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What will it take to get Hornqvist signed?

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Old
06-08-2010, 03:09 PM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
So what's fair market value for a guy who's willing to go to the net, who scored 30 goals and is a general pest to the other team without really getting penalized in doing so?
Agreed, you cannot underestimate the impact of this type of player on a team (see Holmstrom). In stealing from another thread, we are likely the worst PP in the league without Hornqvist. I'm willing to bet he contributed more than just 10 goals to the PP because of his presence in front of the net.

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06-08-2010, 05:09 PM
  #27
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Real question is: will this continue or will he fall back to 15-20 goals? I think to pay big dollars after one season is not prudent. But a reward in the amount is necessary.

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06-08-2010, 05:11 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
Why do long term deals benefit the player? In the case of Burrows, it wasn't beneficial. He could be making a lot more money than he is now if he signed a 2-year deal vs a 4-year deal.

A lot of time players settle for less money on short term deals so they can outplay their contract, and get a bigger pay day.

Honestly, it's matter of knowing your players and identifying what their long term role is going to be. Short term deals allow it play itself out; long term deals are a prediction game. Sometimes the organization gets the better end of the deal (Burrows, Parise), sometimes it's about right (Mike Richards), and sometimes the player get the better end of the deal (Vanek, Dumont, Drury, Legwand, Horcoff, etc).
A long term contract in the NHL is beneficial to the player in that it is guaranteed. If the player gets injured or doesn't continue up to his previous performance level he still gets paid or his remaining years are bought out in a manner that continues to be beneficial to the player. The club takes on risk there that the player will continue to perform at the level at which they are being paid for and in exchange gets the benefit of saving money if the player exceeds his performance level or the market price for that performance level rises.

If Hornqvist takes a 1 year, $4 million deal he gets a lot of money, but no security beyond this season. If he gets injured and is unable to continue playing, he gets $4 million for the rest of his career. If he drops down to a 15 goal season, he loses money on his next contract because he labels his 30 goal season as a fluke.

Rather, if like Burrows, he signs a 4 year, $8 million deal he takes the security of getting $8 million and having a roster spot for the next 4 years or getting a lump-sum buyout. Sure he potentially gives up money here, but he also signs a contract that enables him to get paid for his previous season's performance and gives him the opportunity to hit the market again as a free agent during his prime years having shown a pattern of consistency and hopefully earning him the best contract of his career.

Neither Hornqvist or Burrows has/had established himself yet as a reliable NHL performer, but rather at best an improving player with great potential. One year does not make a successful career. If you want the big bucks, you've gotta show that you can do it on an annual basis and be counted upon to be a cornerstone of your team moving forward.

I'd like to see Patric get around two years, $4 million before we pay him anything higher. We simply cannot afford to take a huge leap of faith that he can stay healthy and continue contributing at a 25+ goal level after one season...

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06-08-2010, 06:01 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by SLake View Post
A long term contract in the NHL is beneficial to the player in that it is guaranteed. If the player gets injured or doesn't continue up to his previous performance level he still gets paid or his remaining years are bought out in a manner that continues to be beneficial to the player. The club takes on risk there that the player will continue to perform at the level at which they are being paid for and in exchange gets the benefit of saving money if the player exceeds his performance level or the market price for that performance level rises.

If Hornqvist takes a 1 year, $4 million deal he gets a lot of money, but no security beyond this season. If he gets injured and is unable to continue playing, he gets $4 million for the rest of his career. If he drops down to a 15 goal season, he loses money on his next contract because he labels his 30 goal season as a fluke.

Rather, if like Burrows, he signs a 4 year, $8 million deal he takes the security of getting $8 million and having a roster spot for the next 4 years or getting a lump-sum buyout. Sure he potentially gives up money here, but he also signs a contract that enables him to get paid for his previous season's performance and gives him the opportunity to hit the market again as a free agent during his prime years having shown a pattern of consistency and hopefully earning him the best contract of his career.

Neither Hornqvist or Burrows has/had established himself yet as a reliable NHL performer, but rather at best an improving player with great potential. One year does not make a successful career. If you want the big bucks, you've gotta show that you can do it on an annual basis and be counted upon to be a cornerstone of your team moving forward.

I'd like to see Patric get around two years, $4 million before we pay him anything higher. We simply cannot afford to take a huge leap of faith that he can stay healthy and continue contributing at a 25+ goal level after one season...
I agree it does give some security on injuries. There are some cases where an injury stops someones career, but it's rare for a young hockey payer (more likely as they get into their 30s). Dipetro is one of the few that come to mind. But, the club won't be on the hook for most of it, it'll be the insurance company.

But, that's not to say all long-term deals benefit the player. Burrows being the easiest example. He lost out millions signing the 4 year deal as opposed to a 2-year.

I'm guessing he will sign a 1 or 2 year deal. Poile will want more proof. That being said, I'd sure sign him to a 5+ year deal at 3million. Dustin Brown would be a great comparable to use.

His net play is great, but if you look at other somewhat similar players, their goal totals will fluctuate, and low 30's is usually the high-end, but also having down years of low 20's, or even teens (see Holmstom, Brown, Hartnell).

I think we'd be lucky to sign him to 2 million at any length. I think the low-end is 2.5. Sure, we can point to Bryan little or someone, but how you play in your contract year plays a huge role in the money you get.

The Predators having a limited budget is likely of no concern to their camp. If we aren't willing to offer him some money, someone else probably will.

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06-08-2010, 08:01 PM
  #30
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The contract year is different for a player getting off of an ELC. Unless he completely lit it up through out the entire contract it's not likely you'll see a player go from an ELC to a big pay day. Hornqvist did show a great deal of development and maturity last season, so he will certainly be entitled to a nice raise, but I wouldn't put a whole sweat the contract year thing much.

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06-08-2010, 10:52 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
It's his history of passivity that would lead me to speculate a more assertive GM would be doing more to get him signed. Can't say this with any certainty, but I will speculate.
what passivity? care to be specific?

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06-08-2010, 10:58 PM
  #32
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There will be an article in the Tennessean tomorrow discussing all the ongoing contract talks and what's going on thru Poile's mind in Wednesday's paper. I guess we'll find out a few things.

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06-09-2010, 07:49 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
There will be an article in the Tennessean tomorrow discussing all the ongoing contract talks and what's going on thru Poile's mind in Wednesday's paper. I guess we'll find out a few things.
heres the link
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20...or+free+agency

pretty much what you would expect... still talking to ownership...still talking to Hamhuis... admits signing Hammer will be "tough".. says they will "reach out" to Dan in the next week before taking their "final position"... Decision of Hamhuis will drive grebeshkov and buillon decisions..

working on "locking up Hornqvist long term".... could be done in the next week, or may take longer.

working to get Geoffrion signed which must be done by Aug 15...

says Ellis is going to look for a #1 spot but would welcome him to come back and talk to him after July 1 if he is open to that.

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06-09-2010, 08:35 AM
  #34
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What could be the sticking point on Geoffrion's deal?

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06-09-2010, 08:36 AM
  #35
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i guess my fear is giving him 2.5-3 million and seeing him fail again. I am just not certain he is consistant scorer. He had a lot of trashy goals. I would give him a 3 year, 6 or seven million deal, that way he makes what, 2.25 or so. if what was stated was true and he has 4 years before he is a ufa, this gives us a chance to pay him or cut ties and get value after year three. heck, 680k to 2.25 mil is a pretty hefty bump. esp. for a non superstar

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06-09-2010, 10:32 AM
  #36
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What could be the sticking point on Geoffrion's deal?
probably bonuses. Im sure being a nashville native and Hobey Baker winner his agent thinks Geoffrion should get a maxed out rookie contract like a high 1st rounder would normally get. I suspect Poile is not willing to give that to a guy who will likely be in milwaukee at least a year or two...

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06-09-2010, 10:34 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
probably bonuses. Im sure being a nashville native and Hobey Baker winner his agent thinks Geoffrion should get a maxed out rookie contract like a high 1st rounder would normally get. I suspect Poile is not willing to give that to a guy who will likely be in milwaukee at least a year or two...
He's a second rounder and was a reach at that spot when drafted. He's got talent but not enough to merit a first round contract.

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06-09-2010, 10:36 AM
  #38
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i guess my fear is giving him 2.5-3 million and seeing him fail again. I am just not certain he is consistant scorer. He had a lot of trashy goals. I would give him a 3 year, 6 or seven million deal, that way he makes what, 2.25 or so. if what was stated was true and he has 4 years before he is a ufa, this gives us a chance to pay him or cut ties and get value after year three. heck, 680k to 2.25 mil is a pretty hefty bump. esp. for a non superstar
I suspect the higher the money is the fewer years poile will be willing to commit to, and vice versa.

Hornqvist will have to decide if he wants reasonably good money guaranteed for 3 years or 30 goal scorer money for one year knowing he'll have to prove he deserves that money again or risk getting much less the next time.

I can see three years at 2,2.5, and 3.5. By the third year it could be a huge bargain, and if its not we should still be able to afford it.

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06-09-2010, 12:38 PM
  #39
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If management had faith in him, I can see a three-year deal at roughly $2.5M being fair value. The concern is that if he goes into free agency, there might be a team that would offer up to $3M out of desperation (Leafs) which would be a steal with only a 2nd round pick as the compensation.

If I were Poile and it was clear that Hornqvist was going to go for top dollar even if it meant a shorter term, I would:

A.) See if he can be traded, but the problem is you'd likely not get a low cost, high-scoring forward in return.

B.) Sign him for a one-year $3M deal (worst case scenario) and say that you're getting paid this based on one year, if you want to get paid this again next year, keep it up. Team can take him to arbitration I think if he has a bad year and bring it down some (15%, so that would be $2.55M).

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06-09-2010, 01:01 PM
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what passivity? care to be specific?
The most blatant example is all 3 of our "big" free agent signings (Arnott, Dumont, Kariya) have all said publicly that they had to contact Poile to get a discussion started.

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06-09-2010, 01:05 PM
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B.) Sign him for a one-year $3M deal (worst case scenario) and say that you're getting paid this based on one year, if you want to get paid this again next year, keep it up. Team can take him to arbitration I think if he has a bad year and bring it down some (15%, so that would be $2.55M).
I wouldn't say this is the worst case scenario. The going rate for a 30 goal scorer isn't necessarily 3million. Legwand, Dumont got 4.5m for a career average of around 20 goals.

Dustin Prenner got 4.2m as a RFA, in a season very similar to Hornq.

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06-09-2010, 01:15 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
probably bonuses. Im sure being a nashville native and Hobey Baker winner his agent thinks Geoffrion should get a maxed out rookie contract like a high 1st rounder would normally get. I suspect Poile is not willing to give that to a guy who will likely be in milwaukee at least a year or two...
I saw the quote where he's agent said something like Nashville will never have the opportunity to sign a native Nashvillivan and college player of the year...

Sickening. First off, When does where you live have ANY play in how much money you get? He may have some bargaining with the Hobey Baker win, but I can't remember the last old (22 year old) Hobey Baker winner that went on to have a successful NHL career. There is a reason you spent 4 years in college. You did play great until your last year. Paul Kariya was a Hobey Baker winner as an 18 year old, and scored 100 points in 39 games. He was too good for college. So, there is no similarity except you have the same trophy.

He should get a good 2nd round draft pick contract, that's all.

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06-09-2010, 01:18 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by dulzhok View Post
I wouldn't say this is the worst case scenario. The going rate for a 30 goal scorer isn't necessarily 3million. Legwand, Dumont got 4.5m for a career average of around 20 goals.

Dustin Prenner got 4.2m as a RFA, in a season very similar to Hornq.
Dustin Penner got signed to what was considered an off the wall offer sheet by Edmonton, though. It's not really a comparable situation, unless Hornqvist gets offer sheeted.

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06-09-2010, 01:30 PM
  #44
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I didn't realize we could lose Geoffrion so soon. I guess that is what happened with Blake Wheeler and Phoenix.

....just another offseason speed bump for me to be nervous about.

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06-09-2010, 01:39 PM
  #45
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Dustin Penner got signed to what was considered an off the wall offer sheet by Edmonton, though. It's not really a comparable situation, unless Hornqvist gets offer sheeted.
Can still be used in arbitration, from my understanding.

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06-09-2010, 01:47 PM
  #46
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I saw the quote where he's agent said something like Nashville will never have the opportunity to sign a native Nashvillivan and college player of the year...

Sickening. First off, When does where you live have ANY play in how much money you get? He may have some bargaining with the Hobey Baker win, but I can't remember the last old (22 year old) Hobey Baker winner that went on to have a successful NHL career. There is a reason you spent 4 years in college. You did play great until your last year. Paul Kariya was a Hobey Baker winner as an 18 year old, and scored 100 points in 39 games. He was too good for college. So, there is no similarity except you have the same trophy.

He should get a good 2nd round draft pick contract, that's all.
I'm not sure you could have taken the agent's comments more out of context. He is saying Nashville won't have this opportunity again, not because they don't want to sign, but because of the unique circumstances of a Hobey Baker winner from a nontraditional hockey market being drafted by his hometown team. Also, did you forget to read this quote ""The flip side of that coin is Blake would like to take his best shot playing for his hometown team.""

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06-09-2010, 02:09 PM
  #47
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The most blatant example is all 3 of our "big" free agent signings (Arnott, Dumont, Kariya) have all said publicly that they had to contact Poile to get a discussion started.
um, you are misremembering. Poile was the first one on the phone with Kariya. I didtinctly remember him saying that was one of the things that impresssed him.

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06-09-2010, 02:11 PM
  #48
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Can still be used in arbitration, from my understanding.
have we even verified that Horn is eligible for arbitration?

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06-09-2010, 02:23 PM
  #49
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I'm not sure you could have taken the agent's comments more out of context. He is saying Nashville won't have this opportunity again, not because they don't want to sign, but because of the unique circumstances of a Hobey Baker winner from a nontraditional hockey market being drafted by his hometown team. Also, did you forget to read this quote ""The flip side of that coin is Blake would like to take his best shot playing for his hometown team.""
It sure sounded me to like he's petitioning to get a bigger contract.

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06-09-2010, 02:31 PM
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um, you are misremembering. Poile was the first one on the phone with Kariya. I didtinctly remember him saying that was one of the things that impresssed him.
Maybe I'll take your word for it. But, Arnott and JP for sure had to call him.

Another example-- Don Wadell said they'd would have been willing to trade for Peverly after they picked him up on waviers.

Also, we've never signed someone to an extension the offseason before they were due to be UFA/RFA.

These are just a few examples. We have a passive/patient/play-it-out/safe/whatever-you-want to call it GM. The few execptions are a couple of trade deadline deals (which may have been Leipold induced). Sometimes it's works, sometimes it doesn't.

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