I know we just recently had a Dubinsky raise thread, but this is the off-season. People were saying we were going to have many cap issues (and we are) this season. And always will with that buffoon running the show. However, I came across some striking things that I hadn't realized by doing a little more research today, and it seems as if next year's cap issues are going to be the toughest.
As I posted in the Boogard thread above as a reply:
Quote:
Brashear, Voros, Gilroy, Prospal, Boyle all come off the books next year. And a WHOLE bunch of prospects/minor leaguers go RFA in 2011-2012.
2011-2012 is going to be tougher than now, and if Redden doesn't get sent to the AHL this year, he almost 100% will be next year because we need that money.
As you mentioned, Dubi and Cally need raises as well as Anisimov, and plenty of RFA prospects need to be re-signed, most notably: Grachev, Johnson, Weise, Byers, Kundratek.
With Brashear, Voros, Gilroy, Prospal and Boyle coming off the books next season (you figure none of them are going to be re-signed, maybe Gilroy at a lower price), you'd save roughly ~6.2M. That 6.2M would have to go directly to Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, who are (depending on this season) going to raises that probably look like this:
Callahan from 2.3M to ~3-3.3M long term.
Dubinsky from 1.8M to ~3.5-4M mid term.
Anisimov from entry level 850k~1.5-2M mid term.
If you do the math that's roughly 4 or 4.5M that you've alloted just to keeping these 3 young players, who ARE integral to our success. Now the good part is: these are the only MAIN players that would need to be re-signed. But then you have those prospects.
So, for those of you that can't wait for Redden and his $6.5M cap hit to be in the AHL or *gasp* terminated because he rejects (who seriously ISN'T pushing the bill for that by now?) he will HAVE to be off the roster next season or bought out.
Also: some other things. The cap space now is, what, $5,653,333 (taken from 2010-2011 Salary Cap Thread), and I believe that's without the overage. That money is primarily going to re-signing Staal and Girardi, nothing else. All of that money, actually, because Girardi was reportedly asking ~3M ish, and Staal ~4.5M long term. With the overage, it probably will work, especially with Voros/Rissmiller/probably Redden, etc, to the AHL. But lets just say those two defensemen signed for those amounts.
So you're near the cap max, again, for 2010-2011.
The only players that come off the books next year are, as I mentioned before, saving about ~6.2M or so (not doing the exact figures) which would go to re-signing Dubi, Cally, Anisimov, and probably Grachev or Weise (if they make the team). That's almost all the money, and you're back at the cap floor (unless Redden gets sent down).
In essence, you'd have 10 forwards, 5 d men, and the 2 goalies signed and be at the cap floor. Unless you dropped Redden. And this is all depending on these players staying, no trades, etc.
So, Redden will definitely be gone next year I think. Opinions?
Why does Callahan need a raise? What has Callahan done last year to deserve a raise?
His production went DOWN not up, so he shouldn't deserve a raise.
If he doesn't improve his production from last year, he definitely doesn't deserve a raise. He will deserve what he's getting now.
We can not continue to overpay 3rd and 4th line players.
Callahan is the most liked Ranger player. Huge energy guy. Huge intangibles. Great physicality. ~40 points a year (might get better this year). He's getting a slight raise and he's going to be signed long term.
He didn't score 40 points last year. He scored 40 points once. So you can't say he scores 40 points per year. It was once, and you don't know that he will again. He had an increased role from the year prior and he didn't match the year prior's production.
And yes, I know he's all energy and he's liked. That doesn't justify paying him like he's a top six forward, because he isn't one.
Same reason Shelley didn't deserve it. Same reason Colton Orr didn't deserve it. Same reason Ortmeyer didn't deserve it. Same reason Sjostrom didn't deserve it... Because you DO NOT pay 3rd and 4th line players top six money.
He didn't score 40 points last year. He scored 40 points once. So you can't say he scores 40 points per year. It was once, and you don't know that he will again. He had an increased role from the year prior and he didn't match the year prior's production.
And yes, I know he's all energy and he's liked. That doesn't justify paying him like he's a top six forward, because he isn't one.
Same reason Shelley didn't deserve it. Same reason Colton Orr didn't deserve it. Same reason Ortmeyer didn't deserve it. Same reason Sjostrom didn't deserve it... Because you DO NOT pay 3rd and 4th line players top six money.
Two full seasons: 40 and 37 points. I put ~40 point player. He is according to that statement which justifies an estimate.
Secondly, ~2.5-3M is not a top-six player contract. And, Callahan IS a top six player on our team. Increased role and delivered. Arguably played better than last year despite a 3 point reduction. Gained much leadership, much experience, and played a huge role in every one of our games.
Shelley, Orr, Ortmeyer, Sjostrom are all different stories and I'm not sure why you're bringing them up. Shelley didn't deserve $1.1 but Boogard deserved $1.7? For more years? How do you justify that? And that's a different story altogether - and none of these guys were being offered anywhere near top six money. So I'm not sure what you're getting at.
Bottom line is: Callahan will get the 200k-$1M raise long term. It will happen. So get over it.
Two full seasons: 40 and 37 points. I put ~40 point player. He is according to that statement which justifies an estimate.
Secondly, ~2.5-3M is not a top-six player contract. And, Callahan IS a top six player on our team. Increased role and delivered. Arguably played better than last year despite a 3 point reduction. Gained much leadership, much experience, and played a huge role in every one of our games.
Shelley, Orr, Ortmeyer, Sjostrom are all different stories and I'm not sure why you're bringing them up. Shelley didn't deserve $1.1 but Boogard deserved $1.7? For more years? How do you justify that? And that's a different story altogether - and none of these guys were being offered anywhere near top six money. So I'm not sure what you're getting at.
Bottom line is: Callahan will get the 200k-$1M raise long term. It will happen. So get over it.
Sorry, on no planet does Ryan Callahan get 3 million.
And no he is not a top six player.
On this team he is because this team has CRAP depth.
On any serious contender Ryan Callahan doesn't see the top six unless there is a slew of injuries.
37 is 37 not 40. Just like 40 isn't 50 and 50 isn't 60. 37 is 37 and not 40. And that is less then what he put up the year prior.
Usually, you give someone a promotion when they did something to deserve it. Not because you have to.
If Callahan reaches between 45-50 points and scores 20+ goals, then yea, he will deserve 3 million.
37 point players do not get paid 3 million. 37 points is 3rd line. Not 2nd line. 45-50+ points is second line.
I know we just recently had a Dubinsky raise thread, but this is the off-season. People were saying we were going to have many cap issues (and we are) this season. And always will with that buffoon running the show. However, I came across some striking things that I hadn't realized by doing a little more research today, and it seems as if next year's cap issues are going to be the toughest.
As I posted in the Boogard thread above as a reply:
Also: some other things. The cap space now is, what, $5,653,333 (taken from 2010-2011 Salary Cap Thread), and I believe that's without the overage. That money is primarily going to re-signing Staal and Girardi, nothing else. All of that money, actually, because Girardi was reportedly asking ~3M ish, and Staal ~4.5M long term. With the overage, it probably will work, especially with Voros/Rissmiller/probably Redden, etc, to the AHL. But lets just say those two defensemen signed for those amounts.
So you're near the cap max, again, for 2010-2011.
The only players that come off the books next year are, as I mentioned before, saving about ~6.2M or so (not doing the exact figures) which would go to re-signing Dubi, Cally, Anisimov, and probably Grachev or Weise (if they make the team). That's almost all the money, and you're back at the cap floor (unless Redden gets sent down).
In essence, you'd have 10 forwards, 5 d men, and the 2 goalies signed and be at the cap floor. Unless you dropped Redden. And this is all depending on these players staying, no trades, etc.
So, Redden will definitely be gone next year I think. Opinions?
Sorry, on no planet does Ryan Callahan get 3 million.
And no he is not a top six player.
On this team he is because this team has CRAP depth.
On any serious contender Ryan Callahan doesn't see the top six unless there is a slew of injuries.
37 is 37 not 40. Just like 40 isn't 50 and 50 isn't 60. 37 is 37 and not 40. And that is less then what he put up the year prior.
Usually, you give someone a promotion when they did something to deserve it. Not because you have to.
If Callahan reaches between 45-50 points and scores 20+ goals, then yea, he will deserve 3 million.
37 point players do not get paid 3 million. 37 points is 3rd line. Not 2nd line. 45-50+ points is second line.
You're debating over 3 points, which is taken in stride due to his diligence, excellent two-way and physical play and tremendous impact on the team for leadership.
Here are some contracts to players that are comparable (that were just signed this year):
Colby Armstrong (who some could argue is worse than Callahan, despite being more seasoned): Signed with Leafs, 3 years/$9mil. $3mil average.
Steve Ott: Re-signed 4 years/$11.8mil, almost 3 mil average
Malhotra (more seasoned but worse): 3 years/$7.5mil, 2.5 mil average.
Matt Stajan (better offensively): 4 years/$14mil. 3.5 mil average.
All these players are comparable in similar ways (albeit some more than others in some categories) and this is just this off-season. Look at the averages. All around 3. Callahan taking a hometown discount might occur, especially given our cap situation, but that's an entirely different story. The fact is that fair market value for a Callahan player would be right around $3m.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemchinov13
Exactly why I hope we are finished with UFAs.
Me too, especially given now, the fact that our two integral defensemen need to be re-signed with that money.
Unless Callahan puts up 45-50 points he better not get 3+ million/season. He adds some leadership and defensive skills but he is not a 3+ million dollar player. Unless he takes a step forward in offensive production I would say 2.5-2.6 million would be ideal.
Armstrong was an UFA, can not compare. All of the other players signed prior to, or during their UFA years. Apples and Oranges.
Unless Callahan puts up 45-50 points he better not get 3+ million/season. He adds some leadership and defensive skills but he is not a 3+ million dollar player. Unless he takes a step forward in offensive production I would say 2.5-2.6 million would be ideal.
Armstrong was an UFA, can not compare. All of the other players signed prior to, or during their UFA years. Apples and Oranges.
That's true, but Callahan would definitely get $3+ on the open market. Plenty of teams inquire about Callahan year round, especially around the draft, and now, free agency. Sather will give him $2.5-3M, that's a $200-700k raise long term. You wouldn't want to give Callahan that money long-term and rather have him be let go?
Unless Callahan puts up 45-50 points he better not get 3+ million/season. He adds some leadership and defensive skills but he is not a 3+ million dollar player. Unless he takes a step forward in offensive production I would say 2.5-2.6 million would be ideal.
Armstrong was an UFA, can not compare. All of the other players signed prior to, or during their UFA years. Apples and Oranges.
Exactly.
2 to 2.5 mil is what Callahan deserves. That's fair.
3+ is lunacy for a 35-40 point 15-20 goal grinder.
I don't want to hear "intangibles" we have a 7 mil intangible in our lineup and he doesn't deserve half that. We really don't need another player being overpaid for "intangibles".
Here's an idea, start paying players with tangibles.
2 to 2.5 mil is what Callahan deserves. That's fair.
3+ is lunacy for a 35-40 point 15-20 goal grinder.
I don't want to hear "intangibles" we have a 7 mil intangible in our lineup and he doesn't deserve half that. We really don't need another player being overpaid for "intangibles".
Here's an idea, start paying players with tangibles.
Yeah, because 2 mil is exactly what he's going to get and he's worth. He's going to take a paycut. Yeah. That's realistic.
That's true, but Callahan would definitely get $3+ on the open market. Plenty of teams inquire about Callahan year round, especially around the draft, and now, free agency. Sather will give him $2.5-3M, that's a $200-700k raise long term. You wouldn't want to give Callahan that money long-term and rather have him be let go?
He would not be on the open market and he would be overpaid at 3+ million dollars. He has value but at 3 million per season, that value drops significantly.
He would not be on the open market and he would be overpaid at 3+ million dollars. He has value but at 3 million per season, that value drops significantly.
Never did I say he was going to be on the open market, I simply said that $3M would be what he gets there, if so. Probably a little more. UFA's always get overpaid slightly, toppled in with the fact that he's young and well-liked among the league.
He is not worth ~3 million an season. He's a glorified 3rd liner who has hit 40 points barely once in his career. Like SupersonicMonkey is saying, we can't continue to overpay 3rd liners.
Colby Armstrong (15-14-29) got 3 years $3M per as a UFA. Overpaid IMO but using that as a base mark, I don't think a UFA Callahan gets more than $3M so a RFA Callahan should definite get much less. Cap hit of $2.3M now, $2.53M (10% raise) I suppose. He is in the final year of his contract though so if he can pull of 25-25-50, that's Matt Lombardi numbers who got $3.5M as a UFA. so you think a RFA Callahan could get $3M per if he can show that much progress.
If someone else wants to pay him that, that's fine with me.
Just because some GM might be stupid enough to give him 3+ mil on the open market, doesn't mean our GM should be stupid as well.
Yea, Callahan is getting in the 2 to 2.5 range now. Just because he is up for a new contract soon, doesn't mean he needs a raise.
He hasn't progressed. Sorry, he just hasn't.
If he manages to dwarf last years numbers this year, then fine, then he earned a raise. If he finishes the season with 40 points, and he doesn't lead this team past the second round, then he hasn't earned a raise, because he hasn't progressed in any way shape or form to warrant a raise.
Getting more money isn't a right of passage. Its something that needs to be earned. He hasn't thus far. If he does something this year to earn it, then he deserves it.
Again, you don't overpay your role guys on the 3rd and 4th lines. You pay your top guys top dollar, and the rest of them need to be fair value.
3+ for Callahan is NOT fair value. That's overpayment.
A lot will depend on what kind of season he has. Personally I see him in the 35-45 point range but if he hits 50 or more then yeah he should get a good raise.
The negatives are that the Rangers do not have playmaking centermen that are likely to help Ryan score more. OTOH he's kind of been a one trick pony himself--shoot first mentality--including a lot of low percentage shots. As long as he's an RFA and he shows that he's plateaued there's no reason to break the bank. The same more or less for Dubinsky.
Colby Armstrong (15-14-29) got 3 years $3M per as a UFA. Overpaid IMO but using that as a base mark, I don't think a UFA Callahan gets more than $3M so a RFA Callahan should definite get much less. Cap hit of $2.3M now, $2.53M (10% raise) I suppose. He is in the final year of his contract though so if he can pull of 25-25-50, that's Matt Lombardi numbers who got $3.5M as a UFA. so you think a RFA Callahan could get $3M per if he can show that much progress.
Yea, the key to that whole thing is progress.
If he doesn't make any, nobody can justify a raise.
If he scores 25-25-50 he is absolutely deserving of 3 mil, because he does a lot of other things as well.
But really, if he can't reach that point production, its really hard to justify a big raise like that.
I could see the rangers trading Rozsival next offseason when he has 1 year left as a salary dump if they need to clear up cap space for there young players.
Callahan will get a raise hopefully rangers sign him for 2.5-2.7 million, I think that is fair for both sides. Eventually when he becomes a ufa he will be at least a 3 million dollar per year player probably more. The leafs just gave Colby Armstrong 3 million per year.
Dubinsky will get the larger raise next year. Last year he was on pace for 52 points if he didn't get injured. Very possible he will put up somewhere from 50-60 points this year. I can see him getting 3.5 million per year.
