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Why Do the Habs Suck at Drafting in the 1st Round?

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Old
06-11-2010, 12:32 PM
  #26
hototogisu
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Who was the last forward we drafted that hit 90+ points for us? Stephane Richer? That's been our Achilles heel. Obviously drafting 90+ point forwards isn't easy but to not have one do it in 20ish years is brutal.

We can draft good goalies, good defense, good complimentary forwards...but it's a star forward that's eluding us for what seems like forever now.

I realize I'm stating the obvious but man...I hope it turns around soon.

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06-11-2010, 12:36 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Who was the last forward we drafted that hit 90+ points for us? Stephane Richer? That's been our Achilles heel. Obviously drafting 90+ point forwards isn't easy but to not have one do it in 20ish years is brutal.

We can draft good goalies, good defense, good complimentary forwards...but it's a star forward that's eluding us for what seems like forever now.

I realize I'm stating the obvious but man...I hope it turns around soon.
You realize finding a 90pts forward in the 10th-25th overall range is pretty hard

We drafted a 65 point defenseman in Markov...

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06-11-2010, 12:43 PM
  #28
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Unsure if problem is the drafting (at least recently). When Carey Price won that world jr., who wasn't excited about his potential and could notice his talent? When Andrei Kostitsyn fell all the way to us, who wasn't excited that we had a top end talent on our hands that could be the game breaker we look for. Even with Chipchura, you could tell there was certainly talent there, he was likely inhibited by the injury he received. Talent has been noticeable in the first rounders in the last 10 years.

I think there are two reasons the Habs haven't been successful in the first round the past few years. The first factor is we haven't had a first rounder out of the OHL or the QMJHL. I firmly believe in BPA, but I have found it has happened to many times that BPA does not come from these two leagues. How many stars have we seen out of the OHL and the QMJHL in the last 10 years, especially the OHL? I'm all for the benefits of drafting NCAA players but for the love of god diversity is necessary.

The second problem I think is what happens after the players are drafted. Rushed too quickly or not fast enough, whatever it is, something happens to them during their development, something key is missing. I suspect it may be sports psychology/motivation, I could be wrong.

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06-11-2010, 12:44 PM
  #29
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Over 30 years, there's obviously more than one reason. At one point, we had a pretty bad scout looking at the WHL (Serge Savard's era) and we drafted players that weren't good enough even for the AHL, but at the time, drafting big guys was important. The Montreal-Quebec rivalry made us draft some pretty weak players also, but the competition was well above the ice (Molson vs O'keefe).

Overall it is not that bad if we look at what some of those picks did in other cities (Cassels, Hunter, Chorske), but expectations are high in Montreal and we may lack patience sometimes. But overall, first rounders above the 15th are not that important if you draft good players with your 2nd and 3rd round picks (Lemieux, Richer, etc), we are not very good at this anymore (no need to post Subban says hello).

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06-11-2010, 12:46 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post
I wasn't talking about Timmins, it's the obsession of drafting American players. I get that most of them are really good skaters, but with the points i mentionned earlier, i would try and avoid it unless i see a REALLY special talent.
I had a long phone conversation with the head scout of ISS a number of years ago when they were first getting started and he said to me that your going to see the landscape of scouting change since the NCAA had just changed the rule on drafting kids out of the USHS and USHL. He said your going to see a lot more US kids picked in the draft as they are making big strides in their development program. From the number of US kids getting picked each year, it seems as though we will see more US kids picked not less (talking about the entire NHL of course not just Timmins)

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Originally Posted by Goldthorpe View Post
I don't know. How many 1st round picks should have made the NHL for you to be happy? All of them? Half of them? Whatever is your answer to this question, why it is your answer?
I'm not trying to be obtuse here - if we can't even agree on basic premises like that, how can we have any kind of meaningful discussions?...
It's not about how many make the NHL, it's why is it we continue to struggle when it comes to 1st round picks.

This team has done very little in the NHL since '93, and a big part of that is our poor drafting in the 1st round along with poor development and poor asset management.

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06-11-2010, 12:51 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyG View Post
Hemsky was drafted 13th overall (we have 7th overall)
Getzlaf was drafted 19th overall (we had 10th overall)
Kopitar was drafted 11th overall (We had 5th overall)

How stupid would it have been if at the time of the draft we drafted a player who was supposed to go 5-10 spots after our pick?

2-3 spots after OK (example Kostitsyn 10 Carter 11th. That we can say we missed)
Well, from experience, any ranking-to-pick movement of 5 or less is perfectly normal (Ex: Player A is ranked 15th by ISS and is drafted 10th or 20th moves by 5). I think Hemsky could have been taken at 7th, and Kopitar was reportedly high on Timmins/Gainey/HF's list for the Habs. But that wasn't my point. Had we taken the best players we could have (in hindsight), we'd have a great team. But no one does that, and we got three solid players too.
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Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post
Wow, could you imagine our team with those 3 in it
That would be awesome! But again, hindsight.

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06-11-2010, 12:55 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by montreal View Post
I had a long phone conversation with the head scout of ISS a number of years ago when they were first getting started and he said to me that your going to see the landscape of scouting change since the NCAA had just changed the rule on drafting kids out of the USHS and USHL. He said your going to see a lot more US kids picked in the draft as they are making big strides in their development program. From the number of US kids getting picked each year, it seems as though we will see more US kids picked not less (talking about the entire NHL of course not just Timmins)
Ya but we drafted American players in the 1st round in 2001, 2002, 2006, twice in 2007, our 1st pick in 2008 with Kristo and Leblanc who played in the USHL in 2009. I could be wrong, but it's just an opinion on your question. Players need to play a lot more then 30 games a season.

BTW, i'm extremely that more American players are being drafted, that means the sport is growing down south, witch is a + for every hockey fan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by InglewoodJack View Post
.

That would be awesome! But again, hindsight.
That's the problem with NHL draft if you compare it to the NFL draft, it's way harder to evaluate potential at 17 years old then it is at 22/23.

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06-11-2010, 01:00 PM
  #33
DDs not undersized
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I said it already but I think Timmins is excellent (probably the best in the NHL) to identify the qualities that can make a prospect an NHL player (size, speed, grit, defensive awareness, etc.). But I also think he is awful when it's time to identify what makes a player a high end talent who can produce offensively on a regular basis (quality of shot, hockey sense, lateral vision, quality of passes, pure skills, etc.)

I think this is why he's so bad in the 1st round, but so good in the following ones. It seems like he's picking players based on the same criterias in every round. But in the 1st round, you have to be able to identify "pure skills". "Size + speed" alone don't make a player an all-star.

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06-11-2010, 01:06 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottyG View Post
You realize finding a 90pts forward in the 10th-25th overall range is pretty hard
Quote:
Originally Posted by hototogisu View Post
Obviously drafting 90+ point forwards isn't easy
No, I was not aware.

But really, the "finding a 90 point forward at 15-20" argument is a weak one. First of all, plenty of star offensive players can be found past the #15 slot - just look around the league over the years. Some were picked #1, some were picked #200, and some in between. And I'm not saying we have to draft one every year - but not one in 20 odd years is pretty inexcusable and the most obvious blight on our drafting record.

Our drafting record is a lot like the majority of players we draft in recent years - good, just not great.

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06-11-2010, 01:09 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by kent_carlson View Post
Over 30 years, there's obviously more than one reason. At one point, we had a pretty bad scout looking at the WHL (Serge Savard's era) and we drafted players that weren't good enough even for the AHL, but at the time, drafting big guys was important. The Montreal-Quebec rivalry made us draft some pretty weak players also, but the competition was well above the ice (Molson vs O'keefe).

Overall it is not that bad if we look at what some of those picks did in other cities (Cassels, Hunter, Chorske), but expectations are high in Montreal and we may lack patience sometimes. But overall, first rounders above the 15th are not that important if you draft good players with your 2nd and 3rd round picks (Lemieux, Richer, etc), we are not very good at this anymore (no need to post Subban says hello).
Makes sense that it would be more then one factor since we are talking about 28 years of 1st round picks, with little to show for it. The '90's WHL scout sure did bomb it and the Habs have paid the price for a decade. Thankfully Andre Savard and Timmins were able to turn things around from bleak to pretty good for the most part, but we'll see how it goes with Kostitsyn/Price/McDo/Leblanc.

I did notice that a number of our '80's picks did well with other teams, I wasn't sure what was the case behind that since it was before my time, so that makes me start to lean towards poor asset management.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post
Ya but we drafted American players in the 1st round in 2001, 2002, 2006, twice in 2007, our 1st pick in 2008 with Kristo and Leblanc who played in the USHL in 2009. I could be wrong, but it's just an opinion on your question. Players need to play a lot more then 30 games a season.

BTW, i'm extremely that more American players are being drafted, that means the sport is growing down south, witch is a + for every hockey fan.
Well the interesting part with US kids is how much the programs are improving before they hit the NCAA. Also for playing 30 games, it's only the ivy league that plays that few. The rest of the NCAA can play anywhere from 36 to 46 depending on how far they go in the playoffs (cause every team in the NCAA makes the playoffs) and if they make the frozen four. I know it's not a lot more in the number of games played but I just wanted to point that out for those that are reading this thread that don't really follow the NCAA.

With the USNDTP playing against NCAA programs and internationally, they are facing a tough level of competition. Of course we haven't picked many kids from the USNDTP (Komi, Kristo) In addition your now seeing kids from obsecure places in the US getting drafted. Kids from Florida, Texas, Arizona, California, etc.. instead of the usual Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mass, etc...

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06-11-2010, 01:16 PM
  #36
Le depisteur
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That is very strange. The 1st round performance during the last 20 years was abyssal, no doubt. Then, it is easy to think it is due to lack of quality scouts. But, the facts are the others picks (after 1st round) were very good, better than the majority of teams.

In this case, we can think it is due to a problem with the team development philosophy or whatever… But, why did the others picks have been a good development???

Very strange fact, very strange… I have to say it could be a question of bad luck in the first round…

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06-11-2010, 01:40 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Le depisteur View Post
That is very strange. The 1st round performance during the last 20 years was abyssal, no doubt. Then, it is easy to think it is due to lack of quality scouts. But, the facts are the others picks (after 1st round) were very good, better than the majority of teams.

In this case, we can think it is due to a problem with the team development philosophy or whatever… But, why did the others picks have been a good development???

Very strange fact, very strange… I have to say it could be a question of bad luck in the first round…
One other MAJOR reason on the matter could be how those players developed after they've been drafted, maybe our trainers suck donkey balls, maybe we don't pay enough attention to our young players needs (i.e : Why the **** didn't Chipchura get skating lessons between hockey seasons???). They all need special attention and how they develop or the confidence they have at specific times can impact there development, a lot.

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06-11-2010, 02:25 PM
  #38
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There's a detailed article on the Habs drafting here:

http://habswatch.blogspot.com/

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06-11-2010, 02:53 PM
  #39
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It is my opinion that Timmins has a great eye for third liners. In saying that, my philosophy when drafting in the first round is I am looking for a top six player/top 2 D or a staring goalie. Looking at the last few first rounders they have drafted-Fischer was not physical or great offensively or had great hockey sense, not a very good work ethic-not really a top 4 kind of guy. Chipchura-great character, average skills, below average skater-potential 3rd liner. McDonough- very good skater, good character, average skills-bottom 4 D.
I wouldn't mind drafting Chipchura in the second round, Fischer more of a third round-long,long term project, McDonough-second rounder. Point is that even though we are supposed to be going for the BPA, I have trouble believing that this has been the case. Perhaps they were placing way value on some specific evalution criteria and missed big time on some drafting. Remember, I am talking only firsts only.
Personally, I would emphasize skills (including hockey sense), skating, competitiveness & character, dedication to fitness, and size. Try to find the best combo of each without really ommitting one. I think they have ommitted too many. My two cents.

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06-11-2010, 02:58 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post
One other MAJOR reason on the matter could be how those players developed after they've been drafted, maybe our trainers suck donkey balls, maybe we don't pay enough attention to our young players needs (i.e : Why the **** didn't Chipchura get skating lessons between hockey seasons???). They all need special attention and how they develop or the confidence they have at specific times can impact there development, a lot.
But why, year after year, the 1st round pick is NOT the best pick among all picks of a draft year by the Habs??? That's the true question given by Montreal...

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06-11-2010, 03:04 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Le depisteur View Post
But why, year after year, the 1st round pick is NOT the best pick among all picks of a draft year by the Habs??? That's the true question given by Montreal...
Because of development, that's what I'm implying. How the heck do you know if the player we drafted was the best at that period?

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06-11-2010, 03:10 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Maxpac View Post
Because of development, that's what I'm implying. How the heck do you know if the player we drafted was the best at that period?
You never know, but on a long period of time, the 1st round pick is supposed to be sometimes the best than others round picks... Not never!

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06-11-2010, 03:12 PM
  #43
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It's not about how many make the NHL, it's why is it we continue to struggle when it comes to 1st round picks.
You're just restating the same thing. What does it means concretely to struggle in the first round? What percentage of your first round picks must make the NHL/play 100 games/become star players for your draft to be considered a success and, if not, a sign of us "struggling"?

You know I respect you a lot montreal, so please don't see my insistence on this as some kind of penis-length contest, it's not. It's just that I feel this is a very important question, primordial to any discussions on the matter, and I'm amazed nobody tries to answer it.

It's like asking if a player scoring 10 pts in a season is "struggling" or not without knowing his league, the number of games he participated in, or even what sport he played. And assuming you find out the number of games he played is 14, does it means he would score 58pts in 82 games? Or would you be naturally wary of evaluating a player on only 14 games? A few bad (or good) games here and there could make all the difference... Yet, people don't seem to have any issue in claiming Timmins can't draft in the first round after a ridiculously small sample of 7? first round picks...

(I know your OP is about the draft in the last 30 years or so, and I'm only talking about Timmins. But it's because I don't see the point in analyzing the habs draft history on that scale. The scouts and management weren't the same. I agree the habs draft in the 80-90 was pathetic - I just think the reasons have nothing to do with how the draft is today)

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06-11-2010, 03:20 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Goldthorpe View Post
You're just restating the same thing. What does it means concretely to struggle in the first round? What percentage of your first round picks must make the NHL/play 100 games/become star players for your draft to be considered a success and, if not, a sign of us "struggling"?

(I know your OP is about the draft in the last 30 years or so, and I'm only talking about Timmins. But it's because I don't see the point in analyzing the habs draft history on that scale. The scouts and management weren't the same. I agree the habs draft in the 80-90 was pathetic - I just think the reasons have nothing to do with how the draft is today)
I'm not going to sit here and spell it out as everyone is going to have a different meaning on a success 1st round pick. I don't care about what % make the NHL, I only care about the Habs. I don't care how many games they play either. I care about the success of the club.

I only added Timmins because of the heat he's getting as guys he passed over kicked our ass in the playoffs while guys he picked disappointed or are already busts. I added Timmins on the whole, since something is not right when you have 30 years of 1st round picks and little to show for it. I agree it's too short a sample size for Timmins since most are a few years away from even hitting their prime. But still can't be too happy with the way things have gone, since out of every one of Timmins picks sans Leblanc, either they are busts, have been traded or have regressed while with our club, which has to be a concern to everyone.

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06-11-2010, 03:48 PM
  #45
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The Habs need to draft quality OHL players in the first round. They should be using their "4 years down the road after US college" picks in the later rounds. What other team has consistently gone after young American players who are college bound?
Some players have better futures by graduating, than playing hockey. If I was Leblanc, I would complete my degree at Harvard before considering turning pro.

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06-11-2010, 05:07 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Bitterman View Post
There's a detailed article on the Habs drafting here:

http://habswatch.blogspot.com/
Thanks, that's pretty interesting. I don't know who is behind this, but his criteria for success is interesting. Let's wait for part 2.

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The Habs need to draft quality OHL players in the first round. They should be using their "4 years down the road after US college" picks in the later rounds. What other team has consistently gone after young American players who are college bound?
Some players have better futures by graduating, than playing hockey. If I was Leblanc, I would complete my degree at Harvard before considering turning pro.
OHL? What is the % of busts from the OHL? No need to single out one league, the BPA can be from any league.

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06-11-2010, 05:17 PM
  #47
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S.Savard and R. Houle drafted poorly most years, especially in the first round. They compounded the problem by trading away many of their best players to save money at the insistence of the old Molson regime.

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06-11-2010, 05:40 PM
  #48
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Isn't the answer about determining our average draft position since Timmins and comparing it to other teams within that that same average position + - a few. I'm sure that will eliminate some teams who we should avoid when evaluating. Maybe 9 or 10 teams should be crossed off.

We can't just compare our draft history with hypothetical avg. position of say 15 with a team that has avg. position of 7 or another with 24.


Right or wrong?

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06-11-2010, 05:55 PM
  #49
Bitterman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
Isn't the answer about determining our average draft position since Timmins and comparing it to other teams within that that same average position + - a few. I'm sure that will eliminate some teams who we should avoid when evaluating. Maybe 9 or 10 teams should be crossed off.

We can't just compare our draft history with hypothetical avg. position of say 15 with a team that has avg. position of 7 or another with 24.


Right or wrong?
Well, If you want to look at just the time period that Timmins has been running the draft there are really just 3 Drafts that you can start to critique:

2003: Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre, Ryan O'Byrne, Jaroslav Halak

2004: Kyle Chipchura, Mikhail Grabovski, Gregory Stewart, Mark Streit

2005: Carey Price, Guillaume Latendresse, Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn

Most evaluators seem to be stopping with the 2005 draft because it's too soon to pass judgment. It's a shame Chipper was badly injured, at least twice AFTER being drafted as I recall and lost a step that turned him into a fringe 3/4 liner.

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06-11-2010, 05:58 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal View Post
In the modern era, over 30 years of drafting (1980 to 2009), the Habs have drafted 35 players in the first round in 28 drafts ('99 and '08 they traded their 1st rounder)

Out of the 35 players they drafted in the 1st round, only 8 have been impact players with more then 2 seasons with the Habs. (Svoboda, Corson, Stevenson, Koivu, Komisarek, Higgins, Kostitsyn, Price) Half of those 8 were drafted this decade, so from 1980 to 2000 the only real success we had in the 1st round was a great player in Koivu, a solid 4th liner in Stevenson and 2 quaility players in Svoboda and Corson.

I know that Timmins work has been beaten to death around here and the jury is still out on Kostitsyn/Price/Pacioretty while it's too early with Leblanc but I like what I see from him at least. (and to be fair it's not Timmins fault Price/Pac were rushed to the NHL) But with Chipchura and Fischer being a bust for us already and McDonagh being traded you can see why fans are concerned with our 1st round picks.

Since the draft is 2 weeks away, I thought I would post this as a team that has so many current NHLers (as well as coaches) I find it strange that in 30 years we have struggled so badly in the 1st round. Granted I tend to think that where a player is drafted is overrated, but for most fans they will be more familiar with the 1st round.
We've drafted pretty well for our 1st round picks actually. You aren't likely to get superstars picking 15th overall. Komisarek, Chipchura, Hainsey, Higgins, Kosti and Price are all decent picks for where we got them. What were you expecting?

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