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DD's and JJ's new contract

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Old
06-08-2010, 12:12 PM
  #1
Youngblood93
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DD's and JJ's new contract

I was just on Capgeek.com and noticed that Duncan Keith has a cap hit of $5,538,462.00 for the next 8+ years. It looks like he'll win the Norris this year as well.

I'd have to figure DL & Company are going to use Keith's deal as a measuring stick.

So if DL can get DD to sign a 8 - 10 year deal, does he get over 6 million a year? Then JJ goes for 4 - 4.5 million a year for a 5 - 8 year deal?

Thoughts?

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06-08-2010, 12:18 PM
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LaLaLand
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Keith looks like he'll win the Norris ?? how so? the ballots were in before the playoffs started incase you didn't know. The playoffs have absolutely no influence on who will win the Norris

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06-08-2010, 12:32 PM
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Buddy The Elf
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I'm ok with WHATEVER they have to give Doughty but somewhere around $6m is not out of the realm of possibility. Jack on the otherhand, he needs to step up to the plate and earn a $4m+ deal. This year is the pay off pitch for him if he wants a big deal before he hits UFA. Isn't Jack a RFA next summer and arbitration elegible? I still think there is a chance he might walk as a UFA when that time comes which is why I wouldn't be against signing Hamhuis.

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06-08-2010, 12:40 PM
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Keith and Seabrook is a good measuring stick. DD for 5.5-6 and JJ for 3-3.5, seems about right.

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06-08-2010, 12:52 PM
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Youngblood93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SkoalMan11 View Post
Keith looks like he'll win the Norris ?? how so? the ballots were in before the playoffs started incase you didn't know. The playoffs have absolutely no influence on who will win the Norris
I know and IMO he had a better year the DD.

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06-08-2010, 01:14 PM
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Keith's contract is structured like this:
8M 8M 8M 7.65M 7.6M 7.5M 6M 5M 4.5M 3.5M 2.65M 2.1M 1.5M

He'll be 39 years old during his final season.

This was Keith's 3rd contract, he was a 26 year old pending UFA when he signed it, and wasn't yet considered an elite defenseman. I don't think he's that much of a comparable.

It wouldn't surprise me if Drew's contract turned out to be similar to Kopitars.

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06-08-2010, 01:20 PM
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Doughty around $7M and Johnson for $3.5-4M ?

Who knows at this point.

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06-08-2010, 01:33 PM
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The Black1963
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I'm hoping for something close to 6M cap hit for DD on a long term deal. As for JJ, I'm thinking probably shorter term maybe about 3 yrs at around 4M. And no one's mentioned Simmonds but he too is a RFA at the end of next season and I'm hoping for a 5 yr deal at around 3-4M per.

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06-08-2010, 02:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RH63 View Post
I'm hoping for something close to 6M cap hit for DD on a long term deal. As for JJ, I'm thinking probably shorter term maybe about 3 yrs at around 4M. And no one's mentioned Simmonds but he too is a RFA at the end of next season and I'm hoping for a 5 yr deal at around 3-4M per.
I highly doubt Dean will go as high as 4. Maaaybe 3 if the deal is long enough.

With players like Kopi and Doughty, Dean's hand is kind of forced in regards to offering a big second contract. With guys like Simmonds, as we just saw with JJ, and we will likely see with Richardson, and we saw with Cammy and with Sully, Dean will most likely, based on track record and recent strong statements, insist those level players sign second contracts before getting a big raise. Simmonds top level is likely going to be a $4-5 million player. Dean will probably want him to be ~2.5mill player for a few years after his ELC ends before he gets to cash in big.

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06-08-2010, 02:23 PM
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Sydor25
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Doughty will be similar to Keith's, but his salary will increase each season.

Doughty will be around $6 million and Jack will be in the $3 million range.

Simmonds will be in the $2 million range.

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06-08-2010, 02:27 PM
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I am hoping Dean is able to lock up both Doughty and Kovalchuk to 12 year deals at 6.8 million a season. Doughty's contract structured at 6.8 a year for the contract and Kovalchuk's top heavy for the fist 7-8 years then diminishing the last 5 to 6.

That would keep our top 3 on even ground, no jealousy etc. Give us 3 decent cap freindly contracts vs a Crosby, Ovy, Malkin type 8.6 plus million.

Johnson on the other hand has not proven a thing. I would let him play out his final year and see which way he goes or if he was willing I would try a 1 year extention for 3 mil a year and re-look at it after that, as Smyth's heavy contract will be off the books.

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06-08-2010, 02:34 PM
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The Black1963
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDM View Post
I highly doubt Dean will go as high as 4. Maaaybe 3 if the deal is long enough.

With players like Kopi and Doughty, Dean's hand is kind of forced in regards to offering a big second contract. With guys like Simmonds, as we just saw with JJ, and we will likely see with Richardson, and we saw with Cammy and with Sully, Dean will most likely, based on track record and recent strong statements, insist those level players sign second contracts before getting a big raise. Simmonds top level is likely going to be a $4-5 million player. Dean will probably want him to be ~2.5mill player for a few years after his ELC ends before he gets to cash in big.
If Simmonds signs for 2.5M, then it will be a short term contract (2-3 yrs), because everyone pretty much expects that Simmonds will be a big part of this team's success. And 2.5M for someone who probably will play on the 1st line isn't going to cut it. And I also disagree that Simmonds contract will cap out at 4-5 mil during his career.

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06-08-2010, 02:42 PM
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JDM
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I said short term. Technically I said 'for a few years' same difference. Like JJ and Sully. 2-3 years.

I guess its possible Simmonds sees big money at somepoint, but it is irrelevant to him being a 2nd contract kind of player.

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06-08-2010, 02:44 PM
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Sydor25
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JDM's really trying to get his post count higher....You should have waited for the iPhone 4... No double posts with an iPhone.

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06-08-2010, 02:47 PM
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The Black1963
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I think he said it was the droid phone. Personally, i think he's trying to catch up to Telos for total post counts.

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06-08-2010, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Sydor25 View Post
JDM's really trying to get his post count higher....You should have waited for the iPhone 4... No double posts with an iPhone.
Grrr....

Apple can lick me. And the droid was on a 2-for-1 deal, so um... there.

It took me 10 minutes to complete a 2 minute phone call last night because I kept accidentally hitting 'end' and/or 'mute' with my cheek. Literally happened like 5 times.

The double posts are the least of my aggravations

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06-08-2010, 03:45 PM
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redcard
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Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Grrr....

Apple can lick me. And the droid was on a 2-for-1 deal, so um... there.

It took me 10 minutes to complete a 2 minute phone call last night because I kept accidentally hitting 'end' and/or 'mute' with my cheek. Literally happened like 5 times.

The double posts are the least of my aggravations
Heh, same here, I've cheek muted at least 3-4 times. But regardless, still love the phone and paid half price for it (split the 2 for 1 deal).

As for Doughty's contract vs. Keith's, based on Lombardi's interviews I'd say Keith's contract is very relevant. Lombardi's been talking a lot about "Sakic money", the backstrom deal, and paying based on accomplishments vs. potential. Keith has accomplished more than Doughty simply as he's been around longer, and they were undoubtedly the top 2 defensemen this year. If Doughty get's more than Keith it will be based on the fact that Doughty has more potential than Keith, and Lombardi doesn't like that. So if Doughty's serious about signing a long-term contract right now, Lombardi will use the Keith contract as a benchmark. If Doughty feels he deserves more, Lombardi will prefer the "2nd contract" method and propose a JJ/Sully term deal where he'll have 2-3 years to further establish himself and prove his worth. Then when that contract expires and if Doughty progresses beyond Keith like we all expect, his third contract will be larger than Keith's.

So in short, if Doughty want's a long term deal right now I'd expect the numbers to be very similar to Keith's. If Doughty want's more than 6 per year long term Dean's going to want to give him a 2 year deal like JJ first (probably 3-4 mil a year for 2-3 years), then commit Long term after (at which point he'll probably receive 7+ per year).

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06-08-2010, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by johnjm22 View Post
Keith's contract is structured like this:
8M 8M 8M 7.65M 7.6M 7.5M 6M 5M 4.5M 3.5M 2.65M 2.1M 1.5M

He'll be 39 years old during his final season.

This was Keith's 3rd contract, he was a 26 year old pending UFA when he signed it, and wasn't yet considered an elite defenseman. I don't think he's that much of a comparable.

It wouldn't surprise me if Drew's contract turned out to be similar to Kopitars.
This is how I'm thinking as well. Keith's contract is low because 1)he signed the contract 2 months into his only elite season so far at age 26; and 2) his next contract wouldn't take place until he's 40. To do the same with Doughty would mean a 18-19 year contract. Lombardi touched on this in a recent interview (my transcription below; emphasis mine).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean Lombardi
But the other thing too, the irony, and this is the the other thing where it's backwards. You know, that you're almost better off having an older player that you can put on one of those long term contracts and get the average value down. And you saw that with like, you know Timonen did that, Pronger's done that. So, you know, again, that you're almost better off with an older player cause now you're paying him a lot of money up front, he's getting his cash, but your AAV comes down to like 5. And it's real hard to do that with a younger player, say a Doughty, unless you're going to give him a 20 year deal like the Islanders did with Dipietro.

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06-08-2010, 05:10 PM
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Youngblood93
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Originally Posted by Sydor25 View Post
Doughty will be similar to Keith's, but his salary will increase each season.

Doughty will be around $6 million and Jack will be in the $3 million range.

Simmonds will be in the $2 million range.
Sounds good to me.

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06-08-2010, 05:27 PM
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The landscape has changed, mainly due to the way Kevin Lowe dispersed offer sheets like candy. Players are becoming UFAs at a younger age and GMs are trying to avoid having their young core players reach free agency.

Every manager has to get adjusted to the new CBA and accept that they have to commit to these long term deals if they wish to keep their core together, otherwise, you are going to see another Ilya Kovalchuk or Marian Gaborik like situation play out where Atlanta and Minnesota lost their franchise players. That is something the league would like to avoid.

Lombardi understood that when he signed Kopitar to his long-term extension, and he will do just the same with Doughty. Johnson is a bit more of a challenging case to project. In the long term, he most likely will be the #2 defenseman behind Doughty, and he has shown glimpses of what he is capable of, but he is still developing his game and we may not see his full potential until he is in his mid-to-late 20s. With that said, it may be in the Kings' best interests to avoid arbitration and/or a potential offer sheet next summer.

If I were to put a price tag on Jack Johnson's contributions to the team last season, I'd say he is worth upwards of $3M. If we are to project what he can potentially do (as witnessed with his performance in the playoffs), then he his potential earning will be in the $4.5-5M (in the same ballpark as Komisarek, Streit, Brewer, Regehr, Gilbert, Whitney, Pitkanen, Meszaros).

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Old
06-11-2010, 07:51 PM
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sabres fan here. do you guys consider JJ as one of your "untouchables"? i'd be interested in hearing what it would take to acquire this guy in buffalo. myers needs a long-term partner.

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06-11-2010, 08:02 PM
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sabres fan here. do you guys consider JJ as one of your "untouchables"? i'd be interested in hearing what it would take to acquire this guy in buffalo. myers needs a long-term partner.
I wouldn't go as far as saying he's untouchable but I'd definitely say he's a key player for the Kings in an area of need (NHL caliber puck mover) with a very high ceiling who we have yet to see the best from. In other words it doesn't make much sense at all to trade him.

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06-11-2010, 08:29 PM
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The Black1963
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A few games in the playoffs quarterbacking our pp did a lot of good for JJ apparently. Because up until then, there really wasn't a whole lot of interest from non-kings fans in regards to JJ and his plus/minus differential.

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