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Nashville still needs... - What do you think the final piece to the roster is?

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Old
08-08-2010, 01:54 PM
  #126
glenngineer
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Don't know if I mentioned this but a PP coach that can get results would be the final piece for me.

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08-08-2010, 02:12 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Don't know if I mentioned this but a PP coach that can get results would be the final piece for me.
Amen

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08-08-2010, 02:30 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Don't know if I mentioned this but a PP coach that can get results would be the final piece for me.
I'm not so sure it was as clear cut as blaming the PP coach. The team went 1 for 27 over the first 8 games then finished 46 for 259, or 17.76% over the last 74. The PP actually performed at a respectable rate for the vast majority of the season with a terrible start and slow finish bookending the middle.

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08-08-2010, 02:59 PM
  #129
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I'm more worried about the PK. How does the Nashville Predators have the #28 PK in the NHL?

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08-08-2010, 03:01 PM
  #130
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
I'm not so sure it was as clear cut as blaming the PP coach. The team went 1 for 27 over the first 8 games then finished 46 for 259, or 17.76% over the last 74. The PP actually performed at a respectable rate for the vast majority of the season with a terrible start and slow finish bookending the middle.
You forgot to mention our stellar stats in the playoffs. Trotz mentioned at the SOTU that he middle part of the season he felt the PP was doing fine but the first 20 and last 20 were not where they needed to be.

I have watched the PP enough to see a pattern in where the players are putting themselves and I cannot tell you how many times I've seen three guys below the goal line, one behind the net and one to each side with two guys at the point. It makes a breakout against us easy and also doesn't open passing lanes and is easy to defend. I just don't see how it's not a coaching thing when I see the same thing happen with different players year after year.

I'm not saying it's all on the coach but it is the coaches responsibility to get results. Trotz said he was taking over the PP duties this year. We'll see if it does any good.

Trotz is good at teaching and coaching a sound two way game but I think the offense lacks creativity at times and unless we get a coach in here that can help with that, I just don't see it getting any better any time soon unless guys like Wilson and other young guys provide a spark of sorts.

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08-08-2010, 03:01 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
I'm more worried about the PK. How does the Nashville Predators have the #28 PK in the NHL?
Inability to win faceoffs on the PK.

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08-08-2010, 03:12 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
You forgot to mention our stellar stats in the playoffs. Trotz mentioned at the SOTU that he middle part of the season he felt the PP was doing fine but the first 20 and last 20 were not where they needed to be.

I have watched the PP enough to see a pattern in where the players are putting themselves and I cannot tell you how many times I've seen three guys below the goal line, one behind the net and one to each side with two guys at the point. It makes a breakout against us easy and also doesn't open passing lanes and is easy to defend. I just don't see how it's not a coaching thing when I see the same thing happen with different players year after year.

I'm not saying it's all on the coach but it is the coaches responsibility to get results. Trotz said he was taking over the PP duties this year. We'll see if it does any good.

Trotz is good at teaching and coaching a sound two way game but I think the offense lacks creativity at times and unless we get a coach in here that can help with that, I just don't see it getting any better any time soon unless guys like Wilson and other young guys provide a spark of sorts.
The departure of Arnott and his stand in just one spot hoping for the clean pass to onetime can't negatively impact the PP. Look at the personnel we used ... Arnott, the stationary ... Weber on the point ... and three guys looking to feed one of those two. Right there was the biggest problem with the PP for the past two seasons. We went away from using players with mobility to a group of guys looking for a set shot every time.

How much did Arnott's soft melon and Horqvist's injury hurt the down the stretch PP numbers? They combined for two PP goals from 7 March on.

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08-08-2010, 05:36 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
The departure of Arnott and his stand in just one spot hoping for the clean pass to onetime can't negatively impact the PP. Look at the personnel we used ... Arnott, the stationary ... Weber on the point ... and three guys looking to feed one of those two. Right there was the biggest problem with the PP for the past two seasons. We went away from using players with mobility to a group of guys looking for a set shot every time.

How much did Arnott's soft melon and Horqvist's injury hurt the down the stretch PP numbers? They combined for two PP goals from 7 March on.
Really? You're gonna use Hornqvist's injury as an excuse here? He missed one game at the end of the season so I'm not buying that one. The playoff PP I can give you as he wasn't out there but to score one goal in 26/27 chances is still pretty pathetic. No way around that and if one player determines the fate of your PP, there are other major issues there.

It'll be interesting to see how the additions of Lombardi and SK help or hurt the PP and the additional time that Wilson should see out there.

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08-08-2010, 05:47 PM
  #134
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Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
I'm more worried about the PK. How does the Nashville Predators have the #28 PK in the NHL?
Because the lynch pins in our penalty kill went to San Jose and Phoenix, respectively.

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08-08-2010, 06:24 PM
  #135
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another problem with the powerplay was that they could never score the important goals...game tying or game winning. Just like in the playoffs not only could they not score they gave up a SH goal at the worst time ever.

So for me, throwing out percentages that are skewed by excuses doesn't even come close to painting the true picture of the effectiveness (or lack there of) of the pp. Especially during the playoffs when it really matters.

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08-08-2010, 07:50 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Really? You're gonna use Hornqvist's injury as an excuse here? He missed one game at the end of the season so I'm not buying that one. The playoff PP I can give you as he wasn't out there but to score one goal in 26/27 chances is still pretty pathetic. No way around that and if one player determines the fate of your PP, there are other major issues there.

It'll be interesting to see how the additions of Lombardi and SK help or hurt the PP and the additional time that Wilson should see out there.

Watch Jeopardy and recognize the form of a question.

If the entire issue was the coaching, which remained constant, explain how for about 3/4 of the season the converted at an 18% conversion rate.

The difference in where the Preds finished and midpoint in the league is the difference in 2ppg in 11 chances and 2ppg in 12 chances.

Just looked at another area ... faceoffs. Arnott below 50% on the PP. Legwand barely at 50% (50 of 99) on the PP.

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08-08-2010, 08:04 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
Watch Jeopardy and recognize the form of a question.

If the entire issue was the coaching, which remained constant, explain how for about 3/4 of the season the converted at an 18% conversion rate.

The difference in where the Preds finished and midpoint in the league is the difference in 2ppg in 11 chances and 2ppg in 12 chances.

Just looked at another area ... faceoffs. Arnott below 50% on the PP. Legwand barely at 50% (50 of 99) on the PP.
Does an 18% conversion rate tell the whole story though? I remember stretches of games where we couldn't score on the PP and then there were games where I recall us getting 2 or 3 in a game so going 2 for 5 in a game or 3 of 7 is going to inflate the stats as well.

As mentioned above, the inability to score PP goals at big times in games has killed us over the years. 4 minutes on fresh ice in game 5 this year is a prime example. Game 4 with Chicago up 1-0 and us on a 5 on 3 and not scoring killed us. I'm not expecting 25% with this group by any means but big goals in big situations is something we sorely lack. Converting at 4% in the playoffs is unacceptable anyway you look at it. 2 more PP goals in that series and it could go our way.

The faceoff problem is another major issue. If you can't win the puck, you don't get the easy setups like Chicago did 3 times against us scoring PP goals in under 15 seconds on 3 different occasions. Even if we draw the puck back to the point, our guys rarely shoot it towards the net right away which allows the other team to set up.

I'd love to go back and see the PP results on a game per game basis and really analyze this because we can go back and forth on this and never come to any conclusion.

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08-08-2010, 08:33 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Does an 18% conversion rate tell the whole story though? I remember stretches of games where we couldn't score on the PP and then there were games where I recall us getting 2 or 3 in a game so going 2 for 5 in a game or 3 of 7 is going to inflate the stats as well.

As mentioned above, the inability to score PP goals at big times in games has killed us over the years. 4 minutes on fresh ice in game 5 this year is a prime example. Game 4 with Chicago up 1-0 and us on a 5 on 3 and not scoring killed us. I'm not expecting 25% with this group by any means but big goals in big situations is something we sorely lack. Converting at 4% in the playoffs is unacceptable anyway you look at it. 2 more PP goals in that series and it could go our way.

The faceoff problem is another major issue. If you can't win the puck, you don't get the easy setups like Chicago did 3 times against us scoring PP goals in under 15 seconds on 3 different occasions. Even if we draw the puck back to the point, our guys rarely shoot it towards the net right away which allows the other team to set up.

I'd love to go back and see the PP results on a game per game basis and really analyze this because we can go back and forth on this and never come to any conclusion.
The thing is that every team goes through stretches where they don't score for games on end then get a couple in a short period of time. That included the Caps and their 25% overall conversion for the season. For the Preds, there were really only two anomalous parts of the season, games 2-8 (we went 1 for 4 in Dallas) and the last 10-15 games of the season.

The PP results are on each and every game summary if you want to go through 82 scoresheets. There's a reason why I calculated from after game 8 through wherever the team was during the season ... it was a hell of a lot easier.

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08-08-2010, 09:11 PM
  #139
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I did the research and here it is.

g 1-10 g 11-20 g 21-30 g 31-40 g 41-50 g 51-60 g 61-70 g 71-80 g 81-82
3 for 36 8 for 39 9 for 41 3 for 34 6 for 31 8 for 39 8 for 31 1 for 27 1 for 6
8.30% 20.50% 21.90% 8.80% 19.40% 20.50% 25.80% 3.70% 16.70%

0 goals 0 goals 0 goals 0 goals 0 goals 0 goals 0 goals 0 goals 0 goals
8 3 5 7 6 4 2 9 1

1 goals 1 goals 1 goals 1 goals 1 goals 1 goals 1 goals 1 goals 1 goals
1 6 1 3 2 5 6 1 1

2 goals 2 goals 2 goals 2 goals 2 goals 2 goals 2 goals 2 goals 2 goals
1 1 4 0 2 0 1 0 0

3 goals 3 goals 3 goals 3 goals 3 goals 3 goals 3 goals 3 goals 3 goals
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

g 1-41 % g 42-82 % Season Total
15.10% 18.20% 16.50%

We had 46 games with no PP goals.
We had 25 games with 1 PP goal.
We had 9 games with 2 PP goals.
We had 1 game with 3 PP goals.
There was one game we didn't get on the PP.

We had streaks of 7,2,5,2,4,2,4,4 and 9 games where we didn't score a goal at all.
We had streaks of 6,2,4,8,4 where we scored at least one goal.

A stretch of games where the stats feel extremely skewed to me is games 21-30. We had 5 games where we didn't score. We had one game of one goal and 4 games with two goals for a percentage of 21.9%. While the percentage looks great, it certainly doesn't give the full spectrum that the PP failed in half of their games.

On the other hand, games 61-70 show great balance in that we scored in 7 games. We scored once in six of those and twice in one of those. 2 games we didn't score and other tenth game we didn't get a PP chance. That percentage really is a true reading of the PP for those 10 games.

The other stretch of games that were good were games 51-60 where we had 5 one goal games and 1 three goal game while getting blanked in 4 of those games for a percentage of 20.5%. Once again, there was balance in that stretch of games.

So for about 20 games we did really well from 51-70.

Games 11-20 were well balance as well in that we scored in 7 of the games and got blanked 3 times.

Games 41-50 percentage looks good but we got blanked in 6 of those games while scoring 2 in 2 games and getting 1 in 2 other games. We didn't have a ton of chances so the 19.4% looks good but getting shut out in 6 games isn't that great but to the teams defense, there was only one game we were blanked in that we had more than 3 chances, all the rest were either 2 or 1 PP chances in those games. So that stretch is probably pretty accurate as well after typing this out.

So realistically, we had about 40 games that were true representations of the PP and it doing well while the other 40 games were clearly unacceptable.

In 5 separate 10 game stretches, we went 5 or more games where we didn't score a goal. We also had two four game stretches where we didn't score that sandwiched a 1 for 5 performance.

So in taking the 18.1% that you threw out there earlier, I have a hard time buying that after game 8 that we were a good PP team for the rest of the season. For what it's worth, we closed with a 2 for 33 stretch that then went into the playoffs for a 1 for 26 stretch which was 3 goals in 59 chances. Not good at all.

Your turn to tear the stats apart.

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08-08-2010, 09:13 PM
  #140
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Sorry for the stats coming out looking weird. It looked good when I typed it out and when I go to fix it it looks right. I think you get the idea though. If I only knew how to do a spread sheet on here I'd just show you the one I did.

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08-08-2010, 09:43 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Sorry for the stats coming out looking weird. It looked good when I typed it out and when I go to fix it it looks right. I think you get the idea though. If I only knew how to do a spread sheet on here I'd just show you the one I did.
Now the fun part. Do the same analysis on the other teams and notice the same 4 and 5 game streaks without a ppg. Even those are skewed ... do you want to count a game with one opportunity that doesn't go the full two minutes the same as a game where the team goes 0 for 5 with 10mins of pp time? The NHL rankings are simply goals / PP opportunities without any regard for time. A one second PP counts the same as a 4 minute in the league's percentage calculation.

On average the team spent 5.6mins 5-on-4 (19th in the league) ... 5.8 total on the PP ger game.

For the season the team scored right at 5 goals per 60mins of 5-on-4 time which was next to last in the league (1 goal per six full 2 minute minor opportunities) ... the midpoint was 6.1 goals/60mins of 5-on-4.

The team was 2nd in goals per 60mins of 5-on-3 and 7th in goals/60 of 4-on-3. The team was mid pack in shots/60 of pp time which then gets into the next level of discussion as to quality of shots and everything else.

For comparison, Calgary scored 1 more goal 5-on-4 than we did while spending 16 fewer minutes than us in that situation. Overall, they had a lower conversion percentage.

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08-08-2010, 09:50 PM
  #142
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Now the fun part. Do the same analysis on the other teams and notice the same 4 and 5 game streaks without a ppg. Even those are skewed ... do you want to count a game with one opportunity that doesn't go the full two minutes the same as a game where the team goes 0 for 5 with 10mins of pp time? The NHL rankings are simply goals / PP opportunities without any regard for time. A one second PP counts the same as a 4 minute in the league's percentage calculation.

On average the team spent 5.6mins 5-on-4 (19th in the league) ... 5.8 total on the PP ger game.

For the season the team scored right at 5 goals per 60mins of 5-on-4 time which was next to last in the league (1 goal per six full 2 minute minor opportunities) ... the midpoint was 6.1 goals/60mins of 5-on-4.

The team was 2nd in goals per 60mins of 5-on-3 and 7th in goals/60 of 4-on-3. The team was mid pack in shots/60 of pp time which then gets into the next level of discussion as to quality of shots and everything else.

For comparison, Calgary scored 1 more goal 5-on-4 than we did while spending 16 fewer minutes than us in that situation. Overall, they had a lower conversion percentage.
I'll let you do the minutes per game on the PP stuff. I've got to fly out in the morning and still need to pack. This is certainly fun to do though in a weird sort of way.

And seriously, we can rip this apart any way we want to prove our point but at the end of the day, the PP needs to get better for us to get to the next round in the playoffs.

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08-09-2010, 09:13 AM
  #143
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
I'm not so sure it was as clear cut as blaming the PP coach. The team went 1 for 27 over the first 8 games then finished 46 for 259, or 17.76% over the last 74. The PP actually performed at a respectable rate for the vast majority of the season with a terrible start and slow finish bookending the middle.
dont forget that the PP was 0-for the whole farking playoffs. I think thats why everyone is so upset about it, not the regular season

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08-09-2010, 09:31 AM
  #144
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I'm pretty pleased with the roster as it stands. The next big piece of the puzzle, to me, is to get the remaining RFA players signed and then work out the extension for Weber. Getting him signed to a long-term deal for a reasonable dollar amount will go a long way toward making me feel confident that there will be a solid team in Nashville for the next several years.

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08-09-2010, 12:05 PM
  #145
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
I'll let you do the minutes per game on the PP stuff. I've got to fly out in the morning and still need to pack. This is certainly fun to do though in a weird sort of way.

And seriously, we can rip this apart any way we want to prove our point but at the end of the day, the PP needs to get better for us to get to the next round in the playoffs.
I should have a spreadsheet done up today. After the first 9 games, the Preds had one 5v4 goal in just under 59 mins of time .... that ratio quintupled by the end of the season.

The same coaching staff that salvaged the regular season had a similar impact on the PP.

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08-09-2010, 12:07 PM
  #146
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dont forget that the PP was 0-for the whole farking playoffs. I think thats why everyone is so upset about it, not the regular season

look at the caps and sabres

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08-09-2010, 12:15 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Sorry for the stats coming out looking weird. It looked good when I typed it out and when I go to fix it it looks right. I think you get the idea though. If I only knew how to do a spread sheet on here I'd just show you the one I did.
You don't need a spreadsheet, glenn. Type everything that you want to be in a table in Notepad, with everything lined up the way you want it. Then in your post, type

code in []

Then paste in your stuff from Notepad

and end with

/code in []

Presto - nice lined up columns.

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08-09-2010, 01:31 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by sighthndlady View Post
You don't need a spreadsheet, glenn. Type everything that you want to be in a table in Notepad, with everything lined up the way you want it. Then in your post, type

code in []

Then paste in your stuff from Notepad

and end with

/code in []

Presto - nice lined up columns.
Actually, I didn't know that's how you did it until today, but...we have a button for "code" tags in the posting screen.

The other way to do it would be to cut and paste your text from Notepad into the screen, then hit control-a to highlight it all and press the "#" button located to the right of the "quote" button. That will wrap the entire section in "code" tags for you too...

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08-09-2010, 01:36 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by 101st_fan View Post
look at the caps and sabres
doesnt matter. we were one PP goal on a 5 minute PP away from changing the whole postseason and possibly the future of the franchise. you arent going to get anyone to be rational or logical about it, including me.

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08-09-2010, 01:55 PM
  #150
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Is notepad a PC thing? I'm on a mac.

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