It should come as no surprise to anyone on these boards to know that I am about as big a McIlrath fan as anyone. I have been hyping him up for the past year and with good reason.
Over the past few months he has slowly be steadily moved up in the rankings and has pretty much moved into a mid teen to low 20 range. Now many people feel that he is one of the few upcoming draft picks that can offer something the others can't...he can fight. Yes he can but what has moved him up the charts is not his fighting ability.
After the World Juniors Moose Jaw traded Travis Hamonic to Brandon. This opened gave McIlrath to expand his role with the Warriors. He was paired with a smaller offensive minded guy in Ryan Stanton and was given power play time. Anyone who watched McIlrath in teh second half of the season saw a player who was already a solid safe defensive player add a whole lot of offensive play to his game. They also noted that someone who was knocked for his skating wasn't actually THAT BAD a skater. You really noticed it in the playoffs against Calgary were McIlrath was one of the better if not best players during the series. Many scouts marvelled at his new found offensive game while still retaining the same physical style that brought him to many people's attention to begin with.
Positives
Fighting. While some have called him the toughest player in the WHL he isn't. He is the toughest 17 year old and he has fought alot of the toughest guys in the WHL with some success. He has a solid chin and his massive reach give him an advantage. I can't see to many guys wanting to fight with next season.
Hitting. Will throw one to two huge hits a game. Will always finish his checks hard and is incredible tough to anyone in front of the net.
Shot. Has a very hard slap shot. Something he utilized more later in the season.
Defense. Good coverage in his own end. Starting to "think" the game alot more as the season went along. Anticipates a lot better. Safe first pass and able to get the puck off the boards and out if in trouble.
Cons
Skating. Really seems to be working on this. Once he gets up to speed he is really fast. First step needs work. Improving
Lateral Movement. Alot of bigger guys take longer to get better at this. I thought he struggled with this as a 16 year old and has improved alot.
Gap Control. Again when your skating and lateral movement are weak this will be as well. Basically you have too much space between you and the forward coming down on you because you don't want to get beat to the outside or inside. From what I saw compared to the start of the season till the playoffs he has greatly improved it but needs to work on it.
Offensive instinct. Again when your first priority is defense this is something you don't work on. But if he wants to be an all around player he needs to add this to his game. This includes knowing when to pinch,shoot or just keep the puck low.
We already have Theo Peckham,Alex Plante,Kyle Bigos and a fighter with Cameron Abney in the system why should we spend some assets to go after him?
I am a firm believer that you build a team with a Big,Mean,Nasty puck moving defense. A future back end of Gilbert, Whitney,Petry,Peckham,Plante,McIlrath would not be easy to play against at all. Couple that with our group of superb scoring forwards you have a good combination for success. Plus there is never any sure things but Big defenders who are tough and can skate seem to find a way to the NHL.
What would it cost us? Depends. I am thinking he could go from 15 on. You would need to target a team willing to move down. Our 31st overall pick would come into play and possibly someone like Nash or even Cogliano.
In conclusion I will go out and say that people will compare McIlrath to another Western league Defender who was Big,Tough,great shot but had skating issues, Shea Weber. At worse your going to get a player like Robyn Regher.
If Edmonton does this, they are clearly drafting based on need and not necessarily the BPA. Having said that I doubt that he is even avaiable with the 31st overall pick. There is always something about big kids that dominate physically that tends to make them look better then they actually are.
Having said that if they take him with the 31st I wouldn't be mad, just think that their are better options.
It takes a long time to learn the game as well as a guy like Robyn plays it. They don't come ready made to play that way out of junior, it takes years and it's impossible to say which ones will get it and which ones won't.
That's why I always like gifted forwards over everything else in the draft. It's a shorter curve to make it to the point where they can be useful at the NHL level.
I like McIlrath though. I think the "worst case scenario" is a lot less Robyn Regehr, and a lot more Matt Carkner. That's why I'm not really that cool with trading multiple top-61 picks for that middle-of-the-first round hole that McIlrath may or may not go in.
Carkner and Sutton are good examples except they never developed an offensive game in Junior or College. One of the biggest reasons why McIlrath is a late climber was his sudden surge offensively. He also has some similarities with Brayden Mcnab drafted last year in the 3rd round except Mcnab dropped quite a bit because of very poor showing at the u18s. The thing with McNab is he has a fantastic year this past season in the WHL getting 57 points,playing very physical and getting invited to Team Canada's world junior evaluation camp.
Absolutely trade up to the 15 to 20 range to get him, some people don't understand depth charts and BPA doesn't always work so you take BP per position and best player for an organization. See Cult of Hockey today.
How do you compare him to Alex Petrovic? Maybe it's because he's a local, but I'm hoping he's the one that EDM takes at #31.
Petrovic is a good safe defensive player. Petrovic doesn't really excel at anyone thing though. It is probably why he doesn't get slotted into the first round. He is probably a safe bet to be a NHL player one day but perhaps will not end up as a top 2 guy there are alot of guys like him around the league, Good Size,can skate and move the puck and can be underwhelming.
Hitting. Will throw one to two huge hits a game. Will always finish his checks hard and is incredible tough to anyone in front of the net.
Shot. Has a very hard slap shot. Something he utilized more later in the season.
Defense. Good coverage in his own end. Starting to "think" the game alot more as the season went along. Anticipates a lot better. Safe first pass and able to get the puck off the boards and out if in trouble.
Cons
Skating. Really seems to be working on this. Once he gets up to speed he is really fast. First step needs work. Improving
Lateral Movement. Alot of bigger guys take longer to get better at this. I thought he struggled with this as a 16 year old and has improved a lot.
I would prefer to keep #31 in this years draft....
But a package of Riley Nash, the #48 pick (Grebeshkov trade), and taking back a one year remaining "slightly overpaid" contract on a player we could use...
Or Souray & Nash to the LA Kings (they have cap space) if McIlrath is still available...
Rebuild - do it right - build a pipeline of players that have a unique talent that separates them from the crowd... McIlrath is one of those players...
Excellent summary JH! I too saw McIlrath against the Hitmen in first round playoffs. He was a force and has significant upside.
I think he goes even higher than projected to Phoenix with their first pick. That will give them a next generation big, physical defensemen to complement their skills guys on the backend. A similar Dub guy was Wade Belak drafted first round for caveman like toughness and okay tool kit as a defender. While Belak did not realize his potential, the guy has carved out a 10 NHL career. I think that is a very worst case scenario for McIlrath. Upside might be a Souray-type player with strong physical game, minute muncher ... hopefully without the selfishness.
There are also poster comments made about Regehr and his development verus innate ability that are completely off the mark. Regehr was out of the box excellent as a Flames debuting at 19 within four months after suffering two broken legs. I saw him live a ton in his rookie year and could not believe the guy's calm and ability and physicality playing with men... and doing so after such a major injury. I projected Regehr as a prospective Norris hopeful based on how good, how young he was. He won't get there but Regehr was a special player early and not at all an example of a development model.
McIlrath is a solid prospect with distinctive skills and, if a team views him as also having ice-berg like untapped potential, is someone I view may surprise by going higher than projected. I know I liked what I saw in the Dub playoffs.
To much like Plante for my liking, and I think he follows the same path of development.IMO.
If we are going to move up for a dman, we might as well go after the #4 pick from Columbus and draft and Gromley or Grundbuson(sp?). That is a safer bet IMO.
To much like Plante for my liking, and I think he follows the same path of development.IMO.
Except Plante was actually more skilled at his age and could skate better. Plante had better credentials than McIlrath which speaks volumes about the riskiness of picking McIlrath above 25. There will be many talented players available at number 15, and this pick could become quite an eyesore in years to come as we watch players picked below McIlrath develop into strong NHL players. McIlrath has mid-second round skills but seems to be dazzling some in the hockey world with his fighting prowess, big hits, and size.
Imo, we could trade up into the 20-25 range and take Tinordi, who imo looks like the better player...i think he has more dimensions to his game...he skates better, looks to have more offensive potential, and can still be mean and is very big...probably doesn't like to fight as much, from what I have read, and maybe doesn't throw huge hits, but I've read for a guy his size he can at times try too much to push his offensive game...I would rather a big try making the effort to improve his weak part than shy away from it...a combo of size, strength, skating, great bloodlines, and a bit of a mean streak sounds good to me
with that being said, IIRC McIlrath was interviewed on the pipeline show and he specifically said that he modelled his junior game after Shea Weber....he said he intentionally didn't look for offense b/c, like Weber, he wanted to make sure he was perfectly sound defensively when we made the jump into the NHL and that he would really push his offensive potential once in the NHL, also like Weber. He also said that given his PP role increasing later in the year, he said that next year he expected even more of an offensive responsibility, so it seems he is making the effort.
I really like the idea of drafting McIlrath. I'm only worried that it would be drafting by need. I admit to playing the voyeur on other clubs boards, and McIlrath's name comes up often. Honestly, I think it's a little bit of a crap shoot predicting how he will develop.
Last year I was on the Kassian bandwagon, big time. I never dreamed MPS would drop to us, but I was all for drafting Kassian ahead of players such as Glennie, Kadri, Ellis, Schroeder and Kulikov. Certainly Kassian looks good now, but in retrospect I would have difficulty selecting him ahead of some of those players now. Particularly, Kadri, Ellis and most likely Kulikov. I'm not completely sold on any of them at this point.
I really can't imagine, even though he hasn't played a game at the NHL level yet, that anyone can question the MPS pick at the ten spot. We were absolutely blessed at last years draft.
I'm very leery of this guy. There is no doubt that we badly need a big tough D-man with a mean streak but the simple question is can this guy play? When I see cons such as suspect skating and lateral movement I see a big pylon.
To much like Plante for my liking, and I think he follows the same path of development.IMO.
If we are going to move up for a dman, we might as well go after the #4 pick from Columbus and draft and Gromley or Grundbuson(sp?). That is a safer bet IMO.
He's nothing like Plante. Of all the guys on the ice to watch and try to keep game notes of this guy jumps out at you in a good way. If Huddy was still here he'd **** his pants to pick this kid. By that I mean, he's got the size, the speed his skating is absolutely beautiful, but he's still nlot closing the gap in the middle. He's coachable, which means he has flaws in his game still that he wants to address. His gap closing really does need a lot of work, if you want to try cutting outside he'll kill you, try cutting inside and you've got a free shot and a rebound if you're lucky as sin.
I love this kid, but yeah, to agree with you I woudn't trade up to get him. If he's there at 31 you freaking take him, no questions asked, if not oh, well.. there's other picks out there.
I'm very leery of this guy. There is no doubt that we badly need a big tough D-man with a mean streak but the simple question is can this guy play? When I see cons such as suspect skating and lateral movement I see a big pylon.
His lateral skating is absolutely stunning, probably the best part of his game actually. His problem is that he starts 3 feet from the boards and tries and almost succeeds in cutting a guy off going down the middle, (why he does this is beyond me, he should be funnneling the guy to go towards the boards from center). I think he feels as though maybe the LD is going to cover up the middle or something. He's absolutely not a pylon, good God you don't wanna try to beat him wide. By the same token though he's going to likley take three years before he's NHL ready IMHO.
If you throw him in the NHL next year he turns into Jason Smith
If you put him into the NHL two years from now he's Shea Weber
If you put him in after three years he's the next Pronger
Not joking.
It really depends on coaching and how fast he's rushed IMO. Give this kid the right coaching, the right amount of time and he's golden.
If you throw him in the NHL next year he turns into Jason Smith
If you put him into the NHL two years from now he's Shea Weber
If you put him in after three years he's the next Pronger
If the worst case scenario is Jason Smith, I'd invest a mid to late 1st round pick on McIlrath....
If the worst case scenario is Jason Smith, I'd invest a mid to late 1st round pick on McIlrath....
Why not let another team use a high pick and develop him on their time, then trade for him then?
The problem with defencemen who bring very little in terms of offense is that they rarely live up to either their contract or their draft position. You can find guys like Jason Smith on other teams, and they get traded around quite regularly. These guys just don't drive results very much and get far too much credit for what they do accomplish.
If he's around at 31 I can understand taking him... but trading up makes very little sense.
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TheSpecialist - MacT thinks he was that good of a hockey player when in actuality he was no better then a Louie Debrusk.
Big, tough, defensive d-men are for later rounds. Unless, they're great skaters, have a high hockey IQ or have an offensive game. I don't think any of those points apply to McIlrath right now. There will be many much more talented players available in the mid first round. The drop off from McIlrath to someone like Tinordi isn't high enough to warrant the cost of moving up in picks.
