Upside is a top defensive-defenseman who could top out at 30-35 points (Think a faster Ohlund)
Downside: Andrew Alberts clone who can't handle the speed of the NHL.
I think he'll see his first call-up this year if we get more than 2 injuries on defense. He should be ahead of Oberg and Connauton for a call-up, but behind Baumer and whoever we add to the Moose in the offseason to replace Nycholat.
He put up a higher ppg in the playoffs than in the regular season, which leaves me cautiously optimistic he can be more than just a defensive defenseman who tops out at 20 points and can raise his game for the postseason.
I doubt he sees any Canuck time next season, barring lots of injuries, or if he makes a very smooth transition to the pro game. I hope he sticks with the Moose though, as we all know how great Arniel is.
1a and 1b scenario. Game 6 against Moncton, they literally alternated shifts all game. Despres played Durepos 5 on 5 and was the big gun on the PP (with Hoffman), and Sauve played with Beaulieu 5 on 5 and was our key penalty killer.
Ah, I see. He sounds like a stabilizing defenseman that focuses on the defensive side of the game. Its good to hear that he was one of the Sea Dogs top two defenseman.
My opinion of his upside is that of Regehr or Ohlund. Worst case scenario is Alberts.
His sounds like he is physically ready for the NHL with his big frame, but he needs to work on his decision-making abilities first in the minors.
my guess is he's going to take a few years to develop. He will start in a depth spot in Manitoba next year and stay there without a call-up all season, adjusting to the AHL game. In his first pro year, I think he'll basically be a #5/6 guy in Manitoba.
Guessing beyond that, he's back in the AHL the following year with call-up duty and moves up the depth chart through the season. In his 3rd year he will legitimately challenge for a depth spot on the Canucks, but may still find himself back in Manitoba. I think he will be a long-term project, but I think he'll get a good chance to develop into an everyday NHLer over the next few seasons in the farm system. In 3-4 years I think he'll establish himself as a bottom-pairing NHLer and in his prime I think he'll be a good 2nd pairing guy, though by that time he'll hit UFA status and who knows if he'll still be with this organization.
Sauve reminds me of Vishnevsky. He's a little bigger and not quite the skater, but they both had issues with their decision making. If he turns out like Vishnevsky (physical defensive #4/5 guy) he'd fill a big need on the cheap for the Canucks. Of course he will need at least one full AHL season, if not more.
As for this whole offensive upside debate, how can people really think that he has 40 point NHL potential when he never produced that much in Junior? Are people really still clinging to his 16 year old status? He's a pure defensive D-man, and that should be obvious to anyone who has followed Junior prospects at all.
Seriously though, put up or shut up. I want to hear some predictions on Sauve's potential.
I'm sticking with my second pairing Brad Stuart clone who'll peak at 40 points. I think he'll be able to play 20 minutes a night in all situations. I think he'll take two years to make it but he'll be a smooth physical defenseman that we lack in the system.
I tossed out Rob Scuderi and Mark Fistric in a post a couple above yours.
NHL defenders don't score 40 points unless they play the PP, and if Sauve never played the PP consistently in junior, you can be damned well sure he isn't going to in pro.
Like I said above, if he could turn into a decent, physical 2nd-pairing defensive defender like Scuderi who plays 19 or so minutes/game and puts up 15-20 points/year, that would be a *great* outcome from this pick.
He put up a higher ppg in the playoffs than in the regular season, which leaves me cautiously optimistic he can be more than just a defensive defenseman who tops out at 20 points and can raise his game for the postseason.
I doubt he sees any Canuck time next season, barring lots of injuries, or if he makes a very smooth transition to the pro game. I hope he sticks with the Moose though, as we all know how great Arniel is.
That ppg ratio he put up in the playoffs is definitely a good sign that he can contribute not only defensively but can put up points on the board too. IMO the physical freedom that was allowed to him raises his game even more, allowing him to play better and with more confidence. In any case, it's great to see him step up in a huge way for his team.
Your point about having Arniel coaching him in Manitoba is also very valid. However - as selfish as this might sound - I'd love for him to stay one more year with the Moose, just so he can help Sauve and others develop their game even further. He's done a great job with guys who are now with the Canucks, and I can only hope that he stays at least one more season with us before moving on to the NHL.
All I want out of Sauve in his prime is a guy who is, on a consistent basis, reliable in his own zone regardless of the opposition (obviously within reason), isn't scared to thump a guy here and there, eats up second pairing minutes, and can make a good enough first pass to reliably get the play going in the right direction. If he achieves that, then the pick is a total success in my eyes. Anything more is a totally great bonus. If he falls short but still ends up as a reliable bottom pairing guy, I'm still not going to be upset.
If Connauton's development doesn't continue on this season's wall-like trajectory, the Canucks will need a guy they can play with him to mask his defensive issues. If Sauve can be that guy, and they can play behind Ehrhoff and Edler in a couple years, that's wonderful.
Like I said above, if he could turn into a decent, physical 2nd-pairing defensive defender like Scuderi who plays 19 or so minutes/game and puts up 15-20 points/year, that would be a *great* outcome from this pick.
I would agree with this. If Sauve becomes the player you describe above, the pick has to be considered a great pick.
Heck, what precentage of 2nd round picks even play in the League at all?
NHL defenders don't score 40 points unless they play the PP, and if Sauve never played the PP consistently in junior, you can be damned well sure he isn't going to in pro.
The one thing Sauve does have going for him is that he (apparently) has a heavy, hard shot. Defencemen that do seem to have a chance of outperforming their Junior numbers because they end up on an NHL PP are the big guys with heavy shots (Weber, Chara, Foster, Aucoin, etc.)
Obviously it's still very unlikely but if he can figure out how to make his shot an asset he could find himself on the PP one day.
All I want out of Sauve in his prime is a guy who is, on a consistent basis, reliable in his own zone regardless of the opposition (obviously within reason), isn't scared to thump a guy here and there, eats up second pairing minutes, and can make a good enough first pass to reliably get the play going in the right direction. If he achieves that, then the pick is a total success in my eyes. Anything more is a totally great bonus. If he falls short but still ends up as a reliable bottom pairing guy, I'm still not going to be upset.
If Connauton's development doesn't continue on this season's wall-like trajectory, the Canucks will need a guy they can play with him to mask his defensive issues. If Sauve can be that guy, and they can play behind Ehrhoff and Edler in a couple years, that's wonderful.
When you put it like that, it would definitely be great if all Sauve became was a defensive d-man, assuming he was a GOOD defensive d-man; since it gives you the opportunity to put a guy who's all out offense on his pairing.
Hopefully, Sauve is Willie Michell but can pass and shoot. A big guy that can skate, play well positionally and lean on smaller forwards while outskating bigger guys.
Could Sauve possibly be a Seabrook type? From what I remember of that draft, the Blackhawks took Seabrook quite a bit higher then he was ranked. Seabrook went on to play two more years of junior after his draft just like Sauve has. Seabrook had better offensive #'s but didn't exactly light the world on fire.
