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Hiishawk's 40 1st round candidates (for what it's worth)

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05-22-2010, 07:25 AM
  #1
Hiishawk
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Hiishawk's 40 1st round candidates (for what it's worth)

I thought I'd post my thoughts and insights on the 2010 draft here as I do annually on this board. I don't post on HF too much anymore but hopefully long-term posters will remember me as someone who has been deeply involved in hockey (scouting at various levels- including NHL, officialdom), has connections and generally knows what he's talking about. Call me a very poor man's Bob Mackenzie.

I'll admit that my involvement this year with draftees has been less than in previous years when I would attend about 150 plus games but I do have the ear of some scouting insiders. I also admit that it's harder to post scoops here now with so many sources (solid and dubious) getting the inside track.

This is not a mock draft but a combination of personal likes, likes expressed by some insiders, and general prediction. Remember, it only takes one team to really like a prospect to make him go much higher than most rank him- it is not, as many assume, his final 'grade'.

I tend to see the draft in bunches.
1 and 2. We all know who goes in these two slots so 'nuff said. Hall probably goes to Edmonton.

3-17: Now, here's where it really gets interesting- more than in any recent draft. There are in my estimation 13 players who could go #3 and two more who might deserve to but won't. Any of Jon Merrill, Jack Campbell, Austin Watson or Ryan Johansen at #3 or top 5? It's a bit unlikely but would not shock me out of my gourd since I know that each is rated in the top 6 of at least one NHL team. Here's how I'll rank this bunch:
3. Vladimir Tarasenko: Probably deserves to go 3rd in terms of talent and potential but won't due to the 'Russian thing'. He will, though, be a great pick at the end of this set- especially to any team who has 2 1st round picks.
4. Brandon Gormley: Poise, sense, maturity- all in spades.
5. Cam Fowler: The WJCs were his biggest stage and he shone. Despite not being Scott Stevens the second his skill level still translates to the NHL.
6. Ryan Johansen: Improvement level is off the charts. If he continues to move forward he could challenge Hall and Seguin in a year or two. Was a horse in the WHL playoffs.
7. Michael Granlund: Has the size and so-so skating strikes against him but visualizes the game far better than anyone, and I mean anyone, in his age group. Smart enough to make the adjustments- as he already has in the Finnish league.
8. Nino Neiederreiter: Hands, shot, grit, colour- a clutch player. And one of the very youngest in the draft.
9. Evgeny Kuznetsov: Just a tad below Tarasenko and will drop for the same reasons but likewise will make a great pick after #15.
10. Jon Merrill: Leap frogged several defensemen in the past few months and was the best defenseman in Minsk by some margin. Upside is finally starting to appear.
11. Jeff Skinner: You WANT to find reasons not to draft him. Size. The fact that he looks (and sounds) like he's 14. He does NOT look like an NHL player. And then he's all over the ice and scores a clutch goal or two seeemingly every big game. He just gets it done.
12. Alex Burmistrov: The Russian factor even comes into play with players in the CHL. Electrifying, Mr. Through-the-legs-pass and dangle-til-you-drop. Would be top 10 in an ideal world.
13. Austin Watson- Like Johansen, became an all-around horse in the 2nd half. Oozes pro potential.
14. Derek Forbort: Although I (and others) have Merrill ahead at this point, Forbort is no slouch and could easily go top 10. Has been consistent all season.
15. Jack Campbell: The best goalie in the past 4 drafts. Has proven himself at both WJCs and U18s.
16. Brett Connolly- Combines will reveal a lot. What happened in Minsk? Who is the real Connolly? Top 5 if the hip flexor had never happened.
17. Erik Gudbranson- Another 'What happened in Minsk? case. Character points are off the chart as is physical development but I see some vision and puck decision problems here- finally exposed in Belarus?

I cannot remember a bunch of players so closely rated between #3 and the mid first round in over twenty years of draft watching. This should be fun.

And right after this, with the top Russians being considered at this point, there are two WHL boys who lay just a notch behind:
18. Mark Pysyk: Does everything well. I have trouble seperating him from Gudbranson in many ways (I even rate Pysyk higher in terms of puck decisions) except Gudbranson has the ‘super character’ thing going as well as the glimpses of meanness.
19. Emerson Etem: Eye catcher. Wants to make a difference. Flies down the wing and has a scoring touch to boot. Is now adding variety to his game so that he's not a one-trick pony.

Then, in my estimation, there is a drop. The next set is from #20 to #25 and there we might expect to see:
20. Calle Jarnkrok: Consensus best Swede available. Considering his late rise this year and Sweden’s recent player development successes, that says a lot.
21. Scott Bjugstad: I NEVER know much about USHS players but he seems to have the clear, consensus nod as being the best this year.
22. Ludvig Rensfeldt: Has that consummate pro look about him. Is consistent and does everything well. Very solid in Minsk.
23. Jaden Schwartz: Reminds me of Mikael Granlund but on a smaller stage. Great hands, top notch vision. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him being a better player than many listed above him here in 5-10 years’ time.
24. Quinton Howden: Potential reminds of Watson and at times he looks like he’s about to break out. He was hit and miss in Minsk and inconsistent in Moose Jaw but showed occasional flashes of top 20 potential.
25. Stanislav Galiev: Did not wow as expected in the Q but was consistent, shows flashes of skill and a well-rounded, mature game. Less affected by the Russian factor than the three countrymen listed earlier but it’s still a consideration.

I feel confident about these top 25 ending up in the real 1st round (borderline on Galiev). In the next slots we should see a bunch off current- or soon to be- NCAA players and the 2010 draft’s toughest dude. These are:

26. Dylan McIlrath- Varying views on his playing potential but his toughness is unquestioned. If you think he can make decisions at an NHL level then you take him in the early 20’s. If not, on toughness alone he warrants an early 2nd round pick. Somebody will bet on the former.
27. Beau Bennett: Players on the rise, who simply find a way to score, hold great value. The scoring instinct is the hardest to teach or develop- and Bennett has it.
28. Charlie Coyle: The top pick I admit to knowing the least about (I’ve seen a total of 2 EJHL games in my entire life) so I’m simply placing him by consensus here.
29. Brock Nelson: Consensus Minny H.S. #2 after Bjugstad. Gotta love the name- kind of a Captain America, football captain type. Never seen him personally.
30. Riley Sheahan: He and the next pick Pitlick have something in common. They were described to me as “future NHL journeymen, but the kind of journeymen coaches love in trades and at playoff time, even before they’ve finished a year in the NCAA. Very complete but also unspectacular. If a late round picking NHL team wants to swing for the fences a little more (and they often do so look to my picks #31 and #32), these guys might slip to the very early 2nd round. Sheahan’s late season indiscretion should make for some interesting Combine interview Q&A. But, if journeymen, why in the top 30 or thereabouts? Some see Ryan Kesler in Sheahan and a 15 year reliable top 6 guy in Pitlick.
31. Tyler Pitlick: See above.

The next set of players will be good choices for teams with multiple early picks.
I think another goalie should just about round out the first round or start off the 2nd, so I’ll go next with:
32. Calvin Pickard: Was great all year for a mediocre team but did not step up in Minsk.
33. Jared Tinordi: Almost all have him behind Forbort and Merrill on the US defence but the flashes of meanness and vast potential entice.

Next come six mystery players, the ultimate high-risk, high-reward picks. Again, a team with many early picks or someone with a big enough prospect cushion will swing for the fences here. Although I know that some teams wouldn't touch some of these players in their top 60s, someone will be willing to take the gamble. Combine interviews will be a deciding factor for the first two, about whom HF readers will already know the stories. So,
34. John MacFarland
35: Kiril Kabanov
36: Johan Larsson: Was his stunning U18 performance a one-off, or is this a guy on the rise?
37. Teemu Pulkinen: see below
38. Joey Hishon: Hishon is Canada’s Pulkinnen. Both can score, have great sets of hands and creativity but have been inconsistent, suffered from injuries and many scouts wonder they are the player type whose lower-level successes can be duplicated in the NHL.
39. Maxim Kitsyn: A top 30 talent and if you think you can get him to come over you pick him about here.

And to round it off:
40. Tyler Toffoli- Known for his big shot and scoring touch, as well as compete level but his skating is a question mark.
If I had to add an HM it would be:
Kevin Hayes- Along with Coyle, this is the player I know least about at the top end but 3rd hand information seems to have him as a consensus early 2nd rounder.


Last edited by Hiishawk: 05-22-2010 at 06:16 PM.
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Old
05-22-2010, 07:42 AM
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Renegade Stylings
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I like it. One mistake though, it's Nick Bjugstad, not Scott

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05-22-2010, 07:49 AM
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Fixed. I originally had Lance Pitlick too.

I'm old school...

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05-22-2010, 07:52 AM
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Fixed. I originally had Lance Pitlick too.

I'm old school...
Haha.

Either way, I agree with everything you have to say, and I feel the same way. There is definitely a big drop off in the early 20's or so. With that being said, I still think there will be a ton of great players to choose from up until the end of the second round where another drop occurs. Not quite as deep as last year, but close.

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05-22-2010, 08:22 AM
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a 15 year reliable top 4 defender in Pitlick.
Thanks for the interesting read. However, Pitlick is a center, not a d-man.

This is going to be a very interesting draft and I share your feeling about things being very unpredictable. Starting at pick #3, anything could happen and I'll go as far as say that a number of players you have listed in the 20's could go top-10.

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05-22-2010, 08:30 AM
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My sloppy on Pitlick. Fixed. The comments about his journeyman-ness and reliability (safe pick status) still hold.

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05-22-2010, 08:37 AM
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Thanks. I have always looked forward to your lists.

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05-22-2010, 10:04 AM
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Weal should be on this list, he is same size and just as good as Granlund and Schwartz. This kid just keeps getting underrated. Weal is the best skater of the three, the best defensively and has put up equal numbers???? Weal has as good of vision and smarts and anyone in the draft and probably one of the highest compete levels in the draft. People seem to put way too much negative weight on him playing with Eberle when it should be a positive. ie Kane and Gagner, Ovi and Backstrum.

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05-22-2010, 10:08 AM
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Just thinking about the Bruins getting three of these guys makes me smile, and more specifically, two players from that top tier.

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05-22-2010, 10:11 AM
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Just thinking about the Bruins getting three of these guys makes me smile, and more specifically, two players from that top tier.
That's how I felt last year with the "big three" in the draft, luckily the Avs got Duchene. Enjoy the feeling

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05-22-2010, 10:33 AM
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connolly at fifteen? are you serious?
first player in the dub to score 30 gaols as a 16 year old since Patrick Marleau...
islanders are taking him you watch

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05-22-2010, 10:59 AM
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love love LOVE when you post stuff like this Hiishawk.

On Bjugstad...he reminds me of Rick Nash in his draft year- big body, can skate, has a great shot, just needs to learn to score in the dirty areas.

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05-22-2010, 11:21 AM
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Weal should be on this list, he is same size and just as good as Granlund and Schwartz. This kid just keeps getting underrated. Weal is the best skater of the three, the best defensively and has put up equal numbers???? Weal has as good of vision and smarts and anyone in the draft and probably one of the highest compete levels in the draft. People seem to put way too much negative weight on him playing with Eberle when it should be a positive. ie Kane and Gagner, Ovi and Backstrum.
Pretty much every one of your 12 posts on this board is to defend Weal. He is no doubt a good scorer, but it's not just these boards who rate him much lower than Schwartz and other similarly skilled players. The fact is that eventhe professional publications that cover draft prospect have him rated lower than these players and I can't think of any that inlcude Weal in their first round projections.

Perhaps Weal will end up being the better player, but right now, it seems unanimous that the scouts don't feel he is a first round calibre prospect. Numbers are only one part of the equation. It's not just the readers of this board that feel that way.

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05-22-2010, 11:42 AM
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Pretty much every one of your 12 posts on this board is to defend Weal. He is no doubt a good scorer, but it's not just these boards who rate him much lower than Schwartz and other similarly skilled players. The fact is that eventhe professional publications that cover draft prospect have him rated lower than these players and I can't think of any that inlcude Weal in their first round projections.

Perhaps Weal will end up being the better player, but right now, it seems unanimous that the scouts don't feel he is a first round calibre prospect. Numbers are only one part of the equation. It's not just the readers of this board that feel that way.
Just read his post history...it's kind of creepy actually. Wonder if he's buddies with him or something.

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05-22-2010, 11:55 AM
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Interesting take. I understand many are saying that things could get quite interesting after the 2nd pick, but Sheahan 30th? Size, 2way play, and the fact he is already playing NCAA and I think he is rated significantly higher. All conjecture at this point, but he seems like a guy that, even if he doesn't reach his full potential, is still a guaranteed NHLer.

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05-22-2010, 12:17 PM
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Interesting take. I understand many are saying that things could get quite interesting after the 2nd pick, but Sheahan 30th? Size, 2way play, and the fact he is already playing NCAA and I think he is rated significantly higher. All conjecture at this point, but he seems like a guy that, even if he doesn't reach his full potential, is still a guaranteed NHLer.
Guys like him are always candidates to drop because he doesn;t have first round offensive ability.

I agree he is very likely to go in the first 20 picks, but I feel sorry for the that does choose him because he doesn't look like he'll ever be more than a third line player in the NHL.

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05-22-2010, 12:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty View Post
Weal should be on this list, he is same size and just as good as Granlund and Schwartz. This kid just keeps getting underrated. Weal is the best skater of the three, the best defensively and has put up equal numbers???? Weal has as good of vision and smarts and anyone in the draft and probably one of the highest compete levels in the draft. People seem to put way too much negative weight on him playing with Eberle when it should be a positive. ie Kane and Gagner, Ovi and Backstrum.
You misunderstood those are Hiishawk's top 40. If he mentions that Weal shouldn't be top 40 then that would open the door for you.

Get your own top 40 and put him in.

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05-22-2010, 12:48 PM
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You misunderstood those are Hiishawk's top 40. If he mentions that Weal shouldn't be top 40 then that would open the door for you.

Get your own top 40 and put him in.
Something tells me Jordan Weal might be the only player on his Top 40 list.

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05-22-2010, 01:55 PM
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Something tells me Jordan Weal might be the only player on his Top 40 list.
Maybe he is Jordan Weal.

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05-22-2010, 02:04 PM
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Maybe he is Jordan Weal.
The kid is being underrated, its as simple as that. I think I have made my point. I get he is not the only one being underrated in this draft. I am a Pats fan. I see a lot of kids being over hyped and over promoted and I think Weal is being overlooked. Just my opinion. I believe he is being underrated due to Eberle factor and after watching over 100 Pats games in the last two years, I can say with confidence he not getting the credit he deserves. He was better than Eberle on many occasions and had much more defensive responsibility.

Yes, I have been on a posting rampage about this topic and i will be sure to spread my opinions to other players as well. I may even do a list of my own, but it will, only be my opinion.

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05-22-2010, 02:08 PM
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Just read his post history...it's kind of creepy actually. Wonder if he's buddies with him or something.
I wonder if he is him.

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Maybe he is Jordan Weal.
Ha you beat me to that.

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05-22-2010, 02:15 PM
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this is fantastic because you articulate what I was thinking and save me a lot of thinking!

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05-22-2010, 02:55 PM
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I thought I'd post my thoughts and insights on the 2010 draft here as I do annually on this board. I don't post on HF too much anymore but hopefully long-term posters will remember me as someone who has been deeply involved in hockey (scouting at various levels- including NHL, officialdom), has connections and generally knows what he's talking about. Call me a very poor man's Bob Mackenzie.
I would suggest you to be less modest (although a feature to be praised for). I don't know McKenzie personally, nor do I know how much he knows about "prospects" (besides a top 10 list on TSN and a good track record based on first round mock lists, which can and should be applauded). What I do know is I feel I know more about this draft and its players than reading or hearing about "the top 10".

I hope you will continue to do this annually (if this is an annual contribution), as this is without doubt the most informative and what appears to be the most level headed contribution with regards to introducing new prospects heading into the draft 2010.

I don't have time or money (or will) to get to know the next batch of stars. I feel I just did. Many thanks and I hope you take more of your time to spread your knowledge here.

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05-22-2010, 03:34 PM
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I would suggest you to be less modest (although a feature to be praised for). I don't know McKenzie personally, nor do I know how much he knows about "prospects" (besides a top 10 list on TSN and a good track record based on first round mock lists, which can and should be applauded). What I do know is I feel I know more about this draft and its players than reading or hearing about "the top 10".

I hope you will continue to do this annually (if this is an annual contribution), as this is without doubt the most informative and what appears to be the most level headed contribution with regards to introducing new prospects heading into the draft 2010.

I don't have time or money (or will) to get to know the next batch of stars. I feel I just did. Many thanks and I hope you take more of your time to spread your knowledge here.
I'll echo this as well. Just to add...there's always room around this place for more knowledgeable posters, so I hope guys like Hiishawk don't go away just because there's always a bunch of clowns running around here. Modesty isn't a virtue that gets utilized too much around this place, so kudos for that.

As for MN HS players, since I live here, I feel inclined to touch on what I've seen.

-Bjugstad- Loaded with potential. Big kid, strong skater, good motor, nice shot, good genes, and he's a total rink rat from everything I've heard. Just loves to play. He accelerated his studies this year and is graduating a year early so that he can go to Minnesota in the fall. Just my opinion, but he's got a similar skillset to Okposo, but he's a bit more physical. He's gonna be good in a few years.

-Brock Nelson- Only saw him once, but he certainly stands out. He's a very good skater, but he's a ways away from the NHL. Could be a late bloomer though.

-Mark Alt- Loaded with untapped potential. Alt is a big kid, good leader, decent skater for his size, and could really take off when he gets to the next level and focuses on hockey. He's barely scratched the surface on what he could be.

Justin Holl- My absolute sleeper from MN this year. I saw Minnetonka about 10 times this year and Holl was the best player on the ice in just about every game I saw. He is a great skater, very good puckhandler, nice first pass, and really good vision. He needs to put some weight on, and he needs to get better in his own end, but he's got decent angles defensively and good instincts in his own end. Other than Bjugstad, I really believe that Holl could be the best MN player from this draft 5 years from now.

Max Gardiner- At times I loved his game, at times I hated it. His skating is an issue, but he's got a good first step for a big guy. He needs work on his lateral movement and strength on his skates. I wanted him to play with more jam most of the games I saw him, but when he turns it on he is really talented. Has the ability to pile up points for sure, but it's not there every shift. My opinion, he's a boom or bust type pick. His size and talent make him tantalizing, but I wonder if his skating is ever going to improve enough to get him to the NHL.

Just thought I would throw that out there.

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05-22-2010, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Shake the Nation View Post
I would suggest you to be less modest (although a feature to be praised for). I don't know McKenzie personally, nor do I know how much he knows about "prospects" (besides a top 10 list on TSN and a good track record based on first round mock lists, which can and should be applauded). What I do know is I feel I know more about this draft and its players than reading or hearing about "the top 10".

I hope you will continue to do this annually (if this is an annual contribution), as this is without doubt the most informative and what appears to be the most level headed contribution with regards to introducing new prospects heading into the draft 2010.

I don't have time or money (or will) to get to know the next batch of stars. I feel I just did. Many thanks and I hope you take more of your time to spread your knowledge here.
Agreed. Hiishawk did a great job. Ranges or Tiers are a good way to analyze NHL draft, as many scouts have players around the same area of talent, but make decisions based on preferences or needs.

As far as Mackenzie goes. TSN should release their draft preview soon. Usually, it includes a Top 60 with about 25 Honourable Mentions. Each player has a decent profile with some quotes from Scouts/Scouting Directors at ISS, Central Scouting or Coaches they have played for. Mackenzie's contribution is the order or relative range that the players will go in. Last year, he got 27 out of the 30 first round picks.

In my opinion, it's a great introduction for the casual fan.

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