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Henderson, Lemieux & Crosby - Subtle Facts Behind Those Goals

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06-16-2010, 12:44 AM
  #1
Canuck44V
 
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Henderson, Lemieux & Crosby - Subtle Facts Behind Those Goals

Hi everybody, from Vancouver

This is my first post here. I wanted to check in because I spent some time looking into events relating to Henderson's 72 goal, the Gretzky-Lemieux goal of 87, and the one by Crosby this here at the 2010 games, and found a number of coincidences so dizzying that it's still hard for me to stand up.

I made a 3-page pdf file that you can look over and print up if you want to CLICK HERE.

The summary is based on a little video I did which is 18 minutes long. I would advise you to *check out the pdf first* as my video skills are not that great, and you might get put off before you 'get the message'.

This is part one of 'Super Natural Hat Trick ?"
This is part two.

I think this might be really interesting for hockey history buffs, especially when one considers the emotions leading up to these three great moments in hockey history, and what these goals mean to Canada.

Best, Mark in Vancouver


Last edited by Canuck44V: 06-29-2010 at 11:16 AM. Reason: fix links
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06-16-2010, 04:31 PM
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Big Phil
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Nice video, but the coincidences are just that, coincidences. It seems to me that if you look deep enough you'll find numbers that match up. I mean Canada's 14th Gold medal + Crosby's #87 = 1487 the exact number of games Gretzky played in the NHL? Hmmm, going fishing a bit I think.

The 6-5 score is not unusual though. This was 1987 with a TON of players in their prime on both sides. A nice coincidence, but nothing orchestrated. In fact other than in 2010, a famous final score for Canada/USA games is 5-2. It happened twice in the 1996 World Cup and of course in the 2002 Olympics. Nothing special

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06-16-2010, 07:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canuck44V View Post
Hi everybody, from Vancouver

This is my first post here. I wanted to check in because I spent some time looking into events relating to Henderson's 72 goal, the Gretzky-Lemieux goal of 87, and the one by Crosby this here at the 2010 games, and found a number of coincidences so dizzying that it's still hard for me to stand up.

I made a 2-page pdf file that you can print up if you want to. It is based on a little video I did which is 18 minutes long. I would advise checking out the pdf first, as my video skills are not that great, and you might get put off before you 'get the message'. (LOL)

CLICK HERE to go to theV.ca


I think this might be really interesting for hockey history buffs, especially when one considers the emotions leading up to these three great moments in hockey history, and what these goals mean to Canada.

Best, Mark in Vancouver
Fun Post.

The odds that you would have started it, and typed it exactly as you did, is absolutely astronomical. It would be like having Gretzky, Crosby and Lemieux all riding the same flying pig, all at the same time.

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06-17-2010, 06:35 AM
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FinnGoalie
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Nice video, but the coincidences are just that, coincidences. It seems to me that if you look deep enough you'll find numbers that match up. I mean Canada's 14th Gold medal + Crosby's #87 = 1487 the exact number of games Gretzky played in the NHL? Hmmm, going fishing a bit I think.

The 6-5 score is not unusual though. This was 1987 with a TON of players in their prime on both sides. A nice coincidence, but nothing orchestrated. In fact other than in 2010, a famous final score for Canada/USA games is 5-2. It happened twice in the 1996 World Cup and of course in the 2002 Olympics. Nothing special
Yes, and furthermore, OP might want to take a look into this...


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06-17-2010, 11:46 AM
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I remember getting this idea once because I saw a Bobby Orr video on his famous Stanley Cup diving goal. Somebody did a similar piece on how the number 4 showed up all over the place. It was very strange. By the time I was done reading it, I thought, "This must be what George Lucas really meant to say when he said, 'may the 4s be with you.'" Thanks for watching, y'all. Mark

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06-17-2010, 01:03 PM
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formula question

That's a great video, thanks for it. I totally agree that long odd events, when seen in isolation appear to be far less likely than they do when seen in a set, as in the birthday example.

I also get that 'coincidences' are measured in hindsight, and that there are no prophets (at least any ones worth paying). But there are certain 'key' moments or 'events' that do *intuitively* stand out among other events, such as these 3 goals in the context of the series they belonged to.

To return to Henderson though, I'm wondering, how would be the best way to frame the improbability of what he accomplished in scoring 3 gwgs in a row at the same time a set of 2 or 4 games began where those games ended with the same score. Here's what I've come up with...

If gwgs come at 10%, then it does seem inescapable, to me, that the odds there are 1000-1.

Its tough to assess the frequency of 6-5 scores, but I would bet that it was closer to 1 in 40 even in the prime time 80s. But let's split the difference and say 1 in 20.

Is it correct, to finish my question to then say that the odds would be
1/1000 x (1/20 x 1/20) for 2 games - 1 in 400,000 if we only count the improbability of what Henderson did in relation to 87 Final game? (as both games were huge events to Canadians and had the same score)

Or,

1/1000 x (1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20) - 1 in 1,600,000 if we count all 3 games of the 87 final along with Henderson's goal (and we count all three since they had the same final score as Game 8 - 72?)

Never minding the precise odds of 6-5 scores, does the formula check out here?

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06-17-2010, 04:46 PM
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Am I the only one that thought of Jim Carrey's movie The Number 23 when reading this thread? I think you can find any number if you really want to multiple times.

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06-17-2010, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Am I the only one that thought of Jim Carrey's movie The Number 23 when reading this thread? I think you can find any number if you really want to multiple times.
Funny that you would mention that. And of course you may be absolutely right. I honestly don't know. But the reason why I think the Carrey reference is funny because I saw the same sort of thing happening in The Truman Show. At some point I think Jim started noticing strange coincidences. But this time, instead of going 'insane', he found out he was in a movie. LOL.

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06-17-2010, 10:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canuck44V View Post
That's a great video, thanks for it. I totally agree that long odd events, when seen in isolation appear to be far less likely than they do when seen in a set, as in the birthday example.

I also get that 'coincidences' are measured in hindsight, and that there are no prophets (at least any ones worth paying). But there are certain 'key' moments or 'events' that do *intuitively* stand out among other events, such as these 3 goals in the context of the series they belonged to.

To return to Henderson though, I'm wondering, how would be the best way to frame the improbability of what he accomplished in scoring 3 gwgs in a row at the same time a set of 2 or 4 games began where those games ended with the same score. Here's what I've come up with...

If gwgs come at 10%, then it does seem inescapable, to me, that the odds there are 1000-1.

Its tough to assess the frequency of 6-5 scores, but I would bet that it was closer to 1 in 40 even in the prime time 80s. But let's split the difference and say 1 in 20.

Is it correct, to finish my question to then say that the odds would be
1/1000 x (1/20 x 1/20) for 2 games - 1 in 400,000 if we only count the improbability of what Henderson did in relation to 87 Final game? (as both games were huge events to Canadians and had the same score)

Or,

1/1000 x (1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20) - 1 in 1,600,000 if we count all 3 games of the 87 final along with Henderson's goal (and we count all three since they had the same final score as Game 8 - 72?)

Never minding the precise odds of 6-5 scores, does the formula check out here?
The problem is that you grab the 1 in 1000, without considering that Henderson did not score the GWG in the game before that (before the three in question) and start multiplying it by the 1 in 20's where those were not the scores (6-5) of 2 of those 3 games, just one of them,

I can cherry pick mild coincidences to death and come up with similar unlikelyhoods with very little effort. It can be entertaining but not much more.

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06-19-2010, 01:26 PM
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Fair Comment

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crosbyfan View Post
I can cherry pick mild coincidences to death and come up with similar unlikelyhoods with very little effort. It can be entertaining but not much more.
I totally respect your point of view and am glad that you and Big Phil mention it. I actually made a point of mentioning it in the REVISED VERSION of the pdf 'after' the critiques were aired. So, thanks for the input.

Now here's something funny, or ironic. For once both skeptic and believers would point to the same data to make their points on a matter like this. A 'believer' would say, 'see, here is evidence of 'design' and a doubter would, your right that it is evidence, but its just evidence of something that can be pulled from any set.

That being said, I mentioned also that I once found similar data based on Bobby Orr's famous Stanley Cup diving goal in 69-70. The data was presented by somebody else, and in that case everything centered on 4s.

This would be expected by skeptics, of course, but it is funny how, like these three goals, that moment sticks out in Canadians minds above so many others. (Remember the image of the OT goal by New Jersey back in 2000? etc)

I wonder what interested Americans might find from certain games that stick out in their mind, which would have to include the victory over the Soviets in the 80 Miracle on Ice, or other precious moments that European hockey players might find in relation to their nations' huge games. But that is a task I'll leave for others.

In any case, thanks for the commentary.

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06-19-2010, 05:52 PM
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Originally Posted by FinnGoalie View Post
Yes, and furthermore, OP might want to take a look into this...

I heart that video. Probabilities are fun.

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06-19-2010, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Am I the only one that thought of Jim Carrey's movie The Number 23 when reading this thread? I think you can find any number if you really want to multiple times.
oh my god, oh my god, I thought about that movie too!

that just canīt be a coincidence.


















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