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Oilers offered Cogliano for 15th ovr

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Old
06-26-2010, 08:48 PM
  #101
Drydenwasthebest
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Originally Posted by TheJudge View Post
I suppose I should have said there are tons of players who never make it to the NHL full time, or have a meaningful impact. There are plenty of below NHL caliber players who make it for an injury call up but never stick.

Please stop using 2003 as the basis for your argument. It was an anomaly, not the norm.

And yes, I would trade a mid-first rounder for a proven young 2nd/3rd liner every single day of the week. I'd have a much better chance of having that player make strides and reach 1st line potential then I would drafting a better player, or even an equal player.
What has Cogliano proven? That he can decline year after year? That he can not get more than 18 goals in a season? That he can not crack the top six on the worst team in the league even with all the injuries they had? He proved he can get a whopping 10 goals last season. Glen Metropolit scored 16 goals and 29 points last year, should Florida have given us the 15th pick for him? Would Edmonton have given Montreal the 31 st for him and would you have been happy with that trade?

Actually, Dominic Moore is a better example since he has the same points totals as Cogliano this year, and better totals last year. Dominic Moore cost Montreal a 2nd rounder. This season he scored 10 goals and 18 assists in 13 less games than Cogliano, who also scored 10, 18, 28 totals. The season before that Moore scored 13 goals and 32 assists for 45 points in 82 games where Cogliano scored 18 goals and 20 assists for 38 points in 82 games. So, are you telling me that Cogliano is worth the 15th overall when Dominic Moore is worth a second rounder even though Moore has more points in less games over the last two seasons? Again, would you have been happy to give Montreal the 31st overall for Moore?

Look, nobody is saying Cogliano is garbage, we are simply saying the guy is not worth a 1st round pick because he is simply "Joe Average" in the NHL, so far. Could he rebound and do better? Sure, look at Penner. Could he continue to regress? Yup, plenty of players have done that, too. Go look at most 3rd line centers, plenty scored 10 goals, none garner 1st round picks. Jarret Stoll has more points than Cogs over the last 3 years (even his 1st 3 years in the league he had more points than Cogliano), would he get a 1st round pick? No. Manny Malhotra had more points than Cogs over the last 2 seasons. He won't get a 1st in trade. The list goes on and on.

The reason the Oilers didn't get pick #15? If they only offered Cogliano you have your answer. It doesn't get any simpler. I wish Cogliano the best of luck, have nothing against the guy. However, at this point in his career, he is not worth a 1st round pick of ANY sort, just look at the numbers.

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06-26-2010, 08:55 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Bender View Post
Now you're getting it. I remember arguing on these same boards at the beginning of last season about how Wolski was better than Cogliano. Well, the Oiler fans certainly put me in my place and showed me the error of my ways. It was certainly a great experience to be enlightened in such a way and now I can see that Cogliano may not have had the best season statistically but it was due to a whole bunch of external factors that do not involve Cogliano directly. He is truly elite.

I believe that Oiler fans simply offer him up in trade proposals to poke, taunt and tease the fans of the 29 other franchises. That's the only reason he's being offered all over the place, his value is through the roof but they secretly want to keep him until he retires.
I know what you mean. I have Oiler fans telling me that Andrei Kostitsyn is garbage and worth nothing, but Cogliano can net a 15th overall pick on his own. Just painful.

Wow, did anyone really say Cogliano was better than Wojtek Wolski?? Really? Ouch. That is just insane.

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06-26-2010, 09:13 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
What has Cogliano proven? That he can decline year after year? That he can not get more than 18 goals in a season? That he can not crack the top six on the worst team in the league even with all the injuries they had? He proved he can get a whopping 10 goals last season. Glen Metropolit scored 16 goals and 29 points last year, should Florida have given us the 15th pick for him? Would Edmonton have given Montreal the 31 st for him and would you have been happy with that trade?

Actually, Dominic Moore is a better example since he has the same points totals as Cogliano this year, and better totals last year. Dominic Moore cost Montreal a 2nd rounder. This season he scored 10 goals and 18 assists in 13 less games than Cogliano, who also scored 10, 18, 28 totals. The season before that Moore scored 13 goals and 32 assists for 45 points in 82 games where Cogliano scored 18 goals and 20 assists for 38 points in 82 games. So, are you telling me that Cogliano is worth the 15th overall when Dominic Moore is worth a second rounder even though Moore has more points in less games over the last two seasons? Again, would you have been happy to give Montreal the 31st overall for Moore?

Look, nobody is saying Cogliano is garbage, we are simply saying the guy is not worth a 1st round pick because he is simply "Joe Average" in the NHL, so far. Could he rebound and do better? Sure, look at Penner. Could he continue to regress? Yup, plenty of players have done that, too. Go look at most 3rd line centers, plenty scored 10 goals, none garner 1st round picks. Jarret Stoll has more points than Cogs over the last 3 years (even his 1st 3 years in the league he had more points than Cogliano), would he get a 1st round pick? No. Manny Malhotra had more points than Cogs over the last 2 seasons. He won't get a 1st in trade. The list goes on and on.

The reason the Oilers didn't get pick #15? If they only offered Cogliano you have your answer. It doesn't get any simpler. I wish Cogliano the best of luck, have nothing against the guy. However, at this point in his career, he is not worth a 1st round pick of ANY sort, just look at the numbers.
Difference between the players you mention and Cogliano he is 23 years old and the others are 29+...unfortunately in todays league potential becomes a big part of a players value...for the last 4 years (other than last) Horcoff had 50+ points, would you consider his value to the the same as other good 2-way centres that score in the same range but are 7 years younger? I would doubt it.

Credible sources, including TSN, already said it was more likely that there was a deal in place for #15, contingent on McIlrath being available...more likely than Florida simply refusing it outright...it was a deep draft so 15th overall seems like it might be an overpayment, but in my mind cogliano is worth something in the 18-25 range...my opinion, we shall agree to disagree

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06-26-2010, 09:48 PM
  #104
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Difference between the players you mention and Cogliano he is 23 years old and the others are 29+...unfortunately in todays league potential becomes a big part of a players value...for the last 4 years (other than last) Horcoff had 50+ points, would you consider his value to the the same as other good 2-way centres that score in the same range but are 7 years younger? I would doubt it.

Credible sources, including TSN, already said it was more likely that there was a deal in place for #15, contingent on McIlrath being available...more likely than Florida simply refusing it outright...it was a deep draft so 15th overall seems like it might be an overpayment, but in my mind cogliano is worth something in the 18-25 range...my opinion, we shall agree to disagree
We can easily agree to disagree. NO harm, no foul.

Out of curiosity, what value does Andrei Kostitsyn hold, then, if Cogliano is a mid 1st rounder?

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06-26-2010, 09:57 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by HockeyPwnsSoccer View Post
Cogs will stay imo, but I bet some team will make a 2.5 per offer sheet if we dont resign him.

Lol are you delusionsal ?

Which GM is dumb enough to pay Cogliano 2.5 per year ? For what ? What has he proven. Declining 23 year old 4th liners who can't get ice time on a near-AHL calibre team are not going to be tendered offer sheets.

Not only do you expect someone to pay him 2.5m for multiple years but your expecting them to give up picks ? lol just stop already...

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06-26-2010, 10:10 PM
  #106
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If Shane freaking O'brien can net a mid first rd pick as the central figure in a trade, and Ruslan Fedotenko + 2 2nd's = 4th overall, then anything is possible folks.

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06-26-2010, 10:15 PM
  #107
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Originally Posted by xlnc66 View Post
If Shane freaking O'brien can net a mid first rd pick as the central figure in a trade, and Ruslan Fedotenko + 2 2nd's = 4th overall, then anything is possible folks.
Keep in mind that the former GM who made both of those trades...is a former GM for a reason.

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06-26-2010, 10:20 PM
  #108
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Keep in mind that the former GM who made both of those trades...is a former GM for a reason.
Also keep in mind, he's got a stanley cup championship.

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06-26-2010, 10:23 PM
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Also keep in mind, he's got a stanley cup championship.
Sure, in the pre-cap days, when you could piss away assets for less than value. Those days are long done, and so are the job offers for Jay Feaster.

Probably just all a big coincidence, though.

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06-26-2010, 10:25 PM
  #110
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
What has Cogliano proven? That he can decline year after year? That he can not get more than 18 goals in a season? That he can not crack the top six on the worst team in the league even with all the injuries they had? He proved he can get a whopping 10 goals last season. Glen Metropolit scored 16 goals and 29 points last year, should Florida have given us the 15th pick for him? Would Edmonton have given Montreal the 31 st for him and would you have been happy with that trade?

Actually, Dominic Moore is a better example since he has the same points totals as Cogliano this year, and better totals last year. Dominic Moore cost Montreal a 2nd rounder. This season he scored 10 goals and 18 assists in 13 less games than Cogliano, who also scored 10, 18, 28 totals. The season before that Moore scored 13 goals and 32 assists for 45 points in 82 games where Cogliano scored 18 goals and 20 assists for 38 points in 82 games. So, are you telling me that Cogliano is worth the 15th overall when Dominic Moore is worth a second rounder even though Moore has more points in less games over the last two seasons? Again, would you have been happy to give Montreal the 31st overall for Moore?

Look, nobody is saying Cogliano is garbage, we are simply saying the guy is not worth a 1st round pick because he is simply "Joe Average" in the NHL, so far. Could he rebound and do better? Sure, look at Penner. Could he continue to regress? Yup, plenty of players have done that, too. Go look at most 3rd line centers, plenty scored 10 goals, none garner 1st round picks. Jarret Stoll has more points than Cogs over the last 3 years (even his 1st 3 years in the league he had more points than Cogliano), would he get a 1st round pick? No. Manny Malhotra had more points than Cogs over the last 2 seasons. He won't get a 1st in trade. The list goes on and on.

The reason the Oilers didn't get pick #15? If they only offered Cogliano you have your answer. It doesn't get any simpler. I wish Cogliano the best of luck, have nothing against the guy. However, at this point in his career, he is not worth a 1st round pick of ANY sort, just look at the numbers.
I think you missed the point. I'm saying that the #15 is likely going to be worse then Cogliano. Accordingly, If I were Florida I would have made the deal and swung the odds in my favor. If I were Edmonton, I wouldn't have done the deal for the opposite reason. I said nothing about what Cogliano has proven, or will prove. Instead, I spoke about the large probabability of drafting someone worse in the mid first round.

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06-26-2010, 10:29 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by ShadowFlyer View Post
Sure, in the pre-cap days, when you could piss away assets for less than value. Those days are long done, and so are the job offers for Jay Feaster.

Probably just all a big coincidence, though.
Didn't realize when Shane O'brien got dealt in Feb 2007 that we were still in the pre cap days.

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06-26-2010, 10:32 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by xlnc66 View Post
Didn't realize when Shane O'brien got dealt in Feb 2007 that we were still in the pre cap days.
You said "he won a championship", to which I replied "Sure, in the pre-cap days".

He pissed away the #4 for Fedotenko and two 2nd's pre-cap, and caught lightning in a bottle and won a Cup.

The 1st for Shane O'Brien was made in the cap era, and is one of the many blunders he made that landed him on the unemployment line.

Again, you could piss away assets for less than value pre-cap and still survive and win. You can't do that anymore. Not sure how I can make that point any more clear.

Bottomline: If you're using Jay Feaster as an example of why Cogliano is worth a mid-1st rounder, then I rest my case

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06-26-2010, 10:49 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
We can easily agree to disagree. NO harm, no foul.

Out of curiosity, what value does Andrei Kostitsyn hold, then, if Cogliano is a mid 1st rounder?
Well mid-late first rounder...20-30 I think is fair (for Cogs) - teams that are ready to win now

For AK, I don't really see that much different of value...He's bigger than cogs with better pure scoring talent...not as fast and seems to have a bad reputation (no idea why exactly, does he have work ethic / character issues?)...he is also 2-3 years older than Cogs but BOTH players, for argument's sake, have regressed a bit over the last few years...AK had injuries this year and Cogs got stuck with awful linemates (with Penner and Brule he was nearly a ppg player over last 16 games)

To me, guys like this that are still 25 or younger with upside have that type of value...imo, teams like Washington, Pittsburgh, LA, Detroit, Philly, etc. are in the position to give away picks in that range to add secondary scoring for current runs and in the future...to me it would seem like a good gamble to put AK on the wing with Crosby or Malkin to get some added secondary scoring...a lot better than guerin or dupuis imo...they ended up taking beau bennet, who a year ago was playing like Junior B 4th line minutes and wasn't excelling...a player in the 20-30 range may never help contribute...I guess I think it's worth the risk for teams looking to fill their top 6 and win now...they have 6 more rounds to add depth in the farm and with good scouting it may not even matter in the end

With that being said, perhaps trading a struggling player for another struggling player or out of favour previously touted prospect makes more sense than picks...I just think 1st round picks are overvalued after the first half (varies with depth)

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06-26-2010, 11:27 PM
  #114
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I think you missed the point. I'm saying that the #15 is likely going to be worse then Cogliano. Accordingly, If I were Florida I would have made the deal and swung the odds in my favor. If I were Edmonton, I wouldn't have done the deal for the opposite reason. I said nothing about what Cogliano has proven, or will prove. Instead, I spoke about the large probabability of drafting someone worse in the mid first round.
Actually, that is not true. You said:

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And yes, I would trade a mid-first rounder for a proven young 2nd/3rd liner every single day of the week.
Which is why I asked what he has proven. It is why I said that players of Cogliano's "proven" ability are a dime-a-dozen in the NHL. The 15th pick? It might be a bust, no argument there. However, it could be a guy like Joe Sakic, Mike Bossy, or Al McInnis, 3 of the best #15 picks ever. Why would any GM give up the chance to get someone like that for a dime-a-dozen guy like Cogliano has "proven" himself to be, so far? Like I said, Cogliano compares to Moore, Metropolit, Malhotra, etc... Those are guys you get for 2nd or 3rd round picks. No sane GM sends a potential Sakic to another team for a 3rd liner when you can draft 3rd liners throughout the draft more easily than you can first liners.

I do agree that, statistically, the #15 will be similar to Cogliano. The chance that he is better, though, makes it a non-trade for me...and obviously for Florida, too...

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06-26-2010, 11:36 PM
  #115
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Well mid-late first rounder...20-30 I think is fair (for Cogs) - teams that are ready to win now

For AK, I don't really see that much different of value...He's bigger than cogs with better pure scoring talent...not as fast and seems to have a bad reputation (no idea why exactly, does he have work ethic / character issues?)...he is also 2-3 years older than Cogs but BOTH players, for argument's sake, have regressed a bit over the last few years...AK had injuries this year and Cogs got stuck with awful linemates (with Penner and Brule he was nearly a ppg player over last 16 games)

To me, guys like this that are still 25 or younger with upside have that type of value...imo, teams like Washington, Pittsburgh, LA, Detroit, Philly, etc. are in the position to give away picks in that range to add secondary scoring for current runs and in the future...to me it would seem like a good gamble to put AK on the wing with Crosby or Malkin to get some added secondary scoring...a lot better than guerin or dupuis imo...they ended up taking beau bennet, who a year ago was playing like Junior B 4th line minutes and wasn't excelling...a player in the 20-30 range may never help contribute...I guess I think it's worth the risk for teams looking to fill their top 6 and win now...they have 6 more rounds to add depth in the farm and with good scouting it may not even matter in the end

With that being said, perhaps trading a struggling player for another struggling player or out of favour previously touted prospect makes more sense than picks...I just think 1st round picks are overvalued after the first half (varies with depth)
Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

We will disagree a bit though. If Cogliano gets a mid to late first rounder, AK should get a #6-12 pick.
Cogliano's stats: 246 games 46g 65a 111p -10
Akostitsyn's stats: 245 games 67g 74a 141p +13

AK is also bigger, hits more, and plays with an edge. Heck, AK played 23 less games this year and still got more goals and points. So I do not see why the difference in value is not quite a bit higher.

In any case, it has been a fun discussion.

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06-27-2010, 12:10 AM
  #116
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Both OBrien and Fedotenko were better prospects then Cogliano at the time of their trades, they didnt live up to their potential but they also didnt bust. Fedotenko has been a pretty good filling out the top 6 or top 9. OBrien has been a pretty steady bottom pairing dman, he will continue to be a good player that puts in good and dependable minuits in the NHL.

Cogliano on the other hand looked to have had potential three years ago but he has gotten worse each year and I wouldent even be surprised if in two years he would no longer be in the NHL.

Personally I think the Edmonton organization is so messed up right now that its spoiling its prospects. It happens and its happening in Edmonton, the team is just a prospect graveyard right now and there is aura of failure around the whole team, it rubs of on all the player in the organization. Faliure can be a psychological infection and can spread, just like fear, happiness or any other mental state, people rub off on other people.

Edmonton better hope Hall is good enough to come in there and become a bright light, maybe then the organization can start to repair itself and gain confidence.

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06-27-2010, 12:18 AM
  #117
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Cogliano kinda sucks (till now) but like I said in another thread - why do the Oilers have so many leaks?

Another "almost trade" for the organization. Congrats.

I don't really see a big deal if Dreger et al find out that the Oilers are after certain draft picks but shouldn't you be keeping the package you're offering to yourself? ...... not great for organizational stability going into a training camp when 1/2 your roster has heard their names in trade scuttlebutt.

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06-27-2010, 12:20 AM
  #118
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Originally Posted by xlnc66 View Post
Also keep in mind, he's got a stanley cup championship.
So does Glen Sather.

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Originally Posted by Drydenwasthebest View Post
What has Cogliano proven? That he can decline year after year? That he can not get more than 18 goals in a season? That he can not crack the top six on the worst team in the league even with all the injuries they had? He proved he can get a whopping 10 goals last season. Glen Metropolit scored 16 goals and 29 points last year, should Florida have given us the 15th pick for him? Would Edmonton have given Montreal the 31 st for him and would you have been happy with that trade?
It's always the same story. And it's already been brought up in this thread. Stop using his offensive numbers as the be-all-end-all. He only scored 28 points. Another drop in points, man he's gonna be in the AHL in two years... See below.

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Cogliano on the other hand looked to have had potential three years ago but he has gotten worse each year and I wouldent even be surprised if in two years he would no longer be in the NHL.
The guy has improved over the past two seasons. He was, at no point, an anomaly on the ice this season. If you watched the games, you would've seen it.

He is effective in several ways on the ice, and that's good because he just doesn't have the offensive creativity to compete with many of our other forwards coming up in the system.

And just so we're all on the same page. Draft picks have different values at different points in time during the season.

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06-27-2010, 12:22 AM
  #119
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Originally Posted by HankTheTank View Post
Cogliano kinda sucks (till now) but like I said in another thread - why do the Oilers have so many leaks?

Another "almost trade" for the organization. Congrats.

I don't really see a big deal if Dreger et al find out that the Oilers are after certain draft picks but shouldn't you be keeping the package you're offering to yourself? ...... not great for organizational stability going into a training camp when 1/2 your roster has heard their names in trade scuttlebutt.
Cogliano already knew they previously tried to trade them (to OTT).

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06-27-2010, 12:39 AM
  #120
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He doesn't even have that one great season to use as a crutch. What is it Oilers fans see that nobody else does? 15th overall is hilarious. I'd realistically aim more at late 2nd, early 3rd.

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06-27-2010, 12:51 AM
  #121
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He doesn't even have that one great season to use as a crutch. What is it Oilers fans see that nobody else does? 15th overall is hilarious. I'd realistically aim more at late 2nd, early 3rd.
How is it hilarious? Where is Cogliano's value compared to that of David Rundblad's?

You do realize that the Oilers acquired a mid 2nd yesterday for a former pick who made it very known that he wasn't going to sign in Edmonton. Where is his value compared to Cogliano's?

Your only assessment of his value is based on his declining point totals. I'm very happy that our scouts realize that there are other aspects of his game that make him a very valuable player.

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06-27-2010, 02:45 AM
  #122
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is there really any surprise that florida said no?

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06-27-2010, 08:35 AM
  #123
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Which is why I asked what he has proven. It is why I said that players of Cogliano's "proven" ability are a dime-a-dozen in the NHL. The 15th pick? It might be a bust, no argument there. However, it could be a guy like Joe Sakic, Mike Bossy, or Al McInnis, 3 of the best #15 picks ever. Why would any GM give up the chance to get someone like that for a dime-a-dozen guy like Cogliano has "proven" himself to be, so far? Like I said, Cogliano compares to Moore, Metropolit, Malhotra, etc... Those are guys you get for 2nd or 3rd round picks. No sane GM sends a potential Sakic to another team for a 3rd liner when you can draft 3rd liners throughout the draft more easily than you can first liners.

I do agree that, statistically, the #15 will be similar to Cogliano. The chance that he is better, though, makes it a non-trade for me...and obviously for Florida, too...
What I meant by proven is he has shown he can play in the NHL. Many players drafted in the middle of the first round will not do that.

Statistically the 15th will be worse than Cogliano. See my previous posts. Approximately 20% of the players drafted between 10 and 20 (1992-2007) were better. I'll take an 80% chance of ending up with the better player over a 20% one, even if that 20% might be a significant amount better.

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06-27-2010, 10:37 AM
  #124
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Originally Posted by belair View Post
How is it hilarious? Where is Cogliano's value compared to that of David Rundblad's?

You do realize that the Oilers acquired a mid 2nd yesterday for a former pick who made it very known that he wasn't going to sign in Edmonton. Where is his value compared to Cogliano's?

Your only assessment of his value is based on his declining point totals. I'm very happy that our scouts realize that there are other aspects of his game that make him a very valuable player.
Rundblad not wanting to be on the Oilers doesnt hurt his value as a player at all, and hes 100% potential still he could end up being a allstar dman. Cogs used to be worth more too but after 3 years of nothing (save me the sob stories) his value is decreasing. Oiler fans can make all the excuses for him they want but you can make those same excuses for a player on almost every team.

What player is equal to Cogliano? In the NHL who is an equal player to him? Seriously, id like to see where you think he is on value.

Quote:
Credible sources, including TSN, already said it was more likely that there was a deal in place for #15, contingent on McIlrath being available...more likely than Florida simply refusing it outright...it was a deep draft so 15th overall seems like it might be an overpayment, but in my mind cogliano is worth something in the 18-25 range...my opinion, we shall agree to disagree
Seemed to be 2 different deal. They said they Oilers were trying to get it and were turned down then later said there might be a deal in place. Im assuming it was probably a counter offer and we really dont even know if Cogs was in it. Or if it was Cogs + or what.

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06-27-2010, 10:38 AM
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Xander Crews
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJudge View Post
What I meant by proven is he has shown he can play in the NHL. Many players drafted in the middle of the first round will not do that.

Statistically the 15th will be worse than Cogliano. See my previous posts. Approximately 20% of the players drafted between 10 and 20 (1992-2007) were better. I'll take an 80% chance of ending up with the better player over a 20% one, even if that 20% might be a significant amount better.
You realize if you go with that strategy your team would be terrible? Full of average players and no gamebreakers. Not to mention by you odds logic, Cogs should be worth what 2 firsts? Odds are he would be better then both right?

You know what im switching sides too... The Oilers wouldnt even have traded Cogs for the 15th in the first its a lie! More like Cogs for 15 firsts!. Cogs is gonna suddenly become a first line center this year hesss gotttt spppeeeeeeddddd!!!!! Move over rest of the league Cogs is gonna win us the cup!


Last edited by Xander Crews: 06-27-2010 at 10:45 AM.
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