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The Be all end all statistical comparison of Price vs. Halak 2009-2010 Regular Season

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Old
06-16-2010, 11:15 AM
  #26
Ohashi_Jouzu
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Are you 100% sure on the #s? I thought they were deadlocked at .916.
That part I'm pretty much 100% about (I counted 691/759). The GAA I'm confident in to about the 1/10th decimal point.

edit: I should clarify that I'm not using hindsight to assign any blame here. Huet asking for more money and longer term -> Price performing well enough to justify being given the job -> Halak still winning the #1 job within a few years, was always a possibility. It's just a bit disappointing (mostly for those who were/are really excited about Price) that it shook down like that and led us to the decisions that have to be made this year.

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06-16-2010, 11:20 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
That part I'm pretty much 100% about (I counted 691/759). The GAA I'm confident in to about the 1/10th decimal point.
After some digging, seems about right. However, I'd like to mention that Huet played terrible for weeks before the trade. That's why they made the move.

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06-16-2010, 11:23 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
After some digging, seems about right. However, I'd like to mention that Huet played terrible for weeks before the trade. That's why they made the move.
Also, wasn't Price sent down to hamilton for 10 games? He probably was favored by the organization, but he wasn't given the position on a silver platter, which people would have you believe. He didn't steal the position away from huet, but he wasn't a scrub either for a 19 year old.

Upon his return from hamilton in 07-08 he won 6 of his next 9 games.

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06-16-2010, 11:28 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
After some digging, seems about right. However, I'd like to mention that Huet played terrible for weeks before the trade. That's why they made the move.
He had a so-so February, but it's a little ridiculous to assume that's why he was traded, as opposed to talks they probably had with him regarding what his possible demands would be in the off-season (re: salary and term) leading up to the trade deadline. If that was their mindset, they could have similarly determined from Price's last half of November and early December that he wasn't quite ready.

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Originally Posted by Koseegin View Post
Also, wasn't Price sent down to hamilton for 10 games? He probably was favored by the organization, but he wasn't given the position on a silver platter, which people would have you believe. He didn't steal the position away from huet, but he wasn't a scrub either for a 19 year old.

Upon his return from hamilton in 07-08 he won 6 of his next 9 games.
Yes, in January, after the stretch I just mentioned above.

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06-16-2010, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
He had a so-so February, but it's a little ridiculous to assume that's why he was traded, as opposed to talks they probably had with him regarding what his possible demands would be in the off-season (re: salary and term) leading up to the trade deadline. If that was their mindset, they could have similarly determined from Price's last half of November and early December that he wasn't quite ready.
It was a combination. Huet wasn't on a good streak, demanding a lot of money and Price was a good goalie, who could use the playing time and experience and bring similar results to Huet.

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06-16-2010, 11:31 AM
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
It was a combination. Huet wasn't on a good streak, demanding a lot of money and Price was a good goalie, who could use the playing time and experience and bring similar results to Huet.
Yeah, I mean, that much isn't really in dispute. The context of this whole discussion, though, is management turning a blind eye to Halak throughout the process, hence the "#1 job given to Price" (as opposed to actually competing with Halak for it) discussion.

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06-16-2010, 11:34 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Yeah, I mean, that much isn't really in dispute. The context of this whole discussion, though, is management turning a blind eye to Halak throughout the process, hence the "#1 job given to Price" (as opposed to actually competing with Halak for it) discussion.
Maybe the habs just felt like they had to justify Price's draft position, that's why he was favored, even though Halak had similar if not better accomplishments? (not refuting what you are saying, just suggesting something else)

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06-16-2010, 11:39 AM
  #33
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Maybe the habs just felt like they had to justify Price's draft position, that's why he was favored, even though Halak had similar if not better accomplishments? (not refuting what you are saying, just suggesting something else)
Oh, yeah, totally valid. We've had that discussion around here ever since. I can't think of any examples in history that suggest keeping him in the AHL for a year or two would have been a mistake, but not every team plays in such a demanding market, or is subject to the degree of momentum that excitement generates, either. Not to say fans dictated the move (at least not to any appreciable extent), but the owners and management obviously consider the expectations of the fans at least a little bit (and likely feel obliged to try to justify themselves/their decisions at least occasionally/partially).


Last edited by Ohashi_Jouzu: 06-16-2010 at 11:46 AM.
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06-16-2010, 11:43 AM
  #34
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Oh, yeah, totally valid. We've had that discussion around here ever since. I can't think of any examples in history that suggest keeping him in the AHL for a year or two would have been a mistake, but not every team plays in such a demanding market, or is subject to the degree of momentum that excitement generates, either. Not to say fans dictated the move (at least not to any appreciable extent), but the owners and management obviously consider the expectations of the fans at least a little bit.
I'm glad you mentioned this last point because a lot of people don't think that media/fans can influence decisions and that it is ridiculous to think so, but I'm pretty sure there's is actual reason to believe that there is influence from fans, after all, this organization has said that french would be an absolute requirement for any coach/gm, which is only to please the media and fans.

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06-16-2010, 03:31 PM
  #35
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Once again guys thanks for the appreciation, I felt there were a lot of people looking at stats and drawing conclusions without evaluating all that was there and too Someone above, markov returned twice, once in jan/dec and again in march

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06-16-2010, 07:12 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
The injuries also interest me. It seems Halak flourished when we started getting the players back, whereas Price wasn't effected as much as he had a .910(ish) save percentage even before they returned. One could make a case Price can work with less, and one can make a case Halak makes the most out of more.

.
Exactly...

Halak replace Price THE GAME THAT MARKOV return into action

And after that, Halak gain momentum while Price lost some...

In the end, Price played less game with a full lineup that Halak. If Price would have played more, I pretty sure that his stats would have been as good as halak's.

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06-16-2010, 10:51 PM
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Once again guys thanks for the appreciation, I felt there were a lot of people looking at stats and drawing conclusions without evaluating all that was there and too Someone above, markov returned twice, once in jan/dec and again in march
Nice work Accident!

To add to the debate, I also compiled some data but I took a different approach by using game-by-game stats and comparing goalies to the ranking of opponents they faced. Compiling data took a long time and so I had less time to work on charts

I would have like to see how Halak and Carey compared on penalty kills but the required data seems difficult to gather.

Some observations:

Price had more games against teams in the top 20 and seemed to be more successful against better ranking teams but had trouble with the bottom 10.

Halak played teams in the bottom 10 almost twice as much than Price and was very solid with a save % over 0.92 in 14 out of 16 games. However, against the top 20, Halak seems slightly less efficient with a save % under 0.9 in 9 out of 22 compared to 9 out of 26 for Price.

Mostly, Price has taken part in games where his team was more widely out shot (in terms of shot differential) than Halak, especially against the top 10 teams.

On average, compared to Halak, the Canadiens scored fewer goals with Price in net. This is especially true if you look at games against bottom 10 teams, there is a significant difference.

Compared to Halak, Price has lost more games with a save % over 0.92. On the other hand Halak seemed more “lucky” with more wins with a save % under 0.9.

Halak had a save % over 0.95 in 16 games of the regular season.
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06-16-2010, 10:59 PM
  #38
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Nice work Accident!

To add to the debate, I also compiled some data but I took a different approach by using game-by-game stats and comparing goalies to the ranking of opponents they faced. Compiling data took a long time and so I had less time to work on charts

I would have like to see how Halak and Carey compared on penalty kills but the required data seems difficult to gather.

Some observations:

Price had more games against teams in the top 20 and seemed to be more successful against better ranking teams but had trouble with the bottom 10.

Halak played teams in the bottom 10 almost twice as much than Price and was very solid with a save % over 0.92 in 14 out of 16 games. However, against the top 20, Halak seems slightly less efficient with a save % under 0.9 in 9 out of 22 compared to 9 out of 26 for Price.

Mostly, Price has taken part in games where his team was more widely out shot (in terms of shot differential) than Halak, especially against the top 10 teams.

On average, compared to Halak, the Canadiens scored fewer goals with Price in net. This is especially true if you look at games against bottom 10 teams, there is a significant difference.

Compared to Halak, Price has lost more games with a save % over 0.92. On the other hand Halak seemed more “lucky” with more wins with a save % under 0.9.

Halak had a save % over 0.95 in 16 games of the regular season.
I think you just may have made all hell break loose.

Edit: Btw, using your statistics, which may be flawed for one thing, what if a goalie gets pulled? how many shots do they take while the other is in net or whatever?

That aside. The shot difference for while Halak was in net is unofficially -110, and for price, -178.


Last edited by LyricalLyricist: 06-16-2010 at 11:12 PM.
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06-17-2010, 01:33 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Edit: Btw, using your statistics, which may be flawed for one thing, what if a goalie gets pulled? how many shots do they take while the other is in net or whatever?
I forgot to mention, save percentages are based on shots faced by the goalie that was handed the decision of the game. If a goalie gets pulled out, the stats of the goalie playing less than half the game weren't considered.

I considered shots against to be more of a measure of how the team performed in a game, so those are total shots in a game. While the save percentages are averaged on the number of games played against a group of opponents.

It only happened 4 times anyway. Twice Halak was pulled after the second period, while Price was pulled once after the first 20 minutes and once during the third period.

07/10/2009 Vs Canucks Halak (3-3 1.0 sv %) replaced Price (L)
28/10/2009 Vs Pens Price (12-14 0.8571 sv %) replaced Halak (L)
13/02/2010 Vs Flyers Price (8-9* 0.8889 sv %) replaced Halak(L) * Penalty shot goal
07/03/2010 Vs Ducks Halak (W) replaced Price (8-11 0.7273 sv%)

This would make more of a difference in the 15 to 20 category.


Last edited by chpartisan: 06-17-2010 at 01:36 PM.
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