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Kovalchuk, how much is too much?

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Old
05-17-2010, 12:33 PM
  #101
Sydor25
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Except the Kovalchuk's of the world aren't usually available via UFA. Maybe Dean was going to have Frolov as part of the "core" at $4.5-5 million, but if he can get Kovalchuk for a few million more he'll do it.

I've never said that Dean should sign Kovalchuk at all costs, but with a resonable contract, Kovalchuk will not force Dean to dismantle the team.

Kopitar, Brown, Doughty, Simmonds, Quick/Bernier will be the core for a long time still, adding Kovalchuk to that core would be awesome. Johnson is still the wild card, he could be part of the long term core if he doesn't ask for Doughty type money.

Handzus, Stoll, Williams, Smyth are not going to be with the Kings for more than 1 or 2 years, that is where the cap space will come from. Lewis, Loktionov, Schenn, Hickey, Voynov, Moller, etc will be the type of players to replace them. Lower cost players that allow you to keep the 4-6 player core together.

That is how the cap era teams are being built. With the way TV ratings are going up with the NHL, it is possible that league wide revenue may climb quickly with a strong TV deal and the cap may jump 3-4 million over the next few years. No one really knows what will happen with the cap. Everyone predicted that there would be a huge drop this upcoming off season, yet the new estimates are that the cap will be flat.

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05-17-2010, 12:54 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Tonellisghost View Post
Umm, the thing is that.....well.......

Montreal is $11,207,859m under the cap.

Philly is $8,827,741m under the cap.

San Jose is $20,525,03m under the cap.

The only team that is over are the Hawks and that is by $798,002k for this year.

If you think about it, with the playoffs that Hossa is having you could argue that they could have gone without signing him and brought up a few players to replace him and still be under the cap allowing them to keep their core (and then some) together.

They likely could have done as well without him.
Wow, your numbers are way, way the **** out there.

Not even close. Find some new numbers, like the numbers for this season. Not projected numbers for next season.

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05-17-2010, 12:57 PM
  #103
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Next season, as we sit today, which we very clearly can't & we sign Kovy and two defencemen alone our team's salary cap is $59,726.

That is getting Kovy next season at $8m and getting TWO defencemen at a total of $2.5m and having DavisD as one of our 7 D.

No matter what else we do, if we sign Kovy and 2 defencemen this off season our salary next season is just this side of $60m.

I am not a cap guy so there well be a few tricks and allowances that I am unaware of and if that is the case then so be it but just by doing the math, keeping what we have and adding Kovy and $2.5 worth of D, which is cheap, we are over the cap.

I want Kovy as much as the next guy and I totally get it when it comes to having a core, I am just more interested than what this core should be rather than running out each year like the Rangers and getting all ramped up over the latest "must have" player that comes along.

Kovy is a unique talent but he isn't 99. In fact, he isn't as good as Ovechkin or Crosby in my opinion. If we get to sign him we will pay Ove/Crosby/Malkin type of money for him, I just want these additional pieces to the puzzle, to our core group to be the best fit possible to our over all team.

Look at the Rags, who haven't they signed and how far has it gotten them?

The Gomez contract was mentioned and in the same sentence it was said that "he got a pretty good return" and I am blown away by that. He did nothing for the Rags as far as winning in the post season goes and was dealt for what I (and at the time TSN and a few other media types said) would call a poor to fair return with the cap hit being the only true positive.

Now as soon as the Rags get their 7 other highly over paid "must have" UFA's off the books they can start building a core group in ernest.

We have a solid core group but I don't see us at the stage where we can afford to add a $10million dollar man to it. But if we do, he just has got to be specifically the right one. Is Kovy that guy? Ask the Devils.

He just might be but he will cost us more than cap room and that might work, I am only trying to point out that if we sign him the ramifications to our team will be more than simply what happens to our cap, he will also cost us our ability to surround our core group with top talented players and effect our ability to keep our home grown talent past their rfa time.


It sounds like fun signing him and Hammy and hell, while were at it lets try and add a solid grinder via trade too, I am just saying that it is going to cost us allot of cash and also more than that.

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05-17-2010, 01:09 PM
  #104
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If we get to sign him we will pay Ove/Crosby/Malkin type of money for him, I just want these additional pieces to the puzzle, to our core group to be the best fit possible to our over all team.
Ok, so you are arguing from a point of view where DL over pays for Kovy. I don't see that happening. Either Kovy signs a cap friendly deal, or he is not a King. What would you say if DL can get Kovy with a cap hit < 7.3 / year.

We will just have to wait and see what Kovy signs for. If the Hawks make the finals, and even win the cup, maybe that would help Kovy see that he needs to fit on a team, as much as he needs to make $.

Maybe Kovy would be interested in a deal like this.

Yr-1 -8.5
Yr-2 -8.5
Yr-3 -8
Yr-4 -8
Yr-5 -7.5
Yr-6 -7.5
Yr-7 -7
Yr-8 -6.5
Yr-9 -6
Yr-10 -5

Total 72.5mil for 10 years with a Cap Hit of 7.25mil.

And...... The Kings are not being run like the NY Rags.......... I don't understand how you can compare the two.


Last edited by symbology: 05-17-2010 at 01:14 PM.
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05-17-2010, 01:09 PM
  #105
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What is unfortunate is people unwilling to look beyond next season. Just spending up to the cap won't get us anywhere, just ask the New York Rangers. Carefully managing the cap will. We will be up against the cap in just one years time, big UFA signings or not. Teams in the past had the luxury of the cap going up by millions every season. Now, who knows? The economy is a mess, ironically because of people unwilling to look beyond the next paycheck.

I understand what you're saying but I just hate the idea that we must go for it right now, put ourselves up against the cap for a big shot at the cup. I'd rather be patient and competitive longer than short sighted and going for the big shot. It took Yzerman twelve years to win the cup. He then won it three times in five years. Slow and steady wins the race. Screw instant gratification!
You act like Kovy is a 30 year old player with Chris Drury skills. No, he will be 27 next year and will be easily moved for a kings ransom no matter what the contract is. If we feel we need to move another direction the we can trade him in 2 years for multiple picks and prospects.

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05-17-2010, 01:19 PM
  #106
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DL has always argued that you build from within. Build from the draft and develop your players. However, he also mentions that you have to be open to go after and get that missing piece. That is all that Kovy would be to the Kings. The important part of the team that the Kings cannot fill from within.

How is this even remotely close to what the Rags have done in the past?

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05-17-2010, 01:21 PM
  #107
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05-17-2010, 01:31 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by symbology View Post
Wow, your numbers are way, way the **** out there.

Not even close. Find some new numbers, like the numbers for this season. Not projected numbers for next season.
Why would I do that? My numbers are exactly what the NHLPA and Capgeek have for these teams.

The point that I am addressing is one where it is stated that all cup contenders have cap trouble (to paraphrase).

It simply isn't the case for all four of the teams in the finals.

Additionally, all four of these teams have the ability to go out and fill any holes left over after this season and remain under the cap again for next season (2010/2011).

As we sit right now we have 7 signed forwards and 6 signed defencemen for the 2011 season. We pretty much have to address the missing 8-9 forwards and replace our 2d (also allow Harrold to return to Manch and use him as the E call up that he should only ever be).

As I have pointed out, if we were to simply address these issues and ad Kovy we are at just under $60m. Now I am certain that we will make moves and adjustments to make it work but it will effect the over all talent level of our team in other areas.

My numbers are fine for proving that three of the final four teams will all remain capable of staying under the cap and remaining competitive after this season just like they were able to do this season.

The only cap trouble team is the Hawks who would be the first to admit that they have made a few bad UFA decisions.

The way it seems that they will address these problems is by dealing away their young/established talent (Versteeg,Byfuglien,Sharp etc) and replace them with prospects.

I highly doubt that they will be able to deal Huet or Hossa or Campbell and receive equal value but who knows.

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05-17-2010, 01:39 PM
  #109
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You act like Kovy is a 30 year old player with Chris Drury skills. No, he will be 27 next year and will be easily moved for a kings ransom no matter what the contract is. If we feel we need to move another direction the we can trade him in 2 years for multiple picks and prospects.
His contract will almost certainly include a No Movement Clause.

I'm not saying signing him will be an automatic disaster but the guys saying signing him will be an automatic success story are equally speculative. In reality it's a gamble. I'm of the opinion that the risk isn't worth the reward but there certainly is a fair chance it's a winning ticket. No one knows at this point.

I do trust Dean Lombardi though and if he thinks this is the move that gives us the best chance of a great future then who am I to disagree. Until that day I will be the one guy trying to talk some sense into you lot

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05-17-2010, 01:44 PM
  #110
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"Kovy, how much is too much"

I am not arguing that DL "IS" going to overpay for kovy, I am arguing from a position that we need use caution "IN" over paying for Kovy and why we need to really look at him to establish that he is the best fit this coming season and for the next several (7-10) depending on salary structure and our ability to dump his contract if needed down the road).

In addition, do you think that DL will be able to sign Kovy for $5mill total more than the Caps have paid for Backstrom ?

DL is a solid GM but I think your being optomistic. I see Kovy as receiving a contract that establishes him as one of the top four paid players in the NHL if not one of the top two but time will tell.

But to your point, I never said anything about DL overpaying for Kovy. I am saying that signing Kovy at $8m per and by simply addressing our current needs and reasonably at that, we end up over the cap.

How we remedy that is going to cost us by losing talent in other area's including players that we don't necessarily want to part with and by replacing them with more affordable (lesser) talented players.

It still might be worth it, but I am not certain.

"How much is too much for Kovy"

My answer is any amount that causes us to be in a situation that is similar to the Black Hawks after this season. I don't see them making this run without Versteeg, Sharp and or Byfuglien.

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05-17-2010, 01:47 PM
  #111
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The point that I am addressing is one where it is stated that all cup contenders have cap trouble (to paraphrase).
The point was all of the teams that are still playing have spent up to, or over the cap. This is true. Posting that the Sharks have 20+ mil in available cap space next year does not mean anything in this argument.

You are right that the Hawks are the only team that has substantial cap trouble. Let's not forget that the Hawks had to move some players last year as well.

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05-17-2010, 01:50 PM
  #112
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Oh, and if you go back and read all of the posts in this thread (boring I know but useful in establishing content) you can see why I mention the Rags.

Of course the Kings aren't even close to being run like the Rags, I simply used them as a cautionary tale of the dangers of running out and signing the best possible ufa to fill a need and how it can ruin your team.

Every year some of us have our hearts set on the latest and greatest UFA and there is good reason why DL hasn't gone out and signed one yet, is Kovy different and the final piece? That is the question at hand.

That is why (as established in an earlier thread) I would have ever mentioned that Rags.

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05-17-2010, 01:58 PM
  #113
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"How much is too much for Kovy"

My answer is any amount that causes us to be in a situation that is similar to the Black Hawks after this season. I don't see them making this run without Versteeg, Sharp and or Byfuglie
I think most people would agree with this. We don't know if Kovy will sign a Hossa type of deal, or what he wants. Time will tell.

I will say, I think DL may be pushed (a little bit) to go after Kovy if Tim Leiweke feels he would add to the bottom line by selling more tickets (or higher priced ones) and more merchandise.

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05-17-2010, 01:59 PM
  #114
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Originally Posted by symbology View Post
The point was all of the teams that are still playing have spent up to, or over the cap. This is true. Posting that the Sharks have 20+ mil in available cap space next year does not mean anything in this argument.

You are right that the Hawks are the only team that has substantial cap trouble. Let's not forget that the Hawks had to move some players last year as well.
In your opinion the point was that all of the teams still playing have spent up to or over the cap, that isn't the way I see it or as stated in my response the point that I am arguing so I am gonna go ahead and disagree with you on that one.

What the Sharks have available next year (along with what the Fly's Habs and Hawks) is a critical part of the point of this argument.

The Sharks, Fly's and Habs are all going to be able to address their coming needs next season without having to dismantle their teams and in fact, they could stand pat with the same rosters that they have today (though they wouldn't) and be under the cap.

The same rosters that have them in the final four.

The Hawks remain an excellent cautionary tale as well in that they too will be under the cap but the cost is going to be more than dollars for them.

Its all a part of what I have been saying all along regarding what I feel should be considered in how much is too much for signing Kovy.

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05-17-2010, 02:10 PM
  #115
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The Sharks, Fly's and Habs are all going to be able to address their coming needs next season without having to dismantle their teams and in fact, they could stand pat with the same rosters that they have today (though they wouldn't) and be under the cap.
Okay fine. We disagree. IMO, the point was this year's playoffs and this years cap. There are FAR too many variables to include next year's cap (other team's) in this. Heck Chicago could move Campbell and Huet and be fine next year. You never know. However, the Hawks are in trouble this year.

There is no way that the Sharks can stand pat with the same roster for next year. Based on NHLSCAP they are over this years cap by <$500,000 and they have many UFA's and a few RFA's to sign. For example Pavelski and Setoguchi are going to demand some big raises next year.

You are right in that we have to be careful when it comes to signing any UFA's. Which, is one of the reasons why trades can be better in the long run. You tend to over pay UFA's when you can trade for a player with a better contract. However, there are not many Kovy's around.

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05-17-2010, 02:13 PM
  #116
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There is no too much. Kovalchuk is one the top 2 prolific goal scorers of this generation. Not even the boards can contain him.


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05-17-2010, 02:24 PM
  #117
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Okay fine. We disagree. IMO, the point was this year's playoffs and this years cap. There are FAR too many variables to include next year's cap (other team's) in this. Heck Chicago could move Campbell and Huet and be fine next year. You never know. However, the Hawks are in trouble this year.

There is no way that the Sharks can stand pat with the same roster for next year. Based on NHLSCAP they are over this years cap by <$500,000 and they have many UFA's and a few RFA's to sign. For example Pavelski and Setoguchi are going to demand some big raises next year.

You are right in that we have to be careful when it comes to signing any UFA's. Which, is one of the reasons why trades can be better in the long run. You tend to over pay UFA's when you can trade for a player with a better contract. However, there are not many Kovy's around.
Yeah, I think he's missed the point by a few inches. The Sharks have spent to the cap, and will need to decide which one of Marleau or Nabakov they are going to keep, because they don't have the room to sign both. That is going to be a different team next year. I don't know how anyone can argue that. The other three listed are in similar boats. It won't be easy to re-sign some of the guys they'd like to keep and trade parts that they'd like to get rid of, but it will be manageable. I'm sure there are a few teams out there that would like to take a Briere, Harntell, Buffy, or Sharp off their hands.

Now, back to the topic... I think anything under eight per, and DL will strongly consider, even though it is a bit much. The bottom line is, at the end of the day, if you can keep Kopitar, Doughty, Simmer, Brown, and Quick/Bernier together for the foreseeable future and add a guy like that, you do it.

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05-17-2010, 03:11 PM
  #118
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There is no too much. Kovalchuk is one the top 2 prolific goal scorers of this generation. Not even the boards can contain him.

Why are we wasting our time? Sign Naslund!

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05-17-2010, 04:19 PM
  #119
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backstrom just signed long term 10 yrs for 67 million what the hell is kovy going to ask for......and if we are smart we lock up DD for 10 years too

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05-17-2010, 04:25 PM
  #120
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backstrom just signed long term 10 yrs for 67 million what the hell is kovy going to ask for......and if we are smart we lock up DD for 10 years too
Hopefully, something a little less?

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05-17-2010, 04:55 PM
  #121
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backstrom just signed long term 10 yrs for 67 million what the hell is kovy going to ask for......
Very different situations, but point taken.

Again, I'm just hoping Kovy sees the value in taking a slightly lower cap hit number in the name of team preservation.

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05-17-2010, 05:10 PM
  #122
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I have been all for getting Kovy but cap restrictions might make it better to go for Hartnal and Sharp/Versteeg, glad I'm not DL.

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05-17-2010, 05:15 PM
  #123
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I have been all for getting Kovy but cap restrictions might make it better to go for Hartnal and Sharp/Versteeg, glad I'm not DL.
No on Hartnell (over paid), but I would be ok with either of the Hawks.

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05-17-2010, 08:06 PM
  #124
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Yeah, I think he's missed the point by a few inches. The Sharks have spent to the cap, and will need to decide which one of Marleau or Nabakov they are going to keep, because they don't have the room to sign both. That is going to be a different team next year. I don't know how anyone can argue that. The other three listed are in similar boats. It won't be easy to re-sign some of the guys they'd like to keep and trade parts that they'd like to get rid of, but it will be manageable. I'm sure there are a few teams out there that would like to take a Briere, Harntell, Buffy, or Sharp off their hands.
So I am wide of the mark due to my speculation but you are dead on with yours?

That's just silly.

The Sharks can stand pat with the players that are actually playing right now and let several ufa's walk and still have the team that is playing, not sitting on the bench or in the stands or backing up someone or here on a rider and sign everyone and still have pretty much the same team if they want to.

They pick up over $5m in allowing dead weight to walk that can be used directly to sign Nab/Mar and as for the rfa's they want to keep there are no doubt others that they won't and, they will still be under the cap.

Do you think that Blake will actually ask for and expect to receive $4m next season?

I don't see the Sharks as in cap trouble for this coming season and that is my point. They have several options, many of which don't cause them to have to deal away their young talent to repeat this seasons success.

The quote was "in cap trouble", the only team going into this season as of today that is still playing and "in cap trouble" are the Hawks. They are the only team looking at having to deal some top young established talent in order to regain control of their teams cap.

I mean, sure we can pie in the sky and say that someone will take Huet's $5+m contract and or Campbels $7+m per for the next several years contract off of the hawks but that is as silly in my opinion as speculating that we can sign Kovy for under $8m per year.

So you see, its speculation regarding teams and their salary cap positions and using speculation as the basis for your position in a debate is folly at best.

When the poster that I was responding to said that all four final teams are "in cap trouble" he was wrong in my opinion and that is why I posted my responses but, your taking out one part of the argument, a minor part of the argument at that and using it to make a judgement on my entire position. That doesn't even rate in my opinion.

"How much is too much for Kovy".

I have addressed this and my reasons for my position enough already and while it is simply an opinion, it is as valid and on point as any other that has been posted.

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05-17-2010, 08:23 PM
  #125
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So I am wide of the mark due to my speculation but you are dead on with yours?

That's just silly.

The Sharks can stand pat with the players that are actually playing right now and let several ufa's walk and still have the team that is playing, not sitting on the bench or in the stands or backing up someone or here on a rider and sign everyone and still have pretty much the same team if they want to.

They pick up over $5m in allowing dead weight to walk that can be used directly to sign Nab/Mar and as for the rfa's they want to keep there are no doubt others that they won't and, they will still be under the cap.
If the Sharks re-sign Marleau and Nabakov for the money they are making today, the Sharks will have $8,825,003 left to sign 9 players. How do they sign Setoguchi, Pavelski and 7 other players? Nabakov may take less money, but I would be surprised if Marleau takes much less than what he made last year.

What if Pavelski wants $4-5 million per year and Setoguchi wants $3+ million? Do they let Marleau and/or Nabakov walk?

I don't think that San Jose has as an easy time this off season, while you think they have plenty of cap space. They will have to make some important decisions with their UFAs/RFAs because of the cap. In the cap era, the strong teams will always have to make tough decisions every off season. It is up to the GM to draft well enough to keep lower cost talent in the lineup and contributing.


I believe that Dean has the Kings much closer to the San Jose situation than Chicago's. San Jose was able to add Heatly to their team last year and won't have to gut the team to keep the team strong.

Dean can do the same with Kovalchuk.

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