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Old
08-15-2010, 02:52 PM
  #1
Anton Dubinchuk
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Top Prospect Rankings

Can't wait till the new ones come out; the current ones are in need of a severe update. Boychuk as the 15th best prospect in hockey? Gimme a break. Now that they seem to be updating each individual team's prospect pages, they HAVE to do the individuals... Plus, with Hall and Seguin now drafted, I bet both supplant Pietrangelo as #1.

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08-15-2010, 09:37 PM
  #2
KILLger
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...and I'm interested to see where Skinner will be slotted.

Or McBain for that matter.

The team as a whole should be more highly regarded, prospect wise... too!

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08-15-2010, 10:16 PM
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DaveG
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well there should be at least 3 in the top 50, possibly two top 25 between Skinner and McBain. Boychuk should be somewhere in the 30s. This is all guess work on my part though.

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08-15-2010, 10:30 PM
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Anton Dubinchuk
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Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
well there should be at least 3 in the top 50, possibly two top 25 between Skinner and McBain. Boychuk should be somewhere in the 30s. This is all guess work on my part though.
I'm honestly not sure Boychuk should even be in the top 50...

When you think about it, if prospects were divided evenly (I understand they aren't, bear with me), the top 30 prospects on this list would be the top prospect from every team. This mean that everyone in the top 30 is considered at the level of SOME organization top prospect. If Skinner and McBain are both in the top 30, that means they're both at the level of a "top" prospect. Being in the top 50 means you're at the level of a typical #2 prospect in an organization. Honestly, I'm not sure Boychuk right now is at the level of an organization's #2. He fits as our #3, yes, and I understand we're considered to have an above average prospect pool, but he's NOT a #2 prospect at this point.

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08-15-2010, 11:06 PM
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Brock Anton
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^^What did Zach Boychuk do to you? He is still a Top 50 NHL prospect, easily.

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08-15-2010, 11:27 PM
  #6
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Originally Posted by Jgusta21 View Post
I'm honestly not sure Boychuk should even be in the top 50...

When you think about it, if prospects were divided evenly (I understand they aren't, bear with me), the top 30 prospects on this list would be the top prospect from every team. This mean that everyone in the top 30 is considered at the level of SOME organization top prospect. If Skinner and McBain are both in the top 30, that means they're both at the level of a "top" prospect. Being in the top 50 means you're at the level of a typical #2 prospect in an organization. Honestly, I'm not sure Boychuk right now is at the level of an organization's #2. He fits as our #3, yes, and I understand we're considered to have an above average prospect pool, but he's NOT a #2 prospect at this point.
This makes no sense... Some organizations' 3rd and 4th prospects are better than some teams' top 1-3 prospects, so even if you're the 3rd or 4th best prospect on your team you can still technically be a top 50 prospect.

Boychuk is only 20 years old and has already cracked into the NHL while showing flashes of promise. He's not as highly regarded anymore but he's not that bad. Pegging him as a top 50 prospect isn't really out of the question. All the prospects who haven't played a pro game could just as easily struggle when they get there like Boychuk did at times last season, and then be written off as not a top prospect because of it. That's why I don't really even put much stock into rankings that have guys who are playing pro with guys still in juniors/college.

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08-16-2010, 11:36 AM
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I see what he's saying, though -- depending on the person writing the rankings, one could make a case for a bunch of other prospects ahead of Boychuk. Not sure I'd drop him all the way out of the top 50, but he's definitely falling and that's a disappointing sign.

But Erik Stall is right, looking back at old prospect rankings puts the whole game into perspective. They really don't mean much.

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08-16-2010, 02:14 PM
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Anton Dubinchuk
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I said I'm not SURE he's in the top 50...

I understand your point, but the way I see it the average score of the top 30 is the average score of an organization's top prospect. Boychuk is definitely no longer a top prospect, so he shouldn't be in the top 30. After that, if you're willing to consider Boychuk an upper 2/3's #2 prospect, he SHOULD be in the top 50. Otherwise, he's out.

I personally think he should be in the 40's, but like I said, I'm not SURE he'll be there.

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08-16-2010, 02:23 PM
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DaveG
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thing with Boychuk is that, despite the fact that he's our #3 prospect, for some organizations he would be their #1 prospect.

Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago and Philly for sure

and quite possibily Minnesota, New Jersey, Dallas, Calgary (I'm not sold at all on Backlund) and Colorado, although a very significant part of Colorado is that most of their best prospects (aside from Shattenkirk) are now considered "graduated" after the way the team did things last year.

likewise there are some teams like LA that could very well have 4 prospects in the top 50 this season. It's not so much about where he ranks on our list in comparison to similarly ranked prospects on other teams lists, as it is where he would rank on other teams lists. And there's not a lot of difference between Boychuk and a lot of the other #1/2 prospects around the league. Which is what has me saying he'll probably be in the 30s, although it's hard to predict anything between 25 and 50 right after a draft.


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Old
08-16-2010, 02:36 PM
  #10
Anton Dubinchuk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
thing with Boychuk is that, despite the fact that he's our #3 prospect, for some organizations he would be their #1 prospect.

Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago and Philly for sure

and quite possibily Minnesota, New Jersey, Dallas, Calgary (I'm not sold at all on Backlund) and Colorado, although a very significant part of Colorado is that most of their best prospects (aside from Shattenkirk) are now considered "graduated" after the way the team did things last year.

likewise there are some teams like LA that could very well have 4 prospects in the top 50 this season. It's not so much about where he ranks on our list in comparison to similarly ranked prospects on other teams lists, as it is where he would rank on other teams lists. And there's not a lot of difference between Boychuk and a lot of the other #1/2 prospects around the league. Which is what has me saying he'll probably be in the 30s, although it's hard to predict anything between 25 and 50 right after a draft.
Well said, I agree. I'm not sure on Philly, is JVR considered graduated? If not, you've GOT to put him over Boychuk.

I agree with every you've said above. My point was just that if I'm ANY organization in the league right now, I'm VERY uncomfortable with Boychuk as my #1. As my #2, I'm not exactly thrilled, but I certainly think he fits there better than he does as a #1.

Also, if you're correct, and we DO have 3 prospects in the top 50, HOW do we not finish in the top 10 for organizational rankings?

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08-16-2010, 03:03 PM
  #11
DaveG
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I really don't see how the team can be outside the top 10 of the organizational rankings. Just no way that can happen at this point IMO. When guys like Sanguinetti and Nash don't even crack our top 5 that's saying a lot.

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08-16-2010, 03:25 PM
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One thing to remember is that the HF rankings NEVER allow for a player to skip a slot and be ranked higher than their contemporaries on the same team if they are more highly ranked on the player page. That is policy. So Skinner WILL be ranked behind McBain by virtue of Cory selecting McBain as the 1st overall prospect for the organization.

I would expect both to fall into the 20-25 range. Boychuk's prospects for making the list hinge only upon the aspect of HF that is reticent to change their opinion on a certain player once they've anointed him worthy. Montoya stayed on the list for ages. Jakub Kindl did too.

The order will be the same as it is on the Hurricanes page. They don't leap frog their own staff that way and never have.

I would probably put Boychuk in the 40-50 range, personally. Even with the step backwards last year, he's still a pretty good prospect. Much better than several teams can bring to the table, as Dave mentioned.

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08-16-2010, 11:24 PM
  #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveG View Post
thing with Boychuk is that, despite the fact that he's our #3 prospect, for some organizations he would be their #1 prospect.

Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago and Philly for sure

and quite possibily Minnesota, New Jersey, Dallas, Calgary (I'm not sold at all on Backlund) and Colorado, although a very significant part of Colorado is that most of their best prospects (aside from Shattenkirk) are now considered "graduated" after the way the team did things last year.

likewise there are some teams like LA that could very well have 4 prospects in the top 50 this season. It's not so much about where he ranks on our list in comparison to similarly ranked prospects on other teams lists, as it is where he would rank on other teams lists. And there's not a lot of difference between Boychuk and a lot of the other #1/2 prospects around the league. Which is what has me saying he'll probably be in the 30s, although it's hard to predict anything between 25 and 50 right after a draft.
I guess that's where we tend to disagree. Personally, I'd take Nyquist/Smith/Tatar, Olsen/Beach/Kruger, Tedenby/Josefson, Granlund and Elliot/Shattenkirk all before Boychuk. He's still a great prospect, but ever since he got drafted, I haven't seen anything from him that says first line winger.

It's all a matter of opinion, and if someone prefers a safe pick over the boom or bust, Boychuk certainly is in the discussion. But as you can see with my prefered prospect list, I personally like my prospects with a level of dynamic ability that can put them over the top, something Boychuk never had. But, going by the past bunch of top 50's, they seem to follow a common theme of household prospect names so I expect Boychuk to be there.


Last edited by NobodysFaulkButMine: 08-17-2010 at 12:15 AM.
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Old
08-17-2010, 03:45 AM
  #14
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i guess i just dont see last year as a step back for boychuk. i saw it as a step forward, and a typical one at that. i dont think my expectations were that high in the first place, to be honest. on the flip side i dont know if i dont put him up there with the ones jas mentioned. i think he is dynamic. i dont know if itll translate to production in the end, but we dont know that it will for tedenby or granlund either. they have the euro skill over him, but he has the north american background and a better understanding of how to fit in. there is no recipe for sure fire success. he needed a year in the minors, he may need two. i think he has the skill level, tenacity, and explosiveness to be at the very least a regular. i dont listen to daniels comments for anything other than what they were...a coach publicly calling out a player to light a fire under his ass. i dont always agree with that tactic, but it is what it is. he is young, and if anything a little immature as compared to bad attitude. ive seen it in his interviews, he isnt a rhode scholar - hes a hockey player, thats it. he comes off as young and dumb - happy go lucky. these are all kids in the end, and he just needs to grow up a little while figuring out his game and how to apply it. im sure this past year gave him a better idea of where he actually is and what he has to do to get to the next level. lets give this a year before we put a stamp on him.

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Old
08-17-2010, 08:14 AM
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Cory Lavalette
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Dunno if anyone saw this, but THN Yearbook has Bowman as the Canes’ No. 1 prospect, ahead of Skinner and McBain (Boychuk not eligible on theirs — think they go by Calder eligibility).

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08-17-2010, 08:34 AM
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Considering that we've already come to grips with how inexact and mostly pointless the process is that ranks one team's prospects, it seems sorta silly to have an argument about whether Boychuk is within the top 50 of all NHL prospects.

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08-17-2010, 08:35 AM
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Dunno if anyone saw this, but THN Yearbook has Bowman as the Canes’ No. 1 prospect, ahead of Skinner and McBain (Boychuk not eligible on theirs — think they go by Calder eligibility).
Well clearly they're just plain old wrong.

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08-17-2010, 10:39 AM
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That might make Bowman the most overrated prospect in the NHL

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Old
08-17-2010, 10:51 AM
  #19
Anton Dubinchuk
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Well clearly they're just plain old wrong.
^^^^^ Agreed.

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