will hopefully do the smart thing and get a proven NHL veteran goaltender to man the ship for the next year or two and let Bob or the other prospects prove themselves in the AHL & SEL.
Your not going to bring Bob over and have him sit as a #2 and play 10 - 15 games a year, you also cant expect that an NHL rookie and NA rookie is going to have an easy time in the beginning.
So I see Bob and the other prospects battling for the job with the Phantoms and the Flyers have Turco, Ellis, etc as the #1 and possibly Backlund, Leighton or Boosh back to #2 duty.
Fans of all teams tend to place significant value their young players with huge potential. I don't think Habs fans saying it would take a JVR/Giroux to get Price is any more crazy than us saying JVR/Giroux are untouchable.
