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Hiishawk's 40 1st round candidates (for what it's worth)

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Old
05-22-2010, 04:51 PM
  #26
CantHaveTkachev
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great list

as an Oiler fan, my dream draft scenario would be to pick Hall at 1 and Johansen between 5-10

our LWer and center of the future!

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Old
05-22-2010, 07:19 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smarty View Post
The kid is being underrated, its as simple as that. I think I have made my point. I get he is not the only one being underrated in this draft. I am a Pats fan. I see a lot of kids being over hyped and over promoted and I think Weal is being overlooked. Just my opinion. I believe he is being underrated due to Eberle factor and after watching over 100 Pats games in the last two years, I can say with confidence he not getting the credit he deserves. He was better than Eberle on many occasions and had much more defensive responsibility.

Yes, I have been on a posting rampage about this topic and i will be sure to spread my opinions to other players as well. I may even do a list of my own, but it will, only be my opinion.
I have seen him rated 37th and 41st. That averages out to 39th on a top 40 ranking.


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05-22-2010, 07:44 PM
  #28
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I haven't heard any criticisms of Weal from anyone. He could turn out to be a player who should have gone in the top 15 but thr two concerns are size- he is still a notch smaller than the other small guys, and scouts want to see him prove himself on another scale- just not with Regina and Eberle. He was OK, but not quite what some people had hoped, in Belarus.

Anyway, my 40 listed players represent those who I have heard lwgitimately as 1st round candidates. I have never heard of Weal in that round, although he ranks soon thereafter.

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05-22-2010, 08:08 PM
  #29
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That's funny because Weal was #30 on the latest Central Scouting Draft List!

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05-22-2010, 08:12 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lydiabelieve View Post
That's funny because Weal was #30 on the latest Central Scouting Draft List!
Sorrry, but this is a newbie remark. Do the standard CSB math and he comes out near 40th.

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05-22-2010, 08:15 PM
  #31
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yah, you are right. And, quick!

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05-22-2010, 08:17 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lydiabelieve View Post
That's funny because Weal was #30 on the latest Central Scouting Draft List!
It proves he is not underrated and there is nothing to complain about.


New average out =36 on a 40 ratings scale.

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Old
05-22-2010, 08:49 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lydiabelieve View Post
yah, you are right. And, quick!
Speed is my best asset.

Anyway, the math (since even TV talking hockey heads get CSB rankings wrong). If Weal is 30th among N.A. skaters and we add two goalies in there, plus 3 Swedes, three Russians, and two Finns (as I have), Weal looks to be about 40th. And that sounds reasonable to me.

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05-22-2010, 08:49 PM
  #34
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Hey Hiishhawk, I'm fairly new but something tells me you're more realiable than most, could you talk a little bit about MacFarland and Kabanov. (thanks)

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05-22-2010, 10:52 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moneyyy View Post
Hey Hiishhawk, I'm fairly new but something tells me you're more realiable than most, could you talk a little bit about MacFarland and Kabanov. (thanks)
I second that request....and also want to know more about Kitsyn. Have you seen him play? Who does her remind you of?

Thanks!

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05-23-2010, 01:21 AM
  #36
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Hiishawk:

Love reading these reports every year, thanks so much for posting one again this year.

I'm wondering if you can fill me in on a couple things:

Granlund - I see that Woodlief has moved him up to the number 3 slot.

What is this guy lacking that keeps him from being a consensus top 5 pick, if not the consensus #3 pick? Do you see much "bust" potential for him given his exceptional "hockey sense"? More or less than a normal 4-8 OV pick?

Russian factor - How far do you expect Tarasenko and Kuznetsov to drop?

EDM at #1 - You indicated that you expect EDM to pick Hall. Is that based on anything beyond your perception that most see him as the #1 prospect? Does it seem likely to you that EDM would move down to 2, and BOS up a spot, or do you figure they'll stay where they are?

Thanks for any light you can shed, and again, thanks for the post, it was a great read!

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05-23-2010, 02:04 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiishawk View Post
I thought I'd post my thoughts and insights on the 2010 draft here as I do annually on this board. I don't post on HF too much anymore but hopefully long-term posters will remember me as someone who has been deeply involved in hockey (scouting at various levels- including NHL, officialdom), has connections and generally knows what he's talking about. Call me a very poor man's Bob Mackenzie.
Hiishawk/steblick we are all fortunate to enjoy your insight. Those of us who know you, know you. Thank you for this.

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05-23-2010, 02:36 AM
  #38
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Not to dig up the weal thing again, and I've never been someone to pump my hometeam player's tires...but Weal is still quite a player. All the stat watchers know about the offence(100 points at 17 years old especially in the dub is quite a noteworthy accomplishment...nevermind on a crappy team) , but one thing that might seperate him from the pack of mighty mites is his fearless style. He is often one of the hardest working players on the ice, never shies away from the corners, and is feisty to the point he comes off as hot-headed.

His style is similar to that swede that NJ drafted not too long ago, Tedenby. A competitor in every sense of the word, and doesnt let bigger players push him around. Whether he goes in the first round or not doesnt really matter and your list=your call...but I feel confident saying that the team picking him is getting a steal.

...one thing I could never understand. Scouts get scared by Weal's size, which makes sense...and I can understand why teams might feel safer drafting Granlund since he's more established on bigger stages like WJC and against men, yet it confuses me why the consensus opinion on here seems to be that the extra inch and 10 pounds gives Jaden Schwartz the clear on that issue. The kid is still small, plays small, and with inferior stats in an inferior league...I guess there must be something Im missing.

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05-23-2010, 08:02 AM
  #39
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A few responses...

Kitsyn. Late birthdate Russians can be hard to see. I last saw him during two games of the Subway series earlier this season. I also saw him at the U18's in Fargo/Moorhead last spring. He was considered a prodigy but some wonder if others have caught up to him- that he peaked early. Regardless, he's a typically offensive-minded Russian with a scoring touch, more of a power forward, drive to the net type, than a dangler though and he has the physique to succeeed in those situations. He can be chippy. I understand that he may be the hardest to lure of all the top Russian guys this year and that he wasn't quite the player as expected in the KHL this past season. The latter comments are second hand info.

MacFarland and Kabanov. Both top 5 skill and size wise and both underperformed this year. But it doesn't end there. Kabanov was voted off the island in Moncton, despite their having paid big bucks to lure him over. He has a widespread rep of putting himself before the team and a sense of entitlement. MacFarland's body language and effort in Sudbury raised flags. It just seemed like he didn't want to be there. Off ice I hear varying reports.

Granlund at #3 in Redline: As I've said, there are about 12 or 13 players who could legitimately go #3. Granlund's achilles' heel for some scouts is his two-strike combination, not being the fastest skater and lacking size. I'll bet some teams have him top 5 and others in the 15-20 range. Fore those whom hockey IQ is central- he'll be at the top end.

I expect Tarasenko to go to a team with an inside connection or multiple picks. Late teens would seem reasonable. Kuznetsov should be taken soon thereafter. But if ALL teams feel that the bounty is too high (agents play a big part in this, as do an NHL team's relations with the individual Russian clubs) Kuznetsov could slide to the 2nd.

Hall has built up too much of a public profile for the Oliers not to take him. And the all-around performance (gutsy!) we've seen thus far at the Memorial Cup should have put the icing on the cake.

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05-23-2010, 09:27 AM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiishawk View Post
I thought I'd post my thoughts and insights on the 2010 draft here as I do annually on this board. I don't post on HF too much anymore but hopefully long-term posters will remember me as someone who has been deeply involved in hockey (scouting at various levels- including NHL, officialdom), has connections and generally knows what he's talking about. Call me a very poor man's Bob Mackenzie.

16. Brett Connolly- Combines will reveal a lot. What happened in Minsk? Who is the real Connolly? Top 5 if the hip flexor had never happened.
.
I expect teams will have their own specialists looking at Connolly and his medical records.If teams doctors say his injuries aren't going to be a chronic problem,does Connolly go top 5?

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Old
05-23-2010, 11:05 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Some_Arrogant_Jerk View Post
Not to dig up the weal thing again, and I've never been someone to pump my hometeam player's tires...but Weal is still quite a player. All the stat watchers know about the offence(100 points at 17 years old especially in the dub is quite a noteworthy accomplishment...nevermind on a crappy team) , but one thing that might seperate him from the pack of mighty mites is his fearless style. He is often one of the hardest working players on the ice, never shies away from the corners, and is feisty to the point he comes off as hot-headed.

His style is similar to that swede that NJ drafted not too long ago, Tedenby. A competitor in every sense of the word, and doesnt let bigger players push him around. Whether he goes in the first round or not doesnt really matter and your list=your call...but I feel confident saying that the team picking him is getting a steal.

...one thing I could never understand. Scouts get scared by Weal's size, which makes sense...and I can understand why teams might feel safer drafting Granlund since he's more established on bigger stages like WJC and against men, yet it confuses me why the consensus opinion on here seems to be that the extra inch and 10 pounds gives Jaden Schwartz the clear on that issue. The kid is still small, plays small, and with inferior stats in an inferior league...I guess there must be something Im missing.
That is where he will be a steal otherwise it's not a steal.

Teams will shy away because they might already have small players. Looking at the Sabres they have Nathan Gerbe and 3 others or so slightly bigger.

I call it comparison shopping and some will be wrong.

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Old
05-23-2010, 01:42 PM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiishawk View Post
Hall has built up too much of a public profile for the Oliers not to take him. And the all-around performance (gutsy!) we've seen thus far at the Memorial Cup should have put the icing on the cake.
Much appreciated and looked forward to.

As an Oiler fan the Hall/Sequin debate is important to me so I would like to press further. In your opinion - if you were picking for your team - who do you take?

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Old
05-23-2010, 07:29 PM
  #43
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Weal vs. Schwartz- First, Schwartz' stats are quite excellent for a rookie in the low-scoring USHL (best since Vanek)- and without Jordan Eberle at his side. He's already a tad bigger than Weal and projects to be grow more (this is secondhand info. Anyone who knnows the family might want to confirm). The key factor may be that Schwartz is a bit more of a cerebral player than Weal (although Weal is no slouch in the hockey IQ department), which is more likely to compensate for size issues at the NHL level.

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05-24-2010, 12:00 AM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
Hiishawk/steblick we are all fortunate to enjoy your insight. Those of us who know you, know you. Thank you for this.
But I too, look for your annual draft info regardless. Thank you for taking the time to write something like this every year. Hopefully we have conveyed to you how valuable and entertaining your insight is.

Every year there are one or two players that significantly rise after the combine in Tronta due to elite measurables in the testing: who are the extremely fit athletes this year?

HiishawK, the Jackets need an elite centre, and like in past drafts it seems bpa at #4 isn't at centre. If you were sitting at #4 and had made the decision to drop down a few spots to get the centremen we need, which player would that be, and how far would you allow yourself to drop in the draft before you went ahead and pulled the trigger on that player?

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05-24-2010, 02:04 AM
  #45
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LGJackets- If you need an elite centerman right away you trade or sign a free agent. By the time any center, other than maybe Seguin, is likely to reach elite status the look of your club will probably have changed vastly. The draft very rarely serves immediate needs- it's about piling up assets. That being said, I like Johansen best among centers after Seguin. Burmistrov and Granlund both have elite potential too but both come with warnings attached (see original post).

Connolly- Even if in guaranteed full health I might hesitate with using a top 5 pick. I don't think there's been enough viewing of his development in the past year to make that leap. He was a top 5 as a 16 year old to be sure but so was MacFarland, and others in the past, who didn't develop as well during- or after- their draft years. That little question mark would make me hesitate on Connolly.

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Old
05-24-2010, 08:37 AM
  #46
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Great read. Thanks, a lot. Any thoughts on Jared Knight? Thanks, again.

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Old
05-24-2010, 09:55 AM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hiishawk View Post
Connolly- Even if in guaranteed full health I might hesitate with using a top 5 pick. I don't think there's been enough viewing of his development in the past year to make that leap. He was a top 5 as a 16 year old to be sure but so was MacFarland, and others in the past, who didn't develop as well during- or after- their draft years. That little question mark would make me hesitate on Connolly.
Thank you for making that point. Everyone (including the "experts") talks about whether Connolly's hip is healthy, but they don't talk about spending a top pick based on last year's spot on the development curve. He might end up being a great player, but teams are going to have to make a risk/reward decision where Connolly perhaps carries two risks (health and development) and where there are a lot of other great options out there. That could cause him to drop a bit.

BTW, to your point about Granlund and hockey sense, I think the Isles highly value hockey sense (they've said it, plus see Bailey, Tavares and De Haan). So, I could see them at least thinking about Granlund at #5. They also would probably like some size and speed though, so all that will have to be weighed.

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Old
05-24-2010, 10:46 AM
  #48
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Thanks alot for the time you put into this, it's greatly appreciated

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Old
05-24-2010, 01:26 PM
  #49
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I look forward to this thread every year, Hiishawk! And you just keep knocking them out of the ballpark! Love it!

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05-24-2010, 02:56 PM
  #50
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Hiishawk, always enjoy reading your posts. Thanks for sharing this. What are your thoughts on Austin Watson's offensive upside. I'm getting differing reports. Do you think he's closer to checking centre or No. 2 pivot? Is he better suited to the wing? As for Merrill, is he one of those late bloomers offensively who will be able to produce at the NHL level?

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