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Old
05-12-2010, 08:05 AM
  #301
JSTAFF
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Not really...one of the key analytical points with Bobrovsky, which I'm pretty sure even Shafer has been guilty of: "His team sucked, but he posted a good SVPCT..." If his team sucked and he sucked, then his SVPCT would likely suck too.
It is a "Good" SVPCT, but in terms of the potential we are expecting from him, it isn't that good of a SVPCT.

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05-12-2010, 08:10 AM
  #302
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
Granted, we disagree on that point. However, it is still a long, long way from Chris and I saying they're team stats, and either of us saying that "the goalie is irrelevant in this equation". I know I didn't say that (FWIW I don't recall Chris saying it either, and doubt he would say that).
Actually, that's pretty much been Chris' point for months: goalies don't really matter, it's the skaters.

If SVPCT really was a "team stat" you wouldn't see dramatic swings in the statistic depending on who was playing goal for a team. If the team is influencing it--and, sure, they are a bit--it's marginal to the point of ignoring it in evaluating the goalies play based on that stat. Some goalies are better than others, and that's the stat where you see it manifest.

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It is, primarily. It is also a team stat, in a sense.
Is batting average a team stat because the rest of the batting order influences the type of pitches that the batter sees? No, the hitter still needs to hit 'em. Just like a goalie needs to stop the shots coming at him. No one helps him at that point.

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05-12-2010, 08:11 AM
  #303
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Originally Posted by JSTAFF View Post
It is a "Good" SVPCT, but in terms of the potential we are expecting from him, it isn't that good of a SVPCT.
Actually, for the KHL it appears to be a pretty good SVPCT. However, you're right that we have no idea how that will translate over here. But I guarantee you he doesn't get the contract he got if he posted an .883.

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05-12-2010, 08:29 AM
  #304
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Actually, that's pretty much been Chris' point for months: goalies don't really matter, it's the skaters.
Where have I ever said that goalies don't matter?

Of course they matter, but you make their potential impact on a game, whether good or bad, diminish when you ice a better team.

Having a goalie with some skill is important, but if you have a very good team, getting a goalie with great skill is redundant and a waste of assets if you're paying premium to acquire him and/or to keep him on the roster particularly because his impact is not as much as a skater.

Skaters impact every facet of the game including the goaltender's ability to do his job.

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05-12-2010, 08:54 AM
  #305
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Where have I ever said that goalies don't matter?

Of course they matter, but you make their potential impact on a game, whether good or bad, diminish when you ice a better team.

Having a goalie with some skill is important, but if you have a very good team, getting a goalie with great skill is redundant and a waste of assets if you're paying premium to acquire him and/or to keep him on the roster particularly because his impact is not as much as a skater.

Skaters impact every facet of the game including the goaltender's ability to do his job.
And goalies impact every shift of every skater on your bench.

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05-12-2010, 08:56 AM
  #306
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It's also note worthy that different goalies will bring out the good and bad about a team system and visa versa. We are a team that can right now clear rebounds but give a lot of shots up off the rush. That fits Leightons style quite well. On a team that can't clear rebounds he looked like garbage earlier in the year. Yes Reese is a GREAT goalie coach (thankfully), and has improved Leighton, but our style also fits him well.

Also note worthy- Pronger makes goalies on his team look good.

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05-12-2010, 05:17 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
And goalies impact every shift of every skater on your bench.
and fails to accomplish his job on a regular basis. the shutout is the equivalent of the end to end rush for a skater. the level of play by the majority of goalies in the league is just simply sub par. theres a handful of guys that are worth the money and the rest bleh. and then when you consider the money plus additional assets youd have to part with to acquire a guy and how few can perform at that level game in and game out and then year in and year out its the smarter move to build the hockey equivalent of a power hitting team. if you can develop a goalie hes an incredible assett but pinning all your hopes on a guy when theres maybe 6 guys out of all the guys drafted in the last twenty years who can effect the game the way a skater can well then its just too risky.

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05-12-2010, 06:59 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by captainpaxil View Post
and fails to accomplish his job on a regular basis. the shutout is the equivalent of the end to end rush for a skater. the level of play by the majority of goalies in the league is just simply sub par. theres a handful of guys that are worth the money and the rest bleh. and then when you consider the money plus additional assets youd have to part with to acquire a guy and how few can perform at that level game in and game out and then year in and year out its the smarter move to build the hockey equivalent of a power hitting team. if you can develop a goalie hes an incredible assett but pinning all your hopes on a guy when theres maybe 6 guys out of all the guys drafted in the last twenty years who can effect the game the way a skater can well then its just too risky.
It's impressive that you can type all this with your head in your butt. A goalie's job is not to get a shut out every game, the same way the defense's job isn't to get zero shots against every game, or for the forwards to score infinite goals.

An end-to-end rush is one goal, solely as a result of the skater's hard work. I'd say that's worth precisely one miracle save, not an entire shut out game.

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05-12-2010, 07:03 PM
  #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Actually, that's pretty much been Chris' point for months: goalies don't really matter, it's the skaters.

If SVPCT really was a "team stat" you wouldn't see dramatic swings in the statistic depending on who was playing goal for a team. If the team is influencing it--and, sure, they are a bit--it's marginal to the point of ignoring it in evaluating the goalies play based on that stat. Some goalies are better than others, and that's the stat where you see it manifest.
I would definitely agree that is the stat where you see it manifest the most.

Again, you're taking Chris's argument to the extreme before disproving it, essentially killing a straw man. He never said they don't matter, just that they aren't as important as a lot of people who romanticize the position think they do. I don't agree with most of what he says about it, but let's be fair here, he never said they don't matter.

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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Is batting average a team stat because the rest of the batting order influences the type of pitches that the batter sees? No, the hitter still needs to hit 'em. Just like a goalie needs to stop the shots coming at him. No one helps him at that point.
No, but RBI's are.

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05-12-2010, 07:49 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
I would definitely agree that is the stat where you see it manifest the most.

Again, you're taking Chris's argument to the extreme before disproving it, essentially killing a straw man. He never said they don't matter, just that they aren't as important as a lot of people who romanticize the position think they do. I don't agree with most of what he says about it, but let's be fair here, he never said they don't matter.
No, that's been his argument throughout much of the Halak and Price discussion. That you can plug-in-play goalies and get the same results. It's just not true.

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No, but RBI's are.
They are, but SVPCT is BA, not RBIs. GAA is RBIs.

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05-12-2010, 09:21 PM
  #311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
No, that's been his argument throughout much of the Halak and Price discussion. That you can plug-in-play goalies and get the same results. It's just not true.



They are, but SVPCT is BA, not RBIs. GAA is RBIs.
It isn't true, I agree completely. It will say however, that (IMO) it becomes less false as the strength of the defense increases (not only in terms of GAA, but also save percentage).


As for the GAA: RBI :: SVPCT: BA.....probably true, I was just making the point that there are stats that are composite individual/team stats.

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05-12-2010, 09:47 PM
  #312
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
It isn't true, I agree completely. It will say however, that (IMO) it becomes less false as the strength of the defense increases (not only in terms of GAA, but also save percentage).
Yes, but not much (if at all). Osgood didn't enjoy a significantly different SVPCT in Detroit than he did elsewhere (in fact he was pretty much dead-on the same). And if ever there was a team that protected the living crap out of their goalie, they were it.

I will also note that in the era of salary cap, goalies are actually MORE important than they were previously. Because the salary cap is distributing talent and there is a very real difference between a top 10 goalie and the rest... In the old days, you could spend on your skaters to mask your goalie deficiency (either by outscoring teams, or outdefending teams), much harder to do now.

Quote:
As for the GAA: RBI :: SVPCT: BA.....probably true, I was just making the point that there are stats that are composite individual/team stats.
There certainly are, but SVPCT isn't really much of a composite stat. If it was, you'd see some correlation between other team defense metrics, and it just isn't there.

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05-13-2010, 03:25 AM
  #313
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
It's impressive that you can type all this with your head in your butt. A goalie's job is not to get a shut out every game, the same way the defense's job isn't to get zero shots against every game, or for the forwards to score infinite goals.

An end-to-end rush is one goal, solely as a result of the skater's hard work. I'd say that's worth precisely one miracle save, not an entire shut out game.
no its that lesser standard your setting that has you confused. its not infinite points its 82. how many point pergame players are there? thats what it is to post a goals against less then 1 or a save% of .95. the amount of talent available is skewed the other way. its the huge dose of offense that shows how bad the average goaltender really is. when a skater gpes end to end hes just beaten the entire other team for a goalie to do the same thing is for all 5 skaters to post up and smoke a bowl with the linesman down in the offensive zone while the goalie faces 5 on none. thats what a miracle save is ever see 1 happen? me neither. a goalie is on the ice for 60 minutes but he plays in short spurts. the rest of the time hes just another dude watchin the game. how many mistakes a guy makes in a 30 second shift vs how many a goalie makes in a 6 second flurry. a great goalie can really impact a game but most of the guys playing now ? mehh.... not so much

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05-13-2010, 03:58 AM
  #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by captainpaxil View Post
no its that lesser standard your setting that has you confused.
No......

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Originally Posted by captainpaxil View Post
its not infinite points its 82. how many point pergame players are there? thats what it is to post a goals against less then 1 or a save% of .95. the amount of talent available is skewed the other way. its the huge dose of offense that shows how bad the average goaltender really is. when a skater gpes end to end hes just beaten the entire other team for a goalie to do the same thing is for all 5 skaters to post up and smoke a bowl with the linesman down in the offensive zone while the goalie faces 5 on none. thats what a miracle save is ever see 1 happen? me neither. a goalie is on the ice for 60 minutes but he plays in short spurts. the rest of the time hes just another dude watchin the game. how many mistakes a guy makes in a 30 second shift vs how many a goalie makes in a 6 second flurry. a great goalie can really impact a game but most of the guys playing now ? mehh.... not so much
.......it was that unreadable mass of crap that has me confused.

There are a lot of point-per-game players. There are precisely ZERO goalies with more than a couple games that have a GAA under 1. I can't even address the rest of that mess. Really and truly, with out an ounce of hyperbole, you are clueless.

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05-13-2010, 04:19 AM
  #315
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Well I assume Backlund will be the starter goalie in AHL next year so is this guy will have his place with Adirondack?

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05-13-2010, 04:21 AM
  #316
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so wait. the debate here is whether or not skaters have an influence on whether or not goalies make saves? wait. what? i had to read that again. thats the debate?!

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05-13-2010, 04:26 AM
  #317
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Originally Posted by Joe Big Bear View Post
Well I assume Backlund will be the starter goalie in AHL next year so is this guy will have his place with Adirondack?
Backlund doesn't have a contract for next season ... Bobrovsky, Stewart and potentially Riopel will battle it out.

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05-13-2010, 08:15 AM
  #318
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Originally Posted by I am The Mush View Post
It's impressive that you can type all this with your head in your butt.

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05-13-2010, 02:14 PM
  #319
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For those who do not want to read through the entire debate, a paraphrase:

What Chris believes:
-elite goalies are few and far between and that most goalies are comparable, much more so than teams to one another; therefore, it is a waste to spend an extra few million on a goalie that will put up similar numbers to a cheaper option and would rather use assets on skaters.

What Jester thinks Chris believes:
-goalies don't affect a game at all and everything is dictated by the skaters on the ice

What Jester believes:
-goalies are a combination of both their own skill (shown by SVPCT) and the skill that surrounds them (GAA). *insert a million stats to prove his point here, after ignoring all stats that could possibly poke a hole in his hypothesis, of course*

What Chris thinks Jester believes:
-goalies are all that matters and the team in front of them does not make them what they are at all

What I am the Mush believes:
-goalies are awesome, has he mentioned that he plays goalie?

What Agrudez believes about Jester:
-Jester always brings very poignant arguments to the table and almost always supports them with very compelling statistics, but has a physical inability to admit when he is wrong, perhaps a pre-existing condition or a hereditary trait?

What Agrudez believes about Chris:
-Chris obviously knows what he is talking about, but often times sees things through a different tint of the glass than everyone else. Perhaps Paul Holmgren holds his **** when he pees?

What Agrudez belives about I am the Mush:
-Mush fairly accesses situations; however, he often expresses his opinions in a derogatory way, especially if you offend his grammar sensibility. Perhaps he has Vietnam flashbacks of 3rd grade English class?

What those three probably now believe about Agrudez:
-What a *****

The thread war is now resolved as everyone involved has found a common enemy.

Now, how about that Russian goaltender guy?

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05-13-2010, 02:21 PM
  #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
For those who do not want to read through the entire debate, a paraphrase:

What Chris believes:
-elite goalies are few and far between and that most goalies are comparable, much more so than teams to one another; therefore, it is a waste to spend an extra few million on a goalie that will put up similar numbers to a cheaper option and would rather use assets on skaters.

What Jester thinks Chris believes:
-goalies don't affect a game at all and everything is dictated by the skaters on the ice

What Jester believes:
-goalies are a combination of both their own skill (shown by SVPCT) and the skill that surrounds them (GAA). *insert a million stats to prove his point here, after ignoring all stats that could possibly poke a hole in his hypothesis, of course*

What Chris thinks Jester believes:
-goalies are all that matters and the team in front of them does not make them what they are at all

What I am the Mush believes:
-goalies are awesome, has he mentioned that he plays goalie?


What Agrudez believes about Jester:
-Jester always brings very poignant arguments to the table and almost always supports them with very compelling statistics, but has a physical inability to admit when he is wrong, perhaps a pre-existing condition or a hereditary trait?


What Agrudez believes about Chris:
-Chris obviously knows what he is talking about, but often times sees things through a different tint of the glass than everyone else. Perhaps Paul Holmgren holds his **** when he pees?

What Agrudez belives about I am the Mush:
-Mush fairly accesses situations; however, he often expresses his opinions in a derogatory way, especially if you offend his grammar sensibility. Perhaps he has Vietnam flashbacks of 3rd grade English class?


What those three probably now believe about Agrudez:
-What a *****

The thread war is now resolved as everyone involved has found a common enemy.

Now, how about that Russian goaltender guy?

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05-13-2010, 02:25 PM
  #321
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Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
What Agrudez believes about Chris:
-Chris obviously knows what he is talking about, but often times sees things through a different tint of the glass than everyone else. Perhaps Paul Holmgren holds his **** when he pees?
Wtf?

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05-13-2010, 02:28 PM
  #322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agrudez View Post
For those who do not want to read through the entire debate, a paraphrase:

What Chris believes:
-elite goalies are few and far between and that most goalies are comparable, much more so than teams to one another; therefore, it is a waste to spend an extra few million on a goalie that will put up similar numbers to a cheaper option and would rather use assets on skaters.

What Jester thinks Chris believes:
-goalies don't affect a game at all and everything is dictated by the skaters on the ice

What Jester believes:
-goalies are a combination of both their own skill (shown by SVPCT) and the skill that surrounds them (GAA). *insert a million stats to prove his point here, after ignoring all stats that could possibly poke a hole in his hypothesis, of course*

What Chris thinks Jester believes:
-goalies are all that matters and the team in front of them does not make them what they are at all

What I am the Mush believes:
-goalies are awesome, has he mentioned that he plays goalie?


What Agrudez believes about Jester:
-Jester always brings very poignant arguments to the table and almost always supports them with very compelling statistics, but has a physical inability to admit when he is wrong, perhaps a pre-existing condition or a hereditary trait?

What Agrudez believes about Chris:
-Chris obviously knows what he is talking about, but often times sees things through a different tint of the glass than everyone else. Perhaps Paul Holmgren holds his **** when he pees?

What Agrudez belives about I am the Mush:
-Mush fairly accesses situations; however, he often expresses his opinions in a derogatory way, especially if you offend his grammar sensibility. Perhaps he has Vietnam flashbacks of 3rd grade English class?

What those three probably now believe about Agrudez:
-What a *****

The thread war is now resolved as everyone involved has found a common enemy.

Now, how about that Russian goaltender guy?
Now that part was good..

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05-13-2010, 02:29 PM
  #323
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hey Chris, want to trade JVR + Bobrovsky for Price? maybe we can throw in Giroux and Carter, to make it more balanced.

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05-13-2010, 02:32 PM
  #324
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hey Chris, want to trade JVR + Bobrovsky for Price? maybe we can throw in Giroux and Carter, to make it more balanced.

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05-13-2010, 02:37 PM
  #325
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fine, we can trade richards as well.

dont worry though BECAUSE ITS WHAT WE NEED and we have to do it because habs fans said so, and there are no other goalies anywhere else on earth who will ever play in the NHL or for the Flyers except Price somehow.


just in case people think ive been eating lead

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