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Oilers offered Cogliano for 15th ovr

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Old
06-26-2010, 04:13 PM
  #76
TheJudge
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Originally Posted by Xander Crews View Post
Not really. You mean the odds of getting less is 80%. The odds of getting a better player are not equal to how much better they are. So no its not me 'failing statistics', its you not understanding that has nothing to do with what i was saying. I was showing value, not odds.

Thats like saying the best of all (Ovechkins, Crosbys, etc) are $100 which is the best you can get... and you think Cogs is worth $80 almost as close. Id say the Parises, and Gezlafs are more like the $70-80 and Cogs being a 3rd liner is more like $10.
If a 2nd/3rd line center is worth $10, how much is a player who never makes the NHL, for even a single game, worth? There are TONS of those drafted in the mid first round.

Its possible to win the lottery. It's far more likely to spend your entire life wasting money on tickets.

In this case, you are giving up a guaranteed roster player in order to have a very small chance of drafting a star, and a very large chance of drafting a bust. Poor asset management.

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You can't always hit a home run. Sometimes it's good to take a double. Getting that 15 pick is just putting you back at the plate.
This works too.

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06-26-2010, 04:13 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
Cogliano would be worth a 2nd or 3rd from a team that already has a lot of size, and wants to add some speed. Philly would be a good place for Cogliano, as an example.
We just got a 2nd for Riley Nash, who's value was very diminished considering he wasn't going to sign here. I'd be willing to bet that #15 was going to Edmonton for Cogliano alone.

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06-26-2010, 04:16 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by ShadowFlyer View Post
You can defend it all you want. Hit me up when Cogs is traded for the equivalent of a mid-1st rounder. I won't hold my breath.
He was...his name was Dany Heatley...ring a bell?

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06-26-2010, 04:18 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by All Day View Post
Cogliano isn't worth a mid first rounder. Oilers fans...
Funny because, he'll easily slot into your top 6. Leaf Fans.....

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06-26-2010, 04:19 PM
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Cogs will stay imo, but I bet some team will make a 2.5 per offer sheet if we dont resign him.

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06-26-2010, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TheJudge View Post
If a 2nd/3rd line center is worth $10, how much is a player who never makes the NHL, for even a single game, worth? There are TONS of those drafted in the mid first round.

Its possible to win the lottery. It's far more likely to spend your entire life wasting money on tickets.

In this case, you are giving up a guaranteed roster player in order to have a very small chance of drafting a star, and a very large chance of drafting a bust. Poor asset management.
Thats how teams work... By your logic being a good asset manager would mean trading all your picks forever for average players. Cause after all the odds of you getting a star arent that good! This isnt a game where you win by playing it safe. You need to swing for the fence and make a pick in the draft to get those good players. Thats great to have an average player, but do you think the Devils would have been better off trading Parise for Cogs? or the Flyers trading Richards for Cogs? The point is Cogliano can be replaced easily through FA or later in the draft. Good luck finding a Richards in FA to sign with you. Sure you might end up with nothing from the draft... but you didnt lose anything either and there are plenty of 3rd liners to go around.

Also not sure what your definition of 'TONS' is. Tons of players from the first round dont make it to single NHL game? Really? So for you tons is like 2 or 3 out of 30?

PS - Stop using the lottery anaolgy... its stupid. The lottery is 100% random and a 1 in a billion shot to win. This the odds are waaaaaay better and you study the players and make decisions based on facts.

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Originally Posted by belair View Post
I'd be willing to bet that #15 was going to Edmonton for Cogliano alone.
Maybe it was offered alone... but thats why it was also rejected.

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06-26-2010, 04:54 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Xander Crews View Post
Maybe it was offered alone... but thats why it was also rejected.
I'm fairly certain there was a trade in place. Conditional on McIlrath still being available. That's why it didn't happen. But then again...this is all speculation, no fact. So I'll stop.

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06-26-2010, 05:00 PM
  #83
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He was...his name was Dany Heatley...ring a bell?
Oh, good call, because we all know it was Cogs straight up for Heatley.

He does not have the value of a mid-1st round pick. Get over it.

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06-26-2010, 05:16 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by ShadowFlyer View Post
Oh, good call, because we all know it was Cogs straight up for Heatley.

He does not have the value of a mid-1st round pick. Get over it.
Obviously we're not going to get one to agree with the other.

FYI, Cogliano was the one player who the Sens had the most interest in that particular deal. (Not to mention Heatley's value >>>>> Mid 1st). David Rundblad was dealt for the pick after #15, so I'm really not convinced by your argument.

Nevertheless, I'd prefer to keep Cogliano as he is still paying the Oilers dividends at likely a fairly decent price. While #15 sits in the juniors/minors over the next 2-3 seasons developing into a potential NHLer.

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06-26-2010, 05:17 PM
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If I'm not mistaken, when Cogliano was put on a line with Penner and Brule (some actual linemates) towards the end of the season, he put up like 16 points in 18 games.

When Dreger mentioned that the Oilers offered up Cogliano for the 15th, he seemed surprised. I think he said something along the lines of "Tambellini has been pursuing Florida's 15th overall pick, even offering up Andrew Cogliano".

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06-26-2010, 05:56 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by Xander Crews View Post
Also not sure what your definition of 'TONS' is. Tons of players from the first round dont make it to single NHL game? Really? So for you tons is like 2 or 3 out of 30?
I suppose I should have said there are tons of players who never make it to the NHL full time, or have a meaningful impact. There are plenty of below NHL caliber players who make it for an injury call up but never stick.

Please stop using 2003 as the basis for your argument. It was an anomaly, not the norm.

And yes, I would trade a mid-first rounder for a proven young 2nd/3rd liner every single day of the week. I'd have a much better chance of having that player make strides and reach 1st line potential then I would drafting a better player, or even an equal player.

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06-26-2010, 06:17 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by belair View Post
Obviously we're not going to get one to agree with the other.
True enough. I'm not trying to invalidate your opinion, I just don't agree with it. My take is that, if the Oilers could get anywhere near that return for Cogs, he'd have been long gone by now. You disagree, and I'm fine with that.

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Originally Posted by belair View Post
FYI, Cogliano was the one player who the Sens had the most interest in that particular deal. (Not to mention Heatley's value >>>>> Mid 1st). David Rundblad was dealt for the pick after #15, so I'm really not convinced by your argument.
Well, a potential top-4 defenseman with serious offensive upside (Rundblad) has more value than a current 3rd liner (Cogliano). Again, you disagree, and I'm fine with that.

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Nevertheless, I'd prefer to keep Cogliano as he is still paying the Oilers dividends at likely a fairly decent price. While #15 sits in the juniors/minors over the next 2-3 seasons developing into a potential NHLer.
That's fair. I suppose its also fair to say I'd rather have a potential top-6 forward (or top-4 Dman) developing in my system for 2-3 years, rather than a guy who looks more like a 3rd line speedster, the likes of which I can acquire in later rounds of the draft.

To each their own.

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06-26-2010, 06:30 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
Well, if Cogliano is worth the 15th to Oil fans, would you accept Andrei Kostitsyn for MPS? Think carefully before you answer.
TSN did a redraft and had MPS going 8th overall.

MPS > 15th pick

Cogliano and andrei are not so far apart in value

So i wouldnt trade andrie for 8-10 pick just like i wouldnt expect a team to trade 8-10 for cogliano.

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06-26-2010, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by ShadowFlyer View Post
That's fair. I suppose its also fair to say I'd rather have a potential top-6 forward (or top-4 Dman) developing in my system for 2-3 years, rather than a guy who looks more like a 3rd line speedster, the likes of which I can acquire in later rounds of the draft.

To each their own.
Its too bad that 22 year olds don't have any of that "potential" to improve their game as well...ahhh to be 18 again Third line speedsters are not that easy to find in later rounds of the draft...maybe 3rd line AHLers but not NHLers. For every example you give, I'll give you 30 that are nowhere near Cogs talent or "potential"

I guess that means JVR is only worth a late 2nd rounder since 78GP 15G 20A 35Pts< 82GP 18G 27A 45Pts Cogliano's rookie season

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06-26-2010, 06:59 PM
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Oilers fans...you have not answered my question... what is Frolik worth if Cogs is worth a #15 pick overall like a lot of you believe he is worth,ha.

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06-26-2010, 07:01 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by CanadianPantherFan View Post
Oilers fans...you have not answered my question... what is Frolik worth if Cogs is worth a #15 pick overall like a lot of you believe he is worth,ha.
Why dont you tell us what you think he's worth?, ha.

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06-26-2010, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CanadianPantherFan View Post
Oilers fans...you have not answered my question... what is Frolik worth if Cogs is worth a #15 pick overall like a lot of you believe he is worth,ha.
I'd be willing to give around the 7-10th overall for Frolik, if we are strictly talking draft picks.

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06-26-2010, 07:11 PM
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Its too bad that 22 year olds don't have any of that "potential" to improve their game as well...ahhh to be 18 again Third line speedsters are not that easy to find in later rounds of the draft...maybe 3rd line AHLers but not NHLers. For every example you give, I'll give you 30 that are nowhere near Cogs talent or "potential"
That's irrelevant, because none of those guys are worth a mid-1st rounder. Which was my point.

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I guess that means JVR is only worth a late 2nd rounder since 78GP 15G 20A 35Pts< 82GP 18G 27A 45Pts Cogliano's rookie season
Did you just compare Cogliano's potential to that of JVR?

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06-26-2010, 07:11 PM
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I'd be willing to give around the 7-10th overall for Frolik, if we are strictly talking draft picks.
That's not bad ,but I don't think it's enough. Need another pick in there or player for Frolik. In a weak draft, that pick would not likely be close...this year's draft...maybe. Frolik is not going anywhere,he's just an easy comparsion to Cogs (big difference being position,but other than that I think you can look at the two, and pick them apart to see who everyone would prefer over the other).

I asked a question to Oilers fans...if you can't give me a value for a guy like Frolik,then I don't think a lot of you should be saying that Cogs is worth a 15th overall pick or better.

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06-26-2010, 07:22 PM
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Did you just compare Cogliano's potential to that of JVR?
Potential ~ 1.possible, as opposed to actual: the potential uses of nuclear energy.
2. capable of being or becoming: a potential danger to safety.
No I was showing the actual production vs. the possible production.
There could potentially be a UFO flying over my house right now but smart money says it's actually a plane.

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06-26-2010, 07:29 PM
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Potential ~ 1.possible, as opposed to actual: the potential uses of nuclear energy.
2. capable of being or becoming: a potential danger to safety.
No I was showing the actual production vs. the possible production.
There could potentially be a UFO flying over my house right now but smart money says it's actually a plane.
OK, you convinced me.

Cogliano is a potential elite player, one whose value is higher than a mid-1st rounder, and you should hang onto him for dear life. Its very likely you have the next Steven Stamkos just hiding inside Cogs' body, ready to breakout at any moment.

Feel better?

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06-26-2010, 07:36 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by ShadowFlyer View Post
OK, you convinced me.

Cogliano is a potential elite player, one whose value is higher than a mid-1st rounder, and you should hang onto him for dear life. Its very likely you have the next Steven Stamkos just hiding inside Cogs' body, ready to breakout at any moment.

Feel better?
I never said he has the potential to be an elite player. He's been playing 3rd line with the Oilers only because of that stupid contract of Horcoffs. I think he can be a very servicable 2nd line centre much like he was in his rookie season.

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06-26-2010, 07:46 PM
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I never said he has the potential to be an elite player. He's been playing 3rd line with the Oilers only because of that stupid contract of Horcoffs. I think he can be a very servicable 2nd line centre much like he was in his rookie season.
Hey look, I like Cogliano. I think he's a great fit on a 3rd line, and can cause a ton of problems there with his speed.

I even think he has the ability to jump into the top-6 in spurts, and put together nice streaks, as he has shown in the past.

I just don't believe the guy is worth a mid-1st round pick. I think he's a guy you could package for a really nice pick, or a really nice player, but on his own, he just doesn't hold that much value at this time.

In a salary cap world, teams just aren't lining up to throw mid-1st round picks at guys like Cogliano. That's not a condemnation of the player, that's just a reality.

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06-26-2010, 07:56 PM
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Originally Posted by belair View Post
We just got a 2nd for Riley Nash, who's value was very diminished considering he wasn't going to sign here. I'd be willing to bet that #15 was going to Edmonton for Cogliano alone.
Cogs wouldn't have gotten the 15 overall alone if he could've the deal would've been done... Oilers wanted another 1st pretty bad by the sounds of it. The problem is with you GM thinking that MPS and Horcoff will land the 2nd overall and Cogs will land the 15 overall.... I bet he got laughed at with those offers, if they're true that is.

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06-26-2010, 08:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ShadowFlyer View Post
OK, you convinced me.

Cogliano is a potential elite player, one whose value is higher than a mid-1st rounder, and you should hang onto him for dear life. Its very likely you have the next Steven Stamkos just hiding inside Cogs' body, ready to breakout at any moment.
Now you're getting it. I remember arguing on these same boards at the beginning of last season about how Wolski was better than Cogliano. Well, the Oiler fans certainly put me in my place and showed me the error of my ways. It was certainly a great experience to be enlightened in such a way and now I can see that Cogliano may not have had the best season statistically but it was due to a whole bunch of external factors that do not involve Cogliano directly. He is truly elite.

I believe that Oiler fans simply offer him up in trade proposals to poke, taunt and tease the fans of the 29 other franchises. That's the only reason he's being offered all over the place, his value is through the roof but they secretly want to keep him until he retires.

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