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Can we really get fair return for Carter?

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Old
06-19-2010, 11:49 AM
  #1
disorder
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Can we really get fair return for Carter?

Phil Kessel Return:

2010 1st from Tor which everyone knew would be a top 5
2010 2nd from Tor
2011 1st from Tor which figures to at least be top 15

This is a great return considering Toronto new Boston had to trade him, he was a RFA, and everyone knew he wanted to get paid.

The Carter situation isn't entirely the same but it's similar enough to where I'd think Carter would net a similar return. Kessel has some pluses over Carter but I think Carter's pluses out weigh Kessel considerably

Kessel Pro's when comparing to Carter
2 years younger

Kessel has better puck handling, passing, deking, and is the more dynamic player overall but I don't think he's considerable better than carter in any area.

Both of their shots are similar

Carter Pro's when comparing to Kessel
Carter is much better defensively/ Face offs

Carter while not physical is probably the tougher player

I might give the edge here to Kessel but based on this you don't trade Carter for any of the following:

Bernier
Schnieder
Price (which obviously isn't happening now)
Vokuon(who's too old)

All goaltenders who haven't proven anything while Carter is just as young and has had 2 almost All Star caliber years.

You especially don't trade Carter for the above when Halak, who's at least proven something, only returned a promising prospect, who hasn't logged enough time in the NHL, and a 4th liner.

Based on all of the above if your trading Carter you get either

Johnathan Quick - Young and minded net for a play off team
Tuuka Rask - Young and minded net for a play off team
Jarsolav Halk - Young and minded net for a play off team. Probably won't happen now.

If your thinking Bernier it would be appropriate for the Flyers to get more in return and considering the Kings are a good team 1st rounders are not going to cut it. Bernier + Schenn + late First

Schnieder + late first + Grabner

Vokoun + 3rd overall

I know I'm bias toward the Flyers but i can't be that far off here.

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Old
06-19-2010, 11:58 AM
  #2
JDinkalage Morgoone
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I would agree on the return Halak got, but Boston won't move Rask, I don't see LA moving Quick or Bernier just yet.

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Old
06-19-2010, 12:04 PM
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decadentia
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I'd take Carter over Kessel everyday of the week, even with my homer glasses off. Kessel is 5'11, 180lbs, worse defensively, worse at faceoffs in my opinion, and this is completely my own suspicion but I think he's going to have trouble with injuries in his career. I'm curious as to why Kessel is "more dynamic"

Anyhow, enough ranting from me...

I highly doubt we get a return like Kessel got, Burke spent a lot to acquire him. Personally if (and that's a big IF) he's traded, I think we may be slightly disappointed by the return...because we're hyping ourselves up for a King's ransom around here.

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Old
06-19-2010, 12:04 PM
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i agree, the value on all of these offers is fair and about right. Whether or not these teams would make these trades for jeff carter is another thing.

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06-19-2010, 12:46 PM
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Im sorry, Ill try and set my homerism aside, but if Jeff Carter is on the trading block this summer, he is unquestionably the most valuable player available. We also dont need to move him which gives us the luxury of setting his price. IMO, if his return is lackluster, its the fault of management. Carter is one of the more valuable commodities in the league.

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06-19-2010, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mdm815 View Post
Im sorry, Ill try and set my homerism aside, but if Jeff Carter is on the trading block this summer, he is unquestionably the most valuable player available. We also dont need to move him which gives us the luxury of setting his price. IMO, if his return is lackluster, its the fault of management. Carter is one of the more valuable commodities in the league.
i'd say kovy is the most valuable player available, and teams wouldn't need to trade assets to sign him aside from possible salary shedding.

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Old
06-19-2010, 01:58 PM
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you can not get fair return any time you are trading a front line player in any sport.( eg in basketball look at the trash we got for barkley). in hockey terms the last two big names were joe thorton and danny healy. did boston or ottowa get fair vaue for either?

the only alternative for carter would be hold him till the end of the 10/11 season. hopefully two teams will get in a bidding war and he will return either 4 first round picks or 2 first a second and a third. again this would all be cheap talent, the goal for any gm in a salary capped era.
if any team wants carter now let the bidding begin at 4 first round talents and not any over the hill goaltenders with high cap number.

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Old
06-19-2010, 02:08 PM
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Richyrich
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I might be in the minority here, but I don't think you can trade a 25 year old 40+ goal scorer. Not unless it's for a top goalie.

Also, Carter is better than Kessel. He's better defensively, stronger on the puck, has a better shot, and I think he's faster.

Kessel has better stick handling and dekeing, imo

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Old
06-19-2010, 02:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richyrich View Post
I might be in the minority here, but I don't think you can trade a 25 year old 40+ goal scorer. Not unless it's for a top goalie.

Also, Carter is better than Kessel. He's better defensively, stronger on the puck, has a better shot, and I think he's faster.

Kessel has better stick handling and dekeing, imo
Are you sure man? That's a pretty radical statement.

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Old
06-19-2010, 02:52 PM
  #10
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Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Are you sure man? That's a pretty radical statement.
He is easily the best goal scorer on this team, he is a great defensive player on top of that.

What you and I would deem "a fair return" other teams are unlikely to give up.


It's hard to move 40 goal scorers unless it's for picks/prospects and the current state of the flyers does not lend itself well to that. Also, read the sentence just after the one bolded

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Old
06-19-2010, 03:00 PM
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I'm hard on Carter, but trading him for someone like Kessel is ludacris. No thanks.

Also Eklund mentioned that the leafs like Giroux and Carter, imo theres NOBODY on that team that would be worth trading either of those 2 for.

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Old
06-19-2010, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richyrich View Post
He is easily the best goal scorer on this team, he is a great defensive player on top of that.

What you and I would deem "a fair return" other teams are unlikely to give up.


It's hard to move 40 goal scorers unless it's for picks/prospects and the current state of the flyers does not lend itself well to that. Also, read the sentence just after the one bolded
Haha, I was being sarcastic.

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Old
06-19-2010, 03:03 PM
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TSNBobMcKenzie It has been suggested to me that there's no chance Jeff Carter will be odd man out in PHI. More likely to be someone else. Interesting.

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Old
06-19-2010, 03:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyHigh View Post
Haha, I was being sarcastic.
I should let you know, I'm bad at detecting sarcasm in real life... even worse online

A would have helped, tho

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Old
06-19-2010, 03:11 PM
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JDinkalage Morgoone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deebo View Post
TSNBobMcKenzie It has been suggested to me that there's no chance Jeff Carter will be odd man out in PHI. More likely to be someone else. Interesting.
He has also suggested that Kaberle is rumored to Philly?

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Old
06-19-2010, 03:17 PM
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Haute Couturier
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That Schneider proposal is brutal. And no I do not think Quick is good enough return for Carter.

No I don't think they can get fair value for him. Carter will likely be the best player in the deal and you lose any trade where you are giving up the best player.

Unfortunately you can't even count on a Kessel like return because Burke thought he was going to be contending for a playoff spot when he made that deal. That deal doesn't happen if he knew where he was going to finish.

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06-19-2010, 03:20 PM
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Unfortunately you can't even count on a Kessel like return because Burke thought he was going to be contending for a playoff spot when he made that deal. That deal doesn't happen if he knew where he was going to finish.
That still cracks me up. 29 other teams knew that was insane.

Honestly, unless Phaneuf gets back to form, the Leafs are still a basement team. Regardless, they're not a playoff team.

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Old
06-19-2010, 04:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MsConduct11 View Post
I'm hard on Carter, but trading him for someone like Kessel is ludacris. No thanks.

Also Eklund mentioned that the leafs like Giroux and Carter, imo theres NOBODY on that team that would be worth trading either of those 2 for.
What about Seguin+

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Old
06-19-2010, 05:06 PM
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I actually saw Jeff Carter today, it was pretty cool. Didn't wanna be a jackass, so I didn't ask him about all this crap. I just joked around and asked when he is gonna sign a 12 year contract to stay here and he said hopefully sometime soon.

I know it means nothing, but it was pretty cool.

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Old
06-19-2010, 05:39 PM
  #20
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Meltzer on Carter

I thought this was a pretty good assessment. I happen to agree with the tendency to disappear for far too long...the streakiness is getting harder to accept with each passing year

Quote:
I am not among the people who are anxious to see Jeff Carter run out of Philadelphia. Even so, I fully understand that he is the team's most valuable trading asset and could bring something of value in return.

In descending order of urgency, the club's most obvious needs are 1) a starting NHL goaltender, 2) reversing a lack farm system depth and high-end draft picks, 3) upgrading the 4th, 5th or 6th defense spots, and 4) a power forward winger with 30-goal potential or a pure scoring winger.

I am not really sure what to think about the whole "he's a center playing out of position" argument that was used, along with injuries, to explain Carter's poor performance in the Final against Chicago.

First of all, Carter is more of a shooter than a playmaker and, considering the fact that his usually strong skating was hindered by his foot injuries, playing wing was the most viable option. Secondly, Claude Giroux was called upon to switch back and forth several times from center to wing during the playoffs, and did equally well at both positions. I realize that Danny Briere came alive when returned to his preferred center position (although Danny never gripes about playing wing). But as well as Briere played in his own right, the emergence of Ville Leino and revival of Scott Hartnell also played a big part in Briere's 30-point outburst in the postseason. It wasn't just the position he played.

Honestly, I think what happened to Carter in the Final is just more of the same pattern that he has followed for most of his career, save for the first half of the 2008-09 season: He got into a prolonged offensive drought and started to try to do too much rather than simplifying his game and focusing on just getting pucks in deep and using his size and strength to attack the net. Carter's entire career has been marked by hot streaks followed by equally long -- or longer -- stretches where he could hardly shoot a puck into the ocean.

I've made this same argument in past seasons, and tracked Carter's hot and cold streaks in past Hockeybuzz blogs. Here was his pattern from the 2009-10 season.

Regular season

* Hot streak first 5 games of the regular season (Oct 2 - Oct 10): 4 G, 3 A
* Cold streak next 6 games: 0 G, 3 A, 4 games with no points among the 6 played
* Hot streak next 5 games: 3 G, 5 A
* Cold streak next 4 games: 0 PTS
* Hot streak next 3 games: 2 G, 2 assists, points in each game
* Cold streak next 4 games: 0 PTS
* Two-goal game vs New York Islanders on Dec 8
* Resumed cold streak next 8 games: 1 G, 1 A, 6 games held pointless
* Hot streak next 7 games: 4 G, 6 A, points in 6 of 7 games
* Cold streak next 3 games: 0 G, 1 A, pointless in 2 of 3
* Hot streak next 5 games: 6 G, 2 A, points in 4 of 5
* Cold streak next 5 games: 0 G, 1 A, pointless in 4 of 5
* Hot streak next 3 games (Olympic break): 4 G, 0 A, goals in each game
* Hot streak next 7 games (return from Olympic break): 6 G, 1 A, points in 6 of 7
* Cold streak next 8 games (end of regular season, foot injury on March 21): 1 G, 2 A

Playoffs

* Cold streak first 3 games of New Jersey series: 0 pts, -3
* Two-goal game in Game 4 of New Jersey series -- broke foot on deflected second goal
* DNP in Games 1-7 of Boston series and Games 1-3 of Montreal series
* 0 PTS in Game 4 of Montreal series
* 2 goals in Game 5 of Montreal series -- GWG and an empty net goal
* Cold streak in 6-game Stanley Cup Final vs Chicago -- 1 G (ENG), 1 A (Game 2)

While this exercise can been done for any player in the NHL and you will find that everyone has their ups and downs, the biggest problem with Carter through his career has been has that his slumps go on for too long.

The shining exception was his pre-All Star Game performance in 2008-09, where he only had a single three-game and two-game mini-drought interspersed between consistent point production. Shortly after the break that year, he hit a nine-game skid but the balance of his season was still excellent.

Carter took an undeniable step backwards this past season. Dealing him could benefit the team in other areas without negative offensive impact if at least three among Briere, Giroux, Leino, Hartnell and Simon Gagne continue their playoff success (in Gagne's case, in the rounds preceding the Final) and if James Van Riemsdyk takes the next step in his NHL development. That's not a given by any means. Even so, if the right deal comes along, the Flyers need to make it.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-...mhuis/45/28868

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Old
06-19-2010, 06:01 PM
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4 first rd picks. theyll match anything up to that brown and bernier would be fair that plus teubert and a 1st is whatd take

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Old
06-19-2010, 06:18 PM
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I have a feeling that if we are going to trade carter it is going to be in the aftermath of where Kovalchuk ends up. Only one team can win him, and I anticipate that whoever loses will be knocking on Holmgren's door asking about Carter.

I think one of he, Carle or Coburn will be traded by the beginning of next season.

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Old
06-19-2010, 06:24 PM
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^^^there's a certain shark who will have an impact on the market for first line forwards as well.

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Old
06-19-2010, 06:25 PM
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^^^there's a certain shark who will have an impact on the market for first line forwards as well.
Ah, you have jolted my memory!

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Old
06-19-2010, 06:51 PM
  #25
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at this point i dont think we can get a reasonable return on a Carter trade..

so lets not bother...

we dont need to move him...

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