Wow, talk about some optimism in this thread. Like every off-season. Not everyone will have a career year and Anisimov sure as hell won't score more goals than MZA.
Gaborik - 45 - He should deliver, bar injury, which is certainly a possibility. I believe MZA, Prospal and Frolov can carry the team offensively during short stints though.
Frolov - 24 - He should also deliver, especially with PP time.
MZA - 20 - I am confident his rookie season will be a success. Wild card. Can produce more, despite this team. His problem isn't skill nor mentality, but stamina. Can he stay free from the ghost of inconsistency, which has so many victims on its mind?
Callahan - 20 - He should produce as usual. Now one of the pillars on this team.
Dubinsky - 19 - Dubi should be a consistent 20 goal scorer from now on.
Prospal - 18 - Slight drop from last year, still good at his salary.
White - 14 - White gets some center time, but disappoints.
Christensen - 12 - The C in Christensen is not equivalent with consistency.
Dreary - 10 - Even with pathetically low expectations, the legendary albatross will prove there is no bottom in the barrel of horrifically costly intangibles. The most expensive 3rd line center in the league, who sucks at playing center. So more correctly, he's the most expensive 3rd line left winger in the league.
Prust - 9 - Will be great in his role. Rangers fans like.
Del Zotto - 9 - Scores 9, but will be responsible for alot more in his zone. That's ok though.
Avery - 8 - Won't be re-signed when his contract is over, unless he realizes he's not worth millions. No consistency, no bite left in his bark.
Anisimov - 8 - Some say he'll score about 18. I say reduce that by 10. Might change with more ice time, but I'd say he's not good enough.
Staal - 7 - He scores his share at his role.
Girardi - 4 - His 2 year cold streak will be a 3 year cold streak (which proves to not be a cold streak, but his now overpriced level).
Gilroy - 3 - Will wander between AHL and NHL with McDonaugh?
Rozsival - 3 - His drop from his peak will prove to be constant without Jagr. Will look like Malik during stretches and only look older.
Boyle - 2 - AHL/NHL season for him.
McDonaugh - 1 - Will have a hard time breaking in.
Dreaden - 1 - Our GM is too stubborn to admit his perhaps biggest mistake in his career. At the cost of the team. Will win nothing but "The worst contract in the league" awards.
Which is about 224 goals. Which even at these projections feel like a stretch, considering this team's 5 year tradition at sucking offensively (and defensively).
Add in like 4 goals from random call ups covering injuries and you're looking at a team that will net about 264 goals. By pure coincidence that matches the amount of offense the Blackhawks produced last year.
I know these players and have my expectations, but am I being overly optimistic? Is it really that hard to believe that each of these players cant score my predicted amount of goals? I don't think I made any crazy predictions. The most questionable is MZA, and even if he busts completely this is still a strong offensive team on paper in my mind.
Serious question, who did I overrate in terms of their production next season?
And how many goals are we gonna score next year by your count?
Edit: with MDZ added its even more.
First of all, you counted all of the forwards you made predictions for to arrive at your 260, but being that these are clearly predictions for 82 games, you can't do that, because you included two extra forwards who won't be playing 82 games.
I also don't think these are "safe" predictions at all.
That's 206 without MZA. If MZA plays, someone else doesn't, so he doesn't change the equation dramatically. Sure, there's room for improvement for a lot of players but, first, you said safe predictions and second, I think it's highly unrealistic to expect more than a handful of guys to do any better than this and that you always have to expect somebody to be injured/disappoint big time, somewhere in the lineup. For example, if Gaborik did miss 35 games, it's a possibility nobody on this team would break 30 goals, unless Frolov/Dubinsky stepped up big with extra ice time. 260+ is a fantasy. I'm not saying 206 isn't fantastically low, but that's the "safe" expectation, IMO. I see us right around 225... perfectly par for our mediocre team.
I'm an extreme pessimist myself. Ask anyone I watch games with regularly (family and friends), and I'm so negative all game long and even if they have a 3-goal lead I'll say "they'll blow it".
But you think Anisimov is going to score 4 less goals?
Drury, Avery, Boyle, Staal, Girardi, Gilroy, Prospal are all scoring less goals this season, but MZA is scoring 20?
Hey, to each his own, but....
Well, some are scoring less, some produces about the same this season. It's about ice time, performance and post-out instead of post-in. Dreary is one year older and will look like his prime was 10 years ago, costing the franchise about $1 million a goal. He shouldn't receive PP time. Avery is effectively neutered once again by Torts and is a shadow of his former self. His good hands are gone and look like he has switched them with Chris Higgins. Boyle will barely play and travel between AHL/NHL. Anisimov will play in a diminished role, with the arrival of White possibly killing his ice time even more than last year.
Staal, Girardi and Prospal might score 1-2 goals more or 1-2 less, it's all within the statistical margins of error. The main point is their production stays the same.
I project MZA at 20, because he's a better offensive player than any other forward on the team, but Gaborik & Frolov (I expect Frolov to produce like Zherdev did, but with more assists if he's on the 1st line). I've seen enough of him - and the players on this team - to come with such a statement. Those 3 have (at least I think Frolov has it, I admittedly haven't seen enough of him) that precious ice vision you cannot teach. In terms of hockey intelligence, I would again put him in the top 3 on the team. He'll receive alot of ice time, probably on the 2nd line and sometimes the 1st (he can play both wings), both ES and on the PP (weak side and point). I would put MZA on the point if he plays with Gaborik's line and on the right side for one timers if he's on the 2nd PP unit. He should net at least 20 if that's the scenario.
It counts on our PP though. If it sucks, MZA will struggle reaching 20, just as many other will suffer offensively if such is the case. His offensive talent should compensate some on ES. We should have the talent and knowledge to have a successful PP, we have the offensive players we need for at least one successful PP unit. However, since this is the Rangers offense and PP we're talking about, anything can and historically has gone wrong (since the lockout).
There are sure alot of people who believe dubinsky will score 25+ on the scoreboard and i just don't see it, I see callahan doing it but dubinsky is a longshot to me for whatever reason, Maybe its because everyone says "next year he'll be a true power forward" and none of that has happened at all.
AHA! The always effective "for whatever reason" rationale. I figure he'll have around 20-25 depending on how healthy his season is. I'm basing that on the fact that he has already done it and improves to some extent each season. And he's getting to the age where physical and mental start to come together for a lot of developing forwards.
But even still, when he hits that 25 g, 50 point mark, it won't be enough for several fans "for whatever reason". To them it'll be a good idea to trade him while his stock is high. Book it! Sorry. Wrong thread.
id avatar bet 250 though for sure. no way we score that many.
Haha, 250 is pushing it as much as 205 LOL.
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