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Why Do the Habs Suck at Drafting in the 1st Round?

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Old
06-11-2010, 12:13 PM
  #1
montreal
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Why Do the Habs Suck at Drafting in the 1st Round?

In the modern era, over 30 years of drafting (1980 to 2009), the Habs have drafted 35 players in the first round in 28 drafts ('99 and '08 they traded their 1st rounder)

Out of the 35 players they drafted in the 1st round, only 8 have been impact players with more then 2 seasons with the Habs. (Svoboda, Corson, Stevenson, Koivu, Komisarek, Higgins, Kostitsyn, Price) Half of those 8 were drafted this decade, so from 1980 to 2000 the only real success we had in the 1st round was a great player in Koivu, a solid 4th liner in Stevenson and 2 quaility players in Svoboda and Corson.

I know that Timmins work has been beaten to death around here and the jury is still out on Kostitsyn/Price/Pacioretty while it's too early with Leblanc but I like what I see from him at least. (and to be fair it's not Timmins fault Price/Pac were rushed to the NHL) But with Chipchura and Fischer being a bust for us already and McDonagh being traded you can see why fans are concerned with our 1st round picks.

Since the draft is 2 weeks away, I thought I would post this as a team that has so many current NHLers (as well as coaches) I find it strange that in 30 years we have struggled so badly in the 1st round. Granted I tend to think that where a player is drafted is overrated, but for most fans they will be more familiar with the 1st round.

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06-11-2010, 12:16 PM
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i dont think it has anything to do with talent, i think its a question of development, media hype, over passianoate/impatient fans creating high ceilings for young prospects so on and so forth.

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06-11-2010, 12:16 PM
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maybe it gets to their heads when ur picked 1st overal for the habs, and screws up their development? at least im sure the glory doesnt help. and some get braught up to soon.

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06-11-2010, 12:20 PM
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It just has to be the scouting, and nothing more. Either Timmins, and management, puts too much faith in our scouts... or Timmins just sucks when raw talent stares him in the face.

I attribute first round flops to more than just one man, but to the entire management team for not doing their homework.

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06-11-2010, 12:26 PM
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montreal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habs View Post
It just has to be the scouting, and nothing more. Either Timmins, and management, puts too much faith in our scouts... or Timmins just sucks when raw talent stares him in the face.

I attribute first round flops to more than just one man, but to the entire management team for not doing their homework.
This isn't a bash Timmins thread, since I'm talking about 30 years of drafting and his picks are still more of an unknown since only one is anywhere close to hitting his prime. The reason I put this thread was more for the long haul, why is it over 23 years before Timmins that we have almost nothing to show for our 1st round draft picks. It's not just bad, it's downright brutal. When the only thing you really have to show from 23 years of 1st round picks is Koivu, Svoboda and Corson no wonder the Habs have been so bad since they greatness of the '70's.

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06-11-2010, 12:31 PM
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While I agree that we haven't that done well in 1st round, you can't expect a lot of big time names. If you do same thing with a random team(picking at about our spots) you're bound to get similar results.

I also think it's unfair to mention up to 2009(or even 2005 in this case) if you plan to say "the jury is still out". Carey Price is a starter, franchise goalie? we don't know yet. That should count for something.

In last 10 years, our first round picks are:

Leblanc-too young
Mcdonagh-not with us anymore but AFAIK will make NHL
Pacioretty-will make NHL, just getting more seasoning
Fischer-bust
Price-Starting goalie with top 10-franchise goalie potential
Chipchura-Didn't work out, but loved in anahiem
Kostitsyn-decent, but inconsistent talented scorer
Higgins-Good two-way forward who had excellent seasons for us
Komisarek-We'll miss him. Physical presence on back end, may be a leaf, but still decent player and good shot blocker.
Perezhogin-can play NHL but left.
Hainsey-top 4 D, not worth his money of course but decent.
Hossa-bust

It doesn't seem that bad.

Lets look at a team like...Calgary:

Erixon-too young
Nemisz-too young
Backlund-Will be a good player if all goes well
Irving-Hasn't dominated AHL by any means.
Pelech-23, in the system but not high end potential.
Chucko-bust i guess
Phaneuf-Once considered franchise D, traded but still good.
Nystrom-good 4th liner
Kobasew-14th overall, different team, decent player. Did little WITH calgary(if him staying counts)
Krahn-9th overall goalie now with dallas playing minors, 1 nhl start and hes 28 years old.


Then there's teams who dominate 1st round, but suck in the 2nd. So honestly, a whole round skipped subban for instance. Goes both ways.

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06-11-2010, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habs View Post
It just has to be the scouting, and nothing more. Either Timmins, and management, puts too much faith in our scouts... or Timmins just sucks when raw talent stares him in the face.

I attribute first round flops to more than just one man, but to the entire management team for not doing their homework.
It's though to call it bad scouting. Take a look at the past draft previews. Most of the players we took were liked by most scouts. So Timmins and his crew saw the same thing as the others.

A player's development can go in many different ways after being drafted. A bust from a team could have become a valuable player to another organization. Look at Latendresse and Pouliot. They changed team and became instantly better.

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06-11-2010, 12:37 PM
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Well that is a 22% rate of return on are 1st round's what is the normal %?

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06-11-2010, 12:39 PM
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King Woodballs
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but really when you constantly pick in the middle of the draft year in and year out what does one expect?

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06-11-2010, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by montreal View Post
In the modern era, over 30 years of drafting (1980 to 2009), the Habs have drafted 35 players in the first round in 28 drafts ('99 and '08 they traded their 1st rounder)

Out of the 35 players they drafted in the 1st round, only 8 have been impact players with more then 2 seasons with the Habs. (Svoboda, Corson, Stevenson, Koivu, Komisarek, Higgins, Kostitsyn, Price) Half of those 8 were drafted this decade, so from 1980 to 2000 the only real success we had in the 1st round was a great player in Koivu, a solid 4th liner in Stevenson and 2 quaility players in Svoboda and Corson.
So since 2000, we've produced twice as many first round players in half the time. I feel these are pretty good results.

Quote:
Since the draft is 2 weeks away, I thought I would post this as a team that has so many current NHLers (as well as coaches) I find it strange that in 30 years we have struggled so badly in the 1st round. Granted I tend to think that where a player is drafted is overrated, but for most fans they will be more familiar with the 1st round.
What would constitute "good results" with regards to drafting first round players? What percentage of first round players should make the NHL for an average scouting department, and for a great one? How does this compare to the habs and rest of the league?

And even more importantly: is the sample studied (in the case of Timmins, his 7? first-round draft picks since he has joined the habs) sufficient for performing any statistical analysis?

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06-11-2010, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Habs View Post
It just has to be the scouting, and nothing more.
Why? What makes you believe that?

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06-11-2010, 12:53 PM
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how many times habs drafted in top 10 ?

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06-11-2010, 12:57 PM
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The habs tend to go with the" safe pick" meaning they "should" make the NHL, but won't be anything special. Whenever the habs gamble on a "could-be-star", then gamble at the wrong time.

Instead of going for dynamics and getting a great player, or a bust, they go for a safe player and get a bust.

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06-11-2010, 01:00 PM
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saints96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
The habs tend to go with the" safe pick" meaning they "should" make the NHL, but won't be anything special. Whenever the habs gamble on a "could-be-star", then gamble at the wrong time.

Instead of going for dynamics and getting a great player, or a bust, they go for a safe player and get a bust.
example?

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06-11-2010, 01:02 PM
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OK well I will sort it out in three tiers. The first one who we drafted, the second is the next player picked after our pick and the third is the next player of the same position drafted.

real draft:
2000-Ron Hainsey
2000-Marcel Hossa
2001-Mike Komisarek
2001-Alexander Perezhogin
2002-Chris Higgins
2003-Andrei Kostitsyn
2004-Kyle Chipchura
2005-Carey Price
2006-David Fischer
2007-Ryan McDonagh
2007-Max Pacioretty
2009-Louis Leblanc

next player:
2000-Vaclav Nedorost
2000-Alexei Mikhnov
2001-Pascal Leclaire
2001-Jason Bacashihua
2002-Jesse Niinimaki
2003-Jeff Carter
2004-Lauri Korpikoski
2005-Gilbert Brule
2006-Bobby Sanguinetti
2007-Lars Eller
2007-Janthan Blum
2009-Chris Kreider

same position: (all forwards I am considering same position)
2000-Brooks Orpik
2000-Alexei Mikhnov
2001-Dan Hamhuis
2001-Adrian Foster
2002-Jesse Niinimaki
2003-Jeff Carter
2004-Lauri Korpikoski
2005-Tuukka Rask
2006-Bobby Sanguinetti
2007-Kevin Shattenkirk
2007-Mikael Backlund
2009-Chris Kreider

So after looking at this you can not say that the Habs are horrible at drafting in the first round.


Last edited by Habsrule: 06-11-2010 at 01:28 PM.
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06-11-2010, 01:05 PM
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I think the Calgary comparison is fair. They've been pretty mediocre in the last 20 years (one deep run, mostly early playoff exits), and they're atrocious. I think the Habs go for the safest pick rather than the best pick. Ex. Chipchura was never going to be a 1st line centre with 90 points. Mike Green had the potential to be the Mike Green we know, he could have also been a huge bust. David Fischer wasn't going to be a commanding #1 Dman, and Claude Giroux had a chance to not even make the league. It's picks like that that attribute to the fact that our crop amounts to mediocre players instead of a variety of busts and stars.

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06-11-2010, 01:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotsauce514 View Post
how many times habs drafted in top 10 ?
Since 2000 we have had a top 10 pick 3 times

Komisarek: 7th overall
A.Kostitsyn: 10th overall
Price: 5th overall

Now Komisarek is hopeless but he still had some great years with us and if he can get his head out his *** he will be a great shutdown D

A.Kostitsyn is inconsistent but he still shows flashes of greatness. People always think hes a bust because of who went after him, but IMO he isn't really a bust. We can all agree that A.Kostitsyn will be a 30 goal scorer and lets be honest here 25-30 goal scorers aren't exactly "busts".

Price is a #1 goalie in the NHL. People always think just because Halak played more this year it means Price isn't a #1 goalie. Price will likely be a Cam Ward type goalie in the near future.

3 top 10 picks and IMO we hit on all 3

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06-11-2010, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saints96 View Post
example?
We took that "home run shot" with Andrei Kostitsyn and missed out on other players. We took the "safe pick" in Chipchura and missed out on others.

Montréal needs to take a gamble, but they won't, because if they do, they screw it up. Not completely, as Akost is still a good player for us and will be as long as he stays in the NHL. McFarland and Kabanov are those type of risks for this up coming draft.

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06-11-2010, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Habsrule View Post
OK well I will sort it out in three tiers. The first one who we drafted, the second is the next player picked after our pick and the third is the next player of the same position drafted.

real draft:
2000-Ron Hainsey
2000-Marcel Hossa
2001-Mike Komisarek
2001-Alexander Perezhogin
2002-Chris Higgins
2003-Andrei Kostitsyn
2004-Kyle Chipchura
2005-Carey Price
2006-David Fischer
2007-Ryan McDonagh
2007-Max Pacioretty
2009-Louis Leblanc

next player:
2000-Vaclav Nedorost
2000-Alexei Mikhnov
2001-Pascal Leclaire
2001-Jason Bacashihua
2002-Jesse Niinimaki
2003-Jeff Carter
2004-Lauri Korpikoski
2005-Gilbert Brule
2006-Bobby Sanguinetti
2007-Lars Eller
2007-Janthan Blum
2009-Chris Kreider


So after looking at this you can not say that the Habs are horrible at drafting in the first round.
Interesting.
The only picks that were better than us were: Carter, Sanguinetti and Eller. You can make a very convincing argument for Blum and Kreider, but right now, those two guys are top prospects in the league, but our guys (Pacioretty and Leblanc) are still very promising, and right now could go either way.

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06-11-2010, 01:11 PM
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Normally Montreal, you're the one who answers those type of question's, not asking them.

I think we have to stop with this obsession of drafting kids from the USHL/ NCAA route. Timmins sees it as a way for young players who can develop their skills in 4 years instead of 2 and thus having having a lot more time to sign them too. The problem is that 1.when you hit 20 you have to move up in competition or you still stale as a player and 2. Those players aren't even close of playing enough games in a season.

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06-11-2010, 01:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyG View Post
Since 2000 we have had a top 10 pick 3 times

Komisarek: 7th overall
A.Kostitsyn: 10th overall
Price: 5th overall

Now Komisarek is hopeless but he still had some great years with us and if he can get his head out his *** he will be a great shutdown D

A.Kostitsyn is inconsistent but he still shows flashes of greatness. People always think hes a bust because of who went after him, but IMO he isn't really a bust. We can all agree that A.Kostitsyn will be a 30 goal scorer and lets be honest here 25-30 goal scorers aren't exactly "busts".

Price is a #1 goalie in the NHL. People always think just because Halak played more this year it means Price isn't a #1 goalie. Price will likely be a Cam Ward type goalie in the near future.

3 top 10 picks and IMO we hit on all 3
I'm not going to judge here, but all three picks were were at worst, good picks. We could have Hemsky, Getzlaf and Kopitar right now, but I'm still more than happy with those three guys, who were very good, can't miss prospects. Many a scouts have done much worse with much better picks.

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06-11-2010, 01:19 PM
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montreal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
While I agree that we haven't that done well in 1st round, you can't expect a lot of big time names. If you do same thing with a random team(picking at about our spots) you're bound to get similar results.
Well I don't care about other teams, I only care about the Habs and I do find it odd that the most historic team in the sport, the best they can come up with in 23 years of 1st round picks is Koivu. Three quality players in the 1st round over that long of a time frame is brutal imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
but really when you constantly pick in the middle of the draft year in and year out what does one expect?
I expect the Habs to draft well in the 1st round, not to totally suck donkey balls.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldthorpe View Post
So since 2000, we've produced twice as many first round players in half the time. I feel these are pretty good results.
Your happy with our 1st round picks since '00?

Quote:
Originally Posted by hotsauce514 View Post
how many times habs drafted in top 10 ?
6 out of 28 (Wickenheiser, Svoboda, Ryan, Komi, Kosty, Price)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post


Normally Montreal, you're the one who answers those type of question's, not asking them.

I think we have to stop with this obsession of drafting kids from the USHL/ NCAA route. Timmins sees it as a way for young players who can develop their skills in 4 years instead of 2 and thus having having a lot more time to sign them too. The problem is that 1.when you hit 20 you have to move up in competition or you still stale as a player and 2. Those players aren't even close of playing enough games in a season.
Everyone knows how bad were we in the '90's, but after looking over all our 1st round picks from 1980 to now, I was surprised to see just how bad it was for us.

Really this isn't about Timmins, I guess I should of left him out since it's just too soon to really say what we will get out of his 1st rounders, although it's not looking all that great currently. It's really more about how badly we sucked from 1980 to 2000 with our 1st rounders, it's no wonder the Habs have been more or less a major disappointment over that span (aside from the 3 cup runs)

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06-11-2010, 01:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InglewoodJack View Post
I'm not going to judge here, but all three picks were were at worst, good picks. We could have Hemsky, Getzlaf and Kopitar right now, but I'm still more than happy with those three guys, who were very good, can't miss prospects. Many a scouts have done much worse with much better picks.
Hemsky was drafted 13th overall (we have 7th overall)
Getzlaf was drafted 19th overall (we had 10th overall)
Kopitar was drafted 11th overall (We had 5th overall)

How stupid would it have been if at the time of the draft we drafted a player who was supposed to go 5-10 spots after our pick?

2-3 spots after OK (example Kostitsyn 10 Carter 11th. That we can say we missed)

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06-11-2010, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by InglewoodJack View Post
I'm not going to judge here, but all three picks were were at worst, good picks. We could have Hemsky, Getzlaf and Kopitar right now, but I'm still more than happy with those three guys, who were very good, can't miss prospects. Many a scouts have done much worse with much better picks.
Wow, could you imagine our team with those 3 in it

Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal View Post


Everyone knows how bad were we in the '90's, but after looking over all our 1st round picks from 1980 to now, I was surprised to see just how bad it was for us.

Really this isn't about Timmins, I guess I should of left him out since it's just too soon to really say what we will get out of his 1st rounders, although it's not looking all that great currently. It's really more about how badly we sucked from 1980 to 2000 with our 1st rounders, it's no wonder the Habs have been more or less a major disappointment over that span (aside from the 3 cup runs)
I wasn't talking about Timmins, it's the obsession of drafting American players. I get that most of them are really good skaters, but with the points i mentionned earlier, i would try and avoid it unless i see a REALLY special talent.

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06-11-2010, 01:28 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by montreal View Post
Your happy with our 1st round picks since '00?
I don't know. How many 1st round picks should have made the NHL for you to be happy? All of them? Half of them? Whatever is your answer to this question, why it is your answer?

I'm not trying to be obtuse here - if we can't even agree on basic premises like that, how can we have any kind of meaningful discussions?

Should Washington fans be happy that Ovechkin scored 50 goals this season? Why? Because they compared him to other players from other teams, and from this comparison 50 goals is very high. But without this comparison, any evaluation of Ovechkin is useless. I could say that he missed more shots than he scored. Would such an analysis be fair to him?

Evaluating drafts is no different.

If every other teams always produced NHLers from their first round pick, then no, I wouldn't be satisfied with Timmins draft. But it's not the case; actually, I think only 60% of first rounder make it. I know that Timmins is bellow that threshold. But is it because he really sucks at drafting first round players, or is it because the sample size (7? players) is so low, that any exceptional circumstances would change the analysis (ex: Chipchura injury in Junior)? For reference, keep in mind that typically, many statistical tests only become interesting when the sample is above 30...

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