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The Case for Offer Sheets

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Old
07-29-2010, 12:37 AM
  #1
JDM
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The Case for Offer Sheets

Recently, Howard Roark, one of our guest writers, took the time to analyze the strategical benefits and implications of using an offer sheet to improve the Kings' roster.

Here is a snippet of that article:

Quote:
If I am correct in my analysis, pilfering a top RFA now becomes an analytical exercise in minimizing the risk of retaliation. If I am Lombardi, I stay away like the plague from any RFA playing on a Big Spender franchise. These teams will not take kindly to being attacked and have both the resources and the will to retaliate. On the other hand, if I know a team is in financial straits or is minimizing its losses to ensure a quick sale, that is who I attack. Teams like Phoenix whose budget is constrained by the NHL or Nashville, which has a hard ceiling, look like enticing victims. The owners in St. Louis have made it clear they want out as soon as possible and will not take on more losses. Thus, this is where Lombardi can turn his attention.
The rest of his case can be read here: http://lakingsnews.com/2010/07/28/wh...n-offer-sheet/

Personally, I am not a huge fan of the offer sheet method, however Howard took an interesting approach, that has names jumping out at me like crazy... Patric Hornqvist, Erik Johnson, Bergfors, Niskanen, Little and Hanzal to name a few. Is this likely? Hell if I know. But maybe, just maybe, Dean is already tinkering with this idea.

Here is a list of notable RFAs yet to be signed (and UFAs too, but those names suck!) http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle1654695/

Look at it this way, one Dirty Harry reference, does not a GM make. If Dean always did exactly as he said, then DIEHARD would have trouble coming up with a nickname for Lombardi.

Is it worth the money, picks and risk? Depends. The part that intrigues me the most about Howard's article, is that his approach is a financial one, and not purely the typical internet "omg Bobby Ryan is a great player so lets offer sheet him!"

Take a read, enjoy, and most importantly, weigh in!


Last edited by JDM: 07-29-2010 at 12:44 AM.
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07-29-2010, 12:45 AM
  #2
Ziggy Stardust
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I think tendering an offer sheet to an RFA is a strategy that has to be considered. Lombardi has said, as a GM, it is his responsibility and due diligence to consider and exhaust all options. Offer sheets are a tool to acquire talent or draw a team to the table to enter negotiations for a potential trade.

If I'm a GM, and I know that my team is on the cusp of achieving success and needs that one missing piece, and the perfect fit is sitting along waiting to be signed to a contract as a RFA, I'm going to approach the team to see if his rights can be acquired. If not, then go the route of placing an offer sheet with the knowledge that it is entirely possible to face retaliation, and be prepared for it.

You also consider the player you are bidding for and the talent that will be available in future drafts. Take for example, Bobby Ryan. If it would cost two consecutive 1st round draft picks in 2011 and 2012, you'd have to gauge the depth of the draft and where your team will be selecting. Say the Kings are picking below 20, ask yourself, is there going to be talent equivalent to Bobby Ryan in the later stages of the first round? Most likely not.

It's a risky gamble, but an option worth considering.

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07-29-2010, 12:47 AM
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Sam
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Personally, I am not a huge fan of the offer sheet method, however Howard took an interesting approach, that has names jumping out at me like crazy... Patric Hornqvist, Erik Johnson, Bergfors, Niskanen, Little and Hanzal to name a few. Is this likely? Hell if I know. But maybe, just maybe, Dean is already tinkering with this idea.
Erik Johnson is not eligible for offer sheets this offseason.

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07-29-2010, 12:48 AM
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Johnny Utah
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Neal, Hornqvist and Ryan.

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07-29-2010, 12:50 AM
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Hornqvist is probably the only forward on that list that they could offer(and that DL would consider), and it might not be matched.

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07-29-2010, 12:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam View Post
Erik Johnson is not eligible for offer sheets this offseason.
Did not know that. Thanks for the clear up. What is te rule that applied here anyways? Is it to do with games played?

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07-29-2010, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Did not know that. Thanks for the clear up. What is te rule that applied here anyways? Is it to do with games played?
Yes. He missed the entire 2008-09 season due to injury. Needed to play 10+ games. Same reason why JJ wasn't eligible for offer sheets last offseason (Johnson only played 5 games his rookie season).

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07-29-2010, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Sam View Post
Yes. He missed the entire 2008-09 season due to injury. Needed to play 10+ games. Same reason why JJ wasn't eligible for offer sheets last offseason (Johnson only layed 5 games his rookie season).
Gotcha. Those damn Johnsons.

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07-29-2010, 01:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Johnny Utah View Post
Neal, Hornqvist and Ryan.
Neal would be worth going after to a point.

Bobby Ryan is a worth a ton of money. No problem offering him 6-6.5 million. **** the Ducks if they don't want him being paid as much as those other ugly idiots.

Problem here is Dean's claim that he hates paying young 2nd-3rd year players what he considers a 3rd contract. At the same time, Kopitar flies in the face of that, as will Doughty likely. Again, if Dean always did what he said, this thread wouldn't exist in the first place!

Quote:
Originally Posted by KopitarFAN View Post
Hornqvist is probably the only forward on that list that they could offer(and that DL would consider), and it might not be matched.
While I can't decide whether Hornqvist is an incredible awesome or stupid name, I think Hornqvist is definitely someone Lombardi would call a 'fit'. Unless he wants money he doesn't deserve.

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07-29-2010, 01:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Neal would be worth going after to a point.

Bobby Ryan is a worth a ton of money. No problem offering him 6-6.5 million. **** the Ducks if they don't want him being paid as much as those other ugly idiots.

Problem here is Dean's claim that he hates paying young 2nd-3rd year players what he considers a 3rd contract. At the same time, Kopitar flies in the face of that, as will Doughty likely. Again, if Dean always did what he said, this thread wouldn't exist in the first place!
I'd be ok with it. Just as long as Dean can lock up DD, JJ, WS, and JB before they hit RFA status.

The compensation for 6-6.5m would be two 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd.

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07-29-2010, 01:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Neal would be worth going after to a point.

Bobby Ryan is a worth a ton of money. No problem offering him 6-6.5 million. **** the Ducks if they don't want him being paid as much as those other ugly idiots.

Problem here is Dean's claim that he hates paying young 2nd-3rd year players what he considers a 3rd contract. At the same time, Kopitar flies in the face of that, as will Doughty likely. Again, if Dean always did what he said, this thread wouldn't exist in the first place!

While I can't decide whether Hornqvist is an incredible awesome or stupid name, I think Hornqvist is definitely someone Lombardi would call a 'fit'. Unless he wants money he doesn't deserve.
The term you want to be using there is second contract -- as in the second contract after the initial entry-level deal.

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07-29-2010, 01:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Primakov! View Post
The term you want to be using there is second contract -- as in the second contract after the initial entry-level deal.
No he had it, he's saying Dean doesn't want to pay 3rd contract money for a player who should be getting a second contract.


Last edited by redcard: 07-29-2010 at 04:33 AM. Reason: missing an "it"
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07-29-2010, 01:50 AM
  #13
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Hasn't DL said numerous times that he doesnt believe in offer sheets?

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07-29-2010, 01:55 AM
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No he had, he's saying Dean doesn't want to pay 3rd contract money for a player who should be getting a second contract.
Bingo.

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07-29-2010, 02:00 AM
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I don't see DL doing this unless his guys get offers.

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07-29-2010, 02:15 AM
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Dean has to win, and win now. He has one year left on his original contract and a two year extension. For him to keep his job, the Kings have to win one playoff round this season and advance deep into the post season in 2011-2012. Otherwise, he is a goner. To win, you need talent. It is available via this route right now. Draft picks in the 16-25 range where the Kings are picking will not be ready for the NHL until long after DL's contract expires. Sometimes, you have to roll the dice.

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07-29-2010, 02:16 AM
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but...but...but it's a mean thing to do to financially strapped teams!

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07-29-2010, 02:19 AM
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How about Martin Hanzal?

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07-29-2010, 02:43 AM
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Ziggy Stardust
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How about Martin Hanzal?
I don't think the Kings need another center. They need a winger who can put the puck in the net.

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07-29-2010, 10:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDM View Post
Recently, Howard Roark, one of our guest writers, took the time to analyze the strategical benefits and implications of using an offer sheet to improve the Kings' roster.

Here is a snippet of that article:



The rest of his case can be read here: http://lakingsnews.com/2010/07/28/wh...n-offer-sheet/

Personally, I am not a huge fan of the offer sheet method, however Howard took an interesting approach, that has names jumping out at me like crazy... Patric Hornqvist, Erik Johnson, Bergfors, Niskanen, Little and Hanzal to name a few. Is this likely? Hell if I know. But maybe, just maybe, Dean is already tinkering with this idea.

Here is a list of notable RFAs yet to be signed (and UFAs too, but those names suck!) http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sport...rticle1654695/

Look at it this way, one Dirty Harry reference, does not a GM make. If Dean always did exactly as he said, then DIEHARD would have trouble coming up with a nickname for Lombardi.

Is it worth the money, picks and risk? Depends. The part that intrigues me the most about Howard's article, is that his approach is a financial one, and not purely the typical internet "omg Bobby Ryan is a great player so lets offer sheet him!"

Take a read, enjoy, and most importantly, weigh in!

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07-29-2010, 10:44 AM
  #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piston View Post
Dean has to win, and win now. He has one year left on his original contract and a two year extension. For him to keep his job, the Kings have to win one playoff round this season and advance deep into the post season in 2011-2012. Otherwise, he is a goner. To win, you need talent. It is available via this route right now. Draft picks in the 16-25 range where the Kings are picking will not be ready for the NHL until long after DL's contract expires. Sometimes, you have to roll the dice.
Its not about this season. We want to build a long term contender, one that's capable of winning for a long time, but its not really about this year or next or even the one after that.

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07-29-2010, 12:17 PM
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This is the one area that I disagree with on Lombardi in terms of philosophy. The obvious targets for the Kings in terms of need (LW) and talent are:

1) Ryan
2) Neal
3) Hornqvist

The question would be what strategy to pursue. Many will say Dean would have to lock Doughty up first, then Johnson and then Simmonds before making such a move, but I would suggest the reverse should be considered. The Kings are going to match any offer Doughty gets, that is obvious.

His first priority should be Simmonds and if I were him I would offer a deal that gives him a nice raise, but only for two years that would I believe give him arbitration rights as an RFA when the contract expires. This does a few things. First it gives Simmonds a nice raise over two seasons, second it gives the Kings some breathing room with the cap and allows them to see exactly what they have in Simmonds, third by then they should have an idea on what Clifford is going to bring to the table.

Then you try to get a deal with Johnson done. May be a taller order and is not a must to move forward on the offer sheet strategy.

It would also be nice, but not necessary to have Doughty signed to something like an 8 year deal before tendering an offer sheet.

Then you go hunting. First target is Ryan. I say give him something just short of Kopitar's deal. I hear rumblings that Ryan wasn't pleased about how he was the player getting jerked around in the Duck's cap mess when Burke was still there and feels that the organization "owes" him some money that got left on the table when he was forced to the AHL to make things work for them. If the Kings front load a five year deal and put $32M on the table, can the Ducks match?

Yes, Diehard unlike Cammalleri this kid would actually be worth the money and you do have to overpay a little to get a free agent. No doubt Ryan >>>>>>> Cammalleri. Anyone want to argue that point?

If you sign him your core players are:

Kopitar
Doughty
Ryan
and hopefully Bernier

Now there are supplemental core players that you definitely want to hang onto in Simmonds, Johnson, Brown, and hopefully Hickey and Schenn down the line. But you can see how nicely things might take shape.

Dallas beat writer Heika had a decent article on this http://starsblog.dallasnews.com/arch...by-ryan-1.html

I don't think Neal is anywhere near Ryan's level, but he wouldn't be as expensive.

Doing something like this wouldn't be just about next season either, which has been one of my main hopes all along. The future would be in good hands.


Last edited by KINGS17: 07-29-2010 at 12:23 PM.
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07-29-2010, 12:43 PM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KINGS17 View Post
This is the one area that I disagree with on Lombardi in terms of philosophy. The obvious targets for the Kings in terms of need (LW) and talent are:

1) Ryan
2) Neal
3) Hornqvist

The question would be what strategy to pursue. Many will say Dean would have to lock Doughty up first, then Johnson and then Simmonds before making such a move, but I would suggest the reverse should be considered. The Kings are going to match any offer Doughty gets, that is obvious.

His first priority should be Simmonds and if I were him I would offer a deal that gives him a nice raise, but only for two years that would I believe give him arbitration rights as an RFA when the contract expires. This does a few things. First it gives Simmonds a nice raise over two seasons, second it gives the Kings some breathing room with the cap and allows them to see exactly what they have in Simmonds, third by then they should have an idea on what Clifford is going to bring to the table.

Then you try to get a deal with Johnson done. May be a taller order and is not a must to move forward on the offer sheet strategy.

It would also be nice, but not necessary to have Doughty signed to something like an 8 year deal before tendering an offer sheet.

Then you go hunting. First target is Ryan. I say give him something just short of Kopitar's deal. I hear rumblings that Ryan wasn't pleased about how he was the player getting jerked around in the Duck's cap mess when Burke was still there and feels that the organization "owes" him some money that got left on the table when he was forced to the AHL to make things work for them. If the Kings front load a five year deal and put $32M on the table, can the Ducks match?

Yes, Diehard unlike Cammalleri this kid would actually be worth the money and you do have to overpay a little to get a free agent. No doubt Ryan >>>>>>> Cammalleri. Anyone want to argue that point?

If you sign him your core players are:

Kopitar
Doughty
Ryan
and hopefully Bernier

Now there are supplemental core players that you definitely want to hang onto in Simmonds, Johnson, Brown, and hopefully Hickey and Schenn down the line. But you can see how nicely things might take shape.

Dallas beat writer Heika had a decent article on this http://starsblog.dallasnews.com/arch...by-ryan-1.html

I don't think Neal is anywhere near Ryan's level, but he wouldn't be as expensive.

Doing something like this wouldn't be just about next season either, which has been one of my main hopes all along. The future would be in good hands.
The problem with going after Ryan is that you are screwing a rival with deep pockets that is not likely to forget. We will have to worry about them retaliation for years to come. Hornqvist is another story. Nashville simply lacks the resources. They dumped Arnott to give themselves some flexibility, but they also have to worry about Suter and Webber. Bergfors is another guy in this category.

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07-29-2010, 12:50 PM
  #24
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The problem with going after Ryan is that you are screwing a rival with deep pockets that is not likely to forget. We will have to worry about them retaliation for years to come. Hornqvist is another story. Nashville simply lacks the resources. They dumped Arnott to give themselves some flexibility, but they also have to worry about Suter and Webber. Bergfors is another guy in this category.
As I understand it the Ducks are a little light in the wallet these days. They could retaliate down the line, but what are you going to do? Ryan is a LW that would fit on Kopitar's wing for 5-10 years. You don't get a chance to fill that big of a hole every day.

Neal or Hornqvist are secondary, but viable options in my opinion. I wouldn't mind seeing the Kings stick it to Dallas. I don't like Neal's game though anywhere near as much as Ryan's and with the overpayment in terms of dollars and cap hit that is involved in one of these deals getting the best player you can is important.

I'm not really interested in Bergfors, since he is RW.

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07-29-2010, 01:01 PM
  #25
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Screw the offersheet and just trade Johnson for Ryan. If you feel confident that Clifford can come in and replace Simmonds then you are able to move him in a deal as well. I'm not comfortable with offersheets.

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